Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Characterization of a highly biodiverse floodplain meadow using hyperspectral remote sensing within a plant functional trait framework

We assessed the potential for using optical functional types as effective markers to monitor changes in vegetation in floodplain meadows associated with changes in their local environment. Floodplain meadows are challenging ecosystems for monitoring and conservation because of their highly biodiverse nature. Our aim was to understand and explain spectral differences among key members of floodplain meadows and also characterize differences with respect to functional traits. The study was conducted on a typical floodplain meadow in UK (MG4-type, mesotrophic grassland type 4, according to British National Vegetation Classification). We compared two approaches to characterize floodplain communities using field spectroscopy. The first approach was sub-community based, in which we collected spectral signatures for species groupings indicating two distinct eco-hydrological conditions (dry and wet soil indicator species). The other approach was “species-specific”, in which we focused on the spectral reflectance of three key species found on the meadow. One herb species is a typical member of the MG4 floodplain meadow community, while the other two species, sedge and rush, represent wetland vegetation. We also monitored vegetation biophysical and functional properties as well as soil nutrients and ground water levels. We found that the vegetation classes representing meadow sub-communities could not be spectrally distinguished from each other, whereas the individual herb species was found to have a distinctly different spectral signature from the sedge and rush species. The spectral differences between these three species could be explained by their observed differences in plant biophysical parameters, as corroborated through radiative transfer model simulations. These parameters, such as leaf area index, leaf dry matter content, leaf water content, and specific leaf area, along with other functional parameters, such as maximum carboxylation capacity and leaf nitrogen content, also helped explain the species’ differences in functional dynamics. Groundwater level and soil nitrogen availability, which are important factors governing plant nutrient status, were also found to be significantly different for the herb/wetland species’ locations. The study concludes that spectrally distinguishable species, typical for a highly biodiverse site such as a floodplain meadow, could potentially be used as target species to monitor vegetation dynamics under changing environmental conditions.

Effect of cattle urine addition on the surface emissions and subsurface concentrations of greenhouse gases in a UK peat grassland

Grazing systems represent a substantial percentage of the global anthropogenic flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) as a result of nitrogen addition to the soil. The pool of available carbon that is added to the soil from livestock excreta also provides substrate for the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by soil microorganisms. A study into the production and emission of CO2, CH4 and N2O from cattle urine amended pasture was carried out on the Somerset Levels and Moors, UK over a three-month period. Urine-amended plots (50 g N m−2) were compared to control plots to which only water (12 mg N m−2) was applied. CO2 emission peaked at 5200 mg CO2 m−2 d−1 directly after application. CH4 flux decreased to −2000 μg CH4 m−2 d−1 two days after application; however, net CH4 flux was positive from urine treated plots and negative from control plots. N2O emission peaked at 88 mg N2O m−2 d−1 12 days after application. Subsurface CH4 and N2O concentrations were higher in the urine treated plots than the controls. There was no effect of treatment on subsurface CO2 concentrations. Subsurface N2O peaked at 500 ppm 12 days after and 1200 ppm 56 days after application. Subsurface NO3− concentration peaked at approximately 300 mg N kg dry soil−1 12 days after application. Results indicate that denitrification is the key driver for N2O release in peatlands and that this production is strongly related to rainfall events and water-table movement. N2O production at depth continued long after emissions were detected at the surface. Further understanding of the interaction between subsurface gas concentrations, surface emissions and soil hydrological conditions is required to successfully predict greenhouse gas production and emission.

Combined Pool/Bilateral Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Model for Day-Ahead Energy Markets

This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.

Biomonitoramento da qualidade da água e ações em educação ambiental em dois açudes da bacia hidrográfica Apodi-Mossoró, RN

Water scarcity is a reality for the inhabitants of the Brazilian semiarid region. The problem, in quantitative terms , is caused due to local climatic conditions due mostly to a water deficit. Qualitatively, results of multiple uses and resulting contamination by human activities. Eutrophication is presented as a threat to the sustainable use of water resources, in order to favor the predominance of dense populations of cyanobacteria, which can be potentially harmful to human health. The aim of this study is to understand the population dynamics of phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to assess water quality of reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros belonging to bacia Apodi Mossoró-RN . Water samples were collected monthly between October 2011 and May 2012 in reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros, in this latter , in Jan/12 we performed a diel profile . The abiotic variables obtained in the field and in the laboratory were: water temperature , dissolved oxygen , pH , turbidity , transparency , total nitrogen and total phosphorus . Phytoplankton samples were collected with a plankton net and bottle of Van dorn . Were performed : identification , quantification , calculation of biovolume , classification into functional groups and index calculation phytoplankton assembly ( Q ) , cyanotoxins were quantified by ELISA . Statistical analyzes supported the evaluation of the dynamics between biotic and abiotic factors. A questionnaire was conducted to examine the conceptions of the population, education professionals and students. The reservoir of Pau dos Ferros, shallow , turbid and eutrophic showed dominance of the functional group SN throughout the sample period . The phytoplankton biomass ranged from 20 to 70 mm ³ . L - 1, the lowest values coincided with the increase of the mixing zone and transparency, which contributed to the occurrence of a change in species composition phytoplankton . The application of the index Q proved relevant, the reservoir of Pau dos Ferros , depending on the species present , was classified ecologically as bad for almost the entire sample period . The reservoir Santa Cruz do Apodi showed low biomass ( 0.04 and 4.31 mm ³ . L - 1 ) and greater diversity in the phytoplankton composition . According to the index assembly (Q ), it showed moderate condition during most of the period influenced by different functional groups of typical meso- eutrophic environment (K S0, H1, C, F , J , E, D and N) . Associations of diatoms and green algae D and X1 succeeded populations of cyanobacteria in periods marked by greater instability in the system , caused by wind or rain. In summary , the occurrence of drought has a direct influence on the hydrological conditions of the reservoirs , in general, these events, reducing the reservoir level is directly related to decreased water quality and increased density of phytoplankton occurring predominance of cyanobacteria , the index Q reflected well to changes in phytoplankton composition , being a good indicator for biomonitoring of reservoirs in this study and survey of previous conceptions showed the need to work on environmental awareness for the preservation of water resources by conducting workshops for Environmental Education

Pb-210 and composition data of near-surface sediments and interstitial waters evidencing anthropogenic inputs in Amazon River mouth, Macapa, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of atypical rainfall on lotic zooplankton: comparing downstream of a reservoir and tributaries with free stretches

To contribute to the knowledge of lotic zooplankton from dammed and free stretches, we tested the hypothesis that the ecological attributes are different between these environments, which are subjected to several effects caused by different hydrological conditions. The study was carried out in the low Iguacu river, a large hydrographic basin in the south of Brasil. Two samplings were performed, one in the dry period (April/04) and the other in the atypical rainy period (July/04), in five stations downstream a large reservoir, and other 12 stations in four tributaries representing the upper, intermediate and low regions of each river. The observations suggest a clear spatial distribution of zooplankton in lotic stretches subjected or not to damming, mainly due to the effects of physical, chemical and biological variables. Furthermore, the atypical rainfall promoted alterations in community structure when compared to the dry period.

Condições hidrológicas de uma bacia hidrográfica com diferentes usos do solo na região de taquaritinga, SP

In areas where human activities, as agriculture, are developed land use contributes to physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water. This study aimed to identify physical and chemical variations of the water monitoring network in 4 first magnitude watersheds with different land use/occupation in the hydrographic basin of the Glori Farm Creek in the city of Taquaritinga, State of Sao Paulo, from February to July, 2005. The methodology consisted of weekly sample water collections to naalyze turbidity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and electric conductivity. The characterization of the hydrological conditions of the watersheds showed that agricultural activities, including the productive system of the sugarcane cultivation, have affected the quality of water resources.

Caracterização hídrica em função das condições de uso e manejo do solo na microbacia hidrográfica do córrego da Fazenda da Glória, Taquaritinga, S.P

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Produção Vegetal) - FCAV

Variação espaço-temporal do zooplâncton no estuário do rio Quatipuru-Pará

A partir da hipótese de que a salinidade influencia fortemente a comunidade zooplanctônica, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a influência deste fator sobre essa comunidade no estuário do rio Quatipuru, Estado do Pará. Foram realizadas amostragens zooplanctônicas e de variáveis físicas e químicas da água ao longo do estuário, contemplando diferentes faixas de salinidade. As coletas foram realizadas em marés vazantes e enchentes. Os resultados mostraram que este estuário possui uma variação temporal de características física, química e biológica. A salinidade, em especial, sofreu variações decorrentes das mudanças de marés, bem como da variação sazonal da pluviosidade. A salinidade variou de 1,4 a 33,5 ups no período seco e de 0 a 17,9 ups no período chuvoso. Esta amplitude de salinidade possibilitou determinar para área diferentes condições hidrológicas (limnética, oligohalina, meso-polihalina e euhalina). Foram identificados 48 taxa, destacando os Copepoda como o grupo mais importante em termos quali-quantitativos, sendo adultos de Parvocalanus crassirostris, Pseudodiaptomus richardi, Acartia tonsa, Acartia lilljeborgi, Paracalanus quasimodo, Euterpina acutifrons e copepoditos os principais responsáveis pela sua dominância. Mollusca foi o segundo grupo dominante, onde véligeres de gastrópodes representaram 95% do total. A densidade total do zooplancton variou entre 993, 9 e 13254,7 Ind. m^-3 no verão e entre 944, 3 e 35908,8 Ind. m^-3 no inverno. As maiores abundância em maio e novembro foram em ocasião de maré vazante e enchente, respectivamente. Os baixos valores de diversidade e equitabilidade encontrados na faixa zero na condição de enchente mostram o predomínio de determinado grupo sobre os demais (larvas de Gastropoda). A maior diversidade e uniformidade da comunidade zooplanctônica ocorreram no verão. A comunidade zooplanctônica respondeu as variações de salinidade com espécies adaptadas aos maiores valores de salinidade na porção inferior do estuário, no verão, assim como espécies adaptadas as condições de mixohalinização na porção mais a montante, em maio. A maior abundância de copepoditos esteve associada negativamente com a salinidade, demonstrando que as espécies que estão recrutando os copepoditos são mais estuarinas verdadeiras do que costeiras. As análises de agrupamento e de componentes principais revelou grupos definidos, distribuídos em diferentes faixas de salinidade, este parâmetro sozinho explicou 56% (p=0,028) da variação da fauna no estuário do rio Quatipuru. A distribuição dos organismos, de uma maneira geral, esteve de acordo com a hipótese de que a salinidade influencia fortemente a comunidade zooplanctônica no sistema estuarino de Quatipuru - Pará.

Clinical, biochemical and haemathological effects in Rhamdia quelen exposed to cypermethrin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variação espaço-temporal de atributos ecológicos da ictiofauna de um grande reservatório Neotropical

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV

Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture : Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya

Improvements in on-farm water and soil fertility management through water harvesting may prove key to up-grade smallholder farming systems in dry sub-humid and semi-arid sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The currently experienced yield levels are usually less than 1 t ha-1, i.e., 3-5 times lower than potential levels obtained by commercial farmers and researchers for similar agro-hydrological conditions. The low yield levels are ascribed to the poor crop water availability due to variable rainfall, losses in on-farm water balance and inherently low soil nutrient levels. To meet an increased food demand with less use of water and land in the region, requires farming systems that provide more yields per water unit and/or land area in the future. This thesis presents the results of a project on water harvesting system aiming to upgrade currently practised water management for maize (Zea mays, L.) in semi-arid SSA. The objectives were to a) quantify dry spell occurrence and potential impact in currently practised small-holder grain production systems, b) test agro-hydrological viability and compare maize yields in an on-farm experiment using combinations supplemental irrigation (SI) and fertilizers for maize, and c) estimate long-term changes in water balance and grain yields of a system with SI compared to farmers currently practised in-situ water harvesting. Water balance changes and crop growth were simulated in a 20-year perspective with models MAIZE1&2. Dry spell analyses showed that potentially yield-limiting dry spells occur at least 75% of seasons for 2 locations in semi-arid East Africa during a 20-year period. Dry spell occurrence was more frequent for crop cultivated on soil with low water-holding capacity than on high water-holding capacity. The analysis indicated large on-farm water losses as deep percolation and run-off during seasons despite seasonal crop water deficits. An on-farm experiment was set up during 1998-2001 in Machakos district, semi-arid Kenya. Surface run-off was collected and stored in a 300m3 earth dam. Gravity-fed supplemental irrigation was carried out to a maize field downstream of the dam. Combinations of no irrigation (NI), SI and 3 levels of N fertilizers (0, 30, 80 kg N ha-1) were applied. Over 5 seasons with rainfall ranging from 200 to 550 mm, the crop with SI and low nitrogen fertilizer gave 40% higher yields (**) than the farmers’ conventional in-situ water harvesting system. Adding only SI or only low nitrogen did not result in significantly different yields. Accounting for actual ability of a storage system and SI to mitigate dry spells, it was estimated that a farmer would make economic returns (after deduction of household consumption) between year 2-7 after investment in dam construction depending on dam sealant and labour cost used. Simulating maize growth and site water balance in a system of maize with SI increased annual grain yield with 35 % as a result of timely applications of SI. Field water balance changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and deep percolation were insignificant with SI, although the absolute amount of ETa increased with 30 mm y-1 for crop with SI compared to NI. The dam water balance showed 30% productive outtake as SI of harvested water. Large losses due to seepage and spill-flow occurred from the dam. Water productivity (WP, of ETa) for maize with SI was on average 1 796 m3 per ton grain, and for maize without SI 2 254 m3 per ton grain, i.e, a decerase of WP with 25%. The water harvesting system for supplemental irrigation of maize was shown to be both biophysically and economically viable. However, adoption by farmers will depend on other factors, including investment capacity, know-how and legislative possibilities. Viability of increased water harvesting implementation in a catchment scale needs to be assessed so that other down-stream uses of water remains uncompromised.

Epi- and mesopelagic fishes, acoustic data, and SST images collected off Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, and Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, during cruise "La Bocaina 04-97"

[ES]Durante la campaña La Bocaina 0497 se llevaron a cabo una serie de 14 lances con una red de arrastre pelágico de tipo comercial entre 20 y 700 m. de profundidad y una porspección acústica con una ecosonda SIMRAD EK-500 en aguas neríticas y oceánicas adyacentes a Lanzarote, Fuerteventura y Gran Canaria. Además se obtuvieron imágenes SST para obtener información de las condiciones hidrológicas en el área de estudio. Los resultados mostraron que la caballa Scomber japonicus presentaba gran variabilidad espacial en biomasa entre las diferentes localidades muestreadas.