Mining process risks and resource profiles

This research contributes novel techniques for identifying and evaluating business process risks and analysing human resource behaviour. The developed techniques use predefined indicators to identify process risks in individual process instances, evaluate overall process risk, predict process outcomes and analyse human resource behaviour based on the analysis of information about process executions recorded in event logs by information systems. The results of this research can help managers to more accurately evaluate the risk exposure of their business processes, to more objectively evaluate the performance of their employees, and to identify opportunities for improvement of resource and process performance.

Pitfalls and benefits of involving industry in fisheries research: A case study of the live reef fish industry in Queensland, Australia

Including collaboration with industry members as an integral part of research activities is a relatively new approach to fisheries research. Earlier approaches to involving fishers in research usually involved compulsory accommodations of research, such as through compulsory observer programs, in which fishers were seen as subjects of rather than participants in research. This new approach brings with it significant potential benefits but also some unique issues both for the researchers and the participating industry members. In this paper we describe a research project involving the Queensland Coral Reef Finfish Fishery that originated from industry and community concerns about changes in marketing practices in an established commercial line fishery. A key aspect of this project was industry collaboration in all stages of the research, from formulation of objectives to assistance with interpretation of results. We discuss this research as a case study of some of the issues raised by collaboration between industry and research groups in fisheries research and the potential pitfalls and benefits of such collaborations for all parties. A dedicated liaison and extension strategy was a key element in the project to develop and maintain the relationships between fishers and researchers that were fundamental to the success of the collaboration. A major research benefit of the approach was the provision of information not available from other sources: 300 days of direct and unimpeded observation of commercial fishing by researchers; detailed catch and effort records from a further 126 fishing trips; and 53 interviews completed with fishers. Fishers also provided extensive operational information about the fishery as well as ongoing support for subsequent research projects. The time and resources required to complete the research in this consultative framework were greater than for more traditional, researcher-centric fisheries research, but the benefits gained far outweighed the costs.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Climate Change - Risks and Opportunities for the Custard Apple Industry

Climate affects the custard apple industry in a range of ways through impacts on growth, disease risk, fruit set and industry location. Climates in Australia are influenced by surrounding oceans, and are very variable from year to year. However, amidst this variability there are significant trends, with Australian annual mean temperatures increasing since 1910, and particularly since 1950, with night-time temperatures increasing faster (0.11oC/decade) than daytime temperatures (0.06oC/decade). These temperature increases and other climate changes are expected to continue as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with ongoing impacts on the custard apple industry. Five sites were chosen to assess possible future climate changes : Mareeba, Yeppoon, Bundaberg, Nambour and Lismore, these sites representing the extent of the majority of custard apple production in eastern Australia. A fifth site (Coffs Harbour) was selected as it is south of the current production regions. A mean warming of 0.8 to 1.2oC is anticipated over most of these sites by the year 2030, relative to 1990. This paper assesses the potential effects of climate change on custard apple production, and suggests strategies for adaptation.

Quantitative trait loci detection and benefits from marker-assisted selection in dairy cattle

Knowing the chromosomal areas or actual genes affecting the traits under selection would add more information to be used in the selection decisions which would potentially lead to higher genetic response. The first objective of this study was to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting economically important traits in the Finnish Ayrshire population. The second objective was to investigate the effects of using QTL information in marker-assisted selection (MAS) on the genetic response and the linkage disequilibrium between the different parts of the genome. Whole genome scans were carried out on a grand-daughter design with 12 half-sib families and a total of 493 sons. Twelve different traits were studied: milk yield, protein yield, protein content, fat yield, fat content, somatic cell score (SCS), mastitis treatments, other veterinary treatments, days open, fertility treatments, non-return rate, and calf mortality. The average spacing of the typed markers was 20 cM with 2 to 14 markers per chromosome. Associations between markers and traits were analyzed with multiple marker regression. Significance was determined by permutation and genome-wise P-values obtained by Bonferroni correction. The benefits from MAS were investigated by simulation: a conventional progeny testing scheme was compared to a scheme where QTL information was used within families to select among full-sibs in the male path. Two QTL on different chromosomes were modelled. The effects of different starting frequencies of the favourable alleles and different size of the QTL effects were evaluated. A large number of QTL, 48 in total, were detected at 5% or higher chromosome-wise significance. QTL for milk production were found on 8 chromosomes, for SCS on 6, for mastitis treatments on 1, for other veterinary treatments on 5, for days open on 7, for fertility treatments on 7, for calf mortality on 6, and for non-return rate on 2 chromosomes. In the simulation study the total genetic response was faster with MAS than with conventional selection and the advantage of MAS persisted over the studied generations. The rate of response and the difference between the selection schemes reflected clearly the changes in allele frequencies of the favourable QTL. The disequilibrium between the polygenes and QTL was always negative and it was larger with larger QTL size. The disequilibrium between the two QTL was larger with QTL of large effect and it was somewhat larger with MAS for scenarios with starting frequencies below 0.5 for QTL of moderate size and below 0.3 for large QTL. In conclusion, several QTL affecting economically important traits of dairy cattle were detected. Further studies are needed to verify these QTL, check their presence in the present breeding population, look for pleiotropy and fine map the most interesting QTL regions. The results of the simulation studies show that using MAS together with embryo transfer to pre-select young bulls within families is a useful approach to increase the genetic merit of the AI-bulls compared to conventional selection.

Chronic disease risks and use of a smartphone application during a physical activity and dietary intervention in Australian truck drivers

- Objective This study examined chronic disease risks and the use of a smartphone activity tracking application during an intervention in Australian truck drivers (April-October 2014). - Methods Forty-four men (mean age=47.5 [SD 9.8] years) completed baseline health measures, and were subsequently offered access to a free wrist-worn activity tracker and smartphone application (Jawbone UP) to monitor step counts and dietary choices during a 20-week intervention. Chronic disease risks were evaluated against guidelines; weekly step count and dietary logs registered by drivers in the application were analysed to evaluate use of the Jawbone UP. - Results Chronic disease risks were high (e.g. 97% high waist circumference [≥94 cm]). Eighteen drivers (41%) did not start the intervention; smartphone technical barriers were the main reason for drop out. Across 20-weeks, drivers who used the Jawbone UP logged step counts for an average of 6 [SD 1] days/week; mean step counts remained consistent across the intervention (weeks 1–4=8,743[SD 2,867] steps/day; weeks 17–20=8,994[SD 3,478] steps/day). The median number of dietary logs significantly decreased from start (17 [IQR 38] logs/weeks) to end of the intervention (0 [IQR 23] logs/week; p<0.01); the median proportion of healthy diet choices relative to total diet choices logged increased across the intervention (weeks 1–4=38[IQR 21]%; weeks 17–20=58[IQR 18]%). - Conclusions Step counts were more successfully monitored than dietary choices in those drivers who used the Jawbone UP. - Implications Smartphone technology facilitated active living and healthy dietary choices, but also prohibited intervention engagement in a number of these high-risk Australian truck drivers.

Essays on the Costs and Benefits of Large Shareholders in Corporate Governance (summary section only)

“Corporate governance deals with the ways in which suppliers of finance to firms assure themselves of getting a return on their investment” (Shleifer and Vishny (1997, p. 737). According to La Porta et al. (1999), research in corporate finance relevant for most countries should focus on the incentives and capabilities of controlling shareholders to treat themselves preferentially at the expense of minority shareholders. Accordingly, this thesis sets out to answer a number of research questions regarding the role of large shareholders in public firms that have received little attention in the literature so far. A common theme in the essays stems from the costs and benefits of individual large-block owners and the role of control contestability from the perspective of outside minority shareholders. The first essay empirically examines whether there are systematic performance differences between family controlled and nonfamily controlled firms in Western Europe. In contrast to the widely held view that family control penalizes firm value, the essay shows that publicly traded family firms have higher performance than comparable firms. In the second essay, we present both theoretical and empirical analysis on the effects of control contestability on firm valuation. Consistent with the theoretical model, the empirical results show that minority shareholders benefit from a more contestable control structure. The third essay explores the effects of individual large-block owners on top management turnover and board appointments in Finnish listed firms. The results indicate that firm performance is an important determinant for management and board restructurings. For certain types of turnover decisions the corporate governance structure influences the performance / turnover sensitivity. In the fourth essay, we investigate the relation between the governance structure and dividend policy in Finnish listed firms. We find evidence in support of the outcome agency model of dividends stating that lower agency conflicts should be associated with higher dividend payouts.

Costs and Benefits of a Shared Digital Long-Term Preservation System

This paper describes the cost-benefit analysis of digital long-term preservation (LTP) that was carried out in the context of the Finnish National Digital Library Project (NDL) in 2010. The analysis was based on the assumption that as many as 200 archives, libraries, and museums will share an LTP system. The term ‘system’ shall be understood as encompassing not only information technology, but also human resources, organizational structures, policies and funding mechanisms. The cost analysis shows that an LTP system will incur, over the first 12 years, cumulative costs of €42 million, i.e. an average of €3.5 million per annum. Human resources and investments in information technology are the major cost factors. After the initial stages, the analysis predicts annual costs of circa €4 million. The analysis compared scenarios with and without a shared LTP system. The results indicate that a shared system will have remarkable benefits. At the development and implementation stages, a shared system shows an advantage of €30 million against the alternative scenario consisting of five independent LTP solutions. During the later stages, the advantage is estimated at €10 million per annum. The cumulative cost benefit over the first 12 years would amount to circa €100 million.

Costs and benefits of the presence of leopards to the sport-hunting industry and local communities in Niassa national reserve, mozambique

Sport hunting is often proposed as a tool to support the conservation of large carnivores. However, it is challenging to provide tangible economic benefits from this activity as an incentive for local people to conserve carnivores. We assessed economic gains from sport hunting and poaching of leopards (Panthera pardus), costs of leopard depredation of livestock, and attitudes of people toward leopards in Niassa National Reserve, Mozambique. We sent questionnaires to hunting concessionaires (n = 8) to investigate the economic value of and the relative importance of leopards relative to other key trophy-hunted species. We asked villagers (n = 158) the number of and prices for leopards poached in the reserve and the number of goats depredated by leopard. Leopards were the mainstay of the hunting industry; a single animal was worth approximately U.S.$24,000. Most safari revenues are retained at national and international levels, but poached leopard are illegally traded locally for small amounts ($83). Leopards depredated 11 goats over 2 years in 2 of 4 surveyed villages resulting in losses of $440 to 6 households. People in these households had negative attitudes toward leopards. Although leopard sport hunting generates larger gross revenues than poaching, illegal hunting provides higher economic benefits for households involved in the activity. Sport-hunting revenues did not compensate for the economic losses of livestock at the household level. On the basis of our results, we propose that poaching be reduced by increasing the costs of apprehension and that the economic benefits from leopard sport hunting be used to improve community livelihoods and provide incentives not to poach.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

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On-Farm Flood Flow Capture – addressing flood risks and groundwater overdraft in the Kings Basin, with potential applications throughout the Central Valley

Project fact sheet prepared in cooperation with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Kings River Conservation District.

Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of methods for reducing nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico: Topic 6 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

In this report we analyze the Topic 5 report’s recommendations for reducing nitrogen losses to the Gulf of Mexico (Mitsch et al. 1999). We indicate the relative costs and cost-effectiveness of different control measures, and potential benefits within the Mississippi River Basin. For major nonpoint sources, such as agriculture, we examine both national and basin costs and benefits. Based on the Topic 2 economic analysis (Diaz and Solow 1999), the direct measurable dollar benefits to Gulf fisheries of reducing nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River Basin are very limited at best. Although restoring the ecological communities in the Gulf may be significant over the long term, we do not currently have information available to estimate the benefits of such measures to restore the Gulf’s long-term health. For these reasons, we assume that measures to reduce nitrogen losses to the Gulf will ultimately prove beneficial, and we concentrate on analyzing the cost-effectiveness of alternative reduction strategies. We recognize that important public decisions are seldom made on the basis of strict benefit–cost analysis, especially when complete benefits cannot be estimated. We look at different approaches and different levels of these approaches to identify those that are cost-effective and those that have limited undesirable secondary effects, such as reduced exports, which may result in lost market share. We concentrate on the measures highlighted in the Topic 5 report, and also are guided by the source identification information in the Topic 3 report (Goolsby et al. 1999). Nonpoint sources that are responsible for the bulk of the nitrogen receive most of our attention. We consider restrictions on nitrogen fertilizer levels, and restoration of wetlands and riparian buffers for denitrification. We also examine giving more emphasis to nitrogen control in regions contributing a greater share of the nitrogen load.