Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Why the World Suddenly Cares About Global Supply Chains

The global value chain (GVC) concept has gained popularity as a way to analyze the international expansion and geographical fragmentation of contemporary supply chains and value creation and capture therein. It has been used broadly in academic publications that examine a wide range of global industries, and by many of the international organizations concerned with economic development. This note highlights some of the main features of GVC analysis and discusses the relationship between the core concepts of governance and upgrading. The key dynamics of contemporary global supply chains and their implications for global production and trade are illustrated by: (1) the consolidation of global value chains and the new geography of value creation and capture, with an emphasis on China; (2) the key roles of global supermarkets and private standards in agri-food supply chains; and (3) how the recent economic crisis contributes to shifting end markets and the regionalization of value chains. It concludes with a discussion of the future direction of GVC analysis and a potential collaboration with supply chain researchers. © 2012 Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

Global value chains and agrifood standards: challenges and possibilities for smallholders in developing countries.

The rise of private food standards has brought forth an ongoing debate about whether they work as a barrier for smallholders and hinder poverty reduction in developing countries. This paper uses a global value chain approach to explain the relationship between value chain structure and agrifood safety and quality standards and to discuss the challenges and possibilities this entails for the upgrading of smallholders. It maps four potential value chain scenarios depending on the degree of concentration in the markets for agrifood supply (farmers and manufacturers) and demand (supermarkets and other food retailers) and discusses the impact of lead firms and key intermediaries on smallholders in different chain situations. Each scenario is illustrated with case examples. Theoretical and policy issues are discussed, along with proposals for future research in terms of industry structure, private governance, and sustainable value chains.

NAFTA and uneven development in the North American apparel industry

The various contributions to this book have documented how NAFTA-inspired firm strategies are changing the geography of apparel production in North America. The authors show in myriad ways how companies at different positions along the apparel commodity chain are responding to the new institutional and regulatory environment that NAFTA creates. By making it easier for U.S. companies to take advantage of Mexico as a nearby low-cost site for export-oriented apparel production, NAFTA is deepening the regional division of labor within North America, and this process has consequences for firms and workers in each of the signatory countries. In the introduction to this book we alluded to the obvious implications of shifting investment and trade patterns in the North American apparel industry for employment in the different countries. In this concluding chapter we focus on Mexico in the NAFTA era, specifically the extent to which Mexico's role in the North American economy facilitates or inhibits its economic development. W e begin with a discussion of the contemporary debate about Mexico's development, which turns on the question of how to assess the implications of Mexico's rapid and pro-found process of economic reform. Second, we focus on the textile and apparel industries as sectors that have been significantly affected by changes in regulatory environments at both the global and regional levels. Third, we examine the evidence regarding Mexico's NAFTA-era export dynamism, and in particular we emphasize the importance of interfirm networks, both for making sense of Mexico's meteoric rise among apparel exporters and for evaluating the implications of this dynamism for development. Fourth, we turn to a consideration of the national political-economic environment that shapes developmental outcomes for all Mexicans. Although regional disparities within Mexico are profound, aspects of government policy, such as management of the national currency, and characteristics of the institutional environment, such as industrial relations, have nationwide effects, and critics of NAFTA charge that these factors are contributing to a process of economic and social polarization that is ever more evident (Morales 1999; Dussel Peters 2000). Finally, we suggest that the mixed consequences of Mexico's NAFTA-era growth can be taken as emblematic of the contradictions that the process of globalization poses for economic and social development. The anti-sweatshop campaign in North America is one example of transnational or crossborder movements that are emerging to address the negative consequences of this process. In bringing attention to the problem of sweatshop production in North America, activists are developing strategies that rely on a network logic that is not dissimilar to the approaches reflected in the various chapters of this book. © 2009 by Temple University Press. All rights reserved.

Global value Chains, rising power firms and economic and social upgrading

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the global value chain (GVC) approach to understand the relationship between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the changing patterns of global trade, investment and production, and its impact on economic and social upgrading. It aims to illuminate how GVCs can advance our understanding about MNEs and rising power (RP) firms and their impact on economic and social upgrading in fragmented and dispersed global production systems. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews theGVCliterature focusing on two conceptual elements of the GVC approach, governance and upgrading, and highlights three key recent developments in GVCs: concentration, regionalization and synergistic governance. Findings – The paper underscores the complicated role of GVCs in shaping economic and social upgrading for emerging economies, RP firms and developing country firms in general. Rising geographic and organizational concentration in GVCs leads to the uneven distribution of upgrading opportunities in favor of RP firms, and yet economic upgrading may be elusive even for the most established suppliers because of power asymmetry with global buyers. Shifting end markets and the regionalization of value chains can benefit RP firms by presenting alternative markets for upgrading. Yet, without further upgrading, such benefits may be achieved at the expense of social downgrading. Finally, the ineffectiveness of private standards to achieve social upgrading has led to calls for synergistic governance through the cooperation of private, public and social actors, both global and local. Originality/value – The paper illuminates how the GVC approach and its key concepts can contribute to the critical international business and RP firms literature by examining the latest dynamics in GVCs and their impacts on economic and social development in developing countries.

Theorising and analysing digital labour: from global value chains to modes of production

This paper considers the following question—where do computers, laptops and mobile phones come from and who produced them? Specific cases of digital labour are examined—the extraction of minerals in African mines under slave-like conditions; ICT manufacturing and assemblage in China (Foxconn); software engineering in India; call centre service work; software engineering at Google within Silicon Valley; and the digital labour of internet prosumers/users. Empirical data and empirical studies concerning these cases are systematically analysed and theoretically interpreted. The theoretical interpretations are grounded in Marxist political economy. The term ‘global value chain’ is criticised in favour of a complex and multidimensional understanding of Marx’s ‘mode of production’ for the purposes of conceptualizing digital labour. This kind of labour is transnational and involves various modes of production, relations of production and organisational forms (in the context of the productive forces). There is a complex global division of digital labour that connects and articulates various forms of productive forces, exploitation, modes of production, and variations within the dominant capitalist mode of production.

Niagara alternative food projects : networks, discourses and nature /

This thesis undertakes an exploration of the nature of alternative food projects in Niagara. A review of various theoretical approaches to the study of food and agriculture, suggests that actor-network theory offers the most useful lens through which to understand these projects. In particular, actor-network theory facilitates non-dualistic theorisations of power and scale and a commitment to the inclusion of non-humans in the 'social' sciences. The research is based on 19 in-depth interviews with actors involved in various urban and rural projects including community supported agriculture, community gardens, chefs using local seasonal food, a winery that grows organically, the good food box, a value-added small business, and organic producers. The analysis consists of four themes. The first analytical section pays special attention to the prominence of agri-tourism in Niagara, and examines the ways in which the projects in the sample interact with agri-tourist networks. In the second section the discussion focuses on the discourses and practices of resistance among Niagara alternative food actors. The participants' interviews suggest there are more discourses of resistance toward agri-tourist than toward dominant food networks. The third section questions commodity chain theorisations of alternative food projects. In particular, this section shows how the inclusion of non-human actors in an analysis confounds conceptualisations of 'short' and 'local' chains. The final analytical section assesses relations of power in Niagara alternative food projects. Three important conclusions arise from this research. First, Niagara alternative food projects cannot be conceptualised as operating at the 'local' scale. Broadening the scope of analysis to include non-human actors, it becomes apparent that these projects actually draw on a variety of extra-local actors. They are at once local and global. Second, the projects in this sample are simultaneously part of alternative, dominant and agri-tourist networks. While Niagara alternative food projects do perform many of the roles characteristic of alternative food systems, they are also involved in practices of development, business, and class distinction. Thus, alternative food networks should not be understood as separate from and in direct opposition to dominant food networks. Despite the second conclusion, this research determines that Niagara alternative food projects have made significant strides in the reworking of power. The projects represented in this thesis do engage in resistant practices and are associated with increased levels ofjustice.

Droit du transport intermodal international de marchandises : une perspective « supply chain management ».

La thèse propose d’introduire une perspective globale dans le traitement juridique du transport intermodal international qui prendrait racine dans la stratégie logistique des entreprises. La conception juridique se heurte, en effet, aux évolutions opérationnelles et organisationnelles des transports et aboutit à une incertitude juridique. Les transporteurs ont dû s’adapter aux exigences d’optimisation des flux des chargeurs dont les modes de production et de distribution reposent sur le supply chain management (SCM). Ce concept est le fruit de la mondialisation et des technologies de l’information. La concurrence induite par la mondialisation et le pilotage optimal des flux ont impulsé de nouvelles stratégies de la part des entreprises qui tentent d’avoir un avantage concurrentiel sur le marché. Ces stratégies reposent sur l’intégration interfonctionnelle et interoganisationnelle. Dans cette chaîne logistique globale (ou SCM) l’intermodal est crucial. Il lie et coordonne les réseaux de production et de distribution spatialement désagrégés des entreprises et, répond aux exigences de maîtrise de l’espace et du temps, à moindre coût. Ainsi, le transporteur doit d’une part, intégrer les opérations de transport en optimisant les déplacements et, d’autre part, s’intégrer à la chaîne logistique du client en proposant des services de valeur ajoutée pour renforcer la compétitivité de la chaîne de valeur. Il en découle une unité technique et économique de la chaîne intermodale qui est pourtant, juridiquement fragmentée. Les Conventions internationales en vigueur ont été élaborées pour chaque mode de transport en faisant fi de l’interaction entre les modes et entre les opérateurs. L’intermodal est considéré comme une juxtaposition des modes et des régimes juridiques. Ce dépeçage juridique contraste avec la gestion de la chaîne intermodale dont les composantes individuelles s’effacent au profit de l’objectif global à atteindre. L’on expose d’abord l’ampleur de l’incertitude juridique due aux difficultés de circonscrire le champ d’opérations couvert par les Conventions en vigueur. Une attention est portée aux divergences d’interprétations qui débouchent sur la « désunification » du droit du transport. On s’intéresse ensuite aux interactions entre le transport et la chaîne logistique des chargeurs. Pour cela, on retrace l’évolution des modes de production et de distribution de ces derniers. C’est effectivement de la stratégie logistique que découle la conception de la chaîne intermodale. Partant de ce système, on identifie les caractéristiques fondamentales de l’intermodal. La thèse aboutit à dissiper les confusions liées à la qualification de l’intermodal et qui sont à la base des divergences d’interprétations et de l’incertitude juridique. De plus, elle met en exergue l’unité économique du contrat de transport intermodal qui devrait guider la fixation d’un régime de responsabilité dédié à ce système intégré de transport. Enfin, elle initie une approche ignorée des débats juridiques.

Análisis de los componentes de la cadena de suministro y global manufacturing y su relación con el desempeño organizacional en el sector manufacturero

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo mostrar la relación que existe entre la cadena de suministro, global manufacturing y su relación con el desempeño organizacional en el sector manufacturero. El proyecto va a estar divido en tres grandes partes, en primer lugar estará el marco conceptual donde se especificarán los conceptos más significativos que abarcan la investigación, seguido del marco teórico donde se expondrán las teorías y estudios encontrados, analizados y estudiados con el fin de desembocar en la tercer parte que serán las conclusiones y recomendaciones que se darán a partir de los análisis y teorías que compactan el tema de la relación existente entre la cadena de suministro, global manufacturing y el desempeño organizacional.

Trust and governance of global value chains: The case of a Brazilian beef processor

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to offer an exploratory case study comparing one Brazilian beef processor's relationships supplying two different distribution channels, an EU importer and an EU retail chain operating in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach - The paper begins with a short review of global value chains and the recent literature on trust. It gives the background to the Brazilian beef chain and presents data obtained through in-depth interviews, annual reports and direct observation with the Brazilian beef processor, the EU importer and the retailer. The interviews were conducted with individual firms, but the analysis places them in a chain context, identifying the links and relationships between the agents of the chains and aiming to describe each distribution channel. Findings - Executive chain governance exercised by the domestic retailer stimulates technical upgrading and transferring of best practices to local. suppliers. Consequently, this kind of relationship results in more trust within the global value chain. Practical implications - There are difficulties and challenges facing this Brazilian beef processor that are party related to the need to comply with increasingly complex and demanding food safety and food quality standards. There is still a gap between practices adopted for the export market and practices adopted locally. The strategies of transnational retailers in offering differentiated beef should be taken in account. Originality/value - The research outlines an interdisciplinary framework able to explain chain relationships and the kind of trust that emerges in relationships between EU importer/retail and a developing country supplier.

Economic commodity or environmental crisis? An interdisciplinary approach to analysing the bushmeat trade in central and west Africa

Bushmeat is a large but largely invisible contributor to the economies of west and central African countries. Yet the trade is currently unsustainable. Hunting is reducing wildlife populations, driving more vulnerable species to local and regional extinction, and threatening biodiversity. This paper uses a commodity chain approach to explore the bushmeat trade and to demonstrate why an interdisciplinary approach is required if the trade is to be sustainable in the future.

Gestão de risco em cadeia de suprimentos global: um estudo multicasos entre os membros da cadeia da manga

O propósito deste estudo é compreender como os diferentes membros gerenciam o risco na cadeia de suprimentos global. Por meio de um estudo multicaso na cadeia de exportação da manga brasileira para os Estados Unidos foram investigados os elos fornecedor, exportador, operador logístico e importador. Foi desenvolvido um protocolo de pesquisa conforme sugestão de Yin (2010) e adaptação de instrumento de coleta de dados semi-estruturado de Christopher, et al. (2011). A partir de entrevistas com organizações de apoio ao objeto da pesquisa, foi selecionado a amostra de empresas nas quais o fenômeno de gestão do risco poderia ser melhor observado. Baseado nas classificações de tipo de risco elaboradas por Christopher et al. (2011), é sugerida uma nova organização das categorias de risco (demanda, suprimentos, processo e controle, ambiental e sustentabilidade). Este trabalho apresenta uma descrição da cadeia de exportação de manga, bem como os principais riscos e as estratégias mitigadoras de risco empregadas pelos quatro membros da cadeia estudados. Conforme regra de Sousa (2001), foram realizadas comparações entre os tipos de risco e estratégias mitigadoras observadas na cadeia de suprimentos. Por fim, o estudo mostrou que a gestão do risco é heterogenia entre os membros da cadeia, o exportador é o mais penalizado pela consequência de risco à cadeia e a colaboração é a principal forma observada de mitigação.

The transformation of the North American apparel industry: is NAFTA a curse or a blessing?

Includes bibliography

The "China effect" on commodity prices and Latin American export earnings

Includes bibliography

Innovating global value chains : creation of the netbook market by Taiwanese firms

This paper explores the process of creation of the netbook market by Taiwanese firms as an example of a disruptive innovation by latecomer firms. As an analytical framework, I employ the global value chain perspective to capture the dynamics of vertical inter-firm relationships that drive some firms in the chain to change the status quo of the industry. I then divide the process of the emergence of the netbook market into three consecutive stages, i.e. (1) the launch of the first-generation netbook by a Taiwanese firm named ASUSTeK, (2) the response of the two powerful platform leaders of the industry, Intel and Microsoft Intel, to ASUSTeK’s innovation, and (3) the market entry by another powerful Taiwanese firm, Acer, and explain how Taiwanese firms broke the Intel-centric market and tapped into the market-creating innovation opportunities that had been suppressed by the two powerful platform leaders. I also show that the creation of the netbook industry was an evolutionary process in which a series of responses by different industry players led to changes in the status quo of the industry.