Growth, increasing returns, and public infrastructure : time series evidence

Initial endogenous growth models emphasized the importance of external effects and increasing retums in explaining growth. Empirically, this hypothesis can be confumed if the coefficient of physical capital per hour is unity in the aggregate production function. Previous estimates using time series data rejected this hypothesis, although cross-country estimates did nol The problem lies with the techniques employed, which are unable to capture low-frequency movements of high-frequency data. Using cointegration, new time series evidence confum the theory and conform to cross-country evidence. The implied Solow residual, which takes into account externaI effects to aggregate capital, has its behavior analyzed. The hypothesis that it is explained by government expenditures on infrasttucture is confIrmed. This suggests a supply-side role for government affecting productivity.

Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis

The aim of this article is to assess the role of real effective exchange rate volatility on long-run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009. With an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility, the results for the two-step system GMM panel growth models show that a more (less) volatile RER has significant negative (positive) impact on economic growth and the results are robust for different model specifications. In addition to that, exchange rate stability seems to be more important to foster long-run economic growth than exchange rate misalignment

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Age and growth of the Scalloped Hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini (Griffith and Smith, 1834), from the southern Brazilian coast

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Characterization, feasibility and optimization of Agaricus subrufescens growth based on chemical elements on casing layer

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

ECLAC and the new growth theories

Includes bibliography

Reforms and growth in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth

This article investigates the effects of the investments made by the Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund (FNE) on the economic growth of that region's municipalities in the decade of 2000. To that end, it uses an empirical framework based on growth models that make it possible to form convergence clubs according to the municipalities' initial development level. The results corroborate the empirical strategy and reveal the existence of four groups of municipalities, in which investment flows through the FNE have different effects on growth. In general, the FNE produces positive and significant effects in most municipalities of the Northeast, except for those whose gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was either very low or very high at the start of the decade, in which case its effects are not significant.

Growth curve of female collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu) raised in captivity in the Brazilian Amazon Region

Com o objetivo de ajustar modelos não-lineares, foram utilizados registros mensais do peso de 10 fêmeas de cateto (Pecari tajacu) coletados durante dois anos, no criatório do campo experimental Álvaro Adolfo da Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, Belém, PA. Utilizaram-se os modelos de Von Bertalanffy, Brody, Gompertz e Logístico. Os parâmetros foram estimados usando o procedimento NLIN do aplicativo SAS. Os critérios utilizados para verificar o ajuste dos modelos foram: desvio padrão assintótico (ASD); coeficiente de determinação (R²); desvio médio absoluto dos resíduos (ARD) e o índice assintótico (AR). Os modelos Brody e Logístico estimaram, respectivamente, o maior (19,44kg) e o menor (19,18kg) peso assintótico (A), caracterizando a menor (0,0064kg/dia) e a maior (0,0113kg/dia) taxa de maturação (K), haja vista a natureza antagônica entre estes parâmetros, comprovada pela correlação fenotípica variando entre -0,75 à -0,47. O modelo Brody estimou o menor valor para o ARD, fator limitante para caracterizar o menor valor para o AR por este modelo. Considerando o AR, o modelo Brody apresentou o melhor ajuste, contudo, pelos valores encontrados, os demais modelos também apresentaram ajuste adequando aos dados ponderais da referida espécie/sexo. Com base no AR adotado neste trabalho, recomenda-se o modelo Brody para ajustar a curva de crescimento de fêmeas de cateto (Pecari tajacu). Em razão dos valores estimados, sobretudo, para a K, essa característica pode ser incluída em um índice de seleção. Contudo, estudos com grupos mais representativos e criados em outras condições se faz oportuno.

Educational Investment, Family Context, and Children’s Math and Reading Growth from Kindergarten through the Third Grade

Drawing on longitudinal data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999, this study used IRT modeling to operationalize a measure of parental educational investments based on Lareau’s notion of concerted cultivation. It used multilevel piecewise growth models regressing children’s math and reading achievement from entry into kindergarten through the third grade on concerted cultivation and family context variables. The results indicate that educational investments are an important mediator of socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities, completely explaining the black-white reading gap at kindergarten entry and consistently explaining 20 percent to 60 percent and 30 percent to 50 percent of the black-white and Hispanic-white disparities in the growth parameters, respectively, and approximately 20 percent of the socioeconomic gradients. Notably, concerted cultivation played a more significant role in explaining racial/ethnic gaps in achievement than expected from Lareau’s discussion, which suggests that after socioeconomic background is controlled, concerted cultivation should not be implicated in racial/ethnic disparities in learning.

Modeling the growth rate and lag time of different strains of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat lettuce

The growth parameters (growth rate, mu and lag time, lambda) of three different strains each of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed lettuce (MPL) and their changes as a function of temperature were modeled. MPL were packed under modified atmosphere (5% O-2, 15% CO2 and 80% N-2), stored at 7-30 degrees C and samples collected at different time intervals were enumerated for S. enterica and L monocytogenes. Growth curves and equations describing the relationship between mu and lambda as a function of temperature were constructed using the DMFit Excel add-in and through linear regression, respectively. The predicted growth parameters for the pathogens observed in this study were compared to ComBase, Pathogen modeling program (PMP) and data from the literature. High R-2 values (0.97 and 0.93) were observed for average growth curves of different strains of pathogens grown on MPL Secondary models of mu and lambda for both pathogens followed a linear trend with high R2 values (>0.90). Root mean square error (RMSE) showed that the models obtained are accurate and suitable for modeling the growth of S. enterica and L monocytogenes in MP lettuce. The current study provides growth models for these foodborne pathogens that can be used in microbial risk assessment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of age determination methods and growth studies of the sand sole Pegusa lascaris (Soleidae) from the eastern-central Atlantic

[EN]The age and growth of the sand sole Pegusa lascaris from the Canarian Archipelago were studied from 2107 fish collected between January 2005 and December 2007. To find an appropriate method for age determination, sagittal otoliths were observed by surface-reading and frontal section and the results were compared. The two methods did not differ significantly in estimated age but the surface-reading method is superior in terms of cost and time efficiency. The sand sole has a moderate life span, with ages up to 10 years recorded. Individuals grow quickly in their first two years, attaining approximately 48% of their maximum standard length; after the second year, their growth rate drops rapidly as energy is diverted to reproduction. Males and females show dimorphism in growth, with females reaching a slightly greater length and age than males. Von Bertalanffy, seasonalized von Bertalanfy, Gompertz, and Schnute growth models were fitted to length-at-age data. Akaike weights for the seasonalized von Bertalanffy growth model indicated that the probability of choosing the correct model from the group of models used was >0.999 for males and females. The seasonalized von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated were: L? = 309 mm standard length, k = 0.166 yr?1, t0 = ?1.88 yr, C = 0.347, and ts = 0.578 for males; and L? = 318 mm standard length, k = 0.164 yr?1, t0 = ?1.653 yr, C = 0.820, and ts = 0.691 for females. Fish standard length and otolith radius are closely correlated (R2 = 0.902). The relation between standard length and otolith radius is described by a power function (a = 85.11, v = 0.906)

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

経済成長と貧困・雇用：Pro-Poor Growth論の系譜

開発途上国が長期的に貧困削減を実現していくためには、貧困削減に貢献する形で経済成長をすることが必要であり、貧困削減に親和的な経済成長がPro-Poor Growthと呼ばれている。現在までのところ、Pro-Poor Growth研究は、どの国のどの時期の経済成長が貧困削減に大きく貢献したかを問うものが多数を占めており、何がpro-poor growthをもたらすか、に着目した研究は少ない。その少ない研究の多くは農業や農村経済の役割に期待するものであるが、本稿では、既にある程度の貧困削減を遂げた東・東南アジアの経験に鑑み、低賃金の国において労働集約的製造業品を輸出することで貧困層の賃金や雇用機会を飛躍的に伸張させる可能性について考察した。バングラデシュ、カンボジアといった国々は既に縫製業がその役割を果たしており、これまでの東・東南アジアの貧困削減パターンが現在の東南アジアや南アジアの最貧国でも踏襲される可能性が十分にある。

An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.