Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

Are target date funds the easy bake option?

Target date funds provide a simple, automated approach to retirement savings in defined contribution plans. The passing of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 has seen an increase in the popularity of these funds in the United States, becoming the default option for many plans. However, recent research findings have challenged the easy bake or ‘set-and-forget’ nature of target date funds. This study explores some of the critical design features of target date funds (which shifts an individual’s asset allocation from growth to defensive assets following a pre-set glidepath) against a simple balanced (or target risk) fund design. Using both time-weighted and dollar-weighted returns, our results suggest that there is more to achieving successful retirement outcomes than the investor simply selecting a proposed year of retirement. Our findings can perhaps be summarized by Einstein’s famous epithet, that in the murky world of retirement product design, everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.

Principles of investments

"Emphasises asset allocation while presenting the practical applications of investment theory. The authors concentrate on the intuition and insights that will be useful to students throughout their careers as new ideas and challenges emerge from the financial marketplace. It provides a good foundation to understand the basic types of securities and financial markets as well as how trading in those markets is conducted. The Portfolio Management section is discussed towards the end of the course and supported by a web-based portfolio simulation with a hypothetical $100,000 brokerage account to buy and sell stocks and mutual funds. Students get a chance to use real data found in the Wall Street Survivor simulation in conjunction with the chapters on investments. This site is powered by StockTrak, the leading provider of investment simulation services to the academic community. Principles of Investments includes increased attention to changes in market structure and trading technology. The theory is supported by a wide range of exercises, worksheets and problems."--publisher website Contents: Investments: background and issues -- Asset classes and financial markets -- Securities markets -- Managed funds and investment management -- Risk and return: past and prologue -- Efficient diversification -- Capital asset pricing and arbitrage pricing theory -- The efficient market hypothesis -- Bond prices and yields -- Managing bond portfolios -- Equity valuation -- Macroeconomic and industry analysis -- Financial statement analysis -- Investors and the investment process -- Hedge funds -- Portfolio performance evaluation.

THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Are lifecycle funds appropriate as default options in participant-directed retirement plans?

The appropriateness of default investment options in participant-directed retirement plans like 401(k) has been in sharp focus given that most participants fail to nominate an investment option to direct their contributions. In United States (US), prior to the Pension Protection Act (PPA) of 2006, plan fiduciaries often selected a money market fund as the default option. Whilst this ‘low risk and low return’ investment option was considered to be a ‘safe’ choice by many fiduciaries who were fearful of litigation risk, it was heavily criticized for resulting in inadequate wealth at retirement, particularly when retirees were living much longer and facing inflation risk (see, for example, Viceira, 2008; Skinner, 2009)...

Do socially responsible investment indexes outperform conventional indexes?

The question of whether more Socially Responsible (SR) firms outperform or underperform other conventional firms has been debated in the economic literature. In this study, using the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) indexes and conventional stock indexes in the US, the UK and Japan, first and second moments of firm performance distributions are estimated based on the Markov Switching (MS) model. We find two distinct regimes (bear and bull) in the SRI markets as well as the stock markets for all the three countries. These regimes occur with the same timing in both types of market. No statistical difference in means and volatilities generated from the SRI indexes and conventional indexes in either region was found. Furthermore, we find strong comovements between the two indexes in both the regimes.

Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

The opportunity for implementing Islamic project financing to the Indonesian infrastructure development

Purpose: This chapter discusses the opportunity of Islamic project financing implementation for public infrastructure development in Indonesia. Design/Methodology/Approach: This chapter, firstly, reviewed existing literature on Islamic finance to explore the applicability of Islamic financing in infrastructure development. Interviews were conducted as the first stage of Delphi method approach. This was then followed by reviewing Indonesia’s government policies and regulations in infrastructure industry and Islamic financing. Findings: This chapter enlightens the implementation of Islamic financing on infrastructure project financing in Indonesia. The findings indicate that the government policies and regulations on both infrastructure investment and Islamic financing support the implementation of Islamic project financing, whereas, an improvement is still needed in order to overarch infrastructure business and Islamic financing investment. Research: Financing framework development for Indonesia infrastructure projects. Limitations/Implications: The result reported comprises the preliminary study of Islamic project paper written based on published research papers and interviews. Furthermore, the data collected for the study are limited to the case of Indonesian infrastructure projects. Practical Implication: Islamic financing in Indonesia infrastructure projects development has not been optimally implemented. Therefore, this chapter serves as a catalyst to explore alternative financial scheme such as Islamic financing for infrastructure development. Originality/Value: This chapter highlights possibilities and obstacles in applying Islamic scheme to infrastructure project financing. This provides a framework to analyse the steps to implement Islamic financing successfully in infrastructure development.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Essays on Stock Options, Incentives, and Managerial Action

Executive compensation and managerial behavior have received an increasing amount of attention in the financial economics literature since the mid 1970s. The purpose of this thesis is to extend our understanding of managerial compensation, especially how stock option compensation is linked to the actions undertaken by the management. Furthermore, managerial compensation is continuously and heatedly debated in the media and an emerging consensus from this discussion seems to be that there still exists gaps in our knowledge of optimal contracting. In Finland, the first executive stock options were introduced in the 1980s and throughout the last 15 years it has become increasingly popular for Finnish listed firms to use this type of managerial compensation. The empirical work in the thesis is conducted using data from Finland, in contrast to most previous studies that predominantly use U.S. data. Using Finnish data provides insight of how market conditions affect compensation and managerial action and provides an opportunity to explore what parts of the U.S. evidence can be generalized to other markets. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay investigates the exercise policy of the executive stock option holders in Finland. In summary, Essay 1 contributes to our understanding of the exercise policies by examining both the determinants of the exercise decision and the markets reaction to the actual exercises. The second essay analyzes the factors driving stock option grants using data for Finnish publicly listed firms. Several agency theory based variables are found to have have explanatory power on the likelihood of a stock option grant. Essay 2 also contributes to our understanding of behavioral factors, such as prior stock return, as determinants of stock option compensation. The third essay investigates the tax and stock option motives for share repurchases and dividend distributions. We document strong support for the tax motive for share repurchases. Furthermore, we also analyze the dividend distribution decision in companies with stock options and find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. We thus document that the cutting of dividends found in previous U.S. studies can be avoided by dividend protection. In the fourth essay we approach the puzzle of negative skewness in stock returns from an altogether different angle than in previous studies. We suggest that negative skewness in stock returns is generated by management disclosure practices and find proof for this. More specifically, we find that negative skewness in daily returns is induced by returns for days when non-scheduled firm specific news is disclosed.

Diversification efficiency and deposit rates

Rhodes, Mark, 'Diversification efficiency and deposit rates', Applied Financial Economics (2005) 15(13) pp.935-945 RAE2008

Empirical Evidence on Relationships between Ex Ante Innovation Pursuit and Post-M&A Performance in the Vietnamese M&A Industry, 2005-2012

This research aims to communicate new results of empirical investigations to learn about the relationship between determination of controlling an acquired firm’s capital, assets and brand versus its capability of innovation and ex post performance of the rising Vietnamese M&A industry in the 2005-2012 period. The analysis employs a categorical data sample, consisting of 212 M&A cases reported by various information sources, and performs a number of logistic regressions with significant results as follows. Firstly, the overall relationship between pre-M&A pursuit’s determination on acquiring resources and performance of the post-M&A performance is found significant. There exist profound effects of a ‘size matters’ strategy in M&A ex post performance. When there is an overwhelming ‘resources acquiring’ strategy, the innovation factor’s explanatory power becomes negligible. Secondly, for negative performance of post-M&A operations, the emphasis on both capital base and asset size, and the brand value at the time of the M&A pursuit is the major explanation in the post-M&A period. So does the absence of innovation as a goal in the pre-M&A period. These two insights together are useful in careful M&A planning. Lastly, expensive pre-M&A expenditures tend to adversely affect the post-M&A performance. As a general conclusion, this study shows that innovation can be an important factor to pursue in M&A transitions, together with the need to emphasize and find capable and willing human capital, rather than a capital base (equity or debt) and existing values of the acquired brands.

The influence of gender in the direction of Spanish cooperative societies on profitability and indebtedness: an empirical analysis

In this paper the claim for the market for a new business management to ensure the presence of women in decision -making to respond to new social needs addressed. Thus, this paper analyzes the influence of gender diversity of the directors on the profitability and the level of debt for a sample of 5,199 Spanish cooperatives. Unlike capitalist societies, these organizations have a number of peculiarities in their government, and that the partners are themselves major time, agents and customers. The study focuses on the Spanish context, where there is an open debate on the importance of women's business management, as in other countries, driven by the proliferation of legislation on gender equality, being, in addition, Spain, the pioneer in having specific legislation on Social Economy. The results show that cooperatives with greater female representation in theirs Boards have higher profitability. On the other hand, those Boards with a higher percentage of women show a lower level of indebtedness.

The Cost of Sustainability Capital and the Creation of Sustainable Value by Companies

We develop and apply a valuation methodology to calculate the cost of sustainability capital, and, eventually, sustainable value creation of companies. Sustainable development posits that decisions must take into account all forms of capital rather than just economic capital. We develop a methodology that allows calculation of the costs that are associated with the use of different forms of capital. Our methodology borrows the idea from financial economics that the return on capital has to cover the cost of capital. Capital costs are determined as opportunity costs, that is, the forgone returns that would have been created by alternative investments. We apply and extend the logic of opportunity costs to the valuation not only of economic capital but also of other forms of capital. This allows (a) integrated analysis of use of different forms of capital based on a value-based aggregation of different forms of capital, (b) determination of the opportunity cost of a bundle of different forms of capital used in a company, called cost of sustainability capital, (c) calculation of sustainability efficiency of companies, and (d) calculation of sustainable value creation, that is, the value above the cost of sustainability capital. By expanding the well-established logic of the valuation of economic capital in financial markets to cover other forms of capital, we provide a methodology that allows determination of the most efficient allocation of sustainability capital for sustainable value creation in companies. We demonstrate the practicability of the methodology by the valuation of the sustainability performance of British Petroleum (BP).