Estimating relationships between air mass origin and chemical composition

Observations of a chemical at a point in the atmosphere typically show sudden transitions between episodes of high and low concentration. Often these are associated with a rapid change in the origin of air arriving at the site. Lagrangian chemical models riding along trajectories can reproduce such transitions, but small timing errors from trajectory phase errors dramatically reduce the correlation between modeled concentrations and observations. Here the origin averaging technique is introduced to obtain maps of average concentration as a function of air mass origin for the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE96, a ground-based chemistry campaign). These maps are used to construct origin averaged time series which enable comparison between a chemistry model and observations with phase errors factored out. The amount of the observed signal explained by trajectory changes can be quantified, as can the systematic model errors as a function of air mass origin. The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT) can account for over 70% of the observed ozone signal variance during EASE96 when phase errors are side-stepped by origin averaging. The dramatic increase in correlation (from 23% without averaging) cannot be achieved by time averaging. The success of the model is attributed to the strong relationship between changes in ozone along trajectories and their origin and its ability to simulate those changes. The model performs less well for longer-lived chemical constituents because the initial conditions 5 days before arrival are insufficiently well known.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

The curious case of the camelthorn: competition, coexistence and nest-site limitation in a multispecies mutualism

Myrmecophyte plants house ants in domatia in exchange for protection from herbivores. Ant-myrmecophyte mutualisms exhibit two general patterns due to competition between ants for plant occupancy: i) domatia nest-sites are a limiting resource and ii) each individual plant hosts one ant species at a time. However, individual camelthorn trees (Vachellia erioloba) typically host two to four ant species simultaneously, often coexisting in adjacent domatia on the same branch. Such fine-grain spatial coexistence brings into question the conventional wisdom on ant-myrmecophyte mutualisms. Camelthorn ants appear not to be nest-site limited, despite low abundance of suitable domatia, and have random distributions of nest-sites within and across trees. These patterns suggest a lack of competition between ants for domatia and contrast strongly with other ant-myrmecophyte systems. Comparison of this unusual case with others suggests that spatial scale is crucial to coexistence or competitive exclusion involving multiple ant species. Furthermore, coexistence may be facilitated when co-occurring ant species diverge strongly on at least one niche axis. Our conclusions provide recommendations for future ant-myrmecophyte research, particularly in utilising multispecies systems to further our understanding of mutualism biology.

A multi-instrument comparison of integrated water vapour measurements at a high latitude site

We compare measurements of integrated water vapour (IWV) over a subarctic site (Kiruna, Northern Sweden) from five different sensors and retrieval methods: Radiosondes, Global Positioning System (GPS), ground-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, ground-based microwave radiometer, and satellite-based microwave radiometer (AMSU-B). Additionally, we compare also to ERA-Interim model reanalysis data. GPS-based IWV data have the highest temporal coverage and resolution and are chosen as reference data set. All datasets agree reasonably well, but the ground-based microwave instrument only if the data are cloud-filtered. We also address two issues that are general for such intercomparison studies, the impact of different lower altitude limits for the IWV integration, and the impact of representativeness error. We develop methods for correcting for the former, and estimating the random error contribution of the latter. A literature survey reveals that reported systematic differences between different techniques are study-dependent and show no overall consistent pattern. Further improving the absolute accuracy of IWV measurements and providing climate-quality time series therefore remain challenging problems.

COMPARISON OF 3 TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING PERIPHYTON ABUNDANCE IN BEDROCK STREAMS

Three procedures (line transect, point intercept and quadrat) for estimating abundance of macroscopic components of periphyton (macroalgae and bryophytes) were compared in two bedrock streams from southeastern Brazil on the basis of frequency and percent cover. In addition, two quadrat sizes (25 and 50 cm) were tested for best size. Samplings were all made within a 10 m length stream reach. Differences were tested by means of analysis of variance, ANOVA - one way, Student's t test and Chi-square test, whereas associations among them were evaluated by Pearson's r correlation coefficient. Values of frequency and percent cover varied among the different techniques and periphyton species in both sites but ANOVA, t and Chi-square tests revealed no significant difference (p<0.05) for percent cover in the two sites. No consistent pattern was observed for the different procedures between sites. Values for quadrat (25 and 50 cm) percent cover were positively correlated among distinct periphyton species. Significant differences for frequency were found in only one site. Quadrats of 50 cm produced the highest frequency values, whereas point intercept the lowest in both sites. In terms of spatial variation within the stream segment, significant differences were generally observed among all procedures, except between quadrats. As a rule, highly significant correlations for percent cover were found among the different techniques along the stream reach. The strongest relationships were found for quadrats with the other procedures, whereas the weakest between Line and point. Pros and cons of the three techniques are fully discussed.

Allometric equations for estimating tree biomass in restored mixed-species Atlantic Forest stands

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using occupancy models to investigate space partitioning between two sympatric large predators, the jaguar and puma in central Brazil

Coexistence of sympatric species is mediated by resource partitioning. Pumas occur sympatrically with jaguars throughout most of the jaguar's range but few studies have investigated space partitioning between both species. Here, camera trapping and occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection were employed in a Bayesian framework to investigate space partitioning between the jaguar and puma in Emas National Park (ENP), central Brazil. Jaguars were estimated to occupy 54.1% and pumas 39.3% of the sample sites. Jaguar occupancy was negatively correlated with distance to water and positively correlated with the amount of dense habitat surrounding the camera trap. Puma occupancy only showed a weak negative correlation with distance to water and with jaguar presence. Both species were less often present at the same site than expected under independent distributions. Jaguars had a significantly higher detection probability at cameras on roads than at off-road locations. For pumas, detection was similar on and off-road. Results indicate that both differences in habitat use and active avoidance shape space partitioning between jaguars and pumas in ENP. Considering its size, the jaguar is likely the competitively dominant of the two species. Owing to its habitat preferences, suitable jaguar habitat outside the park is probably sparse. Consequently, the jaguar population is likely largely confined to the park, while the puma population is known to extend into ENP's surroundings. (C) 2011 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Number of Essential Genes in a Genome by Random Transposon Mutagenesis

We describe a Bayesian method for estimating the number of essential genes in a genome, on the basis of data on viable mutants for which a single transposon was inserted after a random TA site in a genome,potentially disrupting a gene. The prior distribution for the number of essential genes was taken to be uniform. A Gibbs sampler was used to estimate the posterior distribution. The method is illustrated with simulated data. Further simulations were used to study the performance of the procedure.

Underestimation of Standard Errors in Multi-Site Time Series Studies

Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average.

Incident malignancies among older long-term breast cancer survivors and an age-matched and site-matched nonbreast cancer comparison group over 10 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND Of the approximately 2.4 million American women with a history of breast cancer, 43% are aged ≥ 65 years and are at risk for developing subsequent malignancies. METHODS Women from 6 geographically diverse sites included 5-year breast cancer survivors (N = 1361) who were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 at age ≥ 65 years with stage I or II disease and a comparison group of women without breast cancer (N = 1361). Women in the comparison group were age-matched and site-matched to breast cancer survivors on the date of breast cancer diagnosis. Follow-up began 5 years after the index date (survivor diagnosis date or comparison enrollment date) until death, disenrollment, or through 15 years after the index date. Data were collected from medical records and electronic sources (cancer registry, administrative, clinical, National Death Index). Analyses included descriptive statistics, crude incidence rates, and Cox proportional hazards regression models for estimating the risk of incident malignancy and were adjusted for death as a competing risk. RESULTS Survivors and women in the comparison group were similar: >82% were white, 55% had a Charlson Comorbidity Index of 0, and ≥ 73% had a body mass index ≤ 30 kg/m(2) . Of all 306 women (N = 160 in the survivor group, N = 146 in the comparison group) who developed a first incident malignancy during follow-up, the mean time to malignancy was similar (4.37 ± 2.81 years vs 4.03 ± 2.76 years, respectively; P = .28), whereas unadjusted incidence rates were slightly higher in survivors (1882 vs 1620 per 100,000 person years). The adjusted hazard of developing a first incident malignancy was slightly elevated in survivors in relation to women in the comparison group, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.47). CONCLUSIONS Older women who survived 5 years after an early stage breast cancer diagnosis were not at an elevated risk for developing subsequent incident malignancies up to 15 years after their breast cancer diagnosis.

Hide-and-seek in vegetation: time-to-detection is an efficient design for estimating detectability and occurrence

Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44100m(2) Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

The integrity of the G2421-C2395 base pair in the ribosomal E-site is crucial for protein synthesis.

During the elongation cycle of protein biosynthesis, tRNAs traverse through the ribosome by consecutive binding to the 3 ribosomal binding sites (A-, P-, and E- sites). While the ribosomal A- and P-sites have been functionally well characterized in the past, the contribution of the E-site to protein biosynthesis is still poorly understood in molecular terms. Previous studies suggested an important functional interaction of the terminal residue A76 of E-tRNA with the nucleobase of the universally conserved 23S rRNA residue C2394. Using an atomic mutagenesis approach to introduce non-natural nucleoside analogs into the 23S rRNA, we could show that removal of the nucleobase or the ribose 2'-OH at C2394 had no effect on protein synthesis. On the other hand, our data disclose the importance of the highly conserved E-site base pair G2421-C2395 for effective translation. Ribosomes with a disrupted G2421-C2395 base pair are defective in tRNA binding to the E-site. This results in an impaired translation of genuine mRNAs, while homo-polymeric templates are not affected. Cumulatively our data emphasize the importance of E-site tRNA occupancy and in particular the intactness of the 23S rRNA base pair G2421-C2395 for productive protein biosynthesis.

(Table 2) Weight percent organic carbon from ODP Site 138-847

As the length of marine cores increases and sampling intervals decrease, the need for rapid and inexpensive means of determining sediment composition has become apparent. In this study we examine one potentially useful technique for assessing compositional changes in marine cores, diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry. We examined near-ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared reflectance spectra from five data sets. Each data set consists of calibration samples and test samples. The calibration samples' spectra were related to a sediment component using multiple linear regression. The resulting regression or calibration equations were then evaluated using the test samples. Calibration equations were written relating spectra to several sediment components incduding carbonate (Atlantic and east Pacific Rise ODP Site 847), organic carbon content (Atlantic and east Pacific Rise), and opal content (east Pacific Rise). The correlation coefficients for the regression equations ranged from a high of 0.99 for carbonate and opal at ODP Site 847 to a low of 0.97 for Atlantic carbonate indicating that spectral variations are highly correlated to sediment composition. All of the equations include a substantial number of variables from shorter visible and longer near ultraviolet wavelengths suggesting that these wavelengths are especially important for devices designed specifically to scan marine cores. Although equations for estimating organic and carbonate content appear independent of other sediment components, the opal equation is strongly dependent on carbonate content indicating that opal concentration is correlated to carbonate content. Tests of the calibration equations indicated that all our equations reasonably estimate the pattern of changes, either down core or in surface sediments. Where our spectral estimates have difficulty is with absolute values, frequently over or underestimating observed values by a substantial amount. Within these limitations diffuse reflectance spectrophotometry can be a useful tool for characterizing marine cores and as our understanding of the relationship between spectra and mineralogy improves so will estimates of absolute values.

Heavy metal and petroleum product concentrations in waters at the Obskaya 1 drill site

During recent years, the basins of the Kara Sea (Kamennomysskaya, Obskaya, and Chugor'yakhinskaya structures) in the Russian Federation have been considered as promising regions for oil and gas exploration and, simultaneously, as possible paths of relatively cheap pipeline and tanker transportation of hydrocarbons projected for recovery. On the other hand, exploration operations, recovery, and transportation of gas pose a considerable risk of accidents and environmental pollution, which causes a justified concern about the future state of the ecological system of the Gulf of Ob and the adjoining parts of the Kara Sea. Therefore, regular combined environmental investigations (monitoring) are the most important factor for estimating the current state and forecasting the dynamics of the development of estuary systems. The program of investigations (schedule, station network, and measured parameters) is standardized in accordance with the international practice of such work and accounts for the experience of monitoring studies of Russian and foreign researchers. Two measurement sessions were performed during ecological investigations in the region of exploration drilling: at the beginning at final stage of drilling operations and borehole testing; in addition, natural parameters were determined in various parts of the Ob estuary before the beginning of investigations. Hydrophysical and hydrochemical characteristics of the water medium were determined and bottom sediments and water were analyzed for various pollutants (petroleum products, heavy metals, and radionuclides). The forms of heavy-metal occurrence in river and sea waters were determined by the method of continuous multistep filtration, which is based on water component fractionation on membrane filters of various pore sizes. These investigations revealed environmental pollution by chemical substances during the initial stage of drilling operations, when remains of fuels, oils, and solutions could be spilled, and part of the chemical pollutants could enter the environment. Owing to horizontal and vertical turbulent diffusion, wave mixing, and the effect of the general direction of currents in the Ob estuary from south to north, areas are formed with elevated concentrations of the analyzed elements and compounds. However, the concentration levels of chemical pollutants are practically no higher than the maximum admissible concentrations, and their substantial dissipation to the average regional background contents can be expected in the near future. Our investigations allowed us to determine in detail the parameters of anthropogenic pollution in the regions affected by hydrocarbon exploration drilling in the Obskii and Kamennomysskii prospects in the Gulf of Ob and estimate their influence on the ecological state of the basin of the Ob River and the Kara Sea on the whole.