Candida spp. isolated from inpatients, the environment, and health practitioners in the Pediatric Unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiai Medical College, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: This study aimed to isolate and identify Candida spp. from the environment, health practitioners, and patients with the presumptive diagnosis of candidiasis in the Pediatric Unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiai Medical College, to verify the production of enzymes regarded as virulence factors, and to determine how susceptible the isolated samples from patients with candidiasis are to antifungal agents. Methods: Between March and November of 2008 a total of 283 samples were taken randomly from the environment and from the hands of health staff, and samples of all the suspected cases of Candida spp. hospital-acquired infection were collected and selected by the Infection Control Committee. The material was processed and the yeast genus Candida was isolated and identified by physiological, microscopic, and macroscopic attributes. Results: The incidence of Candida spp. in the environment and employees was 19.2%. The most frequent species were C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis among the workers, C. guilliermondii and C. tropicalis in the air, C. lusitanae on the contact surfaces, and C. tropicalis and C. guilliermondii in the climate control equipment. The college hospital had 320 admissions, of which 13 (4%) presented Candida spp. infections; three of them died, two being victims of a C. tropicalis infection and the remaining one of C. albicans. All the Candida spp. in the isolates evidenced sensitivity to amphotericin B, nystatin, and fluconazole. Conclusions: The increase in the rate of hospital-acquired infections caused by Candida spp. indicates the need to take larger measures regarding recurrent control of the environment.

Candida spp. isolated from inpatients, the environment, and health practitioners in the pediatric unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiaí Medical College, state of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to isolate and identify Candida spp. from the environment, health practitioners, and patients with the presumptive diagnosis of candidiasis in the Pediatric Unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiaí Medical College, to verify the production of enzymes regarded as virulence factors, and to determine how susceptible the isolated samples from patients with candidiasis are to antifungal agents. METHODS: Between March and November of 2008 a total of 283 samples were taken randomly from the environment and from the hands of health staff, and samples of all the suspected cases of Candida spp. hospital-acquired infection were collected and selected by the Infection Control Committee. The material was processed and the yeast genus Candida was isolated and identified by physiological, microscopic, and macroscopic attributes. RESULTS: The incidence of Candida spp. in the environment and employees was 19.2%. The most frequent species were C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis among the workers, C. guilliermondii and C. tropicalis in the air, C. lusitanae on the contact surfaces, and C. tropicalis and C. guilliermondii in the climate control equipment. The college hospital had 320 admissions, of which 13 (4%) presented Candida spp. infections; three of them died, two being victims of a C. tropicalis infection and the remaining one of C. albicans. All the Candida spp. in the isolates evidenced sensitivity to amphotericin B, nystatin, and fluconazole. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the rate of hospital-acquired infections caused by Candida spp. indicates the need to take larger measures regarding recurrent control of the environment.

Multiobjective engineering design optimization problems: a sensitivity analysis approach

This paper proposes two new approaches for the sensitivity analysis of multiobjective design optimization problems whose performance functions are highly susceptible to small variations in the design variables and/or design environment parameters. In both methods, the less sensitive design alternatives are preferred over others during the multiobjective optimization process. While taking the first approach, the designer chooses the design variable and/or parameter that causes uncertainties. The designer then associates a robustness index with each design alternative and adds each index as an objective function in the optimization problem. For the second approach, the designer must know, a priori, the interval of variation in the design variables or in the design environment parameters, because the designer will be accepting the interval of variation in the objective functions. The second method does not require any law of probability distribution of uncontrollable variations. Finally, the authors give two illustrative examples to highlight the contributions of the paper.

Toxoplasma gondii in animals and the environment

Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular parasite capable of infecting virtually all warm-blooded species, including humans, but cats are the only definitive hosts. Humans or animals acquire T. gondii infection by ingesting food or water contaminated with sporulated oocysts or by ingesting tissue cysts containing bradyzoites. Toxoplasmosis has the highest human incidence among zoonotic parasitic diseases, but it is still considered an underreported zoonosis. The importance of T. gondii primary infection in livestock is related to the ability of the parasite to produce tissue cysts in infected animals, which may represent important sources of infection for humans. Consumption of undercooked mutton and pork are considered important sources of human Toxoplasma gondii. The first aim of this thesis was to develop a rapid and sensitive in- house indirect ELISA for the detection of antibodies against T. gondii in sheep sera. ROC-curve analysis showed high discriminatory power (AUC=0.999) and high sensitivity (99.4%) and specificity (99.8%) of the method. The ELISA was used to test a batch of sheep sera (375) collected in the Forli-Cesena district. The overall prevalence was estimated at 41.9% demonstrating that T. gondii infection is widely distributed in sheep reared in Forli-Cesena district. Since the epidemiological impact of waterborne transmission route of T.gondii to humans is now thought to be more significant than previously believed, the second aim of the thesis was to evaluate PCR based methods for detecting T. gondii DNA in raw and finished drinking water samples collected in Scotland. Samples were tested using a quantitative PCR on 529 bp repetitive elements. Only one raw water sample (0.3%), out of the 358 examined, tested T. gondii positive demonstrating that there is no evidence that tap water is a source of Toxoplasma infection in Scotland.

Potential vorticity and moisture in extratropical cyclones : climatology and sensitivity experiments

The development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced PV, and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. In the mature stage they become vertically aligned and form a “PV tower” associated with strong cyclonic circulation. This paradigm of extratropical cyclone development provides the basis of this thesis, which will use a climatological dataset and numerical model experiments to investigate the amplitude of the three anomalies and the processes leading in particular to the formation of the diabatically produced low-tropospheric PV anomaly.rnrnThe first part of this study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the three PV anomalies in mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies ∆θ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies ∆PV are calculated at the time of the cyclones’ minimum SLP and during the intensification phase 24 hours before in a vertical cylinder with a radius of 200 km around the surface cyclone center. To compare the characteristics of the cyclones, they are grouped according to their location (8 regions) and intensity, where the central SLP is used as a measure of intensity. Composites of ∆PV profiles and ∆θ are calculated for each region and intensity class at the time of minimum SLP and during the cyclone intensification phase.rnrnDuring the cyclones’ development stage the amplitudes of all three anomalies increase on average. In the mature stage all three anomalies are typically larger for intense than for weak winter cyclones [e.g., 0.6 versus 0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU) at lower levels, and 1.5 versus 0.5 PVU at upper levels].rnThe regional variability of the cyclones’ vertical structure and the profile evolution is prominent (cyclones in some regions are more sensitive to the amplitude of a particular anomaly than in other regions). Values of ∆θ and low-level ∆PV are on average larger in the western parts of the oceans than in the eastern parts. In addition, a large seasonal variability can be identified, with fewer and weaker cyclones especially in the summer, associated with higher low-tropospheric PV values, but also with a higher tropopause and much weaker surface potential temperature anomalies (compared to winter cyclones).rnrnIn the second part, we were interested in the diabatic low-level part of PV towers. Evaporative sources were identified of moisture that was involved in PV production through condensation. Lagrangian backward trajectories were calculated from the region with high PV values at low-levels in the cyclones. PV production regions were identified along these trajectories and from these regions a new set of backward trajectories was calculated and moisture uptakes were traced along them. The main contribution from surface evaporation to the specific humidity of the trajectories is collected 12-72 hours prior to therntime of PV production. The uptake region for weaker cyclones with less PV in the centre is typically more localized with reduced uptake values compared to intense cyclones. However, in a qualitative sense uptakes and other variables along single trajectories do not vary much between cyclones of different intensity in different regions.rnrnA sensitivity study with the COSMO model comprises the last part of this work. The study aims at investigating the influence of synthetic moisture modification in the cyclone environment in different stages of its development. Moisture was eliminated in three regions, which were identified as important moisture source regions for PV production. Moisture suppression affected the cyclone the most in its early phase. It led to cyclolysis shortly after its genesis. Nevertheles, a new cyclone formed on the other side of a dry box and developed relatively quickly. Also in other experiments, moisture elimination led to strong intensity reduction of the surface cyclone, limited upper-level development, and delayed or missing interaction between the two.rnrnIn summary, this thesis provides novel insight into the structure of different intensity categories of extratropical cyclones from a PV perspective, which corroborates the findings from a series of previous case studies. It reveals that all three PV anomalies are typically enhanced for more intense cyclones, with important regional differences concerning the relative amplitude of the three anomalies. The moisture source analysis is the first of this kind to study the evaporation-condensation cycle related to the intensification of extratropical cyclones. Interestingly, most of the evaporation occurs during the 3 days prior to the time of maximum cyclone intensity and typically extends over fairly large areas along the track of the cyclone. The numerical model case study complements this analysis by analyzing the impact of regionally confined moisture sources for the evolution of the cyclone.

The sensitivity of the photostationary state of NOx and its implication for the oxidation capacity in a semi-rural and boreal forest region

Für das Vermögen der Atmosphäre sich selbst zu reinigen spielen Stickstoffmonoxid (NO) und Stickstoffdioxid (NO2) eine bedeutende Rolle. Diese Spurengase bestimmen die photochemische Produktion von Ozon (O3) und beeinflussen das Vorkommen von Hydroxyl- (OH) und Nitrat-Radikalen (NO3). Wenn tagsüber ausreichend Solarstrahlung und Ozon vorherrschen, stehen NO und NO2 in einem schnellen photochemischen Gleichgewicht, dem „Photostationären Gleichgewichtszustand“ (engl.: photostationary state). Die Summe von NO und NO2 wird deshalb als NOx zusammengefasst. Vorhergehende Studien zum photostationären Gleichgewichtszustand von NOx umfassen Messungen an unterschiedlichsten Orten, angefangen bei Städten (geprägt von starken Luftverschmutzungen), bis hin zu abgeschiedenen Regionen (geprägt von geringeren Luftverschmutzungen). Während der photochemische Kreislauf von NO und NO2 unter Bedingungen erhöhter NOx-Konzentrationen grundlegend verstanden ist, gibt es in ländlicheren und entlegenen Regionen, welche geprägt sind von niedrigeren NOx-Konzetrationen, signifikante Lücken im Verständnis der zugrundeliegenden Zyklierungsprozesse. Diese Lücken könnten durch messtechnische NO2-Interferenzen bedingt sein - insbesondere bei indirekten Nachweismethoden, welche von Artefakten beeinflusst sein können. Bei sehr niedrigen NOx-Konzentrationen und wenn messtechnische NO2-Interferenzen ausgeschlossen werden können, wird häufig geschlussfolgert, dass diese Verständnislücken mit der Existenz eines „unbekannten Oxidationsmittels“ (engl.: unknown oxidant) verknüpft ist. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird der photostationäre Gleichgewichtszustand von NOx analysiert, mit dem Ziel die potenzielle Existenz bislang unbekannter Prozesse zu untersuchen. Ein Gasanalysator für die direkte Messung von atmosphärischem NO¬2 mittels laserinduzierter Fluoreszenzmesstechnik (engl. LIF – laser induced fluorescence), GANDALF, wurde neu entwickelt und während der Messkampagne PARADE 2011 erstmals für Feldmessungen eingesetzt. Die Messungen im Rahmen von PARADE wurden im Sommer 2011 in einem ländlich geprägten Gebiet in Deutschland durchgeführt. Umfangreiche NO2-Messungen unter Verwendung unterschiedlicher Messtechniken (DOAS, CLD und CRD) ermöglichten einen ausführlichen und erfolgreichen Vergleich von GANDALF mit den übrigen NO2-Messtechniken. Weitere relevante Spurengase und meteorologische Parameter wurden gemessen, um den photostationären Zustand von NOx, basierend auf den NO2-Messungen mit GANDALF in dieser Umgebung zu untersuchen. Während PARADE wurden moderate NOx Mischungsverhältnisse an der Messstelle beobachtet (10^2 - 10^4 pptv). Mischungsverhältnisse biogener flüchtige Kohlenwasserstoffverbindungen (BVOC, engl.: biogenic volatile organic compounds) aus dem umgebenden Wald (hauptsächlich Nadelwald) lagen in der Größenordnung 10^2 pptv vor. Die Charakteristiken des photostationären Gleichgewichtszustandes von NOx bei niedrigen NOx-Mischungsverhältnissen (10 - 10^3 pptv) wurde für eine weitere Messstelle in einem borealen Waldgebiet während der Messkampagne HUMPPA-COPEC 2010 untersucht. HUMPPA–COPEC–2010 wurde im Sommer 2010 in der SMEARII-Station in Hyytiälä, Süd-Finnland, durchgeführt. Die charakteristischen Eigenschaften des photostationären Gleichgewichtszustandes von NOx in den beiden Waldgebieten werden in dieser Arbeit verglichen. Des Weiteren ermöglicht der umfangreiche Datensatz - dieser beinhaltet Messungen von relevanten Spurengasen für die Radikalchemie (OH, HO2), sowie der totalen OH-Reaktivität – das aktuelle Verständnis bezüglich der NOx-Photochemie unter Verwendung von einem Boxmodell, in welches die gemessenen Daten als Randbedingungen eingehen, zu überprüfen und zu verbessern. Während NOx-Konzentrationen in HUMPPA-COPEC 2010 niedriger sind, im Vergleich zu PARADE 2011 und BVOC-Konzentrationen höher, sind die Zyklierungsprozesse von NO und NO2 in beiden Fällen grundlegend verstanden. Die Analyse des photostationären Gleichgewichtszustandes von NOx für die beiden stark unterschiedlichen Messstandorte zeigt auf, dass potenziell unbekannte Prozesse in keinem der beiden Fälle vorhanden sind. Die aktuelle Darstellung der NOx-Chemie wurde für HUMPPA-COPEC 2010 unter Verwendung des chemischen Mechanismus MIM3* simuliert. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation sind konsistent mit den Berechnungen basierend auf dem photostationären Gleichgewichtszustand von NOx.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Flow separation and roughness lengths over large bedforms in a tidal environment

This study characterises the shape of the flow separation zone (FSZ) and wake region over large asymmetric bedforms under tidal flow conditions. High resolution bathymetry, flow velocity and turbulence data were measured along two parallel transects in a tidal channel covered with bedforms. The field data are used to verify the applicability of a numerical model for a systematic study using the Delft3D modelling system and test the model sensitivity to roughness length. Three experiments are then conducted to investigate how the FSZ size and wake extent vary depending on tidally-varying flow conditions, water levels and bathymetry. During the ebb, a large FSZ occurs over the steep lee side of each bedform. During the flood, no flow separation develops over the bedforms having a flat crest; however, a small FSZ is observed over the steepest part of the crest of some bedforms, where the slope is locally up to 15°. Over a given bedform morphology and constant water levels, no FSZ occurs for velocity magnitudes smaller than 0.1 m s**-1; as the flow accelerates, the FSZ reaches a stable size for velocity magnitudes greater than 0.4 m s**-1. The shape of the FSZ is not influenced by changes in water levels. On the other hand, variations in bed morphology, as recorded from the high-resolution bathymetry collected during the tidal cycle, influence the size and position of the FSZ: a FSZ develops only when the maximum lee side slope over a horizontal distance of 5 m is greater than 10°. The height and length of the wake region are related to the length of the FSZ. The total roughness along the transect lines is an order of magnitude larger during the ebb than during the flood due to flow direction in relation to bedform asymmetry: during the ebb, roughness is created by the large bedforms because a FSZ and wake develops over the steep lee side. The results add to the understanding of hydrodynamics of natural bedforms in a tidal environment and may be used to better parameterise small-scale processes in large-scale studies.

Sensitivity to ocean acidification parallels natural pCO2 gradients experienced by Arctic copepods under winter sea ice

The Arctic Ocean is a bellwether for ocean acidification, yet few direct Arctic studies have been carried out and limited observations exist, especially in winter. We present unique under-ice physicochemical data showing the persistence of a mid water column area of high CO2 and low pH through late winter, Zooplankton data demonstrating that the dominant copepod species are distributed across these different physicochemical conditions, and empirical data demonstrating that these copepods show sensitivity to pCO2 that parallels the range of natural pCO2 they experience through their daily vertical migration behavior. Our data, collected as part of the Catlin Arctic Survey, provide unique insight into the link between environmental variability, behavior, and an organism's physiological tolerance to CO2 in key Arctic biota.

Response of benthic foraminifera to ocean acidification in their natural sediment environment: a long-term culturing experiment

Calcifying foraminifera are expected to be endangered by ocean acidification; however, the response of a complete community kept in natural sediment and over multiple generations under controlled laboratory conditions has not been constrained to date. During 6 months of incubation, foraminiferal assemblages were kept and treated in natural sediment with pCO2-enriched seawater of 430, 907, 1865 and 3247 µatm pCO2. The fauna was dominated by Ammonia aomoriensis and Elphidium species, whereas agglutinated species were rare. After 6 months of incubation, pore water alkalinity was much higher in comparison to the overlying seawater. Consequently, the saturation state of Omega calc was much higher in the sediment than in the water column in nearly all pCO2 treatments and remained close to saturation. As a result, the life cycle (population density, growth and reproduction) of living assemblages varied markedly during the experimental period, but was largely unaffected by the pCO2 treatments applied. According to the size-frequency distribution, we conclude that foraminifera start reproduction at a diameter of 250 µm. Mortality of living Ammonia aomoriensis was unaffected, whereas size of large and dead tests decreased with elevated pCO2 from 285 µm (pCO2 from 430 to 1865 µatm) to 258 µm (pCO2 3247 µatm). The total organic content of living Ammonia aomoriensis has been determined to be 4.3% of CaCO3 weight. Living individuals had a calcium carbonate production rate of 0.47 g/m**2/a, whereas dead empty tests accumulated a rate of 0.27 g /m**2/a. Although Omega calc was close to 1, approximately 30% of the empty tests of Ammonia aomoriensis showed dissolution features at high pCO2 of 3247 µatm during the last 2 months of incubation. In contrast, tests of the subdominant species, Elphidium incertum, stayed intact. Our results emphasize that the sensitivity to ocean acidification of the endobenthic foraminifera Ammonia aomoriensis in their natural sediment habitat is much lower compared to the experimental response of specimens isolated from the sediment.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.

Seawater acidification by CO2 in a coastal lagoon environment: Effects on life history traits of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis

The carbonate chemistry of seawater from the Ria Formosa lagoon was experimentally manipulated, by diffusing pure CO2, to attain two reduced pH levels, by -0.3 and -0.6 pH units, relative to unmanipulated seawater. After 84 days of exposure, no differences were detected in terms of growth (somatic or shell) or mortality of juvenile mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis. The naturally elevated total alkalinity of the seawater (= 3550 µmol/kg) prevented under-saturation of CaCO3, even under pCO2 values exceeding 4000 µatm, attenuating the detrimental effects on the carbonate supply-side. Even so, variations in shell weight showed that net calcification was reduced under elevated CO2 and reduced pH, although the magnitude and significance of this effect varied among size-classes. Most of the loss of shell material probably occurred as post-deposition dissolution in the internal aragonitic nacre layer. Our results show that, even when reared under extreme levels of CO2-induced acidification, juvenile M. galloprovincialis can continue to calcify and grow in this coastal lagoon environment. The complex responses of bivalves to ocean acidification suggest a large degree of interspecific and intraspecific variability in their sensitivity to this type of perturbation. Further research is needed to assess the generality of these patterns and to disentangle the relative contributions of acclimation to local variations in seawater chemistry and genetic adaptation.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.