Distributions of lesser mealworm (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Distributions of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in southeastern Queensland, Australia, were studied over two flocks. Larvae were the predominant stage recorded. Significantly low densities occurred in open locations and under drinker cups where chickens had complete access, whereas high densities were found under feed pans and along house edges where chicken access was restricted. For each flock, lesser mealworm numbers increased at all locations over the first 14 d, especially under feed pans and along house edges, peaking at 26 d and then declining over the final 28 d. A life stage profile per flock was devised that consisted of the following: beetles emerge from the earth floor at the beginning of each flock, and females lay eggs, producing larvae that peak in numbers at 3 wk; after a further 3 to 4 wk, larvae leave litter to pupate in the earth floor, and beetles then emerge by the end of the flock time. Removing old litter from the brooder section at the end of a flock did not greatly reduce mealworm numbers over the subsequent flock, but it seemed to prevent numbers increasing, while an increase in numbers in the grow-out section was recorded after reusing litter. Areas under feed pans and along house edges accounted for 5% of the total house area, but approximately half the estimated total number of lesser mealworms in the broiler house occurred in these locations. The results of this study will be used to determine optimal deployment of site-specific treatments for lesser mealworm control.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Dynamics of dense sheared granular flows. Part II. The relative velocity distributions

The distribution of relative velocities between colliding particles in shear flows of inelastic spheres is analysed in the Volume fraction range 0.4-0.64. Particle interactions are considered to be due to instantaneous binary collisions, and the collision model has a normal coefficient of restitution e(n) (negative of the ratio of the post- and pre-collisional relative velocities of the particles along the line joining the centres) and a tangential coefficient of restitution e(t) (negative of the ratio of post- and pre-collisional velocities perpendicular to line joining the centres). The distribution or pre-collisional normal relative velocities (along the line Joining the centres of the particles) is Found to be an exponential distribution for particles with low normal coefficient of restitution in the range 0.6-0.7. This is in contrast to the Gaussian distribution for the normal relative velocity in all elastic fluid in the absence of shear. A composite distribution function, which consists of an exponential and a Gaussian component, is proposed to span the range of inelasticities considered here. In the case of roughd particles, the relative velocity tangential to the surfaces at contact is also evaluated, and it is found to be close to a Gaussian distribution even for highly inelastic particles.Empirical relations are formulated for the relative velocity distribution. These are used to calculate the collisional contributions to the pressure, shear stress and the energy dissipation rate in a shear flow. The results of the calculation were round to be in quantitative agreement with simulation results, even for low coefficients of restitution for which the predictions obtained using the Enskog approximation are in error by an order of magnitude. The results are also applied to the flow down an inclined plane, to predict the angle of repose and the variation of the volume fraction with angle of inclination. These results are also found to be in quantitative agreement with previous simulations.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Electron energy distributions and transport coefficients in N2 in E times B fields

Using the concept of energy-dependent effective field intensity, electron transport coefficients in nitrogen have been determined in E times B fields (E = electric field intensity, B = magnetic flux density) by the numerical solution of the Boltzmann transport equation for the energy distribution of electrons. It has been observed that as the value of B/p (p = gas pressure) is increased from zero, the perpendicular drift velocity increased linearly at first, reaches a maximum value, and then decreases with increasing B/p. In general, the electron mean energy is found to be a function of Eavet/p( Eavet = averaged effective electric field intensity) only, but the other transport coefficients, such as transverse drift velocity, perpendicular drift velocity, and the Townsend ionization coefficient, are functions of both E/p and B/p.

Wigner distributions for finite-state systems without redundant phase-point operators

We set up Wigner distributions for N-state quantum systems following a Dirac-inspired approach. In contrast to much of the work in this study, requiring a 2N x 2N phase space, particularly when N is even, our approach is uniformly based on an N x N phase-space grid and thereby avoids the necessity of having to invoke a `quadrupled' phase space and hence the attendant redundance. Both N odd and even cases are analysed in detail and it is found that there are striking differences between the two. While the N odd case permits full implementation of the marginal property, the even case does so only in a restricted sense. This has the consequence that in the even case one is led to several equally good definitions of the Wigner distributions as opposed to the odd case where the choice turns out to be unique.

Convective heat-transfer rate distributions over a missile shaped body flying at hypersonic speeds

Experiments are carried out with air as the test gas to obtain the surface convective heating rate on a missile shaped body flying at hypersonic speeds. The effect of fins on the surface heating rates of missile frustum is also investigated. The tests are performed in a hypersonic shock tunnel at stagnation enthalpy of 2 MJ/kg and zero degree angle of attack. The experiments are conducted at flow Mach number of 5.75 and 8 with an effective test time of 1 ms. The measured stagnation-point heat-transfer data compares well with the theoretical value estimated using Fay and Riddell expression. The measured heat-transfer rate with fin configuration is slightly higher than that of model without fin. The normalized values of experimentally measured heat transfer rate and Stanton number compare well with the numerically estimated results. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stochastic simulations of the origins and implications of long-tailed distributions in gene expression

Gene expression noise results in protein number distributions ranging from long-tailed to Gaussian. We show how long-tailed distributions arise from a stochastic model of the constituent chemical reactions and suggest that, in conjunction with cooperative switches, they lead to more sensitive selection of a subpopulation of cells with high protein number than is possible with Gaussian distributions. Single-cell-tracking experiments are presented to validate some of the assumptions of the stochastic simulations. We also examine the effect of DNA looping on the shape of protein distributions. We further show that when switches are incorporated in the regulation of a gene via a feedback loop, the distributions can become bimodal. This might explain the bimodal distribution of certain morphogens during early embryogenesis.

Transverse momentum and pseudorapidity distributions of charged hadrons in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 0.9 and 2.36 TeV

Measurements of inclusive charged-hadron transverse-momentum and pseudorapidity distributions are presented for proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 0.9 and 2.36 TeV. The data were collected with the CMS detector during the LHC commissioning in December 2009. For non-single-diffractive interactions, the average charged-hadron transverse momentum is measured to be 0.46 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 0.9 TeV and 0.50 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 2.36 TeV, for pseudorapidities between -2.4 and +2.4. At these energies, the measured pseudorapidity densities in the central region, dN(charged)/d(eta) for |eta|

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

Optimum aperture distributions in the presence of blockage

A method is presented for optimising the performance indices of aperture antennas in the presence of blockage. An N-dimensional objective function is formed for maximising the directivity factor of a circular aperture with blockage under sidelobe-level constraints, and is minimised using the simplex search method. Optimum aperture distributions are computed for a circular aperture with blockage of circular geometry that gives the maximum directivity factor under sidelobe-level constraints.

Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.