Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Gender Differences in Life Expectancy and Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among Older Adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Research on life expectancy has demonstrated the negative impact of disability on the health of older adults and its differential effects on women as evidenced by their higher disabled life expectancy (DLE). The goal of the present study was to investigate gender differences in total life expectancy (TLE), disability-free life expectancy (DFLE), and DLE; examine gender differences on personal care assistance among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil; and discuss the implications for public policies. Methods: The sample was drawn from two waves (2000, 2006) of the dataset of Salud, Bienestar, y Envejecimiento, a large longitudinal study conducted in Sao Paulo (n = 2,143). The study assessed disability using the activities of daily living (ADL). The interpolation of Markov Chain method was used to estimate gender differences in TLE, DLE, and DFLE. Findings: TLE at age 60 years was approximately 5 years longer for women than men. Women aged 60 years were expected to live 28% of their remaining lives twice the percentage for men with at least one ADL disability. These women also lived more years (M = 0.71, SE = 0.42) with three or more ADL disabilities than men (M = 0.82, SE = 0.16). In terms of personal care assistance, women received more years of assistance than men. Conclusion: Among older adults in Sao Paulo, women lived longer lives but experienced a higher and more severe disability burden than men. In addition, although women received more years of personal assistance than men, women experienced more unmet care assistance needs. Copyright (C) 2011 by the Jacobs Institute of Women`s Health. Published by Elsevier. Inc.

Very preterm infants in Finland - Use of health care services and economic consequences during the first five years of life

The aim of this thesis was to study the health, the hospitalisations, and the use of communal health care services in very preterm children during the first five years of life. In addition, the effect of very preterm birth and prematurity-related morbidities on the costs of hospitalisations, other health care services and the cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) were studied. This population-based study included all very preterm children (gestational age (GA) <32 weeks or birth weight<1501g, N=2 064) and full-term controls (GA 37+0−41+6, N=200 609) born in Finland during 2000-2003. The data sources included national register data, costing data from the participating hospitals and parental questionnaires. This study showed that most very preterm infants born in Finland survived without prematurity-related morbidities diagnosed during the first years of life. They required relatively little hospital care after the initial discharge, which accounted for the vast majority of the total four-year hospitalisation costs. However, a minority of children born very preterm later developing morbidities had a long initial length of stay and more re-admissions and outpatient visits during the five-year follow-up period. In particular, the number and costs of non-emergency outpatient visits were considerable in individuals with prematurity-related morbidities. The need and costs of hospitalisations decreased clearly with each follow-up year, even in individuals with morbidities. The health-care related costs during the fifth year of life in children born very preterm without prematurity-related morbidities were close to the costs in infants born healthy at term. The cost per QALY of 19,245 € was at an acceptable level already by four years of age in the very preterm population as a whole. Prematurity-related later morbidities and decreasing GA increased the costs per QALY. As the initial hospital stay accounted for a great majority of the total four-year costs, and the costs of hospitalisation decreased with each follow-up year, the cost per QALY is likely to decrease with age. In conclusion, the majority of costs arising after the initial hospitalisation were associated with morbidities related to prematurity. Therefore offering high-quality neonatal care to prevent later morbidities in very preterm survivors has a long-term impact on the cost per QALY. In addition, this study indicates that when estimating the costs of prematurity after the first year of life, one should calculate not only the hospitalisation costs, but also other costs for social welfare services, primary care, and therapies, as these exceed the hospitalisation costs in very preterm infants during the fifth year of life.

Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY DUE TO AIDS: A STUDY OF BURDEN OF DISEASE AT A MUNICIPAL LEVEL

Introduction: The purpose of measuring the burden of disease involves aggregating morbidity and mortality components into a single indicator, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to measure how much and how people live and suffer the impact of a disease. Objective: To estimate the global burden of disease due to AIDS in a municipality of southern Brazil. Methods: An ecological study was conducted in 2009 to examine the incidence and AIDS-related deaths among the population residing in the city of Tubarao, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Data from the Mortality Information System in the National Health System was used to calculate the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality. The calculation was based on the difference between a standardized life expectancy and age at death, with a discount rate of 3% per year. Data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLD). The DALY was estimated by the sum of YLL and YLD. Indicator rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed by age and gender. Results: A total of 131 records were examined, and a 572.5 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 593.1 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The rate among men amounted to 780.7 DALYs/100,000, whereas among women the rate was 417.1 DALYs/100,000. The most affected age groups were 30-44 years for men and 60-69 years for women. Conclusion: The burden of disease due to AIDS in the city of Tubarao was relatively high when considering the global trend. The mortality component accounted for more than 90% of the burden of disease.

Measuring Avoidable Health Inequality with Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY)

In a series of papers (Tang, Chin and Rao, 2008; and Tang, Petrie and Rao 2006 & 2007), we have tried to improve on a mortality-based health status indicator, namely age-at-death (AAD), and its associated health inequality indicators that measure the distribution of AAD. The main contribution of these papers is to propose a frontier method to separate avoidable and unavoidable mortality risks. This has facilitated the development of a new indicator of health status, namely the Realization of Potential Life Years (RePLY). The RePLY measure is based on the concept of a “frontier country” that, by construction, has the lowest mortality risks for each age-sex group amongst all countries. The mortality rates of the frontier country are used as a proxy for the unavoidable mortality rates, and the residual between the observed mortality rates and the unavoidable mortality rates are considered as avoidable morality rates. In this approach, however, countries at different levels of development are benchmarked against the same frontier country without considering their heterogeneity. The main objective of the current paper is to control for national resources in estimating (conditional) unavoidable and avoidable mortality risks for individual countries. This allows us to construct a new indicator of health status – Realization of Conditional Potential Life Years (RCPLY). The paper presents empirical results from a dataset of life tables for 167 countries from the year 2000, compiled and updated by the World Health Organization. Measures of national average health status and health inequality based on RePLY and RCPLY are presented and compared.

Rôle de l'exercice dans l'approche multidisciplinaire de la lombalgie chronique

RÉSUMÉ L'exercice est utilisé dans le traitement de la lombalgie depuis plus de cent ans. La recherche dans ce domaine a commencé au milieu du XXème siècle puis s'est développée exponentiellement jusqu'à nos jours. La première étude de cette thèse a eu pour but de passer en revue cette abondante littérature scientifique. Il en est ressorti que l'exercice est un moyen efficace de prévention primaire et secondaire de la lombalgie. En tant que modalité de traitement, l'exercice permet de diminuer l'incapacité et la douleur et d'améliorer la condition physique et le statut professionnel des patients lombalgiques subaigus et chroniques. Parmi les caractéristiques de l'exercice, la supervision est essentielle. Des investigations ultérieures sont nécessaires afin d'identifier des sous-groupes de patients répondant favorablement à d'autres caractéristiques de l'exercice. L'exercice est souvent utilisé dans l'optique de maintenir les résultats obtenus à la suite d'un traitement, bien que peu d'études s'y soient penchées. La deuxième partie de cette thèse a eu pour objectifs d'évaluer l'efficacité d'un programme d'exercice (PE) suivi par des patients lombalgiques chroniques ayant complété une restauration fonctionnelle multidisciplinaire (RFM), en comparaison avec le suivi classique (SC) consistant simplement à encourager les patients à adopter un quotidien aussi actif que possible par la suite. Les résultats ont montré que les améliorations obtenues au terme de RFM étaient maintenues par les deux groupes à un an de suivi. Bien qu'aucune différence n'ait été obtenue entre les deux groupes, seul le groupe PE améliorait significativement l'incapacité et l'endurance isométrique des muscles du tronc. Une analyse économique a ensuite été réalisée afin d'évaluer la rentabilité de PE. L'évaluation de la qualité de vie des patients au terme de RFM et à un an de suivi permettait d'estimer les années de vie ajustées par leur qualité (QALYs) gagnées par chaque groupe. Les coûts directs (visites chez le médecin, spécialiste, physio, autres) et indirects (jours d'absence au travail) étaient estimés avant RFM et à un an de suivi à l'aide d'un agenda. Aucune différence significative n'était obtenue entre les groupes. Une mince différence de QALYs en faveur de PE ne se traduisait néanmoins pas en bénéfices mesurables. La recherche future devrait s'attacher à identifier un ou des sous-groupe(s) de patients pour lesquels SC ne permet pas de maintenir à long terme les améliorations obtenues au terme de RFM, et pour lesquels l'efficacité thérapeutique et la rentabilité économique de PE pourraient être accrues. ABSTRACT Exercise is used to treat low back pain for over a hundred years. Research in this area began in the mid-twentieth century and then grew exponentially until nowadays. The first study of this thesis was aimed to review this abundant scientific literature. It showed that exercise is effective in the primary and secondary prevention of low back pain. As a modality of treatment, exercise can reduce disability and pain and improve physical fitness and professional status of patients with subacute and chronic low back pain. Among different exercise characteristics, supervision is essential. Further investigations are needed to identify subgroups of patients responding positively to other characteristics of exercise. Exercise is often used as a post-treatment modality in order to maintain results over time, although only a few studies addressed this issue directly. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to evaluate the effectiveness of an exercise program (EP) for patients with chronic low back pain who completed a functional multidisciplinary rehabilitation (FMR), compared to the routine follow-up (RF) which simply consisted of encouraging patients to adopt an active daily life thereafter. The results showed that improvements obtained at the end of FMR were maintained by both groups at one year follow-up. Although no difference was obtained between both groups, only the EP group significantly improved disability and isometric endurance of trunk muscles. An economic analysis was then carried out to assess the cost-effectiveness of EP. Based on the evaluation of patients' quality of life after FMR and at one year follow-up, an estimation of adjusted life years for their quality (QALYs) gained by each group was done. Direct costs (physician, specialist, physiotherapist, other therapists visits) and indirect costs (days off work) were measured before FMR and at one year follow-up using a cost diary. No significant difference was obtained between both groups. A slight difference in QALYs in favour of EP did yet not translate into measurable benefits. Future research should focus on identifying subgroups of patients for which RF is insufficient to reach long-term improvements after FMR, and for which the therapeutic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EP could be increased.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Cost-effectiveness of surgery in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in provision of essential surgical care as part of public health policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Relatively simple interventions have been shown to prevent death and disability. We reviewed the published literature to examine the cost-effectiveness of simple surgical interventions which could be made available at any district hospital, and compared these to standard public health interventions. METHODS: PubMed and EMBASE were searched using single and combinations of the search terms "disability adjusted life year" (DALY), "quality adjusted life year," "cost-effectiveness," and "surgery." Articles were included if they detailed the cost-effectiveness of a surgical intervention of relevance to a LMIC, which could be made available at any district hospital. Suitable articles with both cost and effectiveness data were identified and, where possible, data were extrapolated to enable comparison across studies. RESULTS: Twenty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria, representing 64 LMIC over 16 years of study. Interventions that were found to be cost-effective included cataract surgery (cost/DALY averted range US$5.06-$106.00), elective inguinal hernia repair (cost/DALY averted range US$12.88-$78.18), male circumcision (cost/DALY averted range US$7.38-$319.29), emergency cesarean section (cost/DALY averted range US$18-$3,462.00), and cleft lip and palate repair (cost/DALY averted range US$15.44-$96.04). A small district hospital with basic surgical services was also found to be highly cost-effective (cost/DALY averted 1 US$0.93), as were larger hospitals offering emergency and trauma surgery (cost/DALY averted US$32.78-$223.00). This compares favorably with other standard public health interventions, such as oral rehydration therapy (US$1,062.00), vitamin A supplementation (US$6.00-$12.00), breast feeding promotion (US$930.00), and highly active anti-retroviral therapy for HIV (US$922.00). CONCLUSIONS: Simple surgical interventions that are life-saving and disability-preventing should be considered as part of public health policy in LMIC. We recommend an investment in surgical care and its integration with other public health measures at the district hospital level, rather than investment in single disease strategies.

Calidad de vida en personas con hemofilia: una revisión de la literatura

Introducción: La hemofilia es una enfermedad poco frecuente; no obstante, los avances en los tratamientos de pacientes hemofílicos en las últimas décadas han generado cambios en su calidad de vida. Esto ha motivado el desarrollo de múltiples investigaciones al respecto. Objetivo: Revisar la literatura sobre la calidad de vida en el paciente hemofílico, producida en el periodo 2008-2012. Método: Se consultaron algunas bases de datos científicas utilizando como palabras clave “hemofilia” y “calidad de vida”. Se recopiló la información encontrada y se organizó según los objetivos propuestos en “factores negativos” y “factores protectores” de la calidad de vida a nivel fisiológico, psicosocial y cultural; “instrumentos para la evaluación de la calidad de vida” a nivel específico y general; y antecedentes empíricos de los últimos cinco años en los que se evaluara la calidad de vida o se realizara alguna intervención en la misma. Resultados: En general la información disponible sobre el comportamiento epidemiológico de la hemofilia es limitada. El interés por factores protectores y negativos es principalmente de tipo fisiológico, aunque se encontraron factores de tipo psicosocial y cultural, lo que indica la importancia de profundizar en esta temática. Existen pocos instrumentos especializados para la evaluación de la calidad de vida en hemofílicos. La evidencia empírica se centra en la evaluación. Conclusión: El estudio de la calidad de vida en pacientes hemofílicos amerita ser abordado de manera interdisciplinaria.

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

Intracranial haemorrhage due to late onset vitamin K deficiency bleeding in Hanoi province, Vietnam

Background: In many developing countries vitamin K prophylaxis is not routinely administered at birth. There are insufficient data to assess the cost effectiveness of its implementation in such countries. Objective: To estimate the burden of intracranial haemorrhage caused by late onset vitamin K deficiency bleeding in Hanoi, Vietnam. Methods: Cases of intracranial haemorrhage in infants aged 1 - 13 weeks were identified in Hanoi province for 5 years ( 1995 - 1999), and evidence for vitamin K deficiency was sought. The data were compared with those on vitamin K deficiency bleeding in developed countries and used to obtain an approximation to the incidence of intracranial haemorrhage caused by vitamin K deficiency bleeding in Hanoi. Results: The estimated incidence of late onset vitamin K deficiency bleeding in infants who received no prophylaxis was unexpectedly high ( 116 per 100 000 births) with 142 and 81 per 100 000 births in rural and urban areas respectively. Mortality was 9%. Of the surviving infants, 42% were neurologically abnormal at the time of hospital discharge. Identified associations were rural residence, male sex, and low birth weight. A significant reduction in the incidence was observed in urban Hanoi during 1998 and 1999, after vitamin K prophylaxis was introduced at one urban obstetric hospital. Conclusions: Vitamin K deficiency bleeding is a major public health problem in Hanoi. The results indicate that routine vitamin K prophylaxis would significantly reduce infant morbidity and mortality in Vietnam and, costing an estimated US$87 (pound48, E72) per disability adjusted life year saved, is a highly cost effective intervention.

Evaluating the efficiency of community-based HIV testing and counseling strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08