Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Testing for super-exogeneity in the presence of common deterministic shifts

This paper introduces the concept of common deterministic shifts (CDS). This concept is simple, intuitive and relates to the common structure of shifts or policy interventions. We propose a Reduced Rank technique to investigate the presence of CDS. The proposed testing procedure has standard asymptotics and good small-sample properties. We further link the concept of CDS to that of superexogeneity. It is shown that CDS tests can be constructed which allow to test for super-exogeneity. The Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the CDS test for super-exogeneity dominates testing procedures proposed in the literature.

A deterministic simulation study of embryo marker-assisted selection for age at first calving in Nellore (Bos indicus) beef cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Deterministic Solutions for a Step-growth Polymerization

Chain topology, including branch node, chain link and cross-link dynamics that contribute to the number of elastically active strands and junctions, are calculated using purely deterministic derivations. Solutions are not coupled to population density distributions. An eigenzeit transformation assists in the conversion of expressions derived by chemical reaction principles from time to conversion space, yielding transport phenomena type expressions where the rate of change in the molar concentrations of branch nodes with respect to conversion is expressed as functions of the fraction of reactive sites on precursors and reactants. Analogies are hypothesized to exist in cross-linking space that effectively distribute branch nodes with i reacted moieties between cross-links having j bonds extending to the gel. To obtain solutions, reacted sites on nodes or links with finite chain extensions are examined in terms of stoichiometry associated with covalent bonding. Solutions replicate published results based on Miller and Macosko’s recursive procedure and results obtained from truncated weighted sums of population density distributions as suggested by Flory.

Complex network classification using partially self-avoiding deterministic walks

Complex networks have attracted increasing interest from various fields of science. It has been demonstrated that each complex network model presents specific topological structures which characterize its connectivity and dynamics. Complex network classification relies on the use of representative measurements that describe topological structures. Although there are a large number of measurements, most of them are correlated. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents a new measurement for complex network classification based on partially self-avoiding walks. We validate the measurement on a data set composed by 40000 complex networks of four well-known models. Our results indicate that the proposed measurement improves correct classification of networks compared to the traditional ones. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4737515]

Detection of gait perturbations based on proprioceptive information. Application to Limit Cycle Walkers

Walking on irregular surfaces and in the presence of unexpected events is a challenging problem for bipedal machines. Up to date, their ability to cope with gait disturbances is far less successful than humans': Neither trajectory controlled robots, nor dynamic walking machines (Limit CycleWalkers) are able to handle them satisfactorily. On the contrary, humans reject gait perturbations naturally and efficiently relying on their sensory organs that, if needed, elicit a recovery action. A similar approach may be envisioned for bipedal robots and exoskeletons: An algorithm continuously observes the state of the walker and, if an unexpected event happens, triggers an adequate reaction. This paper presents a monitoring algorithm that provides immediate detection of any type of perturbation based solely on a phase representation of the normal walking of the robot. The proposed method was evaluated in a Limit Cycle Walker prototype that suffered push and trip perturbations at different moments of the gait cycle, providing 100% successful detections for the current experimental apparatus and adequately tuned parameters, with no false positives when the robot is walking unperturbed.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Texture descriptor based on partially self-avoiding deterministic walker on networks

Texture image analysis is an important field of investigation that has attracted the attention from computer vision community in the last decades. In this paper, a novel approach for texture image analysis is proposed by using a combination of graph theory and partially self-avoiding deterministic walks. From the image, we build a regular graph where each vertex represents a pixel and it is connected to neighboring pixels (pixels whose spatial distance is less than a given radius). Transformations on the regular graph are applied to emphasize different image features. To characterize the transformed graphs, partially self-avoiding deterministic walks are performed to compose the feature vector. Experimental results on three databases indicate that the proposed method significantly improves correct classification rate compared to the state-of-the-art, e.g. from 89.37% (original tourist walk) to 94.32% on the Brodatz database, from 84.86% (Gabor filter) to 85.07% on the Vistex database and from 92.60% (original tourist walk) to 98.00% on the plant leaves database. In view of these results, it is expected that this method could provide good results in other applications such as texture synthesis and texture segmentation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic texture segmentation based on deterministic partially self-avoiding walks

Recently there has been a considerable interest in dynamic textures due to the explosive growth of multimedia databases. In addition, dynamic texture appears in a wide range of videos, which makes it very important in applications concerning to model physical phenomena. Thus, dynamic textures have emerged as a new field of investigation that extends the static or spatial textures to the spatio-temporal domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dynamic texture segmentation based on automata theory and k-means algorithm. In this approach, a feature vector is extracted for each pixel by applying deterministic partially self-avoiding walks on three orthogonal planes of the video. Then, these feature vectors are clustered by the well-known k-means algorithm. Although the k-means algorithm has shown interesting results, it only ensures its convergence to a local minimum, which affects the final result of segmentation. In order to overcome this drawback, we compare six methods of initialization of the k-means. The experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach compared to the state-of-the-art segmentation methods.

Dynamic texture analysis and segmentation using deterministic partially self-avoiding walks

Dynamic texture is a recent field of investigation that has received growing attention from computer vision community in the last years. These patterns are moving texture in which the concept of selfsimilarity for static textures is extended to the spatiotemporal domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dynamic texture representation, that can be used for both texture analysis and segmentation. In this method, deterministic partially self-avoiding walks are performed in three orthogonal planes of the video in order to combine appearance and motion features. We validate our method on three applications of dynamic texture that present interesting challenges: recognition, clustering and segmentation. Experimental results on these applications indicate that the proposed method improves the dynamic texture representation compared to the state of the art.

Motion control and real-time systems: an approach to trajectory rebuilding in non-deterministic networks

Motion control is a sub-field of automation, in which the position and/or velocity of machines are controlled using some type of device. In motion control the position, velocity, force, pressure, etc., profiles are designed in such a way that the different mechanical parts work as an harmonious whole in which a perfect synchronization must be achieved. The real-time exchange of information in the distributed system that is nowadays an industrial plant plays an important role in order to achieve always better performance, better effectiveness and better safety. The network for connecting field devices such as sensors, actuators, field controllers such as PLCs, regulators, drive controller etc., and man-machine interfaces is commonly called fieldbus. Since the motion transmission is now task of the communication system, and not more of kinematic chains as in the past, the communication protocol must assure that the desired profiles, and their properties, are correctly transmitted to the axes then reproduced or else the synchronization among the different parts is lost with all the resulting consequences. In this thesis, the problem of trajectory reconstruction in the case of an event-triggered communication system is faced. The most important feature that a real-time communication system must have is the preservation of the following temporal and spatial properties: absolute temporal consistency, relative temporal consistency, spatial consistency. Starting from the basic system composed by one master and one slave and passing through systems made up by many slaves and one master or many masters and one slave, the problems in the profile reconstruction and temporal properties preservation, and subsequently the synchronization of different profiles in network adopting an event-triggered communication system, have been shown. These networks are characterized by the fact that a common knowledge of the global time is not available. Therefore they are non-deterministic networks. Each topology is analyzed and the proposed solution based on phase-locked loops adopted for the basic master-slave case has been improved to face with the other configurations.