Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Journalism Ethics : Arguments and Cases

Hirst and Patching's second edition of Journalism Ethics: Arguments and Cases provides a fully updated exploration of the theory and practice of ethics in journalism. The authors situate modern ethical dilemmas in their social and historical context, which encourages students to think critically about ethics across the study and practice of journalism. Using a unique political economy approach, the text provides students with a theoretical and philosophical understanding of the major ethical dilemmas in journalism today. It commences with a newly recast discussion of theoretical frameworks, which explains the complex concepts of ethics in clear and comprehensive terms. It then examines the 'fault lines' in modern journalism, such as the constant conflict between the public service role of the media, and a journalist's commercial imperative to make a profit. All chapters have been updated with new examples, and many new cases demonstrating the book's theoretical underpinnings have been drawn from 'yesterday's headlines'. These familiar cases encourage student engagement and classroom discussion, and archived cases will still be available to students on an Online Resource Centre. Expanded coverage of the 'War on Terror', issues of deception within journalism, and infotainment and digital technology is included.

Identifying the presence of psychopathy in the community

Aim: Researchers have suggested that approximately 1% of individuals with psychopathic tendencies can successfully function within the community, although there has been a lack of research to support this claim. The current study aimed to identify individuals with psychopathic tendencies within a community sample and furthermore the socio-demographic correlates of this community integrated psychopath (e.g. relationship stability, substance use, and employment status). Procedure: 300 participants completed the Self-Reported Psychopathy scale – version 3 which contains four core psychopathy subfactors: (a) Interpersonal Manipulation, (b) Callous Affect, (c) Erratic Lifestyle and (d) Criminal Tendencies as well as the Paulhus Deception Scales to explore the effect of impression management and self-deception on the identification of psychopathy. Findings: Results indicated that at least 1% of the current community displayed characteristics consistent with psychopathic tendencies. A series of bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted which indicated that gender, age and alcohol misuse were predictive of psychopathy scores for this sample. More specifically, younger males who tend to misuse alcohol were found to be most likely to have psychopathic tendencies. Interestingly, impression management and self-deception was not associated with such tendencies. Discussion: The results provide some support for the assertion that individuals with psychopathic tendencies can be identified within the community (regardless of impression management techniques) and that such tendencies are associated with specific socio-demographic characteristics.

Paradigm shifters : tricksters and cultural science

This paper seeks to link anthropological and economic treatments of the process of innovation and change, not only within a given ‘complex system’ (e.g. a cosmology; an industry) but also between systems (e.g. cultural and economic systems; but also divine and human systems). The role of the ‘Go-Between’ is considered, both in the anthropological figure of the Trickster (Hyde 1998) and in the Schumpeterian entrepreneur. Both figures parlay appetite (economic wants) into meaning (cultural signs). Both practice a form of creativity based on deception, ‘creative destruction’; renewal by disruption and needs-must adaptation. The disciplinary purpose of the paper is to try to bridge two otherwise disconnected domains – cultural studies and evolutionary economics – by showing that the traditional methods of the humanities (e.g. anthropological, textual and historical analysis) have explanatory force in the context of economic actions and complex-system evolutionary dynamics. The objective is to understand creative innovation as a general cultural attribute rather than one restricted only to accredited experts such as artists; thus to theorise creativity as a form of emergence for dynamic adaptive systems. In this context, change is led by ‘paradigm shifters’ – tricksters and entrepreneurs who create new meanings out of the clash of difference, including the clash of mutually untranslatable communication systems (language, media, culture).

Availability of advance visual information constrains association-football goalkeeping performance during penalty kicks

A pressing concern within the literature on anticipatory perceptual-motor behaviour is the lack of clarity on the applicability of data, observed under video-simulation task constraints, to actual performance in which actions are coupled to perception, as captured during in-situ experimental conditions. We developed an in-situ experimental paradigm which manipulated the duration of anticipatory visual information from a penalty taker’s actions to examine experienced goalkeepers’ vulnerability to deception for the penalty kick in association football. Irrespective of the penalty taker’s kick strategy, goalkeepers initiated movement responses earlier across consecutively earlier presentation points. Overall goalkeeping performance was better in non-deception trials than in deception conditions. In deception trials, the kinematic information presented up until the penalty taker initiated his/her kicking action had a negative effect on goalkeepers’ performance. It is concluded that goalkeepers are likely to benefit from not anticipating a penalty taker’s performance outcome based on information from the run-up, in preference to later information that emerges just before the initiation of the penalty taker’s kicking action.

On secrets, lies, and fiction : girls learning the art of survival

This chapter’s interest in fiction’s relationship to truth, lies, and secrecy is not so much a matter of how closely fiction resembles or mirrors the world (its mimetic quality), or what we can learn from fiction (its epistemological value). Rather, the concern is both literary and philosophical: a literary concern that takes into account how texts that thematise secrecy work to withhold and to disclose their secrets as part of the process of narrating and sequencing; and a philosophical concern that considers how survival is contingent on secrets and other forms of concealment such as lies, deception, and half-truths. The texts selected for examination are: Secrets (2002), Skim (2008), and Persepolis: The Story of a Childhood (2003). These texts draw attention to the ways in which the lies and secrets of the female protagonists are part of the intricate mechanism of survival, and demonstrate the ways in which fiction relies upon concealment and revelation as forms of truth-telling.

Are you telling the truth? Psychopathy assessment and impression management in a community sample

Objectives: Researchers have suggested that approximately 1% of individuals within the community have psychopathic tendencies (Neumann and Hare, 2008), although confirmatory evidence is scant. Design: The current study aimed to extend previous research beyond university student samples to explore the effect of impression management and self-deception on the identification of psychopathic traits. Methods: A non-incarcerated community sample comprising of 300 adults completed the Self-Reported Psychopathy scale – version 3 (SRP-III; Paulhus, Hemphill & Hare, in press) as well as the Paulhus Deception Scales (PDS; Paulhus, 1998). Results: Results indicated that at least 1% of the current community sample had clear psychopathic tendencies, and that such tendencies were found in younger males who mis-used alcohol. Conclusions: Importantly, individuals with psychopathic traits did not present with an inflated propensity to distort assessment responses, which provides support for future research endeavours that aim to conduct larger-scale psychopathy assessments within the community. This paper further outlines the study implications in regards to the practical assessment of psychopathy.

Who is more susceptible to phishing emails? : a Saudi Arabian study

Phishing emails cause enormous losses to both users and organisations. The goal of this study is to determine which individuals are more vulnerable to phishing emails. To gain this information an experiment has been developed which involves sending phishing email to users and collecting information about users. The detection deception model has been applied to identify users’ detection behaviour. We find that users who have less email experience and high levels of submissiveness have increased susceptibility. Among those, users who have high susceptibility levels and high openness and extraversion are more likely to carry on the harmful action embedded in phishing emails.

“Nobody’s holding a gun to your head…” examining current discourses surrounding victims of online fraud

The current discourse surrounding victims of online fraud is heavily premised on an individual notion of greed. The strength of this discourse permeates the thinking of those who have not experienced this type of crime, as well as victims themselves. The current discourse also manifests itself in theories of victim precipitation, which again assigns the locus of blame to individuals for their actions in an offence. While these typologies and categorisations of victims have been critiqued as “victim blaming” in other fields, this has not occurred with regard to online fraud victims, where victim focused ideas of responsibility for the offence continue to dominate. This paper illustrates the nature and extent of the greed discourse and argues that it forms part of a wider construction of online fraud that sees responsibility for victimisation lie with the victims themselves and their actions. It argues that the current discourse does not take into account the level of deception and the targeting of vulnerability that is employed by the offender in perpetrating this type of crime. It concludes by advocating the need to further examine and challenge this discourse, especially with regard to its potential impact for victim’s access to support services and the wider criminal justice system.

Secrets, Lies and Children's Fiction

Many children learn from a very young age about the importance of always telling the truth. They also learn that telling lies is necessary if they are to survive in a world that paradoxically values the truth but practises deception. Secrets, Lies and Children’s Fiction demonstrates how this paradox is played out in texts for children and young adults, how secrets and lies may be a necessary means for survival and adaptation, and how mendacity may have its virtues.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Show me the magic : the adventures of Don McAlpine

Synopsis Show Me The Magic takes us on an enthralling and joyful journey into the life and work of the legendary and world-renowned Australian cinematographer, Don McAlpine. A country kid from the small wheat-belt town of Quandialla in isolated south-western New South Wales, Australia, McAlpine was born in 1934 - the year before the first technicolour film was released. There wasn’t even a cinema in Quandialla. Don helped his mother support their family from the age of 14, when his father was stricken by tuberculosis. His part-time job at the Temora chemist as a darkroom photo developer struck a chord in young Don's soul. Soon, a school performance of The Mikado ignited in him the desire to entertain an audience. His fascination with the magical images emerging from his darkroom set him on the winding path that would eventually lead to the glittering lights of Hollywood, where, in 2009, he received the American Society of Cinematographers’ “International Cinematographer of the Year” Award in front of the foremost luminaries of the American film industry. That same year, Don shot his 50th film, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, a big-budget, effects-driven action movie directed by Oscar-winner Gavin Hood and starring Hugh Jackman. Show Me the Magic takes us on set and behind the scenes of that film. In 2011, Don posted another landmark: Mental, a low budget movie directed by PJ Hogan (Muriel’s Wedding, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Peter Pan). Mental was Don’s first digital film and his first Australian film in 25 years. As we travel with Don back into his past, and into the Australian outback landscape that he loves so much, we experience the extremes of movie making: embedded alongside him on the contrasting sets of Wolverine and Mental, we peel back the layers of what Don calls ‘the beautiful deception' of cinema to illuminate the world behind the screen. Joined by celebrated Australian directors Bruce Beresford and Gillian Armstrong, we explore the heritage of the remarkable Australian films that Don photographed, including the iconic Breaker Morant and My Brilliant Career. In Los Angeles, Don reconnects with Paul Mazursky who gave him his big break in Hollywood with Tempest and followed up with Down and Out in Beverly Hills. And two Australians of a later generation - Baz Luhrmann and Catherine Martin - take us behind the scenes on Don’s spectacular creative achievements – Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge! At once the story of a remarkable man and an exploration of filmmaking at the highest level, Show Me The Magic will engage and entrance anyone who has ever been touched by the magic of movies. - See more at: http://www.showmethemagic.com.au/film.htm#synopsis" This film is dedicated to the memory of South African film-maker Peter Henkel, 1924 - 1992.

Social engineering in social networking sites : phase-based and source-based models

Social networking sites (SNSs), with their large numbers of users and large information base, seem to be perfect breeding grounds for exploiting the vulnerabilities of people, the weakest link in security. Deceiving, persuading, or influencing people to provide information or to perform an action that will benefit the attacker is known as “social engineering.” While technology-based security has been addressed by research and may be well understood, social engineering is more challenging to understand and manage, especially in new environments such as SNSs, owing to some factors of SNSs that reduce the ability of users to detect the attack and increase the ability of attackers to launch it. This work will contribute to the knowledge of social engineering by presenting the first two conceptual models of social engineering attacks in SNSs. Phase-based and source-based models are presented, along with an intensive and comprehensive overview of different aspects of social engineering threats in SNSs.

Toward understanding social engineering

There is no doubt that social engineering plays a vital role in compromising most security defenses, and in attacks on people, organizations, companies, or even governments. It is the art of deceiving and tricking people to reveal critical information or to perform an action that benefits the attacker in some way. Fraudulent and deceptive people have been using social engineering traps and tactics using information technology such as e-mails, social networks, web sites, and applications to trick victims into obeying them, accepting threats, and falling victim to various crimes and attacks such as phishing, sexual abuse, financial abuse, identity theft, impersonation, physical crime, and many other forms of attack. Although organizations, researchers, practitioners, and lawyers recognize the severe risk of social engineering-based threats, there is a severe lack of understanding and controlling of such threats. One side of the problem is perhaps the unclear concept of social engineering as well as the complexity of understand human behaviors in behaving toward, approaching, accepting, and failing to recognize threats or the deception behind them. The aim of this paper is to explain the definition of social engineering based on the related theories of the many related disciplines such as psychology, sociology, information technology, marketing, and behaviourism. We hope, by this work, to help researchers, practitioners, lawyers, and other decision makers to get a fuller picture of social engineering and, therefore, to open new directions of collaboration toward detecting and controlling it.