984 resultados para Data linking
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Summary Biodiversity is usually studied through species or genetic diversities. To date, these two levels of diversity have remained the independent .fields of investigations of community ecologists and population geneticists. However, recent joint analyses of species and genetic diversities have suggested that common processes may underlie the two levels. Positive correlations between species diversity and genetic diversity may arise when the effects of drift and migration overwhelm selective effects. The first goal of this thesis was to make a joint investigation of the patterns of species and genetic diversity in a community of freshwater gastropods living in a floodplain habitat. The second goal was to determine, as far as possible, the relative influences of the processes underlying the patterns observed at each level. In chapter 2 we investigate the relative influences of different evolutionary forces in shaping the genetic structure of Radix balthica populations. Results revealed that the structure inferred using quantitative traits was lower or equal to the one inferred using neutral molecular markers. Consequently, the pattern of structure observed could be only due to random drift, possibly to uniform selection, but definitely not to selection for local optima. In chapter 3, we analyze the temporal variation of species and genetic diversities in five localities. An extended period of drought occurred at the end of the study period leading to decay of both species and genetic diversities. This parallel loss of diversity following a natural perturbation highlighted the role sometimes predominant of random drift over selection on patterns of biodiversity in a floodplain habitat. In chapter 4, we compare the spatial genetic structures of two sympatric species: Radix balthica and Planorbis carinatus. We found that R. balthica populations are weakly structured and have moderate to high values of gene diversity. In contrast, P. carinatus populations are highly structured and poorly diverse. Then we measured correlations between various indices of species and genetic diversity using genetic data .from the two species. We found only one significant correlation: between species richness and gene diversity of P. carinatus. This result highlights the .need to use genetic date from more than one species to infer correlations between species and genetic diversities. Overall, this thesis provided new insights into the common processes underlying patterns of species and genetic diversity. Résumé La biodiversité est généralement étudiée au niveau de la diversité génétique ou spécifique. Ces deux niveaux sont restés jusqu'à maintenant les domaines d'investigation séparés des généticiens des populations et des écologistes des communautés. Cependant, des analyses conjointes des diversités génétique et spécifique ont récemment suggéré que des processus similaires pouvaient influencer ces deux niveaux. Des corrélations positives entre les diversités génétique et spécifique pourraient être dues aux effets de migration et de dérive qui dominent les effets sélectifs. Le premier but de cette thèse était de faire une étude conjointe des diversités génétique et spécifique dans une communauté de gastéropodes d'eau douce. Le second objectif était de déterminer les influences relatives des différents processus liés à chaque niveau de diversité. Dans le chapitre 2 nous cherchons à déterminer quelles forces évolutives influencent la structure génétique de quatre populations de Radix balthica. La structure mesurée sur des traits quantitatifs s'est révélée être plus faible ou égale à celle mesurée avec des marqueurs moléculaires neutres. La structure observée pourrait ainsi être due uniquement à la dérive génétique, potentiellement à la sélection uniforme, mais en aucun cas à la sélection locale pour différents optima. Dans le chapitre 3 nous analysons la variation temporelle des diversités génétique et spécifique dans cinq localités. Une récente période de sécheresse a causé une diminution parallèle des deux niveaux de diversité. Cette perturbation à mis en évidence le rôle parfois prépondérant de la dérive par rapport à celui de la sélection dans le déterminisme de la biodiversité dans un écosytème alluvial. Dans le chapitre 4, nous comparons la structure génétique spatiale de deux espèces vivant en sympatrie : Radix balthica et Planorbis carinatus. Les populations de R. balthica sont peu structurées et présentent un niveau de diversité relativement élevé alors que celles de P. carinatus sont fortement structurées et peu diversifiées. Nous avons ensuite mesuré différentes corrélations entre les diversités génétique et spécifique, mais la seule relation significative a été trouvée entre la richesse spécifique et la diversité génétique de P. carinatus. Ainsi, cette thèse a permis de découvrir de nouveaux aspects des processus qui influencent en parallèle la diversité aux niveaux génétique et spécifique.
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La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.
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Plants have the ability to use the composition of incident light as a cue to adapt development and growth to their environment. Arabidopsis thaliana as well as many crops are best adapted to sunny habitats. When subjected to shade, these plants exhibit a variety of physiological responses collectively called shade avoidance syndrome (SAS). It includes increased growth of hypocotyl and petioles, decreased growth rate of cotyledons and reduced branching and crop yield. These responses are mainly mediated by phytochrome photoreceptors, which exist either in an active, far-red light (FR) absorbing or an inactive, red light (R) absorbing isoform. In direct sunlight, the R to FR light (R/FR) ratio is high and converts the phytochromes into their physiologically active state. The phytochromes interact with downstream transcription factors such as PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTOR (PIF), which are subsequently degraded. Light filtered through a canopy is strongly depleted in R, which result in a low R/FR ratio and renders the phytochromes inactive. Protein levels of downstream transcription factors are stabilized, which initiates the expression of shade-induced genes such as HFR1, PIL1 or ATHB-2. In my thesis, I investigated transcriptional responses mediated by the SAS in whole Arabidopsis seedlings. Using microarray and chromatin immunoprecipitation data, we identified genome-wide PIF4 and PIF5 dependent shade regulated gene as well as putative direct target genes of PIF5. This revealed evidence for a direct regulatory link between phytochrome signaling and the growth promoting phytohormone auxin (IAA) at the level of biosynthesis, transport and signaling. Subsequently, it was shown, that free-IAA levels are upregulated in response to shade. It is assumed that shade-induced auxin production takes predominantly place in cotyledons of seedlings. This implies, that IAA is subsequently transported basipetally to the hypocotyl and enhances elongation growth. The importance of auxin transport for growth responses has been established by chemical and genetic approaches. To gain a better understanding of spatio-temporal transcriptional regulation of shade-induce auxin, I generated in a second project, an organ specific high throughput data focusing on cotyledon and hypocotyl of young Arabidopsis seedlings. Interestingly, both organs show an opposite growth regulation by shade. I first investigated the spatio-transcriptional regulation of auxin re- sponsive gene, in order to determine how broad gene expression pattern can be explained by the hypothesized movement of auxin from cotyledons to hypocotyls in shade. The analysis suggests, that several genes are indeed regulated according to our prediction and others are regulated in a more complex manner. In addition, analysis of gene families of auxin biosynthetic and transport components, lead to the identification of essential family members for shade-induced growth re- sponses, which were subsequently experimentally confirmed. Finally, the analysis of expression pattern identified several candidate genes, which possibly explain aspects of the opposite growth response of the different organs.
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Two different levels of control for bone marrow hematopoiesis are believed to exist. On the one hand, normal blood cell distribution is believed to be maintained in healthy subjects by an "innate" hematopoietic activity, i.e., a basal intrinsic bone marrow activity. On the other hand, an "adaptive" hematopoietic state develops in response to stress-induced stimulation. This adaptive hematopoiesis targets specific lineage amplification depending on the nature of the stimuli. Unexpectedly, recent data have shown that what we call "normal hematopoiesis" is a stress-induced state maintained by activated bone marrow CD4+ T cells. This T cell population includes a large number of recently stimulated cells in normal mice whose priming requires the presence of the cognate antigens. In the absence of CD4+ T cells or their cognate antigens, hematopoiesis is maintained at low levels. In this review, we summarize current knowledge on T cell biology, which could explain how CD4+ T cells can help hematopoiesis, how they are primed in mice that were not intentionally immunized, and what maintains them activated in the bone marrow.
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The objective of this study was to increase understanding of the link between the identification of required HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy in a Finnish, global company employing over 8,000 people and about 100 HR professionals. This aim was approached by analyzing the data collected in focus group interviews using a grounded theory method and in parallel reviewing the literature of strategic human resource management, competence-based strategic management, strategy and foresight. The literature on competence management in different contexts dismisses in-depth discussions on the foresight process and individuals are often forgotten in strategic frameworks. However, corporate foresight helps in the detection of emerging opportunities for innovations and in the implementation of strategy. The empirical findings indicate a lack of strategic leadership and an alignment with HR and business. Accordingly, the most important HR competence areas identified were the need for increasing business understanding and enabling change. As a result, the study provided a holistic model for competence foresight, which introduces HR professionals as strategic change agents in the role of organizational futurists at the heart of the company: facilitating competence foresight and competence development on individual as well as organizational levels, resulting in an agile organization with increased business understanding, sensitive sensors and adaptive actions to enable change.
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This study investigates the mediating impact of psychological capital and follower-leader relational capital on the relationship between ethical leadership and in-role performance through the lenses of social exchange theory, social information processing theory, and psychological resources theory. Analysis of data collected from a sample of 171 employees and 24 supervisors from Pakistan reveals that ethical leadership has a positive effect on followers’ in-role job performance, yet this effect is fully explained through the role of psychological capital and partially through follower-leader relational capital. Significant implications of these findings for further research and practice are discussed.
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Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing one or more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way are correspondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter also known as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principal component analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) and multidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of these methods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linked through parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations and convex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual maps of data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary in small steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smooth change from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving a deeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods
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Abstract This seminar is a research discussion around a very interesting problem, which may be a good basis for a WAISfest theme. A little over a year ago Professor Alan Dix came to tell us of his plans for a magnificent adventure:to walk all of the way round Wales - 1000 miles 'Alan Walks Wales'. The walk was a personal journey, but also a technological and community one, exploring the needs of the walker and the people along the way. Whilst walking he recorded his thoughts in an audio diary, took lots of photos, wrote a blog and collected data from the tech instruments he was wearing. As a result Alan has extensive quantitative data (bio-sensing and location) and qualitative data (text, images and some audio). There are challenges in analysing individual kinds of data, including merging similar data streams, entity identification, time-series and textual data mining, dealing with provenance, ontologies for paths, and journeys. There are also challenges for author and third-party annotation, linking the data-sets and visualising the merged narrative or facets of it.
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Accompanying the call for increased evidence-based policy the developed world is implementing more longitudinal panel studies which periodically gather information about the same people over a number of years. Panel studies distinguish between transitory and persistent states (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and facilitate causal explanations of relationships between variables. However, they are complex and costly. A growing number of developing countries are now implementing or considering starting panel studies. The objectives of this paper are to identify challenges that arise in panel studies, and to give examples of how these have been addressed in resource-constrained environments. The main issues considered are: the development of a conceptual framework which links macro and micro contexts; sampling the cohort in a cost-effective way; tracking individuals; ethics and data management and analysis. Panel studies require long term funding, a stable institution and an acceptance that there will be limited value for money in terms of results from early stages, with greater benefits accumulating in the study's mature years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.
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We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KMGAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KMGAP is based on the PRA model framework (P¨oschl-Rudich- Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modeled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system and the computational constraints, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270K is close to unity (Winkler et al., 2006). Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for efficient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.
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The wood mouse is a common and abundant species in agricultural landscape and is a focal species in pesticide risk assessment. Empirical studies on the ecology of the wood mouse have provided sufficient information for the species to be modelled mechanistically. An individual-based model was constructed to explicitly represent the locations and movement patterns of individual mice. This together with the schedule of pesticide application allows prediction of the risk to the population from pesticide exposure. The model included life-history traits of wood mice as well as typical landscape dynamics in agricultural farmland in the UK. The model obtains a good fit to the available population data and is fit for risk assessment purposes. It can help identify spatio-temporal situations with the largest potential risk of exposure and enables extrapolation from individual-level endpoints to population-level effects. Largest risk of exposure to pesticides was found when good crop growth in the “sink” fields coincided with high “source” population densities in the hedgerows. Keywords: Population dynamics, Pesticides, Ecological risk assessment, Habitat choice, Agent-based model, NetLogo
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ISO19156 Observations and Measurements (O&M) provides a standardised framework for organising information about the collection of information about the environment. Here we describe the implementation of a specialisation of O&M for environmental data, the Metadata Objects for Linking Environmental Sciences (MOLES3). MOLES3 provides support for organising information about data, and for user navigation around data holdings. The implementation described here, “CEDA-MOLES”, also supports data management functions for the Centre for Environmental Data Archival, CEDA. The previous iteration of MOLES (MOLES2) saw active use over five years, being replaced by CEDA-MOLES in late 2014. During that period important lessons were learnt both about the information needed, as well as how to design and maintain the necessary information systems. In this paper we review the problems encountered in MOLES2; how and why CEDA-MOLES was developed and engineered; the migration of information holdings from MOLES2 to CEDA-MOLES; and, finally, provide an early assessment of MOLES3 (as implemented in CEDA-MOLES) and its limitations. Key drivers for the MOLES3 development included the necessity for improved data provenance, for further structured information to support ISO19115 discovery metadata export (for EU INSPIRE compliance), and to provide appropriate fixed landing pages for Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) in the presence of evolving datasets. Key lessons learned included the importance of minimising information structure in free text fields, and the necessity to support as much agility in the information infrastructure as possible without compromising on maintainability both by those using the systems internally and externally (e.g. citing in to the information infrastructure), and those responsible for the systems themselves. The migration itself needed to ensure continuity of service and traceability of archived assets.
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In the present work. the resonance Raman. UV-vis-NIR and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) data of nanorods (about similar to 300 rim in diameter) and nanofibers (about similar to 93 nm in diameter) of PANI are presented and compared. The PANI samples were synthesized in aqueous media with dodecybenzenesulfonic acid (DBSA) and beta-naphtalenesulfonic acid (beta-NSA) as dopants, respectively. The presence of hands at 578, 1400 and 1632cm(-1) in the Raman spectra of PANI-NSA and PANI-DBSA shows that the formation of cross-linking structures is a general feature of the PANI chains prepared in micellar media. It is proposed that these structures are responsible for the one-dimensional PANI morphology formation. In addition, the Raman band at 609cm(-1) of PANI fibers is correlated with the extended PANI chain coil formation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (labeled Yt and yt in this paper) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PV and PVM, respectively, hereafter) linking them. The work on cointegration has been so prevalent that it is often overlooked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. The basis of this result is the use of rational expectations in forecasting future values of variables in the PVM. If this condition fails, the present-value equation will not be valid, since it will contain an additional term capturing the (non-zero) conditional expected value of future error terms. Our article has a few novel contributions, but two stand out. First, in testing for PVMs, we advise to split the restrictions implied by PV relationships into orthogonality conditions (or reduced rank restrictions) before additional tests on the value of parameters. We show that PV relationships entail a weak-form common feature relationship as in Hecq, Palm, and Urbain (2006) and in Athanasopoulos, Guillén, Issler and Vahid (2011) and also a polynomial serial-correlation common feature relationship as in Cubadda and Hecq (2001), which represent restrictions on dynamic models which allow several tests for the existence of PV relationships to be used. Because these relationships occur mostly with nancial data, we propose tests based on generalized method of moment (GMM) estimates, where it is straightforward to propose robust tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity. We also propose a robust Wald test developed to investigate the presence of reduced rank models. Their performance is evaluated in a Monte-Carlo exercise. Second, in the context of asset pricing, we propose applying a permanent-transitory (PT) decomposition based on Beveridge and Nelson (1981), which focus on extracting the long-run component of asset prices, a key concept in modern nancial theory as discussed in Alvarez and Jermann (2005), Hansen and Scheinkman (2009), and Nieuwerburgh, Lustig, Verdelhan (2010). Here again we can exploit the results developed in the common cycle literature to easily extract permament and transitory components under both long and also short-run restrictions. The techniques discussed herein are applied to long span annual data on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. In both applications we do not reject the existence of a common cyclical feature vector linking these two series. Extracting the long-run component shows the usefulness of our approach and highlights the presence of asset-pricing bubbles.