974 resultados para Crop Forecasting System


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Using nine microsatellite loci, we investigated genetic structure and diversity in 83 Brazilian cassava accessions, including several landraces, in the Cerrado biome in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. All nine loci were polymorphic, averaging 6.00 alleles per locus. Treating each of seven municipalities as a cassava group or population, they averaged 3.5 alleles per locus, with 97% polymorphic loci, high values for observed heterozygosity (0.32) and gene diversity (0.56). Total genetic variability was high (0.668), and most of this genetic variability was concentrated within municipalities (0.577). Cluster and structure analyses divided accessions into two major clusters or populations (K = 2). Also, a significant genetic versus geographic correlation was found (r = 0.4567; P < 0.0260). Migratory routes in the Cerrado are considered main contributors to the region`s high cassava diversity and spatial genetic structure, amplifying interactions between traditional farmers and the evolutionary dynamics of this crop.

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Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

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There is a need for improved monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of participatory research with smallholder farmers, in particular to help differentiate between different types of farm household with different needs. This paper reports some of the results of a study to develop participatory M&E tools for the Forages for Smallholders Project in Southeast Asia, focusing on an upland commune in central Vietnam with a highly diverse crop-livestock system. Participatory rural appraisal techniques were used within a rural livelihoods framework to assess the differing livelihoods of poor, average, and better-off households. There were found to be marked differences between households, particularly in human resources, landholdings, and cattle numbers, affecting the livelihood strategies pursued. The improved understanding of livelihood strategies was gained in a cost-effective way and could be readily used by project participants to monitor the impacts of the introduced forages within the commune, enabling better focusing of the participatory research process on the needs and circumstances of poor farmers. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

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Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química.

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Pest Control is treated as a economic problem. The social and the private perspectives differ due to the consideration of the environmental and social impacts as well as technical aspects such as resistance, resurgence and secondary pests. A mathematical model is developed to determine and compare the social and the private optimum control strategies (which define the Economic Thereshold Levels) for the velvetbean caterpillar on soybeans in Brazil. The crop/pest system incorporates effects of predators and parasites, the soybean natural capacity to compensate for injury and the pesticide effects on both pests and its natural enemies; in the social case, the environmental and social impacts and the effects of pest resistance to the pesticide are incorporated. Consideration of density dependence, weather effects, randomnes of pest attack and risk aversion are discussed. The results can be compared with current control practices and IPM programme recomendations.

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O conhecimento dos oceanos é limitado pela disponibilidade de dados disponíveis. Este estudo mostra como modelos numéricos podem aumentar o conhecimento com pouca informação local, e de forma económica. Neste trabalho é efetuado a implementação do modelo numérico MOHID, bidimensional (2D) para simular a propagação da maré e tridimensional (3D) para estudar o escoamento baroclíncio no Arquipélago de Cabo Verde. O modelo 2D é baseado num modelo de escala regional com passo espacial de 6 km (nível 1), com dois modelos encaixados de passo espacial de 3 km (nível 2). Também foi utilizado para impor a maré (nível 0) no modelo 3D (nível 1, com passo de 6 km). O modelo tridimensional tem 50 camadas na vertical e fornece informação sobre a circulação geral. A fronteira lateral aberta foi forçada pelo modelo global de maré FES 2004 e pelos resultados do projecto MyOcean fornecendo condições de temperatura, salinidade e níveis médios diários para o modelo 3D. O forçamento meteorológico foi fornecido pelos resultados do modelo meteorológico GFS (Global Forecasting System). Os resultados dos modelos foram analisados com as informações conhecidas como as principais correntes da região, as imagens de satélite de temperatura da superfície do mar, perfis verticais obtidos pelas bóias argo e os resultados do projeto MyOcean. O modelo reproduz o padrão de circulação conhecido para a região e os resultados apresentam boa concordância com a informação disponível. O modelo mostra que o vento tem influência sobre o escoamento à superfície, mas tem pouca influência sobre os níveis.

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Crop species with the C4 photosynthetic pathway are more efficient in assimilating N than C3 plants, which results in different N amounts prone to be washed from its straw by rain water. Such differences may affect N recycling in agricultural systems where these species are grown as cover crops. In this experiment, phytomass production and N leaching from the straw of grasses with different photosynthetic pathways were studied in response to N application. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) and congo grass (Brachiaria ruziziensis) with the C4 photosynthetic pathway, and black oat (Avena Strigosa) and triticale (X Triticosecale), with the C3 photosynthetic pathway, were grown for 47 days. After determining dry matter yields and N and C contents, a 30 mm rainfall was simulated over 8 t ha-1 of dry matter of each plant residue and the leached amounts of ammonium and nitrate were determined. C4 grasses responded to higher fertilizer rates, whereas N contents in plant tissue were lower. The amount of N leached from C4 grass residues was lower, probably because the C/N ratio is higher and N is more tightly bound to organic compounds. When planning a crop rotation system it is important to take into account the difference in N release of different plant residues which may affect N nutrition of the subsequent crop.

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ABSTRACT Livestock urine and dung are important components of the N cycle in pastures, but little information on its effect on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is available. We conducted a short-term (39-day) trial to quantify the direct N2O-N emissions from sheep excreta on an experimental area of ryegrass pasture growing on a Typic Paleudult in southern Brazil. Four rates of urine-N (161, 242, 323, and 403 kg ha-1 N) and one of dung-N (13 kg ha-1 N) were applied, as well as a control plot receiving no excreta. The N2O-N emission factor (EF = % of added N released as N2O-N) for urine and dung was calculated, taking into account the N2O fluxes in the field, over a period of 39 days. The EF value of the urine and dung was used to estimate the emissions of N2O-N over a 90-day period of pasture in the winter under two grazing intensities (2.5 or 5.0 times the herbage intake potential of grazing lambs). The soil N2O-N fluxes ranged from 4 to 353 µg m-2h-1. The highest N2O-N fluxes occurred 16 days after application of urine and dung, when the highest soil nitrate content was also recorded and the water-filled pore space exceeded 60 %. The mean EF for urine was 0.25 % of applied N, much higher than that for dung (0.06 %). We found that N2O-N emissions for the 90-day winter pasture period were 0.54 kg ha-1 for low grazing intensity and 0.62 kg ha-1 for moderate grazing intensity. Comparison of the two forms of excreta show that urine was the main contributor to N2O-N emissions (mean of 36 %), whereas dung was responsible for less than 0.1 % of total soil N2O-N emissions.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect on forage yield of sowing winter forage species before and after soybean harvest, at different nitrogen application levels. The experiment was set out in a randomized block design with a strip-split plot arrangement, and three replicates. Sowing methods (18 days before soybean harvest and six days after soybean harvest) were allocated in the main plots, and the combination among forage species (Avena strigosa cv. IAPAR 61 + Lolium multiflorum; A. strigosa cv. Comum + L. multiflorum; A. strigosa cv. Comum + L. multiflorum + Vicia villosa; A. strigosa cv. Comum + L. multiflorum + Raphanus sativus; and L. multiflorum) and nitrogen levels (0, 140, 280 and 420 kg ha-1) in the plots and subplots, respectively. Forage sowing before the soybean harvest made it possible to anticipate first grazing by 14 days, with satisfactory establishment of forage species without affecting forage production. This method permitted a longer grazing period, preventing the need for soil disking, besides allowing the use of no-tillage system. The mixture of forage species enables higher forage yield for pasture in relation to single species pastures, with response to nitrogen fertilization up to 360 kg ha-1.

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Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n keskusvalvomossa tapahtuvaa vesivoiman ajosuunnittelua. Pääkohdat tarkastelussa olivat vesistöjen säännöstely, erilaiset vesivuodet ja sähkömarkkinatilanteet. Vesivoiman ajosuunnittelua tarkasteltiin pääasiassa erilaisten vesivuosien ja sähkömarkkinatilanteiden näkökulmasta. Lähtötietoina käytettiin Suomen ympäristökeskuksen vesistömallijärjestelmän ja UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n energianhallintajärjestelmän numeerisia historia-arvoja. Työssäselvitettiin UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n vesivarannoista hyödynnettävissä olevat energiamäärät. Energiamäärien avulla määritettiin skenaario UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n vesivoimantuotannon vaihtelusta. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin vesivoimaa sähkötaseen säätövoimana. Teoreettisessa osassa perehdyttiin Suomen sähköntuotantorakenteeseen, vesivoiman asemaan sähköntuotannossa ja vesivoiman ohjausmekanismeihin. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n sähkön käyttöä ja vesivarantoja. Soveltavassa osassa tarkasteltiin, miten vesivoiman ohjausmekanismit toimivat käytännössä. Lisäksi analysoitiin sähkömarkkinatilanteiden vaikutuksia ja vesivoimalaitosten ajon tehostamismahdollisuuksia. Työn tuloksena laadittiin ennuste-simulaattori, jolla voidaan optimoida vesivoimanja lauhdevoiman ajoa. Tulevaisuudessa simulaattorin avulla voidaan ennustaa poikkeuksellisia sähkömarkkinatilanteita.

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Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

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Diplomityössä tutkitaan heikkojen signaalien hyödyntämistä pienissä ja keskisuurissa yrityksissä (pk-yritykset). Tutkimuksen pääkysymys on, miten pk-yritykset voivat hyödyntää kansallisten toimijoiden, kuten FinNode Venäjän ja Finpron, tuottamia heikkoja signaaleita päätöksenteossaan. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään heikkoja signaaleja ja ulkoista liiketoimintatietoa. Käsittely pohjautuu kirjallisuudessa esitettyihin keinoihin ja menetelmiin, jotka liittyvät heikkojen signaalien havainnointiin, lähteisiin, keräämiseen ja hyödyntämiseen. Ulkoisen liiketoimintatiedon perustana on informaatioketju ja uuden tiedon luomisen yhteys ulkoisen liiketoimintatiedon hyödyntämiseen. Kirjallisuusmallien avulla on käsitelty myös haasteita, jotka ilmenevät heikkojen signaalien hyödyntämisessä, ja miten ulkoisen liiketoimintatiedon hankinnassa käytettävää prosessia pystytään hyödyntämään osana heikkojen signaalien seulontaa ja analysointia. Diplomityön tutkimusosassa kerättiin teemahaastatteluilla pk-yrityksiltä ja kansallisilta innovaatiojärjestelmän toimijoilta tietoa. Yrityksiltä saatiin tietoa ulkoisen liiketoimintatiedon ja heikkojen signaalien keräämisestä ja hyödyntämisestä. Kansallisilta innovaatiojärjestelmän toimijoilta kerättiin tietoa rakennetusta ennakointijärjestelmästä ja sen hyödynnettävyydestä pk-yrityksissä sekä osaamiskeskusohjelman roolista tiedon välittäjänä. Kirjallisuus ja haastattelut yhdistämällä tutkimuksessa syntyi toimintamalli Kaakkois-Suomen osaamiskeskukselle. Toimintamallin avulla pk-yritykset voivat hyödyntää kansallisen innovaatiojärjestelmän toimijoiden keräämää, liiketoiminnalleen tärkeää signaalitietoa strategiaprosessissaan. Suomen innovaatiojärjestelmä on toimiva ennakoinnin osalta, kun taas pk-yrityksissä ei useinkaan suunnata resursseja ennakointiin ja heikkojen signaalien keräämiseen. Ajankohta toimintamallin käyttöönotolle vaikuttaa tutkimuksen pohjalta sopivalta, sillä järjestelmää on rakennettu ja testattu jo muutamien vuosien ajan.

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The study evaluated the energy performance of pig farming integrated with maize production in mechanized no-tillage system. In this proposed conception of integration, the swine excrement is used as fertilizers in the maize crop. The system was designed involving the activities associated to the pig management and maize production (soil management, cultivation and harvest). A one-year period of analysis was considered, enabling the production of three batches of pigs and two crops of maize. To evaluate the energy performance, three indicators were created: energy efficiency, use of non-renewable resources efficiency and cost of non-renewable energy to produce protein. The energy inputs are composed by the inputs and infrastructure used by the breeding of pigs and maize production, as well as the solar energy incident on the agroecosystem. The energy outputs are represented by the products (finished pigs and maize). The results obtained in the simulation indicates that the integration improves the energy performance of pig farms, with an increase in the energy efficiency (186%) as well as in the use of the non-renewable energy resources efficiency (352%), while reducing the cost of non-renewable energy to produce protein (‑58%).

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This study aimed to evaluate the level of infestation by weed species in a consolidated Jatropha plantation, as a function of the plant species grown in interrows. The experiment was installed in 2006 at the district of Itahum, city of Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, made possible through a partnership between Embrapa Western Agriculture and Paraiso Farm. Treatments consisted of (1) Jatropha in monocrop, with no plant at the interrrows; or the following plants cultivaded at the interrows of Jatropha: (2) Stylosanthes spp.; (3) Brachiaria ruziziensis; (4) Brachiaria ruziziensis + Stylosanthess pp.; (5) Brachiaria humidicola; (6) Panicum maximum cv. massai; (7) Cajanus cajan cv. anão; (8) Crotalaria spectabilis; (9) Crop rotation system 1 - (maize second crop -Crambe abyssinica - soybean - peanut); and (10) Crop rotation system 2 - (cowpea - radish - maize - cowpea) conducted for two years. Phytosociological characterization of weed species was accomplished in 2011 based on the Ecological Approach. Estimations of relative abundance, frequency, dominance and Importance Value Index were obtained. Areas were also characterized by the diversity coefficients of Simpson and modified Shannon-Weiner, and then grouped by cluster analysis. Areas with low soil coverage resulted in higher infestation levels; crop rotation in the interrows of Jatropha produced a significant reduction in weed infestation, but the lowest infestation levels were observed when grasses were grown intercropped with Jatropha. Lower diversity coefficients were associated with occurrence of the most troublesome weed species. In the first years after planting Jatropha, species of Brachiaria or a crop rotation involving species with high mulching ability and whose biomass exhibit a high C:N ratio, should be established in the interrows to avoid problems with weeds infestation.