Liquidity, moral hazard and bank crises

Bank crises, by interrupting liquidity provision, have been viewed as resulting in welfare losses. In a model of banking with moral hazard, we show that second best bank contracts that improve on autarky ex ante require costly crises to occur with positive probability at the interim stage. When bank payoffs are partially appropriable, either directly via imposition of fines or indirectly by the use of bank equity as a collateral, we argue that an appropriately designed ex-ante regime of policy intervention involving conditional monitoring can prevent bank crises.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

Paper money and national distress: William Huskisson and the early theories of credit, speculation and crises

This paper examines the explanation of commercial crises offered by William Huskisson in 1810 in the wake of the debate on the Bullion Report. Huskisson argued that the suspension of convertibility made it possible to extend issues of paper currency beyond its proper limits. Such an expansion, being in the interest of all parties concerned, would actually take place and stimulate excessive speculations, which would eventually prove unsustainable and bring generalized ruin and distress. Although some elements of this explanations were not new (having been anticipated by writers sucha as James Currie in 1793, William Roscoe in 1793, William Anderson in 1797 and an anonymous in 1796), Huskisson's explanation is more systematic and better organized, and his emphasis on the endogenous character of the crisis and on the instability of the dynamics of trade and credit makes it an interesting foreshadower of the theories of crises that were advanced half a century later.

Proteinuria de rango nefrótico y nefroangiosclerosis. Características clínicas y evolutivas diferenciales.

La proteïnúria de rang nefròtic (&3g/24h) sol considerar-se secundària a una malaltia glomerular. Coincidint amb altres autors hem observat que alguns pacients amb biòpsies renals indicades per proteïnúria de rang nefròtic han estat diagnosticats de nefroangiosclerosi hipertensiva (NAS-HTA). Presentem un estudi retrospectiu en el qual descrivim les característiques clíniques i evolutives d’aquests pacients en comparació amb pacients amb proteïnúria de rang nefròtic d’altres etiologies. Concluïm que s’hauria d’incloure la NAS-HTA en el diagnòstic diferencial de la proteïnúria de rang nefròtic. L’absència d’edemes i una albúmina normal serien un indicador clínic diferenciador amb altres patologies que cursen amb proteïnuria de rang nefròtic i podrien servir d’ajuda en la presa de decisions quan la realització d’una biòpsia renal és controvertida.

Situações vivenciadas pelos alunos de enfermagem, durante o curso, no contexto universitário, apontadas como norteadoras de crises

O estudo aborda as situações vivenciadas pelos alunos dos vários semestres de Enfermagem no contexto universitário que, muitas vezes, podem propiciar sentimentos negativos nos alunos, as quais são apontadas como crises, bem como as ações desenvolvidas no enfrentamento das dificuldades. O método de coleta baseou-se em questões abertas para que os mesmos respondessem livremente. A análise dos depoimentos foi realizada categorizando-os em forma de temáticas. O estudo mostrou as dificuldades dos alunos relacionadas consigo próprio, com os colegas, de ordem estrutural e financeira, entre outras.

Crises as a disease of the body politick: a metaphor in the history of nineteenth century economics

This paper examines the use of the medical metaphor in the early theories of crises. It first considers the borrowing of medical terminology and generic references to disease which, notwithstanding their relatively trivial character, illustrate how crises were originally conceived as disturbances (often of a political nature) to a naturally healthy system. Then it shows how a more specific metaphor, the fever of speculation, shifted the emphasis by treating prosperity as the diseased phase, to which crises are a remedy. The metaphor of the epidemic spreading of the disease introduced the theme of the cumulative character of both upswing and downswing, while the similitude with intermittent fevers accounted for the recurring nature of crises. Finally, the paper examines how the medical reflections on the causality of diseases contributed to the epistemology of crises theory, and reflects on the metaphisical shift accompanying the transition from the theories of crises to the theories of cycles.

Crises hipertensivas em portadores de hipertensão arterial em tratamento ambulatorial

O presente estudo avaliou as características sociodemográficas e de adesão terapêutica de 27 portadores de hipertensão arterial em tratamento ambulatorial que apresentaram crises de urgências ou emergências hipertensivas e haviam sido atendidos em uma unidade de leito-dia e em uma unidade de emergência da cidade de Fortaleza-Ceará, no período de outubro de 2002 a maio de 2003. A maioria era mulher, com idade de 50 a 60 anos, pouca escolaridade, tempo de tratamento inferior a cinco anos e tempo de diagnóstico entre cinco e dez anos. O uso dos remédios foi o tratamento mais referido, seguido pela redução do consumo de sal e comparecimento às consultas. No entanto, o fato de comparecerem às consultas e receberem orientação parece não modificar o comportamento, uma vez que a maioria dos entrevistados não praticava exercícios físicos e demonstrava deficiência no conhecimento sobre a doença, atribuindo a elevação da pressão arterial a fatores emocionais.

The periodicity of crises: a survey of the literature

This paper examines the literature on the periodical recurrence of economic crises up to the 1840s, illustrating how the awareness of this phenomenon was far more widespread than the few existing histories of business cycle theories indicate, and also that early writers were more interested in emphasizing the intermittent return of crises rather than their precise timing

Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.