Constraint reasoning with local search for continuous optimization

Optimization is a very important field for getting the best possible value for the optimization function. Continuous optimization is optimization over real intervals. There are many global and local search techniques. Global search techniques try to get the global optima of the optimization problem. However, local search techniques are used more since they try to find a local minimal solution within an area of the search space. In Continuous Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CCSP)s, constraints are viewed as relations between variables, and the computations are supported by interval analysis. The continuous constraint programming framework provides branch-and-prune algorithms for covering sets of solutions for the constraints with sets of interval boxes which are the Cartesian product of intervals. These algorithms begin with an initial crude cover of the feasible space (the Cartesian product of the initial variable domains) which is recursively refined by interleaving pruning and branching steps until a stopping criterion is satisfied. In this work, we try to find a convenient way to use the advantages in CCSP branchand- prune with local search of global optimization applied locally over each pruned branch of the CCSP. We apply local search techniques of continuous optimization over the pruned boxes outputted by the CCSP techniques. We mainly use steepest descent technique with different characteristics such as penalty calculation and step length. We implement two main different local search algorithms. We use “Procure”, which is a constraint reasoning and global optimization framework, to implement our techniques, then we produce and introduce our results over a set of benchmarks.

Probabilistic constraint reasoning with Monte Carlo integration to robot localization

This work studies the combination of safe and probabilistic reasoning through the hybridization of Monte Carlo integration techniques with continuous constraint programming. In continuous constraint programming there are variables ranging over continuous domains (represented as intervals) together with constraints over them (relations between variables) and the goal is to find values for those variables that satisfy all the constraints (consistent scenarios). Constraint programming “branch-and-prune” algorithms produce safe enclosures of all consistent scenarios. Special proposed algorithms for probabilistic constraint reasoning compute the probability of sets of consistent scenarios which imply the calculation of an integral over these sets (quadrature). In this work we propose to extend the “branch-and-prune” algorithms with Monte Carlo integration techniques to compute such probabilities. This approach can be useful in robotics for localization problems. Traditional approaches are based on probabilistic techniques that search the most likely scenario, which may not satisfy the model constraints. We show how to apply our approach in order to cope with this problem and provide functionality in real time.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Millennium BCP- The almond hill credit extension proposal

This Work Project is a case study on the credit lending process and loan pricing policy of Millennium bcp, one of the main Portuguese banks. The goal of the case study is to provide an opportunity to understand the above mentioned process and policy in a major bank and to explore the issues and interests at play when a relevant credit decision must be taken. I would like to thank Dr. José Miguel Pessanha without whom this project would not have been possible.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

In silico constraint-based strain optimization methods: the quest for optimal cell factories

Shifting from chemical to biotechnological processes is one of the cornerstones of 21st century industry. The production of a great range of chemicals via biotechnological means is a key challenge on the way toward a bio-based economy. However, this shift is occurring at a pace slower than initially expected. The development of efficient cell factories that allow for competitive production yields is of paramount importance for this leap to happen. Constraint-based models of metabolism, together with in silico strain design algorithms, promise to reveal insights into the best genetic design strategies, a step further toward achieving that goal. In this work, a thorough analysis of the main in silico constraint-based strain design strategies and algorithms is presented, their application in real-world case studies is analyzed, and a path for the future is discussed.

Kinematic constraint equations

This chapter presents a general methodology for the formulation of the kinematic constraint equations at position, velocity and acceleration levels. Also a brief characterization of the different type of constraints is offered, namely the holonomic and nonholonomic constraints. The kinematic constraints described here are formulated using generalized coordinates. The chapter ends with a general approach to deal with the kinematic analysis of multibody systems.

Origen y evolución del magma granítico en el Batolito de Achala: Fundamentos petrológicos, geoquímicos y estructurales para la preconcentración uranífera en el área de Cañada del Puerto. Origin and evolution of the granitic magma in the Achala Batholith: petrological, geochemical and structural constraint for the uranium preconcentration in the Cañada del Puerto area.

El batolito de Achala es uno de los macizos graníticos más grandes de las Sierras Pampeanas, el cual se localiza en las Sierras Grandes de Córdoba. Si bien el batolito de Achala ha sido objeto de diversos estudios geológicos, principalmente debido a sus yacimientos de uranio, el mismo todavía no posee un inequívoco modelo petrogéntico. Tampoco existe, en la actualidad, un inequívoco modelo que explique la preconcentración de uranio en las rocas graníticas portadores de este elemento. Este Proyecto tiene como objetivo general realizar estudios petrológicos y geoquímicos en la región conocida como CAÑADA del PUERTO, un lugar estratégicamente definido debido a la abundancia de granitos equigranulares de grano fino y/o grano medio biotíticos, emplazados durante el desarrollo de cizallas magmáticas tardías, y que constituirían las rocas fuentes de uranio. El objetivo específico requiere estudios detallados de las diferentes facies del batolito de Achala en el área seleccionada, incluyendo investigaciones petrológicas, geoquímicas de roca total, geoquímica de isótopos radiactivos y química mineral, con el fin de definir un MODELO PETROGENÉTICO que permita explicar: (a) el origen del magma padre y el subsiguiente proceso de cristalización de las diferentes facies graníticas aflorantes en el área de estudio, (b) identificar el proceso principal que condujo a la PRECONCENTRACIÓN uranífera de los magmas graníticos canalizados en las cizallas magmáticas tardías. Ambos objetivos se complementan y no son compartimentos estancos, ya que el logro combinado de estos objetivos permitirá comprender de mejor manera el proceso geoquímico que gobernó la distribución y concentración del U. De esta manera, se intentará definir un MODELO de PRECONCENTRACIÓN URANÍFERA EXTRAPOLABLE a otras áreas graníticas enriquecidas en uranio, constituyendo una poderosa herramienta de investigación aplicada a la exploración uranífera. En particular, el conocimiento de los recursos uraníferos es parte de una estrategia nacional con vistas a triplicar antes del 2025 la disponibilidad energética actual, en cuyo caso, el uranio constituye la materia prima de las centrales nucleares que se están planificando y en construcción. Por otro lado, la Argentina adhirió al Protocolo de Kioto y, junto a los países adherentes, deben disminuir de manera progresiva el uso de combustibles fósiles (que producen gases de efecto invernadero), reemplazándola por otras fuentes de energía, entre ellas, la ENERGÍA NUCLEAR. Este Proyecto, si bien NO es un Proyecto de exploración y/o prospección minera, es totalmente consistente con la política energética nacional promocionada desde el Ministerio de Planificación Federal, Inversión Pública y Servicios (v. sitio WEB CNEA), que ha invertido, desde 2006, importantes sumas de dinero, en el marco del Programa de Reactivación de la Actividad Nuclear.Los estudios referidos serán conducidos por los Drs. Dahlquist (CONICET-UNC) y Zarco (CNEA) quienes integrarán sus experiencias desarrolladas en el campo de las Ciencias Básicas con aquel logrado en el campo de las Ciencias Aplicadas, respectivamente. Se pretende, por tanto, aplicar conocimientos académicos-científicos a un problema de geología con potencial significado económico-energético, vinculando las instituciones referidas, esto es, CONICET-UNC y CNEA, con el fin de contribuir a la actividad socioeconómica de la provincia de Córdoba en particular y de Argentina en general.Finalmente, convencidos de que el progreso de la Ciencia y el Desarrollo Tecnológico está íntimamente vinculada con la sólida Formación de Recursos Humanos se pretende que este Proyecto contribuya SIGNIFICATIVAMENTE a las investigaciones de Doctorado que iniciará la Geóloga Carina Bello, actual Becaria de la CNEA.

Convergence and morphological constraint in frogs : variation in postcranial morphology ; a contribution in celebration of the distinguished scholarship of Robert F. Inger on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday / Sharon B. Emerson.

n.s. no.43(1988)

Double implementation in a market for indivisible goods with a price constraint

I consider the problem of assigning agents to objects where each agent must pay the price of the object he gets and prices must sum to a given number. The objective is to select an assignment-price pair that is envy-free with respect to the true preferences. I prove that the proposed mechanism will implement both in Nash and strong Nash the set of envy-free allocations. The distinguishing feature of the mechanism is that it treats the announced preferences as the true ones and selects an envy-free allocation with respect to the announced preferences.

Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies

This paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies. By assuming that firms face credit constraints, our model displays a complex dynamic behavior for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy. The basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies. Our instability concept means that small shocks have a persistent effect on the long run behavior of the model and also that economies can exhibit cycles with a very high period or even chaotic dynamic patterns.

Credit markets and the propagation of monetary policy shocks

This paper analyzes the propagation of monetary policy shocks through the creation of credit in an economy. Models of the monetary transmission mechanism typically feature responses which last for a few quarters contrary to what the empirical evidence suggests. To propagate the impact of monetary shocks over time, these models introduce adjustment costs by which agents find it optimal to change their decisions slowly. This paper presents another explanation that does not rely on any sort of adjustment costs or stickiness. In our economy, agents own assets and make occupational choices. Banks intermediate between agents demanding and supplying assets. Our interpretation is based on the way banks create credit and how the monetary authority affects the process of financial intermediation through its monetary policy. As the central bank lowers the interest rate by buying government bonds in exchange for reserves, high productive entrepreneurs are able to borrow more resources from low productivity agents. We show that this movement of capital among agents sets in motion a response of the economy that resembles an expansionary phase of the cycle.