Adaptive modelling, estimation and fusion from data: a neurofuzzy approach

In a world of almost permanent and rapidly increasing electronic data availability, techniques of filtering, compressing, and interpreting this data to transform it into valuable and easily comprehensible information is of utmost importance. One key topic in this area is the capability to deduce future system behavior from a given data input. This book brings together for the first time the complete theory of data-based neurofuzzy modelling and the linguistic attributes of fuzzy logic in a single cohesive mathematical framework. After introducing the basic theory of data-based modelling, new concepts including extended additive and multiplicative submodels are developed and their extensions to state estimation and data fusion are derived. All these algorithms are illustrated with benchmark and real-life examples to demonstrate their efficiency. Chris Harris and his group have carried out pioneering work which has tied together the fields of neural networks and linguistic rule-based algortihms. This book is aimed at researchers and scientists in time series modeling, empirical data modeling, knowledge discovery, data mining, and data fusion.

Using modelling tools to optimise the calculation and subsequent reduction of cable distortion parameters with application to oil well logging systems

This paper discusses how the use of computer-based modelling tools has aided the design of a telemetry unit for use with oil well logging. With the aid of modern computer-based simulation techniques, the new design is capable of operating at data rates of 2.5 times faster than previous designs.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Earthworm distribution and abundance predicted by a process-based model

Earthworms are significant ecosystem engineers and are an important component of the diet of many vertebrates and invertebrates, so the ability to predict their distribution and abundance would have wide application in ecology, conservation and land management. Earthworm viability is known to be affected by the availability and quality of food resources, soil water conditions and temperature, but has not yet been modelled mechanistically to link effects on individuals to field population responses. Here we present a novel model capable of predicting the effects of land management and environmental conditions on the distribution and abundance of Aporrectodea caliginosa, the dominant earthworm species in agroecosystems. Our process-based approach uses individual based modelling (IBM), in which each individual has its own energy budget. Individual earthworm energy budgets follow established principles of physiological ecology and are parameterised for A. caliginosa from experimental measurements under optimal conditions. Under suboptimal conditions (e.g. food limitation, low soil temperatures and water contents) reproduction is prioritised over growth. Good model agreement to independent laboratory data on individual cocoon production and growth of body mass, under variable feeding and temperature conditions support our representation of A. caliginosa physiology through energy budgets. Our mechanistic model is able to accurately predict A. caliginosa distribution and abundance in spatially heterogeneous soil profiles representative of field study conditions. Essential here is the explicit modelling of earthworm behaviour in the soil profile. Local earthworm movement responds to a trade-off between food availability and soil water conditions, and this determines the spatiotemporal distribution of the population in the soil profile. Importantly, multiple environmental variables can be manipulated simultaneously in the model to explore earthworm population exposure and effects to combinations of stressors. Potential applications include prediction of the population-level effects of pesticides and changes in soil management e.g. conservation tillage and climate change.

Towards an intelligent graphical interface for linear programming modelling

The increase of computing power of the microcomputers has stimulated the building of direct manipulation interfaces that allow graphical representation of Linear Programming (LP) models. This work discusses the components of such a graphical interface as the basis for a system to assist users in the process of formulating LP problems. In essence, this work proposes a methodology which considers the modelling task as divided into three stages which are specification of the Data Model, the Conceptual Model and the LP Model. The necessity for using Artificial Intelligence techniques in the problem conceptualisation and to help the model formulation task is illustrated.

A new 3D modelling paradigm for discrete model

Until few years ago, 3D modelling was a topic confined into a professional environment. Nowadays technological innovations, the 3D printer among all, have attracted novice users to this application field. This sudden breakthrough was not supported by adequate software solutions. The 3D editing tools currently available do not assist the non-expert user during the various stages of generation, interaction and manipulation of 3D virtual models. This is mainly due to the current paradigm that is largely supported by two-dimensional input/output devices and strongly affected by obvious geometrical constraints. We have identified three main phases that characterize the creation and management of 3D virtual models. We investigated these directions evaluating and simplifying the classic editing techniques in order to propose more natural and intuitive tools in a pure 3D modelling environment. In particular, we focused on freehand sketch-based modelling to create 3D virtual models, interaction and navigation in a 3D modelling environment and advanced editing tools for free-form deformation and objects composition. To pursuing these goals we wondered how new gesture-based interaction technologies can be successfully employed in a 3D modelling environments, how we could improve the depth perception and the interaction in 3D environments and which operations could be developed to simplify the classical virtual models editing paradigm. Our main aims were to propose a set of solutions with which a common user can realize an idea in a 3D virtual model, drawing in the air just as he would on paper. Moreover, we tried to use gestures and mid-air movements to explore and interact in 3D virtual environment, and we studied simple and effective 3D form transformations. The work was carried out adopting the discrete representation of the models, thanks to its intuitiveness, but especially because it is full of open challenges.

Novel Negotiation protocol to support CDM process in a layered ATM System

In the SESAR Step 2 concept of operations a RBT is available and seen by all making it possible to conceive a different operating method than the current ATM system based on Collaborative Decisions Making processes. Currently there is a need to describe in more detail the mechanisms by which actors (ATC, Network Management, Flight Crew, airports and Airline Operation Centre) will negotiate revisions to the RBT. This paper introduces a negotiation model, which uses constraint based programing applied to a mediator to facilitate negotiation process in a SWIM enabled environment. Three processes for modelling the negotiation process are explained as well a preliminary reasoning agent algorithm modelled with constraint satisfaction problem is presented. Computational capability of the model is evaluated in the conclusion.

Global research alliance modelling platform (GRAMP): an open web platform for modelling greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) process-based models are important tools for estimating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and changes in soil C stocks. There is a need for continuous evaluation, development and adaptation of these models to improve scientific understanding, national inventories and assessment of mitigation options across the world. To date, much of the information needed to describe different processes like transpiration, photosynthesis, plant growth and maintenance, above and below ground carbon dynamics, decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. In ecosystem models remains inaccessible to the wider community, being stored within model computer source code, or held internally by modelling teams. Here we describe the Global Research Alliance Modelling Platform (GRAMP), a web-based modelling platform to link researchers with appropriate datasets, models and training material. It will provide access to model source code and an interactive platform for researchers to form a consensus on existing methods, and to synthesize new ideas, which will help to advance progress in this area. The platform will eventually support a variety of models, but to trial the platform and test the architecture and functionality, it was piloted with variants of the DNDC model. The intention is to form a worldwide collaborative network (a virtual laboratory) via an interactive website with access to models and best practice guidelines; appropriate datasets for testing, calibrating and evaluating models; on-line tutorials and links to modelling and data provider research groups, and their associated publications. A graphical user interface has been designed to view the model development tree and access all of the above functions.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

A manufacturing systems modelling using system dynamics:forming a dedicated modelling tool

Discrete event simulation is a popular aid for manufacturing system design; however in application this technique can sometimes be unnecessarily complex. This paper is concerned with applying an alternative technique to manufacturing system design which may well provide an efficient form of rough-cut analysis. This technique is System Dynamics, and the work described in this paper has set about incorporating the principles of this technique into a computer based modelling tool that is tailored to manufacturing system design. This paper is structured to first explore the principles of System Dynamics and how they differ from Discrete Event Simulation. The opportunity for System Dynamics is then explored, and this leads to defining the capabilities that a suitable tool would need. This specification is then transformed into a computer modelling tool, which is then assessed by applying this tool to model an engine production facility. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219686703000228

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

An Agent-based Classification Model

The major function of this model is to access the UCI Wisconsin Breast Cancer data-set[1] and classify the data items into two categories, which are normal and anomalous. This kind of classification can be referred as anomaly detection, which discriminates anomalous behaviour from normal behaviour in computer systems. One popular solution for anomaly detection is Artificial Immune Systems (AIS). AIS are adaptive systems inspired by theoretical immunology and observed immune functions, principles and models which are applied to problem solving. The Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA)[2] is an AIS algorithm that is developed specifically for anomaly detection. It has been successfully applied to intrusion detection in computer security. It is believed that agent-based modelling is an ideal approach for implementing AIS, as intelligent agents could be the perfect representations of immune entities in AIS. This model evaluates the feasibility of re-implementing the DCA in an agent-based simulation environment called AnyLogic, where the immune entities in the DCA are represented by intelligent agents. If this model can be successfully implemented, it makes it possible to implement more complicated and adaptive AIS models in the agent-based simulation environment.