Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Una taxonomía de la primera persona del plural

En este artículo se busca elaborar filosóficamente el concepto nosotros. Metodológicamente, se utiliza al constructivismo filosófico de Deleuze y Guattari. Se parte de una taxonomía comprensiva de la pragmática del pronombre de primera persona plural ‘nosotros’, y luego señalando juegos de oposiciones que brindan consistencia interna y externa al concepto. Se muestra que el pronombre implica múltiples usos que permiten tratarlo como una herramienta discursiva que afecta el campo de lo social.

Jogos cooperativos em Educação Física: um estudo de caso

Este estudo, de natureza qualitativa, tem como objectivo reflectir sobre o papel das actividades lúdicas cooperativas no processo de aperfeiçoamento do relacionamento interpessoal no contexto escolar, na visão dos alunos e professores, tendo em conta aspectos como o facto da inserção do jogo cooperativo no contexto escolar ser ainda bastante menosprezada. No entanto, Kishimoto (1993) evidencia-lhe duas importantes funções quando utilizado como elemento pedagógico, sendo uma a dimensão lúdica, ligada à diversão e ao prazer, e a outra, como complemento do conhecimento oferecido ao indivíduo. Esta fundamentação é também partilhada por Soler (2006) que defende que as práticas que apontem para os valores humanos relevantes e coerentes a serem desenvolvidos nas aulas de Educação Física devem partir do envolvimento do grupo em práticas cooperativas. O autor defende também que na aprendizagem cooperativa os alunos deverão trabalhar em pequenos grupos heterogéneos, com o objectivo de ser possível a partilha de experiências, aprendizagens e conhecimentos comuns. Pretende-se desta forma envolver todos os alunos no processo de aprendizagem, sendo essa heterogeneidade o agente facilitador. A investigação teve como base a oferta de actividades de carácter cooperativo, organizadas para uma população alvo composta por 46 alunos de 3º ciclo, mais concretamente duas turmas de 7ºano da Escola E.B. 2,3 Telheiras nº1. A recolha de dados acompanhou a realização destas actividades através da entrega de questionários sociométricos aos alunos em questão, no sentido de apurar até que ponto os objectivos propostos de integração dos alunos mais rejeitados nas turmas foram bem-sucedidos ou não. Finalizado este processo, é possível concluir a importância dos jogos colaborativos como estratégia/ferramenta pedagógica facilitadora da integração de alunos desenquadrados da turma.

Efficient fully nonlinear data assimilation for geophysical fluid dynamics

A potential problem with Ensemble Kalman Filter is the implicit Gaussian assumption at analysis times. Here we explore the performance of a recently proposed fully nonlinear particle filter on a high-dimensional but simplified ocean model, in which the Gaussian assumption is not made. The model simulates the evolution of the vorticity field in time, described by the barotropic vorticity equation, in a highly nonlinear flow regime. While common knowledge is that particle filters are inefficient and need large numbers of model runs to avoid degeneracy, the newly developed particle filter needs only of the order of 10-100 particles on large scale problems. The crucial new ingredient is that the proposal density cannot only be used to ensure all particles end up in high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations, but also to ensure that most of the particles have similar weights. Using identical twin experiments we found that the ensemble mean follows the truth reliably, and the difference from the truth is captured by the ensemble spread. A rank histogram is used to show that the truth run is indistinguishable from any of the particles, showing statistical consistency of the method.

Order and disorder in fiction labyrinths: the librarians` representations in some contemporary cultural productions

This paper, first result of a larger research, proposes a query about some aspects of social representation of libraries and librarians, as they appear in literary and cinematographic productions. Little by little, this query, which arose from purposes of organizing catalogues, revealed elements that established different series, in which the narrative genre (literary or cinematographic) has no relevance to either libraries or librarians` representations. The presence of these elements seems to show some expectations and utopias in relation to the common knowledge, independently from narratives being located in the past, in the present or in the future, stimulating reflection on some medieval and baroque traditions about the library universe and its main characters, the librarians. The cinematographic material selected for research was The time machine, Farenheit 451, The day after tomorrow, Star Wars - episode II and the novels Martin Eden, The man without qualities, The time machine and La sombra del viento.

Sentencing of indigenous offenders in Victoria

It is common knowledge, especially in the context of the findings of the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody (RCIADIC),' that indigenous persons are over-represented at all stages of the criminal justice system. Unfortunately, little has changed since the RCIADIC and indigenous representation in prisons throughout the states and territories of Australia remains at high levels. What has come to prominence since the RCIADIC, particularly through the findings of the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission in the 1997 report Bringing Them Home, is the notion of the Stolen Generation. For practitioners with indigenous clients, an important matter that may be put in mitigation is the effect of belonging to the Stolen Generation in terms of offering not only an explanation for offending, but also in terms of submissions put forward on behalf of the client pertaining to disposition. In this context, the Victorian Court of Appeal decision in R v Fuller-Cust is an important one, particularly the dissenting judgment of Eames J. His Honour, in a persuasive and well-reasoned judgment, suggests a method of sentencing indigenous offenders that relates questions of Aboriginality, the Stolen Generation and punishment.

A primer on mathematical modelling in economics

The Commission on Graduate Education in Economics had raised several concerns regarding the role of mathematics in graduate training in economics (Krueger, 1991; Colander, 1998, 2005). This paper undertakes a detailed scrutiny of the notion of a utility function to motivate and describe the common patterns across mathematical concepts and results that are used by economists. In the process one arrives at a classification of mathematical terms which is used to state mathematical results in economics. The usefulness of the classification scheme is illustrated with the help of a discussion of Arrow's impossibility theorem. Common knowledge of the patterns in mathematical concepts and results could be effective in enhancing communication between students, teachers and researchers specializing in different sub-fields of economics.

Mining allocating patterns in one-sum weighted items

An Association Rule (AR) is a common knowledge model in data mining that describes an implicative cooccurring relationship between two disjoint sets of binary-valued transaction database attributes (items), expressed in the form of an "antecedent⇒ consequent" rule. A variant of the AR is the Weighted Association Rule (WAR). With regard to a marketing context, this paper introduces a new knowledge model in data mining -ALlocating Pattern (ALP). An ALP is a special form of WAR, where each rule item is associated with a weighting score between 0 and 1, and the sum of all rule item scores is 1. It can not only indicate the implicative co-occurring relationship between two (disjoint) sets of items in a weighted setting, but also inform the "allocating" relationship among rule items. ALPs can be demonstrated to be applicable in marketing and possibly a surprising variety of other areas. We further propose an Apriori based algorithm to extract hidden and interesting ALPs from a "one-sum" weighted transaction database. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. © 2008 IEEE.

New models of old(?) payment questions

Is private money feasible and desirable? In its absence, is there a central bank policy that partially or fully substitutes for private money? In this paper, some recent modeling ideas about how to address these questioned are reviewed and applied. The main ideas are that people cannot commit to future actions and that their histories are to some extent unknown - are not common knowledge. Under the additional assumption that the private monies issued by diferent people are distinct, a strong recognizability assumption, it is shown that there is a role for private money.

A gestão do processo de negociação complexa: uma avaliação da 5ª Conferência Ministerial da Organização Mundial do Comércio - OMC, em Cancun, México

Pretende-se no presente trabalho avaliar a gestão do processo de negociação complexa da 5ª Conferência Ministerial da Organização Mundial do Comércio em Cancún, ocorrida entre os dias 10 e 14 de setembro de 2003, no México, apontando os problemas e questões que resultaram no colapso de um possível acordo. O futuro da OMC é incerto e mudanças traumáticas sofridas por muitos países que vivem sob as regras da OMC indicam que alguma coisa na OMC terá que mudar, principalmente nos processos de negociação complexa, de forma que a integridade da organização não seja comprometida. Buscou-se respostas na análise e avaliação da gestão do processo de negociação, estudando e pesquisando os conceitos de barganha posicional, detalhando o processo de negociação baseado em princípios, explorando em profundidade o estado da arte para gestão de conversas difíceis. Dissecando a questão dos conflitos e das coalizões, mostrando a dificuldade existente na resolução de disputas públicas e no uso de instrumentos para quebrar o impasse nas negociações buscou-se estabelecer o instrumental teórico que possibilitasse aprofundar o diagnóstico da situação atual na OMC. Como recomendação explorou-se a avaliação de conflitos, com base na eficiência - teoria dos jogos-, justiça e na eqüidade, a melhor forma de negociação baseada em princípios, de gestão de público demandante, no diálogo dos multistakeholders, a importância das conversas informais paralelas, o ambiente da complexidade e a visão ampla que proporciona o enfoque do funcionamento de sistemas decisórios autopoiéticos.

Are the antiglobalizers right?: the issue of trade without a Walrasian auctioneer

This paper analyzes the determinants of expectational coordination on the perfect foresight equilibrium of an open economy in the class of one-dimensional models where the price is determined by price expectations. In this class of models, we relate autarky expectational stability conditions to regional integration ones, providing an intuitive open economy interpretation ofthe elasticities condition obtained by Guesnerie [11]. There, we show that the degree of structural heterogeneity trades-off the existence of standard efficiency gains -due to the increase in competition (spatial price stabilization)- and coordination upon the welfare enhancing free-trade equilibrium (stabilizing price expectations). This trade-off provides a new rationale for an exogenous price intervention at the international levei. Through the coordinational concern of the authority, trading countries are ab]e to fully reap the bene:fits from trade. We illustrate this point showing that classical measures evaluating ex-ante the desirability of economic integration (net welfare gains) do not always advise integration between two expectationally stable economies.

Inflation targeting, credibility and coordination aspects

There are plenty of economic studies pointing out some requirements, like the inexistence of fiscal dominance, for inflation targeting framework be implemented in successful (credible) way. Essays on how public targets could be used in the absence of such requirements are unusual. In this papel' we appraise how central banks could use inflation targeting before soundness economic fundamentaIs have been achieved. First, based on concise framework, where confidence crises and imperfect information are neglected, we conclude that less ambitious (greater) target for inflation increases the credibility in the precommitment. Optimal target is higher than the one obtained using the Cukierman-Liviatan [7] model, where increasing credibility effect is not considered. Second, extending the model to make confidence crises possible, multiple equilibria solutions becomes possible too. In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crises and reduce the policymaker credibility. On the other hand, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. The optimal target depends on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Finally, when perturbing common knowledge uniqueness is restored even considering confidence crises, as in Morris-Shin[ 14]. The first result, i.e. less ambitious target for inflation increases credibility in precommitment, is also recovered. Adding a precise public signal, cOOl'dinated self-fulfilling actions and equilibrium multiplicity may still exist for some lack of common knowledge (as in Angeleto and Weming[l]). In this case, to set greater targets for inflation may stimulate confidence crisis again, reducing the policymaker credibility. From another aspect, multiple (bad) equilibria may be avoided. Optimal policy prescriptions depend on the likelihood of each equilibrium be selected. Results also indicate that more precise public information may open the door for bad equilibrium, contrary to the conventional wisdom that more central oank transparency is always good when considering inflation targeting framework.

Dignidade da pessoa humana e medidas sócio-educativas do Estatuto da Criança e do Adolescente

The main goal of this work is to verify the presence of the principle of human dignity, determined by the Constitution of 1988, when Socio Educational Acts from the Statute of Children and adolescent were put in practice, focusing on the treatment designated to the youth whose acts were against the law in the city of Natal, as well as the difficulties to match the legal texts and its reality. It is common knowledge that the law for children and adolescent was based in the principle of human dignity, for its institutes say so. But would the Law match the practice of Socio Educational Acts? Or this law would be an example of good intentions that never left the paper and became reality? First there is an approach on the human dignity principle, with its definition and limitation, according to a theory about the theme. Afterwards it is made a connection between human rights and the principle of human dignity considering historical and social features, for the law is also a reflect of these transformations, we try to show the different laws the country had until today, concerning the children inflicted by poverty and those whose acts were against the law, since the rodas dos expostos, the phase of irregular situation, in which the children were arrested simply because they were beggars, until present time. The theory aspects are shown beside a field research made with the adolescent and staff from CEDUC/Natal, producing a critical view about the subject and showing some solutions for the problems found. At last, it is made a critical analyses of the problems detected on the field research, and, in some cases, a suggestion is given to change the reality

O movimento ortodôntico não induz reabsorção cervical externa ou O movimento ortodôntico não altera cor, volume e nem induz inflamação gengival

Nesse trabalho, procurou-se explicar - anatômica e funcionalmente - como se estrutura e se organiza a região cervical dos dentes, para fundamentar os seguintes questionamentos: 1) Por que ocorre Reabsorção Cervical Externa na dentição humana?; 2) Por que na gengivite e na periodontite não se tem Reabsorção Cervical Externa?; 3) Por que depois do traumatismo dentário e da clareação interna pode ocorrer a Reabsorção Cervical Externa?; 4) Por que o movimento ortodôntico não altera a cor e o volume gengival durante o tratamento?; 5) Por que o movimento ortodôntico não induz Reabsorção Cervical Externa, mesmo sabendo-se que a região cervical pode ser muito exigida? A existência de antígenos sequestrados na dentina, a presença de janelas de dentina na região cervical de todos os dentes, a reação do epitélio juncional e a distribuição dos vasos sanguíneos gengivais podem justificar por que a Reabsorção Cervical Externa não ocorre e nem a cor e o volume gengival são alterados no movimento ortodôntico.

SPT-T: test procedure and applications

Ranzini (1988) proposed the Standard Penetration Test with torque measurement (SPT-T) and some geotechnical engineers in Brazil have been using it since 1991. This paper presents the state of the art on SPT-T testing, emphasizing what is already established as common knowledge in Brazilian engineering practice, besides a suggestion for test procedure, including equipment and practical aspects. In addition, the study of the shape of the torque versus rotation-degree angle curve obtained by an electric torquemeter used in several SPT-T tests carried out on six experimental research sites in the southeast region of Brazil is discussed here. Four different methods to predict pile capacity based on SPT-T test results are briefly presented and a comparison with load tests carried out on different types of piles, on those six experimental research sites, is presented.