The Effects of Experience on Preference Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics for Public and Quasi-Public Environmental Goods

This paper develop and estimates a model of demand estimation for environmental public goods which allows for consumers to learn about their preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two environmental goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience makes consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.

Social norms, morals and self-interest as determinants of pro-environment behaviour.

This paper considers the role which selfish, moral and social incentives and pressures play in explaining the extent to which stated choices over pro-environment behaviours vary across individuals. The empirical context is choices over household waste contracts and recycling actions in Poland. A theoretical model is used to show how cost-based motives and the desire for a positive self- and social image combine to determine the utility from alternative choices of recycling behaviour. We then describe a discrete choice experiment designed to empirically investigate the effects such drivers have on stated choices. Using a latent class model, we distinguish three types of individual who are described as duty-orientated recyclers, budget recyclers and homo oeconomicus. These groups vary in their preferences for how frequently waste is collected, and the number of categories into which household waste must be recycled. Our results have implications for the design of future policies aimed at improving participation in recycling schemes.

Caracterització de la població de mosquit tigre asiàtic (Aedes albopictus) al municipi de Rubí i anàlisi de l'impacte ambiental associat en el medi socioeconòmic

Aedes albopictus (Skuse,1894) va ser detectada a Catalunya l’any 2004 a Sant Cugat del Vallés. El mosquit tigre asiàtic és espècie invasora que causa impactes negatius a nivell econòmic, sociosanitàri i mediambiental, principalment per les seves molestes picades però també pel potencial risc que té com a vector transmissor de diverses malalties com la febre groga i el dengue. En aquest treball és vol avaluar i estudiar la situació actual de l’espècie al municipi de Rubí (Vallés Occidental) a través de l’estudi per paranys d’oviposició. També és vol avaluar l’impacte que el mosquit tigre asiàtic té en el medi socioeconòmic a través de la metodologia de experiments d’elecció.

Détectabilité extra-fovéale sur des images anatomiques

Contexte¦- Les métastases hépatiques hypovasculaires sont parfois difficile à détecter car très polymorphiques et fréquemment irrégulières. Leurs contrastes sur CT scan hépatique sont souvent faibles.¦- Lors d'un diagnostic, le radiologue ne fixe pas sa vision fovéale sur chaque pixel de l'image. Les expériences de psychophysique avec eye-tracker montrent en effet que le radiologue se concentre sur quelques points spécifiques de l'image appelés fixations. Dans ce travail, nous nous intéresserons aux capacités de détection de l'oeil lorsque l'observateur effectue une saccade entre deux points de fixation. Plus particulièrement, nous nous intéresserons à caractériser les capacités de l'oeil à détecter les signaux se trouvant en dehors de sa vision fovéale, dans ce qu'on appelle, la vision périphérique.¦Objectifs¦- Caractériser l'effet de l'excentricité de la vision sur la détectabilité des contrastes dans le cas de métastases hépatiques hypovasculaires.¦- Récolter des données expérimentales en vue de créer un modèle mathématique qui permettra, à terme, de qualifier le système d'imagerie.¦- → objectifs du TM en soit :¦o prendre en main l'eyetracker¦o traduire une problématique médicale en une expérience scientifique reproductible, quantifiable et qualifiable.¦Méthode¦Nous effectuons une expérience 2AFC (2 Alternative Forced-Choice experiment) afin d'estimer la détectabilité du signal. Pour cela, nous forcerons l'observateur à maintenir son point de fixation à un endroit défini et vérifié par l'eye-tracker. La position del'excentricité du signal tumoral généré sur une coupe de CT hépatique sera le paramètre varié. L'observateur se verra présenté tour à tour deux coupes de CT hépatique, l'une comportant le signal tumoral standardisé et l'autre ne comportant pas le signal. L'observateur devra déterminer quelle image contient la pathologie avec la plus grande probabilité.¦- Cette expérience est un modèle simplifié de la réalité. En effet, le radiologue ne fixe pas un seul point lors de sa recherche mais effectue un "scanpath". Une seconde expérience, dite en free search sera effectuée dans la mesure du temps à disposition. Lors de cette expérience, le signal standardisé sera connu de l'observateur et il n'y aura plus de point de fixation forcée. L'eyetracker suivra le scanpath effectué par l'oeil de l'observateur lors de la recherche du signal sur une coupe de CT scan hépatique. L'intérêt de cette expérience réside dans l'observation de la corrélation entre les saccades et la découverte du signal. Elle permet aussi de vérifier les résultats obtenus lors de la première expérience.¦Résultats escomptés¦- Exp1 : Quantifier l'importance de l'excentricité en radiologie et aider à améliorer la performance de recherche.¦- Exp 2 : tester la validité des résultats obtenus par la première expérience.¦Plus value escomptée¦- Récolte de données pour créer un modèle mathématique capable de déterminer la qualité de l'image radiologique.¦- Possibilité d'extension à la recherche dans les trois dimensions du CT scan hépatique.

Does the generalist parasitic plant Cuscuta campestris selectively forage in heterogeneous plant communities?

Cuscuta spp. are holoparasitic plants that can simultaneously parasitise several host plants. It has been suggested that Cuscuta has evolved a foraging strategy based on a positive relationship between preuptake investment and subsequent reward on different host species. Here we establish reliable parasite size measures and show that parasitism on individuals of different host species alters the biomass of C. campestris but that within host species size and age also contributes to the heterogeneous resource landscape. We then performed two additional experiments to test whether C. campestris achieves greater resource acquisition by parasitising two host species rather than one and whether C. campestris forages in communities of hosts offering different rewards (a choice experiment). There was no evidence in either experiment for direct benefits of a mixed host diet. Cuscuta campestris foraged by parasitising the most rewarding hosts the fastest and then investing the most on them. We conclude that our data present strong evidence for foraging in the parasitic plant C. campestris.

The nesting biology of Ceratina (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in the Niagara Region : new species, nest site selection and parasitism

One of the most common bee genera in the Niagara Region, the genus Ceratina (Hymenoptera: Apidae) is composed of four species, C. dupla, C. calcarata, the very rare C. strenua, and a previously unknown species provisionally named C. near dupla. The primary goal of this thesis was to investigate how these closely related species coexist with one another in the Niagara ~ee community. The first necessary step was to describe and compare the nesting biologies and life histories of the three most common species, C. dupla, C. calcarata and the new C. near dupla, which was conducted in 2008 via nest collections and pan trapping. Ceratina dupla and C. calcarata were common, each comprising 49% of the population, while C. near dupla was rare, comprising only 2% of the population. Ceratina dupla and C. near dupla both nested more commonly in teasel (Dipsacus sp.) in the sun, occasionally in raspberry (Rubus sp.) in the shade, and never in shady sumac (Rhus sp.), while C. calcarata nested most commonly in raspberry and sumac (shaded) and occasionally in teasel (sunny). Ceratina near dupla differed from both C. dupla and C. calcarata in that it appeared to be partially bivoltine, with some females founding nests very early and then again very late in the season. To examine the interactions and possible competition for nests that may be taking place between C. dupla and C. calcarata, a nest choice experiment was conducted in 2009. This experiment allowed both species to choose among twigs from all three substrates in the sun and in the shade. I then compared the results from 2008 (where bees chose from what was available), to where they nested when given all options (2009 experiment). Both C. dupla and C. calcarata had the same preferences for microhabitat and nest substrate in 2009, that being raspberry and sumac twigs in the sun. As that microhabitat and nest substrate combination is extremely rare in nature, both species must make a choice. In nature Ceratina dupla nests more often in the preferred microhabitat (sun), while C. calcarata nests in the preferred substrate (raspberry). Nesting in the shade also leads to smaller clutch sizes, higher parasitism and lower numbers of live brood in C. calcarata, suggesting that C. dupla may be outcompeting C. calcarata for the sunny nesting sites. The development and host preferences of Ceratina parasitoids were also examined. Ceratina species in Niagara were parasitized by no less than eight species of arthropod. Six of these were wasps from the superfamily Chalcidoidea (Hymenoptera), one was a wasp from the family Ichneumonidae (Hymenoptera) and one was a physogastric mite from the family Pyemotidae (Acari). Parasites shared a wide range of developmental strategies, from ichneumonid larvae that needed to consume multiple Ceratina immatures to complete development, to the species from the Eulophidae (Baryscapus) and Encyrtidae (Coelopencyrtus), in which multiple individuals completed development inside a single Ceratina host. Biological data on parasitoids is scarce in the scientific literature, and this Chapter documents these interactions for future research.

Willingness to pay for imported and seasonal foods: a UK survey

We report results from an investigation into consumer preferences for locally produced foods. Using a choice experiment we estimate willingness to pay for foods of a designated origin together with certification for organic and free of genetically modified (GM)ingredients. Our results indicate that there is a preference for locally produced food that is GM free, organic, and produced in the traditional season.

Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

The value of badger populations and control of tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales: A note

This note reports on the results of a choice experiment survey of 400 people in England and Wales, conducted to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population. The study was undertaken in the context of the possible need to reduce the badger population by culling to help control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. The study found that people were concerned about the problem of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, which was reflected in their willingness to pay to control the disease, and gave a relatively low value to changes in the size of the badger population (within limits). However, people did not like the idea of a policy that intentionally killed large numbers of badgers and had a relatively very high willingness to pay not to have such a policy.

Public values for badgers, bovine TB reduction and management strategies

This paper applies an attribute-based stated choice experiment approach to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population in England and Wales. The study was undertaken in the context of a rising incidence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle and the government's review of current bTB control policy. This review includes consideration of culling badgers to reduce bTB in cattle, since badgers are thought to be an important wildlife reservoir for the disease. The design of the CE involved four attributes (size of badger population, cattle slaughtered due to bTB, badger management strategy and household tax) at four levels with eight choice sets of two alternatives presented to respondents. Telephone interviews were undertaken with over 400 respondents, which elicited their attitudes and preferences concerning badgers, bTB in cattle and badger management strategies. The study estimated a willingness to pay of 0.10 pound per household per year per 100,000 badgers and 1.52 pound per household per year per 10,000 cattle slaughtered due to bTB which aggregated to 22 per badger and 3298 pound per bTB slaughtered animal for all households in England and Wales. Management strategy toward badgers had a very high valuation, highlighting the emotive issue of badger culling for respondents and the importance of government policy towards badgers.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Farmers’ willingness to pay for a tuberculosis cattle vaccine

We use contingent valuation (CV) and choice experiment (CE) methods to assess cattle farmers’ attitudes to and willingness to pay (WTP) for a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) cattle vaccine, to help inform vaccine development and policy. A survey questionnaire was administered by means of telephone interviews to a stratified sample of 300 cattle farmers in annually bTB-tested areas in England and Wales. Farmers felt that bTB was a major risk for the cattle industry and that there was a high risk of their cattle getting the disease. The CE estimate produced a mean WTP of £35 per animal per single dose for a vaccine that is 90% effective at reducing the risk of a bTB breakdown and an estimated £55 for such a vaccine backed by 100% insurance of loss if a breakdown should occur. The CV estimate produced a mean WTP of nearly £17 per dose/per animal/per year for a vaccine (including 100% insurance) which, given the average lifespan of cattle, is comparable to the CE estimate. These WTP estimates are substantially higher than the expected cost of a vaccine which suggests that farmers in high risk bTB ‘hotspot’ areas perceive a substantial net benefit from buying the vaccine.

Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.

Investigating the value dairy farmers place on a reduction of lameness in their herds using a willingness to pay approach

A survey was conducted to elicit dairy farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the prevalence of lameness in their herds. A choice experiment questionnaire was administered using face-to-face interviews of 163 farmers in England and Wales. Whole herd lameness assessments by trained researchers recorded a mean lameness prevalence of nearly 24% which was substantially higher than that estimated by farmers. Farmers’ responses to a series of attitudinal questions showed that they strongly agreed that cows can suffer a lot of pain from lameness and believed that they could reduce lameness in their herds. Farmers’ mean WTP to avoid lameness amounted to UK£411 per lame cow but with considerable variation across the sample. Median WTP of UK£249 per lame cow was considered a better measure of central tendency for the sample. In addition, the survey found that farmers had a substantial WTP to avoid the inconvenience associated with lameness control (a median value of UK£97 per lame cow) but that they were generally prepared to incur greater inconvenience if it reduced lameness. The study findings suggest that farmers need a better understanding of the scale and costs of lameness in their herds and the benefits of control. To encourage action, farmers need to be convinced that lameness control measures perceived as inconvenient will be cost effective.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.