How to prolong life : an inquiry into the cause of old age and natural death, showing the diet and agents best adapted for a lengthened prolongation of human life on earth : rejuvenescence by means of phosphorus & distilled water /

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Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study.

To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Emergence and disappearance of a virulent clone of Haemophilus influenzae biogroup aegyptius, cause of Brazilian Purpuric Fever

Summary: In 1984, children presented to the emergency department of a hospital in the small town of Promissão, São Paulo State, Brazil, with an acute febrile illness that rapidly progressed to death. Local clinicians and public health officials recognized that these children had an unusual illness, which led to outbreak investigations conducted by Brazilian health officials in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The studies that followed are an excellent example of the coordinated and parallel studies that are used to investigate outbreaks of a new disease, which became known as Brazilian purpuric fever (BPF). In the first outbreak investigation, a case-control study confirmed an association between BPF and antecedent conjunctivitis but the etiology of the disease could not be determined. In a subsequent outbreak, children with BPF were found to have bacteremia caused by Haemophilus influenzae biogroup aegyptius (H. aegyptius), an organism previously known mainly to cause self-limited purulent conjunctivitis. Molecular characterization of blood and other isolates demonstrated the clonal nature of the H. aegyptius strains that caused BPF, which were genetically distant from the diverse strains that cause only conjunctivitis. This led to an intense effort to identify the factors causing the unusual invasiveness of the BPF clone, which has yet to definitively identify the virulence factor or factors involved. After a series of outbreaks and sporadic cases through 1993, no additional cases of BPF have been reported

Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Is a Strong Predictor of Death in Women

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic value and risk classification improvement using contemporary single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) to predict all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND Myocardial perfusion is a strong estimator of prognosis. Evidence published to date has not established the added prognostic value of SPECT-MPI nor defined an approach to detect improve classification of risk in women from a developing nation. METHODS A total of 2,225 women referred for SPECT-MPI were followed by a mean period of 3.7 +/- 1.4 years. SPECT-MPI results were classified as abnormal on the presence of any perfusion defect. Abnormal scans were further classified as with mild/moderate reversible, severe reversible, partial reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Risk estimates for incident mortality were categorized as <1%/year, 1% to 2%/year, and >2%/year using Cox proportional hazard models. Risk-adjusted models incorporated clinical risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and perfusion variables. RESULTS All-cause death occurred in 139 patients. SPECT-MPI significantly risk stratified the population; patients with abnormal scans had significantly higher death rates compared with patients with normal scans, 13.1% versus 4.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for clinical risk factors and LVEF, SPECT-MPI improved the model discrimination (integrated discrimination index = 0.009; p = 0.02), added significant incremental prognostic information (global chi-square increased from 87.7 to 127.1; p < 0.0001), and improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS SPECT-MPI added significant incremental prognostic information to clinical and left ventricular functional variables while enhancing the ability to classify this Brazilian female population into low-and high-risk categories of all-cause mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2011;4:880-8) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Pediatric epilepsy surgery and sudden unexpected death epilepsy: the contribution of a Brazilian epilepsy surgery program

Individuals with epilepsy are at higher risk of death than those from the general population, and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. Epilepsies in the pediatric group are more frequently associated with known potentially risk factors for SUDEP, and a treatment resulting in an improved seizure control may also decrease mortality. The aim of this study is to identify the incidence of SUDEP in a group of operated-on children and adolescents. We analyzed 267 patients up to 18 years old, with medically intractable epilepsy submitted to surgery. We considered the age at surgery, the seizure type, the pathological findings, and the seizure outcome. Data were prospectively collected, according to the protocols of our institution`s ethics committee. The percentage of boys was 58.05. A good outcome was achieved in 72.6% of the cases and a bad outcome in 27.4%. Nine patients died during follow-up, six from clinical complications, and one from SUDEP. All patients who died during the long-term follow-up had persisted with refractory postoperative seizures. The patient who died from SUDEP died during a generalized tonic-clonic seizure. Of the patients, 72.6% had excellent postoperative outcome, and one patient died of SUDEP. All patients who died had had disabling seizures` persistence. The surgical treatment of epilepsy in children and adolescents is an efficient therapy for the medically intractable symptomatic epilepsies and also for the reduction of mortality and SUDEP risks.

Benefits of sunlight: Vitamin D deficiency might increase the risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy

Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological condition and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. information concerning risk factors for SUDEP is conflicting, but high seizure frequency is a potential risk factor. Additionally, potential pathomechanisms for SUDEP are unknown, but it is very probable that cardiac arrhythmias during and between seizures or transmission of epileptic activity to the heart via the autonomic nervous system potentially play a role. In parallel, studies have shown a link between vitamin D dysfunction and epilepsy. Moreover, several evidences in the literature suggest an association between low vitamin D and seizures, indicating the possibility of anticonvulsant properties of this hormone. Quite interesting, a growing body of data suggests that low vitamin D levels may adversely affect cardiovascular health, directly associated with death from heart failure and sudden cardiac death. In view of the above findings, our research group focused in this review article that SUDEP, at least in some cases, could be related with low vitamin D levels. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Death caused by cardioinhibitory reflex cardiac arrest--a systematic review of cases.

Forensic pathologists often refer to the cardioinhibitory reflex cardiac arrest (CiRCA) following short neck trauma as a mechanism of death. We sought via a systematic review of the literature to identify circumstances under which carotid bifurcation stimulation could lead to death. Two independent reviewers selected case studies or reports from Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Embase. Circumstances and contributory factors were extracted for each case. From the available data, authors independently assessed whether CiRCA was highly probable (no alternative explanation possible), probable (alternative explanation possible), or unlikely (alternative explanation highly probable). A narrative approach was used to define circumstances in which CiRCA remained possible. From the 48 published cases evoking CiRCA as a possible cause of death between 1881 and 2009, 28 were most likely to result of other mechanism of death (i.e., cerebral hypoxia due to carotid compression, mechanical asphyxia, myocardial infarction). CiRCA remained possible for 20 cases (including five based on anecdotal evidence only) with only one case with no alternative explanation other than CiRCA. Our findings support the presumption that reflex cardiac arrhythmia due to carotid bifurcation stimulation cannot provoke death alone. Actual state of knowledge suggests CiRCA might be contributory to death in the presence of drug abuse and/or cardiac pathology, often associated with physical and/or mental excitation.

Involvement of amphetamines in sudden and unexpected death.

In the present study, the effects of amphetamine-class drugs were examined in cases reported to the Victorian coroner from 2001 to 2005 to determine if death can occur from the use of amphetamine-class drugs alone. A total of 169 cases were reviewed where a forensic autopsy detected amphetamine(s) in the blood. Pathology, toxicology, and police reports were analyzed in all cases to ascertain the involvement of amphetamine-class drugs in these deaths. In Victoria, methamphetamine (MA) is the principal abused amphetamine-class followed by methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). There were six cases in which a cerebral hemorrhage caused death and three cases in which serotonin syndrome was established as being caused by the interaction of MDMA and moclobemide. There were 19 cases in which long-term use of amphetamines was associated with heart disease. There were three cases where amphetamine-class drugs alone were regarded as the cause of death, of which two cases exhibited high levels of MDMA and lesser amounts of MA and/or amphetamine. There were no cases in which significant natural disease was absent and death was regarded as caused by the use of MA. There was no correlation between blood concentration of drug and outcome.

Comparison of 2 frailty indexes for prediction of falls, disability, fractures, and death in older women.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.

L'autopsie moléculaire de la mort subite cardiaque: de la salle d'autopsie au cabinet du praticien [Molecular autopsy of sudden cardiac death: from postmortem to clinical approach]

Sudden cardiac death is one of the most prevalent cause of death in developed countries. Its aetiology varies according to the age. Some cardiac diseases may explain sudden death with minimal or no anatomic findings. However, many cardiac diseases, as for example channelopathies and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy have a genetic basis. Therefore genetic analyses (molecular autopsy) are becoming a useful tool in forensic medicine to identify the cause of sudden cardiac death and to improve the early diagnosis of asymptomatic carriers among relatives.

Why human islets die? analysis of death signaling pathways during isolation and following cytokine treatments

RESUME Le diabète de type 1 se définit comme un désordre métabolique d'origine auto-immune qui aboutit à la destruction progressive et sélective de la cellule ß-pancréatique sécrétrice d'insuline. Cette maladie représente 10 % des cas de diabète enregistrés dans la population mondiale, et touche les jeunes de moins de 20 ans. Le traitement médical par insulinothérapie corrige le manque d'hormone mais ne prévient pas les nombreuses complications telles que les atteintes cardiaques, neurologiques, rénales, rétiniennes, et les amputations que la maladie provoque. Le remplacement de la cellule ß par transplantation d'îlots de Langerhans est une alternative prometteuse au traitement médical du diabète de type 1. Cependant la greffe d'îlots est encore un traitement expérimental et ne permet pas un contrôle efficace de la glycémie au long terme chez les patients transplantés, et les raisons de cet échec restent mal comprises. L'obstacle immédiat qui se pose est la purification d'un nombre suffisant d'îlots viables et la perte massive de ces îlots dans les premières heures suite à la greffe. Cette tendance presque systématique de la perte fonctionnelle du greffon immédiatement après la transplantation est connue sous le terme de « primary graft non-function » (PNF). En effet, la procédure d'isolement des îlots provoque la destruction des composantes cellulaires et non cellulaires du tissu pancréatique qui jouent un rôle déterminant dans le processus de survie de l'îlot. De plus, la transplantation elle-même expose les cellules à différents stress, notamment le stress par les cytokines inflammatoires qui encourage la mort cellulaire par apoptose et provoque par la suite le rejet de la greffe. L'ensemble de ces mécanismes aboutit a une perte de la masse d'îlot estimée a plus de 60%. Dans ce contexte, nous nous sommes intéressés à définir les voies majeures de stress qui régissent cette perte massive d'îlot par apoptose lors du processus d'isolement et suite à l'exposition immédiate aux cytokines. L'ensemble des résultats obtenus indique que plusieurs voies de signalisation intracellulaire sont recrutées qui s'activent de manière maximale très tôt lors des premières phases de l'isolement. La mise en culture des îlots deux jours permet aux voies activées de revenir aux taux de base. De ce fait nous proposons une stratégie dite de protection qui doit être 1) initiée aussitôt que possible lors de l'isolement des îlots pancréatiques, 2) devrait probablement bloquer l'activation de ces différentes voies de stress mis en évidence lors de notre étude et 3) devrait inclure la mise en culture des îlots purifiés deux jours après l'isolement et avant la transplantation. RESUME LARGE PUBLIC Le diabète est une maladie qui entraîne un taux anormalement élevé de sucre (glucose) dans le sang du à une insuffisance du pancréas endocrine à produire de l'insuline, une hormone qui régule la glycémie (taux de glucose dans le sang). On distingue deux types majeurs de diabètes; le diabète de type 1 ou juvénile ou encore appelé diabète maigre qui se manifeste souvent pendant l'enfance et qui se traduit par une déficience absolue en insuline. Le diabète de type 2 ou diabète gras est le plus fréquent, et touche les sujets de plus de 40 ans qui souffrent d'obésité et qui se traduit par une dysfonction de la cellule ß avec une incapacité à réguler la glycémie malgré la production d'insuline. Dans le diabète de type 1, la destruction de la cellule ß est programmée (apoptose) et est majoritairement provoquée par des médiateurs inflammatoires appelés cytokines qui sont produites localement par des cellules inflammatoires du système immunitaire qui envahissent la cellule ß-pancréatiques. Les cytokines activent différentes voies de signalisation parmi lesquelles on distingue celles des Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase (MAPKs) composées de trois familles de MAPKs: ERK1/2, p38, et JNK, et la voie NF-κB. Le traitement médical par injections quotidiennes d'insuline permet de contrôler la glycémie mais ne prévient pas les nombreuses complications secondaires liées à cette maladie. La greffe d'îlots de Langerhans est une alternative possible au traitement médical, considérée avantageuse comparée a la greffe du pancréas entier. En effet l'embolisation d'îlots dans le foie par injection intraportale constitue une intervention simple sans complications majeures. Néanmoins la technique de préparation d'îlots altère la fonction endocrine et cause la perte massive d'îlots pancréatiques. De plus, la transplantation elle-même expose la cellule ß à différents stress, notamment le stress par les cytokines inflammatoires qui provoque le rejet de greffon cellulaire. Dans la perspective d'augmenter les rendements des îlots purifiés, nous nous sommes intéressés à définir les voies majeures de stress qui régissent cette perte massive d'îlot lors du processus d'isolement et suite à l'exposition immédiate aux cytokines après transplantation. L'ensemble de ces résultats indique que le stress induit lors de l'isolement des îlots et celui des cytokines recrute différentes voies de signalisation intracellulaire (JNK, p38 et NF-κB) qui s'additionnent entre-elles pour altérer la fonction et la viabilité de l'îlot. De ce fait une stratégie doit être mise en place pour bloquer toute action synergique entre ces différentes voies activées pour améliorer la viabilité et la fonction de la cellule ß lors du greffon cellulaire. SUMMARY Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is an autoimmune disease characterized by the progressive and selective destruction of the pancreatic ß-cells that secrete insulin, leading to absolute insulin deficiency. T1DM accounts for about 10% of all diabetes cases, affecting persons younger than 20 years of age. Medical treatment using daily exogenous insulin injection corrects hormone deficiency but does not prevent devastating complications such as heart attack, neuropathy, kidney failure, blindness, and amputation caused by the disease. Pancreatic islet transplantation (PIT) is one strategy that holds promise to cure patients with T1DM, but purified pancreatic islet grafts have failed to maintain long-term glucose homeostasis in human recipients, the reasons for this failure being still poorly understood. There is however a more immediate problem with islet grafting that is dependent upon poor islet recovery from donors and early islet loss following the first hours of grafting. This tendency of islet grafts to fail to function within a short period after transplantation is termed primary graft non-function (PNF). Indeed, the islet isolation procedure itself destroys cellular and non-cellular components of the pancreas that may play a role in supporting islet survival. Further, islet transplantation exposes cells to a variety of stressful stimuli, notably pro-inflammatory cytokines that encourage ß-cell death by apoptosis and lead to early graft failure. Altogether these mechanisms lead to an estimated loss of 60% of the total islet mass. Here, we have mapped the major intracellular stress signaling pathways that may mediate human islet loss by apoptosis during isolation and following cytokine attack. We found that several stress pathways are maximally activated from the earliest stages of the isolation procedure. Culturing islet for two days allow for the activated pathways to return to basal levels. We propose that protective strategies should 1) be initiated as early as possible during isolation of the islets, 2) should probably target the activated stress pathways that we uncovered during our studies and 3) should include culturing islets for two days post-isolation and prior transplantation.

Alcohol-attributable mortality in Switzerland in 2011--age-specific causes of death and impact of heavy versus non-heavy drinking.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use causes high burden of disease and injury globally. Switzerland has a high consumption of alcohol, almost twice the global average. Alcohol-attributable deaths and years of life lost in Switzerland were estimated by age and sex for the year 2011. Additionally, the impact of heavy drinking (40+grams/day for women and 60+g/day for men) was estimated. METHODS: Alcohol consumption estimates were based on the Addiction Monitoring in Switzerland study and were adjusted to per capita consumption based on sales data. Mortality data were taken from the Swiss mortality register. Methodology of the Comparative Risk Assessment for alcohol was used to estimate alcohol-attributable fractions. RESULTS: Alcohol use caused 1,600 (95% CI: 1,472 - 1,728) net deaths (1,768 deaths caused, 168 deaths prevented) among 15 to 74 year olds, corresponding to 8.7% of all deaths (men: 1,181 deaths; women: 419 deaths). Overall, 42,627 years of life (9.7%, 95% CI: 40,245 - 45,008) were lost due to alcohol. Main causes of alcohol-attributable mortality were injuries at younger ages (15-34 years), with increasing age digestive diseases (mainly liver cirrhosis) and cancers (particularly breast cancers among women). The majority (62%) of all alcohol-attributable deaths was caused by chronic heavy drinking (men: 67%; women: 48 %). CONCLUSION: Alcohol is a major cause of premature mortality in Switzerland. Its impact, among young people mainly via injuries, among men mainly through heavy drinking, calls for a mix of preventive actions targeting chronic heavy drinking, binge drinking and mean consumption.

Cardiovascular Pathology. 004. Pathomorphological and CT-angiographical characteristics of coronary atherosclerotic plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death

Objective. The goal of this study was to present the pathological and radiological patterns of "vulnerable" atherosclerotic plaques in cases of sudden cardiac death. Method. This retrospective study was performed on forensic cases for which the cause of death was attributed to coronary artery disease. A complete autopsy was performed in all cases, along with either post-mortem CT-angiography, toxicological analyses and/or biochemistry. Results. 89 cases were selected (mean age 55±11.6 years; 75 men and 14 women). In 96.6% of cases a CT-angiography was performed. Acute coronary lesions were found in 60 cases (mean age 53±11.1 years), which included plaque erosion in 26 cases (mean age 47±8.3 years) and ruptures or intraplaque hemorrhage in 33 cases (mean age 58±10.4 years). Erosions were most frequently found in the left ascending artery (61.5 %), while only 36% of ruptures were observed in this artery. Chronic coronary pathology was described in 30 cases (mean age 58±10.4 years). CT-angiographies performed prior to the autopsy enabled an initial evaluation of coronary artery perfusion. Conclusion. In the face of decreasing clinical autopsy rates, postmortem studies on forensic autopsies, including modern radiological examinations, allow for a more thorough understanding of the clinical picture of disease which can result in sudden cardiac death.

Estimation du degré de couverture d'un registre pour les cancers notifiés au décès [Evaluation of the comprehensiveness of a cancer register from death certificates].

The comparison of cancer prevalence with cancer mortality can lead under some hypotheses to an estimate of registration rate. A method is proposed, where the cases with cancer as a cause of death are divided into 3 categories: (1) cases already known by the registry (2) unknown cases having occured before the registry creation date (3) unknown cases occuring during the registry operates. The estimate is then the number of cases in the first category divided by the total of those in categories 1 and 3 (these only are to be registered). An application is performed on the data of the Canton de Vaud. Survival rates of the Norvegian Cancer Registry are used for computing the number of unknown cases to be included in second and third category, respectively. The discussion focusses on the possible determinants of the obtained comprehensiveness rates for various cancer sites.