Modelos de previsão de deterioração de pontes existentes: processos de Markov

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil

Pol??tica educativa y sociedad : gen??sis y transformaciones de sus principales escenarios y redes de actores

Resumen basado en el que aporta la revista

Desenvolvimento de arquitetura para sistemas de reconhecimento automático de voz baseados em modelos ocultos de Markov

Este trabalho foi realizado dentro da área de reconhecimento automático de voz (RAV). Atualmente, a maioria dos sistemas de RAV é baseada nos modelos ocultos de Markov (HMMs) [GOM 99] [GOM 99b], quer utilizando-os exclusivamente, quer utilizando-os em conjunto com outras técnicas e constituindo sistemas híbridos. A abordagem estatística dos HMMs tem mostrado ser uma das mais poderosas ferramentas disponíveis para a modelagem acústica e temporal do sinal de voz. A melhora da taxa de reconhecimento exige algoritmos mais complexos [RAV 96]. O aumento do tamanho do vocabulário ou do número de locutores exige um processamento computacional adicional. Certas aplicações, como a verificação de locutor ou o reconhecimento de diálogo podem exigir processamento em tempo real [DOD 85] [MAM 96]. Outras aplicações tais como brinquedos ou máquinas portáveis ainda podem agregar o requisito de portabilidade, e de baixo consumo, além de um sistema fisicamente compacto. Tais necessidades exigem uma solução em hardware. O presente trabalho propõe a implementação de um sistema de RAV utilizando hardware baseado em FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) e otimizando os algoritmos que se utilizam no RAV. Foi feito um estudo dos sistemas de RAV e das técnicas que a maioria dos sistemas utiliza em cada etapa que os conforma. Deu-se especial ênfase aos Modelos Ocultos de Markov, seus algoritmos de cálculo de probabilidades, de treinamento e de decodificação de estados, e sua aplicação nos sistemas de RAV. Foi realizado um estudo comparativo dos sistemas em hardware, produzidos por outros centros de pesquisa, identificando algumas das suas características mais relevantes. Foi implementado um modelo de software, descrito neste trabalho, utilizado para validar os algoritmos de RAV e auxiliar na especificação em hardware. Um conjunto de funções digitais implementadas em FPGA, necessárias para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de RAV é descrito. Foram realizadas algumas modificações nos algoritmos de RAV para facilitar a implementação digital dos mesmos. A conexão, entre as funções digitais projetadas, para a implementação de um sistema de reconhecimento de palavras isoladas é aqui apresentado. A implementação em FPGA da etapa de pré-processamento, que inclui a pré-ênfase, janelamento e extração de características, e a implementação da etapa de reconhecimento são apresentadas finalmente neste trabalho.

Algoritmos de otimização para decisões de localização de facilidades e distribuição em sistemas multiníveis de transporte rodoviário de carga

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Metodologia estatística na solução do problema do caixeiro viajante e na avaliação de algoritmos : um estudo aplicado à transgenética computacional

The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.

Estimação paramétrica e não-paramétrica em modelos de markov ocultos

In this work we study the Hidden Markov Models with finite as well as general state space. In the finite case, the forward and backward algorithms are considered and the probability of a given observed sequence is computed. Next, we use the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. In the general case, the kernel estimators are used and to built a sequence of estimators that converge in L1-norm to the density function of the observable process

Algoritmos de alinhamento múltiplo e técnicas de otimização para esses algoritmos utilizando Ant Colony

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE

Uso de algoritmos genéticos na otimização do sistema de coleta do palhiço de cana-de-açúcar

The Brazilian government has convinced the world that ethanol deriving from sugar cane is a promissory means of sustainable fuel for vehicles. There is a great growth of ex vehicles , i.e, run both by ethanol and gasoline, due to competent automotive industries and e cient alcohol production technology. In 2009 and 2010 the ethanol production was 25.7 billion liters and 53.8% of sugar cane production was destined to alcohol production. Nevertheless, the sugar production also derived from sugar cane should increase in 2011. Brazil produced 33 million tons of sugar in the last harvest. With sugar cane on the rise production is arising new environmental problems. The harvest using mechanized cut besides improving the logistic transportation system leaves the generating residue in the eld. This residue is a mixture of straw, leavings and scrap of sugar cane named sugar cane crop residue and corresponds to 30% of biomass and can be burned and produce electricity by cogeneration. But the transport the sugar cane crop from the eld is expensive due costs involved in the transport system. This work aims to propose a formulation for the bales collecting problem from sugar cane eld to mill that minimize the costs involved in the transport system. The computational tests use the C++ language and an algorithm based on genetic algorithms techniques

Apedunculata discoidea gen. n., sp. n. (Monogenea: Dactylogyridae) parasitic on Prochilodus lineatus (Valenciennes, 1837) (Characiformes: Prochilodontidae) from southeastern Brazil

A new species of dactylogyrid monogenean, Apedunculata discoidea gen. n., sp. n. is described and illustrated from the gills of the freshwater fish Prochilodus lineatus (Valenciennes, 1837) in pisciculture ponds from Pirassununga, São Paulo, Brazil. Diagnostic characters of the new genus and species are: 1) vagina dextrolateral slightly sclerotised, opening anteriorly at level of copulatory complex; 2) copulatory organ coiled with two counterclockwise rings; 3) Accessory piece distal and not articulated; 4) body disk-shaped, lacking a peduncle.

Aptidão agrícola e algoritmos genéticos na organização espacial em projetos de reforma agrária

A definição das parcelas familiares em projetos de reforma agrária envolve questões técnicas e sociais. Essas questões estão associadas principalmente às diferentes aptidões agrícolas do solo nestes projetos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar método para realizar o processo de ordenamento territorial em assentamentos de reforma agrária empregando Algoritmo Genético (AG). O AG foi testado no Projeto de Assentamento Veredas, em Minas Gerais, e implementado com base no sistema de aptidão agrícola das terras.

Agregação de cadeias de acetatos de celulose em LiCl/DMAc: avaliação via viscosimetria

Celulose de linter foi acetilada, visando obter acetatos de celulose com diferentes Graus de Substituição (GS) em meio homogêneo, usando cloreto de lítio/N,N-dimetilacetamida (LiCl/DMAc) como sistema de solvente, e anidrido acético como reagente acetilante. A agregação entre cadeias de celulose ou acetatos de celulose (GS 0,8, 1,5 e 2,0) em solução foi avaliada através de medidas viscosimétricas. Os resultados mostraram que a formação de agregados no sistema de solvente utilizado (LiCl/DMAc) é diferente para celulose e acetatos, e dependente da temperatura e do GS, no caso dos acetatos. Este trabalho corresponde à primeira etapa de um estudo em que se pretende preparar filmes de acetatos, assim como de acetatos reforçados com celulose, diretamente a partir de soluções destes em LiCl/DMAc. Os resultados apresentados permitem uma escolha melhor embasada do intervalo de concentração mais adequado para preparação de filmes, a partir de soluções de acetatos e celulose nesse sistema de solvente.

Cladistic analysis of Hemirhipini with establishment of Propalaus gen. nov. (Coleoptera, Elateridae, agrypninae)

This article includes a cladistic analysis of the tribe Hemirhipini. Are included 20 Hemirhipini genera (sensu Casari-Chen 1994), Saltamartinus Casari (1996b) (Hemirhipini), 6 genera excluded from Hemirhipini and kept in Agrypninae (formerly Pyrophorinae) (Casari-Chen 1993) and also, Aphileus Candèze (1857), Pyrophorus Billberg (1820) and Thoramus Sharp (1877). The type-species of the majority of genera and all species of the American genera (except Saltamartinus viduus (Chevrolat 1867)) are included. This analysis demonstrates that 30 genera belong to Hemirhipini: Abiphis Fleutiaux (1926), Alaolacon Candèze (1865), Alaomorphus Hauser (1900), Alaus Eschscholtz (1829), Aliteus Candèze (1857), Anthracalaus Fairmaire (1888), Aphileus Candèze (1857), Austrocalais Neboiss (1967), Calais Castelnau (1836), Catelanus Fleutiaux (1942), Chalcolepidius Eschscholtz (1829), Chalcolepis Candèze (1857), Conobajulus Van Zwaluwenburg (1940), Coryleus Fleutiaux (1942), Cryptalaus Ôhira (1967), Eleuphemus Hyslop (1921), Eumoeus Candèze (1874), Fusimorphus Fleutiaux (1942), Hemirhipus Latreille (1829), Lacais Fleutiaux (1942), Lycoreus Candèze (1857), Mocquerysia Fleutiaux (1899), Neocalais Girard (1971), Pherhimius Fleutiaux (1942), Phibisa Fleutiaux (1942), Propalaus gen. nov., Pseudocalais Girard (1971), Saltamartinus Casari (1996), Tetrigus Candèze (1857) and Thoramus Sharp (1877). The species included in Alaus do not make a monophyletic group and Propalaus gen. nov. is established to include Alaus alicii (Pjatakowa 1941) and A. haroldi (Candèze 1878). A description of Propalaus gen. nov. (type-species: Chalcolepidius haroldi Candèze, 1878) and a new key to Hemirhipini genera are also presented.

Stability and ergodicity of piecewise deterministic Markov processes

The main goal of this paper is to establish some equivalence results on stability, recurrence, and ergodicity between a piecewise deterministic Markov process ( PDMP) {X( t)} and an embedded discrete-time Markov chain {Theta(n)} generated by a Markov kernel G that can be explicitly characterized in terms of the three local characteristics of the PDMP, leading to tractable criterion results. First we establish some important results characterizing {Theta(n)} as a sampling of the PDMP {X( t)} and deriving a connection between the probability of the first return time to a set for the discrete-time Markov chains generated by G and the resolvent kernel R of the PDMP. From these results we obtain equivalence results regarding irreducibility, existence of sigma-finite invariant measures, and ( positive) recurrence and ( positive) Harris recurrence between {X( t)} and {Theta(n)}, generalizing the results of [ F. Dufour and O. L. V. Costa, SIAM J. Control Optim., 37 ( 1999), pp. 1483-1502] in several directions. Sufficient conditions in terms of a modified Foster-Lyapunov criterion are also presented to ensure positive Harris recurrence and ergodicity of the PDMP. We illustrate the use of these conditions by showing the ergodicity of a capacity expansion model.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models

We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.