spotlight europe # 2014/01 — February 2014: North Africa - Crisis and Consensus

The Arabellion is now in its fourth year. There is more freedom today, but less security. There are far more opportunities, but fewer jobs. And there is a patchwork of conflicts. In many places though the Arab world is tentatively moving towards democracy and the social market economy. Although there have been some difficulties along the way, European assistance for the transformation process is moving in the right direction. Still, the EU could certainly do more on the political level.

After the Euro Crisis: The President of Europe, A new paradigm for increasing legitimacy and effectiveness in the EU. EuropEos Commentary No. 12, 1 June 2012

The crisis in the eurozone– which became worse in Europe at the same time that the Lisbon Treaty entered in force at the end of 2009 – has presented the first test of the crisis management capabilities of the intergovernmental approach. As provided under the Lisbon Treaty, the European Council has been the true decision-making centre for the policies adopted in response to the financial crisis, with the Commission playing a technical role. This commentary finds, however, that this institutional set-up has been unsatisfactory and unable to overcome the three fundamental dilemmas of the integration process: the dilemma of veto power, the dilemma of enforcement of the agreements and the dilemma of decision-making legitimacy. While it remains to be seen whether the election of François Hollande as President of France signals the beginning of a new political cycle characterised by new ideas on the institutional future of the EU, if that were to materialise, this paper aims to contribute to the debate on those new ideas.

Eurozone Debt Crisis: Reckless debtors or misguided rescuers? EuropEos Commentary No. 10, 26 May 2011

Based on the latest round of difficulties to emerge from the Greek financial assistance programme, this commentary concludes that there are serious flaws in the design of the eurozone’s crisis management system that periodically push the members to the brink of financial meltdown. He warns that the same is bound to happen again with Ireland and Portugal, and each time with higher risks that the fabric of cooperation within the eurozone will tear irreparably. In order to fix them, he proposes three basic changes to the crisis management arrangements and the design of the European Stabilty Mechanism (ESM) decided in March by the European Council.

The Sahel Crisis: Where do European and African Perspectives Meet? IES Policy Brief Issue 2013/02/March 2013

Summary. The crisis in Mali has brought the Sahel to the centre of international attention. This fragile region not only suffers from longstanding development challenges, but also from an acute security vacuum that has triggered military intervention. Many questions have arisen as a consequence of the crisis. Has the European Union the ability to cope with such a complex and dynamically evolving security environment? How have divergent views on the political roadmap to be adopted, and the lack of resources at the African level, impacted the crisis response? Can the different players involved agree on what are the most pertinent needs and challenges to be addressed? Are they ready for long-term engagement? Can regional organisations effectively collaborate and are they able to successfully integrate different agendas? Following a conference organised by the Institute for European Studies, the Egmont Institute and the Observatoire de l’Afrique on these questions this Policy Brief builds on the findings of the conference and provides an analytical overview of the regional crisis by focusing on the main challenges facing the Sahel, the local and regional dynamics at play and the military and security response.

The Political Economy of Financial Crisis Policy. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/06, July 2015

Highlights • Government intervention to stabilise financial systems in times of banking crises ultimately involves political decisions. This paper sheds light on how certain political variables influence policy choices during banking crises and hence have an impact on fiscal outlays. • We employ cross-country econometric evidence from all crisis episodes in the period 1970-2011 to examine the impact political and party systems have on the fiscal cost of financial sector intervention. • Governments in presidential systems are associated with lower fiscal costs of crisis management because they are less likely to use costly bank guarantees, thus reducing the exposure of the state to significant contingent and direct fiscal liabilities. Consistent with these findings we find further evidence that these governments are less likely to use bank recapitalisation and more likely to impose losses on depositors.

Tourism crisis and disasters: Enhancing understanding of system effects

This paper examines the definitions and conceptual foundations of crises and distinguishes between crises and disasters. It takes a systems view of these concepts and uses the perspective of systems as organizational networks to examine implications for tourism managers. A tourism destination is perceived as consisting of a network of interacting organizations. This perspective questions the boundaries that should be used to study crisis and disasters. The paper also discusses the possibility of a crisis having a positive outcome for a destination.

Chaos Theory as an Approach to Understanding MICE in Time of Crisis

MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), has generated high foreign exchange revenue for the economy worldwide. In Thailand, MICE tourists are recognized as ‘quality’ visitors, mainly because of their high-spending potential. Having said that, Thailand’s MICE sector has been influenced by a number of crises following September 11, 2001. Consequently, professionals in the MICE sector must be prepared to deal with such complex phenomena of crisis that might happen in the future. While a number of researches have examined the complexity of crises in the tourism context, there has been little focus on such issues in the MICE sector. As chaos theory provides a particularly good model for crisis situations, it is the aim of this paper to propose a chaos theory-based approach to the understanding of complex and chaotic system of the MICE sector in time of crisis.

A válság hatása a vállalatok marketingtevékenységére = The Impact of Financial Crisis on Marketing Activities of Hungarian Companies

A tanulmányban azt elemeztük, hogy a vizsgált vállalatok a válságra milyen marketingválaszokat gondoltak megfelelőnek. Ennek megválaszolásához a „Versenyben a világgal” kutatási program 2009-ben készült felmérésének 300 vállalatra kiterjedő mintáját elemeztük, amelyet szakértői interjúkkal egészítettünk ki. A tanulmány alapozó részében elemeztük a nemzetközi trendeket és megoldásokat. A marketingben a válaszok helyessége ugyanis annak alapján ítélhető meg, hogy milyen mértékben képes a vállalat a fogyasztók dinamikusan alakuló igényeit formálni vagy azoknak megfelelni oly módon, hogy figyelembe veszi a környezet sajátosságait. A vizsgált vállalatok válságkezelő stratégiája ad-hoc jellegűnek mondható, nem illeszkedik az addigi stratégiai irányokhoz vagy az addig folytatott marketingstratégiához. A legnépszerűbb válságkezelő marketingeszközök az új piacok keresése, az akciózás és a költségcsökkentés. Közepesen népszerű a más média használata, a termékinnováció, az árcsökkentés, valamint a reklámkiadások csökkentése. A legkevésbé kedvelt eszközök pedig a marketingtevékenység kiszervezése, a termékválaszték vagy a termékminőség csökkentése. A választott eszközök típusai alapján három stratégiai irány határozható meg, az alternatív utak keresése, az ármérséklés, valamint a beszűkülés. A megkérdezett vállalatok 39,9%-a beszűkülő stratégiát, 30,4%-a az alternatív és ármérséklő stratégiák kombinációját, míg 29,7% egyik stratégiát sem preferálja. A választás azonban a legtöbb esetben inkább ad-hoc jellegűnek, mint tudatosan átgondolt stratégiának tűnik, mivel a választott irány nem függ a vállalat addigi marketingtevékenységétől vagy az addig hangsúlyosnak vélt jellemzőktől és versenyelőnyöktől. ________ In this study the marketing responses of the companies were analyzed, which were involved in the Competitiveness Research Program survey carried out during 2009 among 300 companies, combined with expert interviews. A literature review proceeded the empirical part. The capability of dynamic adaptation to consumer needs defines the right strategy in marketing. In our analysis we mainly found ad-hoc adaptation to handling the crisis that has little connection to firms’ previous strategic directions or their marketing strategy. The most popular crisis management tools include the search for new markets, promotions, and cost reductions. New media, product innovation, price reductions and lower advertising is less followed by companies. The least frequent reactions include outsourcing and reducing product quality. Based on the above three directions emerge. 39,9 % of the companies contract, 30,4 % use a combination of price reduction and alternative strategies and the remaining subset has formulated no strategy. The strategic directions show little correlation to previous practices or to the core competitive advantages.

Managing crisis

The traditional approach to crisis management suggest autocratic leadership, that has risks anyway (leader is the bottle-neck of problem solving, single-loop learning, crisis management is a matter of efficiency). However, managing nowadays crisis is rather effectiveness issue, and requires double-loop learning (second-order change) and leadership role in the sense of Kotter’s theory. Paper discusses the top-management’s leadership responsibilities, and their special tasks in the problem solving process of change. Inappropriate perception of leadership responsibilities and insisting upon first-order change strategy results in becoming part of the problem, rather that part of the solution of the problem.

An epistemic event -based correlation scheme for pervasive network management

Computer networks produce tremendous amounts of event-based data that can be collected and managed to support an increasing number of new classes of pervasive applications. Examples of such applications are network monitoring and crisis management. Although the problem of distributed event-based management has been addressed in the non-pervasive settings such as the Internet, the domain of pervasive networks has its own characteristics that make these results non-applicable. Many of these applications are based on time-series data that possess the form of time-ordered series of events. Such applications also embody the need to handle large volumes of unexpected events, often modified on-the-fly, containing conflicting information, and dealing with rapidly changing contexts while producing results with low-latency. Correlating events across contextual dimensions holds the key to expanding the capabilities and improving the performance of these applications. This dissertation addresses this critical challenge. It establishes an effective scheme for complex-event semantic correlation. The scheme examines epistemic uncertainty in computer networks by fusing event synchronization concepts with belief theory. Because of the distributed nature of the event detection, time-delays are considered. Events are no longer instantaneous, but duration is associated with them. Existing algorithms for synchronizing time are split into two classes, one of which is asserted to provide a faster means for converging time and hence better suited for pervasive network management. Besides the temporal dimension, the scheme considers imprecision and uncertainty when an event is detected. A belief value is therefore associated with the semantics and the detection of composite events. This belief value is generated by a consensus among participating entities in a computer network. The scheme taps into in-network processing capabilities of pervasive computer networks and can withstand missing or conflicting information gathered from multiple participating entities. Thus, this dissertation advances knowledge in the field of network management by facilitating the full utilization of characteristics offered by pervasive, distributed and wireless technologies in contemporary and future computer networks.

An Epistemic Event-based Correlation Scheme for Pervasive Network Management

Computer networks produce tremendous amounts of event-based data that can be collected and managed to support an increasing number of new classes of pervasive applications. Examples of such applications are network monitoring and crisis management. Although the problem of distributed event-based management has been addressed in the non-pervasive settings such as the Internet, the domain of pervasive networks has its own characteristics that make these results non-applicable. Many of these applications are based on time-series data that possess the form of time-ordered series of events. Such applications also embody the need to handle large volumes of unexpected events, often modified on-the-fly, containing conflicting information, and dealing with rapidly changing contexts while producing results with low-latency. Correlating events across contextual dimensions holds the key to expanding the capabilities and improving the performance of these applications. This dissertation addresses this critical challenge. It establishes an effective scheme for complex-event semantic correlation. The scheme examines epistemic uncertainty in computer networks by fusing event synchronization concepts with belief theory. Because of the distributed nature of the event detection, time-delays are considered. Events are no longer instantaneous, but duration is associated with them. Existing algorithms for synchronizing time are split into two classes, one of which is asserted to provide a faster means for converging time and hence better suited for pervasive network management. Besides the temporal dimension, the scheme considers imprecision and uncertainty when an event is detected. A belief value is therefore associated with the semantics and the detection of composite events. This belief value is generated by a consensus among participating entities in a computer network. The scheme taps into in-network processing capabilities of pervasive computer networks and can withstand missing or conflicting information gathered from multiple participating entities. Thus, this dissertation advances knowledge in the field of network management by facilitating the full utilization of characteristics offered by pervasive, distributed and wireless technologies in contemporary and future computer networks.

Crisis communication in politics: forgiveness as image restoration tool

Crisis communication is a widely treated field. There are lot of works and guides which provide helpful information in order to face crisis situations successfully (Alcat, 2005, Benoit, 1997) and articles about case studies (Nespereira, 2014, Blaney y Benoit 2001). Nonetheless, most of times, these guides are focused on business or corporations (Abeler, 2010) and there are not such information about crisis communications in politics (Gaspar e Ibeas, 2015). The field is smaller if we speak about forgiveness as restoration image tool in politics (Harris 2006). Despite all, we live in “forgiveness era” as Krauze said (1998) where people demand to politicians to apologize when they have mistakes (Harris et al. 2006:716). So, we will try to make an approach to forgiveness in politics as a image restoration tool and analyze its capabilities in order to face crisis management.

Cómo gestionar las crisis mediáticas y su repercusión en la reputación

[ES] A lo largo de la historia, las empresas se han visto sometidas a numerosas crisis mediáticas que han afectado directamente a su reputación. En el presente trabajo, analizaremos la repercusión de la comunicación en la gestión de una crisis, cómo mediante un uso eficaz de la comunicación en la gestión de una crisis, se podrá reducir el posible daño potencial que esta pueda ocasionar en la reputación de una empresa, evitando así una influencia negativa en los resultados empresariales. Para ello ilustraremos el marco teórico del trabajo con dos casos prácticos. Una vez analizados ambos casos, llegamos a la conclusión de que la reputación es un activo estratégico que genera valor a las empresas. Dicha reputación se verá comprometida ante un escenario de crisis, pero mediante la implementación de un eficaz plan de gestión de crisis y una adecuada administración de los conflictos potenciales podremos reducir los daños que una crisis pueda producir en nuestra empresa. Destacar también como será conveniente gozar en todo momento de una buena reputación, para en caso de que se produzca una crisis mediática usar este activo intangible como fortaleza.

Understanding the use of social media by organisations for crisis communication

Many businesses have commenced using social media for crisis communication with stakeholders. However there is little guidance in literature to assist organisational crisis managers with the selection of an appropriate crisis response strategy. Traditional theories on crisis communication may not adequately represent the social media context. This study took a qualitative approach and explored organisational use of social media for crisis communication at seventeen large Australian organisations. An analysis of 15,650 Facebook and Twitter messages was conducted, drawing on the lens of Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) (Coombs & Holladay, 2002). Findings suggested that when large Australian organisations responded to crises via social media, they lacked an awareness of the potential of social media for crisis communication. Organisations often did not respond to stakeholder messages or selected crisis response strategies that may increase reputational risk. The paper contributes important understandings of organisational social media use for crisis communication. It also assists crisis managers by providing six crisis response positions and a taxonomy of social media crisis messages that stakeholders may send to organisations. Key implications are discussed.

Post-crisis: rebuilding a company, a reputation, a community

It is well recognised that when an organisation experiences a crisis caused by a natural disaster,publics are less likely to apportion responsibility to that organisation. This contrasts with crisesinvolving events such as product tampering, accidents or management transgressions where thelevel of organisational control is perceived or judged to be greater (Coombs, 2000, p. 86). In 2012,biomedical company Gambro’s manufacturing plant, based in Medolla, a small town of 6000 in theModena region of Italy, was hit by a devastating series of earthquakes. Damage to the plant hadsignificant and immediate impact for employees, customers and other key stakeholders, as operationsceased in the wake of the earthquakes.This chapter will reflect on Gambro’s crisis management response and their crisis communicationstrategies in response to the earthquakes and the ensuing rumours. An analysis ofGambro’s crisis response shows they acted to counteract stakeholder concerns and leveragewell-established stakeholder relationships. As Coombs (2000, 2006, 2007a, 2007b) makes clear,relationships are central to effective crisis management, and, although stakeholders often view anatural disaster as being removed from the organisation’s responsibility, this concession may not exist in a prolonged recovery period or where the stakeholders face a life or death outcome. Thesewere the very conditions Gambro faced. So, a relational approach can add depth to the attributionalanalysis of such a crisis (Coombs 2000, p. 86). To extend the analysis of crises caused bynatural disaster and Gambro’s crisis response, the chapter will also examine crisis communicationstrategies of similar disaster case studies.The international medical-technical company Gambro, headquartered in Sweden, has 13 productionfacilities in more than 90 countries, and employs more than 8000 people worldwide. Gambrohas operated in the Medolla region of Emilia-Romagna since the early 1960s.