The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

A call for greater cooperation and dialogue between Latin America and the Caribbean

.--A call for greater cooperation and dialogue between Latin America and the Caribbean.--Latin America and the Caribbean urged to pursue avenues for integration.--ECLAC: Caribbean countries will be negatively affected by Climate Change.--Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean Seek a Regional Consensus on Sustainable Development.--UN-CARICOM Meeting Identifies Regional Priorities.--Latin America and the Caribbean region continues on growth path.--Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean will increase by 27% in 2011

Study on the vulnerability and resilience of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Caribbean Small Island Developing States are considered to be particularly vulnerable to external shocks that stem from changes in climate and the increase in frequency and magnitude of natural disasters. Quantification of the extent of vulnerability of these islands may be measured by the use of several indices including the Economic Vulnerability Index (EcVI), the Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The capacity to build resilience may be measured by the Economic Resilience Index (ERI). Of importance in the measurement of vulnerability and resilience is the impact on women and children. In order to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience, Caribbean SIDS are urged to develop adaptation strategies. Such strategies include the conduct of indepth studies on natural environmental impacts specifically in terms of biophysical and socio economic impacts. It is also necessary to review best practices in terms of preparedness, resilience building and climate change adaptation in other countries such as Cuba. Addressing vulnerability and building resilience requires appropriate information and data and priority should be given to addressing data gaps. It would also be expedient to classify vulnerability and resilience as regional public goods wherein one country’s benefit does not compromise another country’s ability to benefit. Finally, it is important to acknowledge that vulnerability is, in part, is a function of gender so that indicators need to be disaggregated to reflect the country-specific gendered socioeconomic situation.

The economics of climate change in the Caribbean

The present volume captures the results of the studies conducted during Phase 2 of the RECCC project to date. Chapter 1 provides the contextual framework within which the assessments were conducted and Chapter 2 focuses on the emissions scenarios as set out by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the economic assessments of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural, coastal and marine, energy and transportation, health, freshwater resources and tourism sectors in the Caribbean subregion are presented in Chapters 3 to 9, respectively. The report concludes with an examination of adaptation strategies and key policy recommendations for policymakers, in Chapter 10.

Regional implementation meeting on access rights and sustainable development in the Caribbean. Workshop on enhancing access to information on climate change, natural disasters and coastal vulnerability: leaving no one behind

This document summarizes the regional implementation meeting on access rights and sustainable development in the Caribbean and the workshop on enhancing access to information on climate change, natural disasters and coastal vulnerability: leaving no one behind held in Rodney’s Bay, Saint Lucia, from 24 to 26 August 2015.

The Caribbean and the post-2015 development agenda

This paper will contend that the post-2015 development agenda presents a major opportunity for Caribbean countries to reverse decades of lagging economic performance and make the transition to balanced, holistic, and people-centred growth and development. The MDGs, while valuable in promoting gains in poverty reduction, health, education, nutrition, and maternal well-being were not tailored to the growth and development needs of the region. This can now be changed by a post-2015 development agenda which goes beyond improving the welfare of citizens by meeting basic needs and enhancing access to primary services. The necessary scaling-up of the MDG framework will require that the sustainable development goals, which will anchor the post- 2015 development agenda, are capable of promoting structural change, competitiveness and output gains while advancing social development and meeting environmental concerns. They must also address the unfinished business of the millennium development goals, primarily in the area of human development.

Desafíos de la seguridad hídrica en América Latina y el Caribe

El estudio procede a identificar los desafíos que debe enfrentar la gestión del agua en la región para alcanzar una adecuada seguridad hídrica. Dichos desafíos se relacionan con los acelerados cambios sociales, económicos y políticos que experimentan las sociedades de América Latina y el Caribe.

Agenda 2030 y los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible: una oportunidad para América Latina y el Caribe

La Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, aprobada en septiembre de 2015 por la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas, establece una visión transformadora hacia la sostenibilidad económica, social y ambiental de los 193 Estados Miembros que la suscribieron y será la guía de referencia para el trabajo de la institución en pos de esta visión durante los próximos 15 años. Esta nueva hoja de ruta presenta una oportunidad histórica para América Latina y el Caribe, ya que incluye temas altamente prioritarios para la región, como la reducción de la desigualdad en todas sus dimensiones, un crecimiento económico inclusivo con trabajo decente para todos, ciudades sostenibles y cambio climático, entre otros. El conocimiento de los 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) asociados a esta Agenda ayuda a evaluar el punto de partida de los países de la región y a analizar y formular los medios para alcanzar esta nueva visión del desarrollo sostenible, que se expresó de manera colectiva y quedó plasmada en la Agenda 2030. Los ODS también son una herramienta de planificación para los países, tanto a nivel nacional como local. Gracias a su visión a largo plazo, constituirán un apoyo para cada país en su senda hacia un desarrollo sostenido, inclusivo y en armonía con el medio ambiente, a través de políticas públicas e instrumentos de presupuesto, monitoreo y evaluación. La Agenda 2030 es una agenda civilizatoria, que pone la dignidad y la igualdad de las personas en el centro. Al ser ambiciosa y visionaria, requiere de la participación de todos los sectores de la sociedad y del Estado para su implementación. Por lo tanto, se invita a los representantes de los Gobiernos, la sociedad civil, el ámbito académico y el sector privado a apropiarse de esta ambiciosa agenda, a debatirla y a utilizarla como una herramienta para la creación de sociedades inclusivas y justas, al servicio de las personas de hoy y de futuras generaciones.

The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: An opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations at the General Assembly in September 2015, outlines a transformative vision for economic, social and environmental development and will guide the work of the Organization towards this vision for the next 15 years. This new road map presents a historic opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean, since it addresses some of the region’s most urgent priorities, such as reducing inequality in all its dimensions, promoting inclusive economic growth with decent work for all, creating sustainable cities and addressing climate change. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with the Agenda help the region’s countries to gauge the starting point from which they set out towards this new, collective vision of sustainable development set forth in the 2030 Agenda and to analyse and craft the means of its implementation. The SDGs also represent a planning tool for the countries at the national and local levels. With their long-term approach, they offer support for each country on its path towards sustained, inclusive and environmentally friendly development, through the formulation of public policies and budget, monitoring and evaluation instruments. The 2030 Agenda is a civilizing agenda that places dignity and equality at the centre. At once far-sighted and ambitious, its implementation will require the engagement of all sectors of society and of the State. Accordingly, the representatives of governments, civil society, academic institutions and the private sector are invited to take ownership of this ambitious agenda, to discuss and embrace it as a tool for the creation of inclusive, fair societies that serve the citizens of today as well as future generations.

A revision of species diversity in the Neotropical genus Oreobates (Anura: Strabomantidae), with the description of three new species from the Amazonian slopes of the Andes

We revisit species diversity within Oreobates (Anura: Strabomantidae) by combining molecular phylogenetic analyses of the 16S rRNA amphibian barcode fragment with the study of the external morphology of living and preserved specimens. Molecular and morphological evidence support the existence of 23 species within Oreobates, and three additional candidate species (Oreobates sp. [Ca JF809995], Oreobates sp. [Ca EU368903], Oreobates cruralis [Ca EU192295]). We describe and name three new species from the Andean humid montane forests of Departamento Cusco, southern Peru: O. amarakaeri New Species from Rio Nusinuscato and Rio Mabe, at elevations ranging from 670 to 1000 m in the Andean foothills; O. machiguenga, new species, from Rio Kimbiri (1350 m), a small tributary of the Apurimac River, in the western versant of Cordillera Vilcabamba; and O. gemcare, new species, from the Kosnipata Valley at elevations ranging from 2400 to 2800 m. The three new species are readily distinguished from all other Oreobates by at least one qualitative morphological character. Three species are transferred to Oreobates from three genera of Strabomantidae: Hypodactylus lundbergi, Pristimantis crepitans, and Phrynopus ayacucho (for which the advertisement call, coloration in life, and male characteristics are described for first time). Oreobates simmonsi is transferred to the genus Lynchius. Hylodes verrucosus is considered a junior synonym of Hylodes philippi. In addition, H. philippi is removed from the synonymy of O. quixensis and considered a nomem dubium within Hypodactylus. The inclusion of Phrynopus ayacucho in Oreobates extends the ecological range of the genus to the cold Andean puna. Oreobates is thus distributed from the Amazonian lowlands in southern Colombia to northern Argentina, reaching the Brazilian Atlantic dry forests in eastern Brazil, across an altitudinal range from ca. 100 to 3850 m.

Cuantificación de la captura de CO2 por la flora nativa de totora en un humedal costero de Perú

Resumen: Se cuantifica la captura de CO2 por la flora nativa de totora (Schoenoplectus californicus) en los humedales de Villa María, sobre la costa del Pacífico en Perú. Se delimitó el área representativa ocupada por esta especie para evitar zonas heterogéneas y se cuadriculó la zona trazando líneas que atraviesen toda el área, donde se realizaron muestreos aleatorios de 1 m2 de la parte aérea y de la raíz de la biomasa. El contenido de carbono en la estructura vegetal se determinó por método de “Walkley y Black” y la captura de dióxido de carbono se estimó mediante el “factor de conversión de carbono a dióxido de carbono”. Se obtuvo un valor de contenido de dióxido de carbono capturado por totora (partes aérea +raíz) de 84.05 tCO2/ha comprobándose que, entre otros importantes servicios al medio ambiente y al Ser Humano, estos humedales actúan de modo crucial en la captación de CO2 atmosférico ante el presente escenario de cambio climático planetario.