How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

The importance of ecological scale for wildlife conservation in naturally fragmented environments: A case study of the Brush-Tailed Rock-Wallaby (Petrogale Penicillata)

Determining the ecologically relevant spatial scales for predicting species occurrences is an important concept when determining species–environment relationships. Therefore species distribution modelling should consider all ecologically relevant spatial scales. While several recent studies have addressed this problem in artificially fragmented landscapes, few studies have researched relevant ecological scales for organisms that also live in naturally fragmented landscapes. This situation is exemplified by the Australian rock-wallabies’ preference for rugged terrain and we addressed the issue of scale using the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) in eastern Australia. We surveyed for brush-tailed rock-wallabies at 200 sites in southeast Queensland, collecting potentially influential site level and landscape level variables. We applied classification trees at either scale to capture a hierarchy of relationships between the explanatory variables and brush-tailed rock-wallaby presence/absence. Habitat complexity at the site level and geology at the landscape level were the best predictors of where we observed brush-tailed rock-wallabies. Our study showed that the distribution of the species is affected by both site scale and landscape scale factors, reinforcing the need for a multi-scale approach to understanding the relationship between a species and its environment. We demonstrate that careful design of data collection, using coarse scale spatial datasets and finer scale field data, can provide useful information for identifying the ecologically relevant scales for studying species–environment relationships. Our study highlights the need to determine patterns of environmental influence at multiple scales to conserve specialist species such as the brush-tailed rock-wallaby in naturally fragmented landscapes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

'Black is beautiful', and Indigenous : Aboriginal authorship in Australian popular music

The ‘black is beautiful’ movement began in the United States in the early sixties, and changed mainstream attitudes towards the body, fashion and personal aesthetics, gaining African American people a new sense of pride in being – and being called – ‘black’. In Australia the movement also had implications for changing the political meanings of ‘black’ in white society. However, it is not until the last decade, through the global influence of Afro-American music, that a distinctly Indigenous sense of black sexiness has captured the attention of mainstream audiences. The article examines such recent developments, and suggests that, through the appropriation of Afro-American aesthetics and styles, Indigenous producers and performers have developed new forms of Indigenous public agency, demonstrating that black is beautiful, and Indigenous.

Cherbourg time : young black and deadly art 2003-2007

Art is most often at the margins of community life, seen as a distraction or entertainment only; an individual’s whim. It is generally seen as without a useful role to play in that community. This is a perception of grown-ups; children seem readily to accept an engagement with art making. Our research has shown that when an individual is drawn into a crafted art project where they have an actual involvement with the direction and production of the art work, then they become deeply engaged on multiple levels. This is true of all age groups. Artists skilled in community collaboration are able to produce art of value that transcends the usual judgements of worth. It gives people a licence to unfetter their imagination and then cooperatively be drawn back to a reachable visual solution. If you engage with children in a community, you engage the extended family at some point. The primary methodology was to produce a series of educationally valid projects at the Cherbourg State School that had a resonance into that community, then revisit and refine them where necessary and develop a new series that extended all of the positive aspects of them. This was done over a period of five years. The art made during this time is excellent. The children know it, as do their families, staff at the school, members of the local community and the others who have viewed it in exhibitions in far places like Brisbane and Melbourne. This art and the way it has been made has been acknowledged as useful by the children, teachers and the community, in educational and social terms. The school is a better place to be. This has been acknowledged by the children, teachers and the community The art making of the last five years has become an integral part of the way the school now operates and the influence of that has begun to seep into other parts of the community. Art needs to be taken from the margins and put to work at the centre.

A dog of a QCAT : collateral effects of mandated English assessment in the Torres Strait

This paper critiques a 2008 Queensland Studies Authority (QSA) assessment initiative known as Queensland Comparable Assessment Tasks, or QCATs. The rhetoric is that these centrally devised assessment tasks will provide information about how well students can apply what they know, understand and can do in different contexts (QSA, 2009). The QCATs are described as ‘authentic, performance-based assessment’ that involves a ‘meaningful problem’, ‘emphasises critical thinking and reasoning’ and ‘provides students with every opportunity to do their best work’ (QSA, 2009). From my viewpoint as a teacher, I detail my professional concerns with implementing the 2008 middle primary English QCAT in one case study Torres Strait Island community. Specifically I ask ‘QCATs: Comparable with what?’ and ‘QCATs: Whose authentic assessment?’. I predict the possible collateral effects of implementing this English assessment in this remote Indigenous community, concluding, rather than being an example of quality assessment, colloquially speaking, it is nothing more than a ‘dog’.

Investigating international accounting standard setting : the black box of IFRS 6

This paper examines the role of powerful entities and coalitions in shaping international accounting standards. Specifically, the focus is on the process by which the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) developed IFRS 6, Exploration for and Evaluation of Mineral Resources. In its Issues Paper, the IASB recommended that the successful efforts method be mandated for pre-production costs, eliminating the choice previously available between full cost and successful efforts methods. In spite of the endorsement of this view by a majority of the constituents who responded to the Issues Paper, the final outcome changed nothing, with choice being retained. A compelling explanation of this disparity between the visible inputs and outputs of the standard setting process is the existence of a “black box”, in which powerful extractive industries entities and coalitions covertly influenced the IASB to secure their own ends and ensure that the status quo was maintained

Left vs right in black and white : a review

LIKE much of the work that David Williamson is known for, Let the Sunshine concentrates on tensions between characters who operate mainly as mouthpieces for opposing ideologies. Left-wing documentary-maker Toby and his wife Ros have moved to Noosa to escape the rat race in Sydney and some bad press surrounding one of Toby's projects. Trying to make social connections in town, Ros has reconnected with high school classmate Natasha, now the cosmetically-enhanced wife of wealthy right-wing property developer Ron. The posturing and conflict between Toby and Ron come to a head when the women invite their grown children -- struggling songwriter Rick and stressed corporate lawyer Emma -- to dinner to celebrate Toby's birthday, and the results of this encounter drive the rest of the plot. The scenario of Let the Sunshine is contrived, the characters are stereotyped, and their conflicts are little more than an old clash of ideologies cast loosely across the mainstream news media's characterisation of the sides in debates about development, climate change and the economic crisis.

It really is black and white when you look at it like this : reporting on a study into Australian professors' research and teaching priorities

Despite optimistic claims about the research-teaching nexus, Australian academics still face tension between research and teaching. The teaching and research priorities, beliefs and behaviours of 70 Professorial and Associate Professorial academics in Science, Information Technology and Engineering were examined in this study. The academics from 4 faculties in 3 Australian universities, were asked to rank 16 research activities and 16 matched learning and teaching (L&T) activities from each of three perspectives: job satisfaction, leadership behaviour, and perceptions of professional importance. The findings, which were remarkably consistent across the three universities, were unequivocally in favour of Research. The only L&T activity that was ranked consistently well was “Improving student satisfaction ratings for Teaching”. The data demonstrates that Australian government and university initiatives to raise the status of L&T activity are not impacting significantly on Australia’s future leaders of university learning.

'The black hole of our history' : a conversation with Louis Nowra

This is an edited version of an interview recorded for Canadian Theatre Review in 1992. By that time Nowra had established a reputation as one of Australia's foremost playwrights. Part of the generation which succeeded the New Wave of the late 1960s and early 1970s, Nowra became known for a stylistic inventiveness which placed him outside the tradition of realist playwriting in Australia. The international outlook in his early plays, and the fact that he was not exclusively preoccupied with Australian settings and subject matter, was often a focal point in critical accounts of his work. In this interview Nowra discusses his 'internationalism', and a range of topics including the playwriting process; the presence of landscape in his plays; and the autobiographical elements in his work.

Black v Garnock : implications for Queensland conveyancing practice

What was previously established as a fundamental principle, that a judgment creditor may take no interest beyond what the judgment debtor could give, has now been called into question by the decision of the High Court in Black v Garnock [2007] HCA 31. This article examines the implications of the decision of the High Court for conveyancing practice in Queensland. The relevant facts of Black v Garnock [2007] HCA 31 may be briefly stated: The Garnocks and the Luffs, as purchasers, entered a contract to purchase a rural property from Mrs Smith with settlement due on 24 August 2005. On 23 August 2005, a creditor obtained a writ against Mrs Smith from the District Court of New South Wales. No caveat was lodged on behalf of the purchasers prior to settlement (there being no equivalent, in New South Wales, of the Queensland settlement notice mechanism).