Commentary on "A Tale of Two States"

While both California and Texas have experienced declines in teen birth rates over the past three decades, declines in California have been larger, particularly among Hispanic teens. Differences in state policies may have shaped this disparity, as suggested by Tortolero and her colleagues in their article “A Tale of Two States: What We Learn from California and Texas”. Fundamental differences exist between Texas and California in their approaches to sex education, access to family planning services for teens, and public-private partnerships. However, methodological challenges are present when drawing state comparisons, including the limitations of available public health data and the difficulty of disaggregating state characteristics from state policies. Based on their comparison of state data and policies, Tortolero and her colleagues issue sensible recommendations for reducing the teen birth rate in Texas. History suggests that state policies are most effective when political commitment is linked to scientifically effective approaches. Based on our understanding of the scientific literature, the most effective strategies for reducing rates of teen childbearing in Texas would be providing comprehensive school sexuality education and improving teen access to contraceptive services.

A Tale of Two States: What We Learn from California and Texas

Teen birth rates and teen pregnancy prevention strategies vary widely across individual states in the US, which has the highest overall teen birth rate among developed nations. California and Texas, the two most populous states currently accounting for a quarter of all teen births, have taken very different approaches to addressing adolescent reproductive health. This case study examines the racial/ethnic composition and socioeconomic factors of these two states from 1981 to 2008. State programs and policies implemented between 1991 and 2008 as well as changes in access to contraception and public–private partnerships are discussed. Based on the lessons learned from California, a similar multifaceted campaign in Texas may be effective in reducing teen births.

Social cognitive theory and factors associated with Mexican-American parents' beliefs, attitudes and practices regarding communication with their adolescent children about sex

Latinos have the highest teen birth rate nationally. Cameron County, Texas is primarily Latino (Mexican-American). This mixed-method study (n=43) examines Mexican-American parents of adolescents' beliefs, attitudes and practices regarding communication with their adolescent children about sex. Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs self-efficacy, behavioral determinism, environment, outcome expectations and reciprocal determinism can be influences on frequency and quality of parent-adolescent sex communication.^ This study describes Mexican-American parents' of adolescents recollections of their own experiences associated with learning about sexuality. It also examines the attitudes and practices regarding communication about sex and the self-efficacy and behavioral capability of participants to teach their adolescent children about sex and sexually transmitted infections. ^ Negative childhood experiences (shame, lies and trauma) of the parents in this study played a key role in terms of their desire to communicate more comprehensively about sexuality with their own children than did their parents. While participants' reported low self-efficacy and behavioral capability to communicate with their adolescent children about sex, they reported relatively high frequency and quality of communication, with 75% of participants receiving a high quality score and over 44% reporting frequent communication with their adolescent children about sex. A Chi square analysis and Fisher's Exact Score revealed no association between acculturation status, gender or having a child who has mothered/fathered a baby and the frequency or quality of communication about sex with adolescent children. Study participants also gave specific recommendations for method, content and setting of sex education for their children and themselves. Promotora delivery of information and education in a comfortable, culturally appropriate neighborhood setting, as well as parent –child learning sessions were identified as possible approaches to address improve self-efficacy and behavioral capability of parents communicating with their adolescent children about sex.^ The results of this analysis provide public health practitioners and interested community entities data to identify and develop interventions that use a theoretical, evidence-based framework for culturally appropriate interventions to encourage and equip Mexican-American parents to effectively communicate with their adolescent children about sexuality, and ultimately to address the high rates of teen pregnancy in this U.S.-Mexico border community. ^

Population synthesis of isolated neutron stars with magneto-rotational evolution

We revisit the population synthesis of isolated radio-pulsars incorporating recent advances on the evolution of the magnetic field and the angle between the magnetic and rotational axes from new simulations of the magneto-thermal evolution and magnetosphere models, respectively. An interesting novelty in our approach is that we do not assume the existence of a death line. We discuss regions in parameter space that are more consistent with the observational data. In particular, we find that any broad distribution of birth spin periods with P0 ≲ 0.5 s can fit the data, and that if the alignment angle is allowed to vary consistently with the torque model, realistic magnetospheric models are favoured compared to models with classical magneto-dipolar radiation losses. Assuming that the initial magnetic field is given by a lognormal distribution, our optimal model has mean strength 〈log B0[G]〉 ≈ 13.0–13.2 with width σ(log B0) = 0.6–0.7. However, there are strong correlations between parameters. This degeneracy in the parameter space can be broken by an independent estimate of the pulsar birth rate or by future studies correlating this information with the population in other observational bands (X-rays and γ-rays).

Saúde e outros : natalidade e fertilidade nos estudantes universitários

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Aging and the governance of the healthcare system in Japan. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/14, December 2014

Japan is the most rapidly aging country in the world. This is evidence that the social security system, which consists of the pension system, healthcare system and other programmes, has been working well. The population is shrinking because of a falling birth rate. It is expected that the population will fall from 128 million in 2010 to 87 million in 2060. During this period, the ratio of people aged 65 or over will rise from 23 percent to 39.9 percent. Japan’s age dependency ratio was 62 in 2013, the highest among advanced nations. It is expected to rise sharply to 94 in 2050 (see Figure 1 on page 4). A total reform of the Japanese social security system, therefore, is inevitable. From the point of view of fiscal reconstruction, reform of the healthcare system is the most important issue. The biggest problem in the healthcare system is that both the funding system and the care-delivery system are extremely fragmented. The government is planning its reform of the healthcare system based on the principle of integration. Other advanced economies could learn from the Japanese experience.

Su gli analfabeti e le nascite. Saggio secondo.

"Un seguito o un'appendice del mio studio precedenti, intitolato: Gli analfabeti e le nascite nelle varie parti d'Italia": Avvertenza.

Gli analfabeti e le nascite nelle varie parti d'Italia.

Mode of access: Internet.

Monthly vital statistics report : provisional statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Mode of access: Internet.

Mankind in the making,

"These papers were first published in the Fortnightly review and in the American Cosmopolitan." --Pref.

Watch that space! The county hierarchy in firm births and deaths in the UK, 1980-1999

The paper investigates the relationships between registrations, de-registrations and population density at county level in the UK using VAT data for 20 years over the period 1980–1999. The rationale for this is based on the need to understand how the extent to which, in different parts of the UK, differences in the relationship between birth rates and death rates combine to produce an interpretable pattern in net birth rates. The analysis of the net birth rate shows that a strategy aimed at the net birth rate might, in principle, just as well aim at reducing business failure, rather than raising the birth rate. Indeed this might be more efficient, since it implies that less start-ups are ‘‘wasted’’ as it would avoid the necessity, if targets are to be reached, of encouraging those individuals who are patently unsuited to running their own business into business ownership.

Health in Ireland: Key Trends 2015

Health in Ireland Key Trends gives us insights into trends in demographics, population health, hospital and primary care and health service employment and expenditure. The presentation of trend data over the last decade in the 2015 report highlights the many significant achievements that Ireland has made in terms of key outcomes relating to the health and wellbeing of the population. However, it also highlights the challenges that persist in terms of the accessibility of timely healthcare and in the context of financial constraints. In the last decade alone, there has been an increase of two and a half years in life expectancy. These gains are driven largely by reductions in mortality rates from principal causes of deaths such as those from heart disease and cancer. Another striking feature is the growth in the number of people aged over 65. Each year this cohort increases by 20,000 people. This trend is set to continue into the future and will have implications for future planning and health service delivery. Ireland will see the largest proportional increases in the population aged 85 years and older. Ageing of the population in conjunction with lifestyle-related health threats continue to present major challenges now and into the future in sustaining and further improving health and health services in Ireland. Although difficult to quantify, the contribution of modern health services to these improvements in health outcomes and in life expectancy have been significant. Ireland’s fertility rates are still among the highest in Europe but the birth rate has fallen to its lowest rate for the last decade.  However, Ireland currently has the highest proportion of children and young people in our population among EU countries.  

Abortion in the United States: Occurrence, trends, cross-state care-seeking and unmet need

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Estrutura e dinâmica de populações de Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris (Linnaeus, 1766) (Rodentia) em duas áreas urbanas no norte do Paraná, Brasil

This study aimed to evaluate the population ecology of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris (Linnaeus, 1766) in two urban areas in the north of Paraná, an open and other protected by assessing the effects of these two different types of environments on the structure and dynamics of the population and its implications for conservation of the species. The monitoring of the populations were performed monthly between June 2014 and March 2015 in Jaboti Lake Park (Apucarana / PR) and Conservation Unit Parque Arthur Thomas (Londrina / PR). To conduct the survey population data was used the methodology of total census (direct counting of individuals).They were evaluated ecological parameters of the populations of capybaras, such as ecological density, abundance, age distribution and birth rate, as well as performed the analysis of the landscape. It was applied to analysis of variance (ANOVA) to test the differences between the averages of the abundance of each age group per year of observation, as well as the differences between the average ecological density over the years of observation. The standard relationship between the use of classes and land use in the landscape and the ecological parameters of the capybara populations was evaluated by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The trend of variation of average abundance over time to Thomas Arthur Park revealed abrupt decrease of the population in a short period of time (2014 16 ± 9, 14 ± 1 and 2015 7±1) as well as ecological density in 2015 (0.05 ind./ha). On the other hand, the Jaboti Lake Park, showed an increase in absolute abundance, with marked recovery of the population in the same period (2014 38±8,30 and 2015 45±1,73) and coming up with an ecological density in 2015 (2 ind ./ha). The birth rate found Lake Park Jaboti was superior to Arthur Thomas Park, which had a negative rate between 2012 and 2015. The use and land cover analysis showed significant differences from the point of view of the relative contribution of landscape elements in the spatial heterogeneity. Arthur Thomas Park shows areas of dense vegetation and urban areas relatively higher than those observed in Jaboti Lake Park that revealed relatively higher proportions of the areas of agriculture / field and exposed soil. Thus, the present study revealed that the local population structure is directly related to the spatial characteristics of both studied landscapes, as can be seen by the greater abundance and density seen in Jaboti Lake Park compared to Arthur Thomas Park in recent years of study.

Investigating disease persistence in host vector systems: dengue as a case study

The investigation of pathogen persistence in vector-borne diseases is important in different ecological and epidemiological contexts. In this thesis, I have developed deterministic and stochastic models to help investigating the pathogen persistence in host-vector systems by using efficient modelling paradigms. A general introduction with aims and objectives of the studies conducted in the thesis are provided in Chapter 1. The mathematical treatment of models used in the thesis is provided in Chapter 2 where the models are found locally asymptotically stable. The models used in the rest of the thesis are based on either the same or similar mathematical structure studied in this chapter. After that, there are three different experiments that are conducted in this thesis to study the pathogen persistence. In Chapter 3, I characterize pathogen persistence in terms of the Critical Community Size (CCS) and find its relationship with the model parameters. In this study, the stochastic versions of two epidemiologically different host-vector models are used for estimating CCS. I note that the model parameters and their algebraic combination, in addition to the seroprevalence level of the host population, can be used to quantify CCS. The study undertaken in Chapter 4 is used to estimate pathogen persistence using both deterministic and stochastic versions of a model with seasonal birth rate of the vectors. Through stochastic simulations we investigate the pattern of epidemics after the introduction of an infectious individual at different times of the year. The results show that the disease dynamics are altered by the seasonal variation. The higher levels of pre-existing seroprevalence reduces the probability of invasion of dengue. In Chapter 5, I considered two alternate ways to represent the dynamics of a host-vector model. Both of the approximate models are investigated for the parameter regions where the approximation fails to hold. Moreover, three metrics are used to compare them with the Full model. In addition to the computational benefits, these approximations are used to investigate to what degree the inclusion of the vector population in the dynamics of the system is important. Finally, in Chapter 6, I present the summary of studies undertaken and possible extensions for the future work.