Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Formal verification and testing of software architectural models

Ensuring the correctness of software has been the major motivation in software research, constituting a Grand Challenge. Due to its impact in the final implementation, one critical aspect of software is its architectural design. By guaranteeing a correct architectural design, major and costly flaws can be caught early on in the development cycle. Software architecture design has received a lot of attention in the past years, with several methods, techniques and tools developed. However, there is still more to be done, such as providing adequate formal analysis of software architectures. On these regards, a framework to ensure system dependability from design to implementation has been developed at FIU (Florida International University). This framework is based on SAM (Software Architecture Model), an ADL (Architecture Description Language), that allows hierarchical compositions of components and connectors, defines an architectural modeling language for the behavior of components and connectors, and provides a specification language for the behavioral properties. The behavioral model of a SAM model is expressed in the form of Petri nets and the properties in first order linear temporal logic.^ This dissertation presents a formal verification and testing approach to guarantee the correctness of Software Architectures. The Software Architectures studied are expressed in SAM. For the formal verification approach, the technique applied was model checking and the model checker of choice was Spin. As part of the approach, a SAM model is formally translated to a model in the input language of Spin and verified for its correctness with respect to temporal properties. In terms of testing, a testing approach for SAM architectures was defined which includes the evaluation of test cases based on Petri net testing theory to be used in the testing process at the design level. Additionally, the information at the design level is used to derive test cases for the implementation level. Finally, a modeling and analysis tool (SAM tool) was implemented to help support the design and analysis of SAM models. The results show the applicability of the approach to testing and verification of SAM models with the aid of the SAM tool.^

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Performance on WAIS-III relates to the Ability to Derive Relations

Experimental evidence suggests that derived relational responding (DRR) may provide a behavioral model of complex language phenomena. This study assigned 72 students to groups based upon their performance on a complex relational task. It was found that performance on DRR relates to scores on the WAIS-III.

Development of physics-based models and design optimization of power electronic conversion systems

The main objective for physics based modeling of the power converter components is to design the whole converter with respect to physical and operational constraints. Therefore, all the elements and components of the energy conversion system are modeled numerically and combined together to achieve the whole system behavioral model. Previously proposed high frequency (HF) models of power converters are based on circuit models that are only related to the parasitic inner parameters of the power devices and the connections between the components. This dissertation aims to obtain appropriate physics-based models for power conversion systems, which not only can represent the steady state behavior of the components, but also can predict their high frequency characteristics. The developed physics-based model would represent the physical device with a high level of accuracy in predicting its operating condition. The proposed physics-based model enables us to accurately develop components such as; effective EMI filters, switching algorithms and circuit topologies [7]. One of the applications of the developed modeling technique is design of new sets of topologies for high-frequency, high efficiency converters for variable speed drives. The main advantage of the modeling method, presented in this dissertation, is the practical design of an inverter for high power applications with the ability to overcome the blocking voltage limitations of available power semiconductor devices. Another advantage is selection of the best matching topology with inherent reduction of switching losses which can be utilized to improve the overall efficiency. The physics-based modeling approach, in this dissertation, makes it possible to design any power electronic conversion system to meet electromagnetic standards and design constraints. This includes physical characteristics such as; decreasing the size and weight of the package, optimized interactions with the neighboring components and higher power density. In addition, the electromagnetic behaviors and signatures can be evaluated including the study of conducted and radiated EMI interactions in addition to the design of attenuation measures and enclosures.

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Formal verification and testing of software architectural models

Ensuring the correctness of software has been the major motivation in software research, constituting a Grand Challenge. Due to its impact in the final implementation, one critical aspect of software is its architectural design. By guaranteeing a correct architectural design, major and costly flaws can be caught early on in the development cycle. Software architecture design has received a lot of attention in the past years, with several methods, techniques and tools developed. However, there is still more to be done, such as providing adequate formal analysis of software architectures. On these regards, a framework to ensure system dependability from design to implementation has been developed at FIU (Florida International University). This framework is based on SAM (Software Architecture Model), an ADL (Architecture Description Language), that allows hierarchical compositions of components and connectors, defines an architectural modeling language for the behavior of components and connectors, and provides a specification language for the behavioral properties. The behavioral model of a SAM model is expressed in the form of Petri nets and the properties in first order linear temporal logic. This dissertation presents a formal verification and testing approach to guarantee the correctness of Software Architectures. The Software Architectures studied are expressed in SAM. For the formal verification approach, the technique applied was model checking and the model checker of choice was Spin. As part of the approach, a SAM model is formally translated to a model in the input language of Spin and verified for its correctness with respect to temporal properties. In terms of testing, a testing approach for SAM architectures was defined which includes the evaluation of test cases based on Petri net testing theory to be used in the testing process at the design level. Additionally, the information at the design level is used to derive test cases for the implementation level. Finally, a modeling and analysis tool (SAM tool) was implemented to help support the design and analysis of SAM models. The results show the applicability of the approach to testing and verification of SAM models with the aid of the SAM tool.

Modelo comportamental do capacitor ferroelétrico como unidade básica de neurônios artificiais e sua implementação em FPGA

This work proposes the use of the behavioral model of the hysteresis loop of the ferroelectrics capacitor as a new alternative to the usually costly techniques in the computation of nonlinear functions in artificial neurons implemented on reconfigurable hardware platform, in this case, a FPGA device. Initially the proposal has been validated by the implementation of the boolean logic through the digital models of two artificial neurons: the Perceptron and a variation of the model Integrate and Fire Spiking Neuron, both using the model also digital of the hysteresis loop of the ferroelectric capacitor as it’s basic nonlinear unit for the calculations of the neurons outputs. Finally, it has been used the analog model of the ferroelectric capacitor with the goal of verifying it’s effectiveness and possibly the reduction of the number of necessary logic elements in the case of implementing the artificial neurons on integrated circuit. The implementations has been carried out by Simulink models and the synthesizing has been done through the DSP Builder software from Altera Corporation.

« Utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées : association avec la maladie chronique et l’incapacité »

Diverses publications soulignent l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie et avec elle, le vieillissement mondial de la population. Ce processus se poursuivra à l'avenir, ainsi que son influence sur l’incidence et la prévalence de l'incapacité. Chez les personnes âgées, l’incapacité, les maladies chroniques et leur association constituent un sujet important dans le domaine de la santé publique en raison de l'effet qu'ils ont sur la demande des services de santé. Le but de ce mémoire est d’examiner quelle est la contribution respective des maladies chroniques et de l'incapacité dans l'utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées et de leur interaction. Il s’agit de savoir si l'association entre la maladie chronique et l'utilisation des services de santé est modifiée par l’incapacité prenant en compte les caractéristiques de l'individu et son environnement. Ce travail est basé sur le modèle comportemental proposé par Andersen et Newman et le modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Pour répondre à l’objectif, nous utilisons les données du projet de recherche “ FRéLE ” (Fragilité, une étude longitudinale de ses expressions), réalisé durant la période 2010 -2013 auprès d’un échantillon de 1643 personnes âgées vivant dans la communauté au Québec. L’incapacité est évaluée à l’aide de deux indicateurs : les AVQ et les AVD. Les maladies chroniques sont mesurées par l’indice fonctionnel de comorbidité (IFC). La dépression est évaluée selon les critères de l’échelle de dépression gériatrique (EDG). L’état cognitif est mesuré par l'évaluation cognitive de Montréal (MoCA). Les facteurs de prédisposition comportent l’âge, le sexe, l’ethnicité et le niveau scolaire. Les facteurs facilitateurs incluent le revenu et le réseau social, ce dernier étant mesure par la présence ou non d’une personne de soutien et son lien avec la personne âgée. Divers modèles de régression sont adoptés pour identifier les facteurs statistiquement significatifs du modèle comportemental d’Andersen et Newman et du modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Nos résultats ont montré que, si le rôle des prédicteurs de l’utilisation varie en fonction du type de services de santé utilisé, l’utilisation s’accroît principalement avec le nombre de maladies chroniques. En ce qui concerne l’interaction entre la maladie chronique et l’incapacité, nos résultats ont révélé que l’interaction n’est statistiquement significative pour aucun des services analysés. Compte tenu de la diversité et les besoins de la population âgée, caractérisée par une prévalence élevée de maladies chroniques et d'incapacités, l’étude des facteurs impliqués dans l'utilisation des services de santé sera utile pour la mise en œuvre d’une offre de services, plus conforme aux besoins de cette population

Investigating the Tradespace between Increased Automation and Optimal Manning on Aircraft Carrier Decks

With increasing prevalence and capabilities of autonomous systems as part of complex heterogeneous manned-unmanned environments (HMUEs), an important consideration is the impact of the introduction of automation on the optimal assignment of human personnel. The US Navy has implemented optimal staffing techniques before in the 1990's and 2000's with a "minimal staffing" approach. The results were poor, leading to the degradation of Naval preparedness. Clearly, another approach to determining optimal staffing is necessary. To this end, the goal of this research is to develop human performance models for use in determining optimal manning of HMUEs. The human performance models are developed using an agent-based simulation of the aircraft carrier flight deck, a representative safety-critical HMUE. The Personnel Multi-Agent Safety and Control Simulation (PMASCS) simulates and analyzes the effects of introducing generalized maintenance crew skill sets and accelerated failure repair times on the overall performance and safety of the carrier flight deck. A behavioral model of four operator types (ordnance officers, chocks and chains, fueling officers, plane captains, and maintenance operators) is presented here along with an aircraft failure model. The main focus of this work is on the maintenance operators and aircraft failure modeling, since they have a direct impact on total launch time, a primary metric for carrier deck performance. With PMASCS I explore the effects of two variables on total launch time of 22 aircraft: 1) skill level of maintenance operators and 2) aircraft failure repair times while on the catapult (referred to as Phase 4 repair times). It is found that neither introducing a generic skill set to maintenance crews nor introducing a technology to accelerate Phase 4 aircraft repair times improves the average total launch time of 22 aircraft. An optimal manning level of 3 maintenance crews is found under all conditions, the point at which any additional maintenance crews does not reduce the total launch time. An additional discussion is included about how these results change if the operations are relieved of the bottleneck of installing the holdback bar at launch time.

Barriers and Facilitators to Adoption of Genomic Services for Colorectal Care within the Veterans Health Administration.

We examined facilitators and barriers to adoption of genomic services for colorectal care, one of the first genomic medicine applications, within the Veterans Health Administration to shed light on areas for practice change. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 58 clinicians to understand use of the following genomic services for colorectal care: family health history documentation, molecular and genetic testing, and genetic counseling. Data collection and analysis were informed by two conceptual frameworks, the Greenhalgh Diffusion of Innovation and Andersen Behavioral Model, to allow for concurrent examination of both access and innovation factors. Specialists were more likely than primary care clinicians to obtain family history to investigate hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC), but with limited detail; clinicians suggested templates to facilitate retrieval and documentation of family history according to guidelines. Clinicians identified advantage of molecular tumor analysis prior to genetic testing, but tumor testing was infrequently used due to perceived low disease burden. Support from genetic counselors was regarded as facilitative for considering hereditary basis of CRC diagnosis, but there was variability in awareness of and access to this expertise. Our data suggest the need for tools and policies to establish and disseminate well-defined processes for accessing services and adhering to guidelines.

« Utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées : association avec la maladie chronique et l’incapacité »

Diverses publications soulignent l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie et avec elle, le vieillissement mondial de la population. Ce processus se poursuivra à l'avenir, ainsi que son influence sur l’incidence et la prévalence de l'incapacité. Chez les personnes âgées, l’incapacité, les maladies chroniques et leur association constituent un sujet important dans le domaine de la santé publique en raison de l'effet qu'ils ont sur la demande des services de santé. Le but de ce mémoire est d’examiner quelle est la contribution respective des maladies chroniques et de l'incapacité dans l'utilisation des services de santé chez les personnes âgées et de leur interaction. Il s’agit de savoir si l'association entre la maladie chronique et l'utilisation des services de santé est modifiée par l’incapacité prenant en compte les caractéristiques de l'individu et son environnement. Ce travail est basé sur le modèle comportemental proposé par Andersen et Newman et le modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Pour répondre à l’objectif, nous utilisons les données du projet de recherche “ FRéLE ” (Fragilité, une étude longitudinale de ses expressions), réalisé durant la période 2010 -2013 auprès d’un échantillon de 1643 personnes âgées vivant dans la communauté au Québec. L’incapacité est évaluée à l’aide de deux indicateurs : les AVQ et les AVD. Les maladies chroniques sont mesurées par l’indice fonctionnel de comorbidité (IFC). La dépression est évaluée selon les critères de l’échelle de dépression gériatrique (EDG). L’état cognitif est mesuré par l'évaluation cognitive de Montréal (MoCA). Les facteurs de prédisposition comportent l’âge, le sexe, l’ethnicité et le niveau scolaire. Les facteurs facilitateurs incluent le revenu et le réseau social, ce dernier étant mesure par la présence ou non d’une personne de soutien et son lien avec la personne âgée. Divers modèles de régression sont adoptés pour identifier les facteurs statistiquement significatifs du modèle comportemental d’Andersen et Newman et du modèle du processus d’incapacité de Verbrugge et Jette. Nos résultats ont montré que, si le rôle des prédicteurs de l’utilisation varie en fonction du type de services de santé utilisé, l’utilisation s’accroît principalement avec le nombre de maladies chroniques. En ce qui concerne l’interaction entre la maladie chronique et l’incapacité, nos résultats ont révélé que l’interaction n’est statistiquement significative pour aucun des services analysés. Compte tenu de la diversité et les besoins de la population âgée, caractérisée par une prévalence élevée de maladies chroniques et d'incapacités, l’étude des facteurs impliqués dans l'utilisation des services de santé sera utile pour la mise en œuvre d’une offre de services, plus conforme aux besoins de cette population

Competências de assertividade na relação íntima

A presente investigação pretende analisar a eficácia de um programa breve de promoção de competências de assertividade na relação conjugal. Fez-se uma revisão da literatura de conceitos ligados à conjugalidade sendo os mais pertinentes para este estudo a satisfação conjugal, a comunicação e a intimidade. Focou-se também o psicodrama moreniano e outras abordagens utilizadas no trabalho de educação e enriquecimento do casal. Na elaboração do programa, optou-se por uma abordagem eclética, conciliando o modelo cognitivo-comportamental com uma técnica do Psicodrama Moreniano. O estudo foi realizado com uma amostra (conveniência) composta por 2 casais heterossexuais que vivem em coabitação. A metodologia utilizada foi maioritariamente qualitativa e para a recolha de informação usou-se a entrevista semi-estruturada IRI - Intimate Relationship Interview (Lima, Soares, Vieira & Collins, 2005) e a técnica da escultura. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que os casais têm uma perceção bastante satisfatória na maioria das áreas da intimidade conjugal; a comunicação aparenta ser a área que requer mais intervenção por parte dos casais. Os instrumentos de recolha de informação mostraram-se eficazes e complementares. O programa evidenciou resultados satisfatórios atendendo aos ganhos dos casais, contudo serviu mais para o levantamento das áreas de dificuldades na relação do que para a aquisição de competências assertivas.

Para uma compreensão dos comportamentos de automutilação

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada no Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção do grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica