951 resultados para Bayesian VAR


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Laboratory bioassay studies were conducted in southeast Queensland, Australia,: on the efficacy of Teknar (R), VectoBac (R) 12AS, and Cybate (R) (active ingredient: 1,200 international toxic units Bacillus thuringiensis var, israelensis [Bti]) against 3rd instars of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti. Ae. notoscriptus, Ae. vigilax, and Ae. camptorhynchus. Probit analyses were then used to determine LD,, (median lethal dose), LD95, and lethal dose ratios (LDR). Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, both container-habitat species, tolerated the highest Bti concentrations compared with saltmarsh Ae. vigilax and Ae. camptorhynchus. For example, the LDR for Ae. vigilax versus Ae. notoscriptus exposed to Cybate was 0.14 (95% confidence limit [CL] 0.03-0.61). Similarly, the Cybate LDR for Ae. camptorhynchus versus Ae. notoscriptus was 0.22 (95% CL 0.07-0.70). Teknar produced similar results with an LDR of 0.21 (95% CL 0.04-1.10) for Aedes vigilax versus Aedes notoscriptus. Differences in product efficacy were found when tested against the 2 container-breeding species. Cybate was less effective than Teknar with LDRs of 1.55 (95% CL 0.65-3.67) and 1.87 (95% CL 0.68-5.15) for Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, respectively. The significant differences in susceptibility between mosquito species and varying efficacy between products highlight the importance of evaluating concentration-response data prior to contracting with distributors of mosquito control products. This information is crucial to resistance management strategies.

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We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

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We evaluated the efficiency of callus induction and plantlet regeneration from hypocotyl explants of broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica). The cultivars were ‘Marathon’, ‘Greenbelt’, and ‘Shogun’. Transformation success was not affected by the presence of tobacco feeder-cell layers on the culture media. The frequency of shoot regeneration was greater from 10-d-old hypocotyls than from 14-d-old hypocotyls. Both ‘Marathon’ and ‘Greenbelt’ had higher potentials for tissue regeneration than did ‘Shogun’. We found that for transformation selection, the optimum concentration was either 50 mg/L kanamycin or 100 mg/L genetkin.

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Hypersensitivity to external stimuli, progressing in some animals to manic behaviour, occurred in a cattle herd that grazed a crop of field peas (Pisum sativum var arvense) in the pre-flowering stage. Haematological and biochemical analyses eliminated hypomagnesaemia and ketosis as diagnoses. Other than two steers euthanased due to injuries sustained during manic episodes, all affected animals survived, recovering over 3 days when moved to alternative pasture. No necropsies were conducted. No microbial pathogens or endophytes were found on or in the plants. A previously reported incident in Victoria in 1987 in cattle grazing peas appeared to be of a similar nature. Environmental factors leading to these incidents were not clearly identified.

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Management of coastal environments requires understanding of ecological relationships among different habitats and their biotas. Changes in abundance and distribution of mangroves, like those of other coastal habitats, have generally been interpreted in terms of changes in biodiversity or fisheries resources within individual stands. In several parts of their range, anthropogenically increased inputs of sediment to estuaries have led to the spread of mangroves. There is, however, little information on the relative ecological properties, or conservational values, of stands of different ages. The faunal, floral and sedimentological properties of mangrove (Avicennia marina var. australasica) stands of two different ages in New Zealand has been compared. Older (>60 years) and younger (3-12 years) stands showed clear separation on the basis of environmental characteristics and benthic macrofauna. Numbers of faunal taxa were generally larger at younger sites, and numbers of individuals of several taxa were also larger at these sites. The total number of individuals was not different between the two age-classes, largely due to the presence of large numbers of the surface-living gastropod Potamopyrgus antipodarum at the older sites. It is hypothesized that as mangrove stands mature, the focus of faunal diversity may shift from the benthos to animals living on the mangrove plants themselves, such as insects and spiders, though these were not included in the present study. Differences in the faunas were coincident with differences in the nature of the sediment. Sediments in older stands were more compacted and contained more organic matter and leaf litter. Measurement of leaf chemistry suggested that mangrove plants in the younger stands were able to take up more N and P than those in the older stands. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

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Ichthyosporea is a recently recognized group of morphologically simple eukaryotes, many of which cause disease in aquatic organisms. Ribosomal RNA sequence analyses place Ichthyosporea near the divergence of the animal and fungal lineages, but do not allow resolution of its exact phylogenetic position. Some of the best evidence for a specific grouping of animals and fungi (Opisthokonta) has come from elongation factor 1alpha, not only phylogenetic analysis of sequences but also the presence or absence of short insertions and deletions. We sequenced the EF-1alpha gene from the ichthyosporean parasite Ichthyophonus irregularis and determined its phylogenetic position using neighbor-joining, parsimony and Bayesian methods. We also sequenced EF-1alpha genes from four chytrids to provide broader representation within fungi. Sequence analyses and the presence of a characteristic 12 amino acid insertion strongly indicate that I. irregularis is a member of Opisthokonta, but do not resolve whether I. irregularis is a specific relative of animals or of fungi. However, the EF-1alpha of I. irregularis exhibits a two amino acid deletion heretofore reported only among fungi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

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A partir de 27 cães com sarna sarcóptica, envolvendo 143 pessoas expostas à infestação, observaram-se 58 (40,56%) com lesões cutâneas sugestivas de escabiose. Tais lesões mostraram-se mais incidentes nas mulheres do que nos homens e indivíduos de todas as faixas etárias foram acometidos, indistintamente. Foi demonstrada a presença do agente em 3 dos 12 casos humanos observados que mantiveram contato com animais escabiosos.

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The susceptibility of field collected Aedes aegypti larvae was evaluated in terms of median lethal time (LT50) and final mortality, when treated with temephos, Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis as well as mixtures of these two agents. Third instar larvae were shown to be more susceptible than early and late fourth instar ones to the entomopathogen. Survival of some individuals when exposed to temephos suggest possible resistance. Temporal synergism in early fourth instar larvae was detected when they were exposed to mixtures of Bti-temephos. The possibility of this integrated treatment is commented on.

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O uso de pequenas calhas de madeira no leito de riachos, manualmente colonizadas com borrachudos, é proposto para avaliações da eficiência de larvicidas 3 ou 4 horas após as aplicações. A susceptibilidade larval também foi avaliada pelo critério de TL50. Em três ensaios no litoral do Estado de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro, populações de Simulium (C.) pertinax Kollar, 1832 mostraram-se resistentes ao temephos, mesmo em altas concentrações. Vectobac 12 AS, à base de Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis mostrou-se mais potente contra larvas dos últimos estádios e eficiente para controle em concentrações a partir de 7.200 UIP/1 (10 min.). O TL50para 3.744 UIP/1 (10 min.) foi de 70,9 minutos.

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Tendo por meta a padronização das variáveis influenciando a resistência de esporos empregados no controle do processo esterilizante por óxido de etileno, foram obtidos esporos de Bacillus subtilis var. niger, em meio sólido e líquido sintético de esporulação. Tais esporos, após padronização quantitativa dos 12 lotes obtidos, foram submetidos a exposições subletais como bioindicadores, tendo o papel como suporte. Construiu-se, então, a curva de letalidade característica de cada lote. A análise estatística empregada não evidenciou diferenças entre resistência dos 10 lotes obtidos em meio sólido e os 2 em meio líquido sintético, ressaltando-se a vantagem quanto ao rendimento que caracterizou a primeira metodologia.

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O VAR (Value at Risk) ,valor em risco, é a perda máxima provável de uma carteira para um nível de confiança determinado, num horizonte temporal especificado.

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Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

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Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.