Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Advances in Research on Semantic Roles

Especially in functional-typological linguistics, semantic roles have been studied thoroughly, because they constitute a good starting point for any study on argument marking due to their semantically defined nature. However, the very concept of semantic roles is far from being without problems, and there is still no consensus on how the roles are best defined. In this volume, the notion will be discussed from novel perspectives with the aim of providing new insights into our understanding of semantic roles. Two of the papers deal with semantic role clusters, one with semantic roles in verbless constructions, one with diachrony of semantic roles and two with individual semantic roles that have not been studied in too much detail in previous studies. The book may not offer answers to all questions the readers may have, but at least it raises interesting further questions relevant to arriving at a better understanding of semantic roles.

Optimization models for selecting bus stops for accessibility improvements for people with disabilities

Bus stops are key links in the journeys of transit patrons with disabilities. Inaccessible bus stops prevent people with disabilities from using fixed-route bus services, thus limiting their mobility. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990 prescribes the minimum requirements for bus stop accessibility by riders with disabilities. Due to limited budgets, transit agencies can only select a limited number of bus stop locations for ADA improvements annually. These locations should preferably be selected such that they maximize the overall benefits to patrons with disabilities. In addition, transit agencies may also choose to implement the universal design paradigm, which involves higher design standards than current ADA requirements and can provide amenities that are useful for all riders, like shelters and lighting. Many factors can affect the decision to improve a bus stop, including rider-based aspects like the number of riders with disabilities, total ridership, customer complaints, accidents, deployment costs, as well as locational aspects like the location of employment centers, schools, shopping areas, and so on. These interlacing factors make it difficult to identify optimum improvement locations without the aid of an optimization model. This dissertation proposes two integer programming models to help identify a priority list of bus stops for accessibility improvements. The first is a binary integer programming model designed to identify bus stops that need improvements to meet the minimum ADA requirements. The second involves a multi-objective nonlinear mixed integer programming model that attempts to achieve an optimal compromise among the two accessibility design standards. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used extensively to both prepare the model input and examine the model output. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to combine all of the factors affecting the benefits to patrons with disabilities. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the reasonableness of the model outputs in response to changes in model constraints. Based on a case study using data from Broward County Transit (BCT) in Florida, the models were found to produce a list of bus stops that upon close examination were determined to be highly logical. Compared to traditional approaches using staff experience, requests from elected officials, customer complaints, etc., these optimization models offer a more objective and efficient platform on which to make bus stop improvement suggestions.

For the win (FTW)! Contribuições de um serious game para o ensino-aprendizagem de argumentação

This is a qualitative and reflexive research with focus on digital literacy. Among the digital media that could support the teaching of argumentation in the Science & Technology and Information Technology undergraduate courses of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, we chose a serious game as object of research. Given the object of study in the discipline of reading and writing II – argumentation and genre from the order of argumentative writing -, common to the undergraduate courses mentioned, we invest on the development of a serious game, named ArgumentACTION, because we believe that it may, in fact, become a promising didactic instrument. Therefore we intend to understand whether and how this game can help students develop their reading and writing skills more independently, specifically towards an argumentative order genre: the opinion piece. With this research, we intend to contribute to the teaching of the Portuguese language on three bases: extending theoretical scope, in order to generate greater intelligibility on the teaching-learning process of argumenting; proposing a new methodological possibility, with the incorporation of a serious games to teaching; perfecting the game with which we are working, in order to build – and make available – a more refined digital tool to subsidize the teaching and learning of reading and writing of opinion pieces. To do so, we use the following as theoretical-methodological: Studies of Literacy (KLEIMAN, 2012b; TINOCO, 2008; OLIVEIRA, 2010; GEE, 2009; 2010; ROJO, 2012), The Applied Linguistics (KLEIMAN, 1998; BUSH-LEE, 2009), The Philosophy of Language (BAKHTIN, VOLOSHINOV, 2012) and Critical Pedagogy (DEWEY, 2010). A group of students from the upper mentioned undergraduate courses collaborated with this research by playing and analyzing the game. They were also interviewed about their experience in this matter. From the data generated, we established the categories of analysis: decollection, interest, multimodality/multisemiosis and interactivity, agent of literacy, learning principles. The conclusions we obtained show that the investment in applications, especially games, can bring real benefits to the teaching/learning of the Portuguese language; moreover they reveal that the work on argumenting has much to gain with the incorporation of serious games; however the possible advantages depend on a focused teaching practice and constant improvements and updates of this type of interactive tool, as well as the pedagogical practice from those who use and develop the games.

Behaviour change techniques in home-based cardiac rehabilitation: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programmes offering secondary prevention for cardiovascular disease (CVD) advise healthy lifestyle behaviours, with the behaviour change techniques (BCTs) of goals and planning, feedback and monitoring, and social support recommended. More information is needed about BCT use in home-based CR to support these programmes in practice.

AIM: To identify and describe the use of BCTs in home-based CR programmes.

DESIGN AND SETTING: Randomised controlled trials of home-based CR between 2005 and 2015 were identified by searching MEDLINE(®), Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Cochrane Database.

METHOD: Reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for eligibility. Relevant data, including BCTs, were extracted from included studies. A meta-analysis studied risk factor change in home-based and comparator programmes.

RESULTS: From 2448 studies identified, 11 of good methodological quality (10 on post-myocardial infarction, one on heart failure, 1907 patients) were included. These reported the use of 20 different BCTs. Social support (unspecified) was used in all studies and goal setting (behaviour) in 10. Of the 11 studies, 10 reported effectiveness in reducing CVD risk factors, but one study showed no improvement compared to usual care. This study differed from effective programmes in that it didn't include BCTs that had instructions on how to perform the behaviour and monitoring, or a credible source.

CONCLUSION: Social support and goal setting were frequently used BCTs in home-based CR programmes, with the BCTs related to monitoring, instruction on how to perform the behaviour, and credible source being included in effective programmes. Further robust trials are needed to determine the relative value of different BCTs within CR programmes.

Colour in English: from metonymy to metaphor

Colour words abound with figurative meanings, expressing much more than visual signals. Some of these figurative properties are well known; in English, for example, black is associated with EVIL and blue with DEPRESSION. Colours themselves are also described in metaphorical terms using lexis from other domains of experience, such as when we talk of deep blue, drawing on the domain of spatial position. Both metaphor and colour are of central concern to semantic theory; moreover, colour is recognised as a highly productive metaphoric field. Despite this, comparatively few works have dealt with these topics in unison, and even those few have tended to focus on Basic Colour Terms (BCTs) rather than including non-BCTs. This thesis addresses the need for an integrated study of both BCTs and non-BCTs, and provides an overview of metaphor and metonymy within the semantic area of colour. Conducted as part of the Mapping Metaphor project, this research uses the unique data source of the Historical Thesaurus of English (HT) to identify areas of meaning that share vocabulary with colour and thus point to figurative uses. The lexicographic evidence is then compared to current language use, found in the British National Corpus (BNC) and the Corpus of Contemporary American (COCA), to test for currency and further developments or changes in meaning. First, terms for saturation, tone and brightness are discussed. This lexis often functions as hue modifiers and is found to transfer into COLOUR from areas such as LIFE, EMOTION, TRUTH and MORALITY. The evidence for cross-modal links between COLOUR with SOUND, TOUCH and DIMENSION is then presented. Each BCT is discussed in turn, along with a selection of non-BCTs, where it is revealed how frequently hue terms engage in figurative meanings. This includes the secondary BCTs, with the only exception being orange, and a number of non-BCTs. All of the evidence discussed confirms that figurative uses of colour originate through a process of metonymy, although these are often extended into metaphor.

Las reformas emprendidas en Túnez de la mano del FMI y el BM ¿Precedente para la revolución de los Jazmines?”(1987-2010)

El estallido de la “Revolución de los Jazmines” cuestionó el éxito de un país que por más de dos décadas fue exaltado por el Banco Mundial (BM) y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) por los logros alcanzados gracias a un programa de restructuración económica. Las exigencias e inconformidades de los manifestantes, que iban más allá de la falta de garantías democráticas, permitieron ver que el país sufría de problemas estructurales relacionados a los altos niveles de desempleo, la precariedad de la situación laboral y la desigualdad. Esta monografía pretende evaluar el papel que tuvieron las reformas económicas y en general el modelo de desarrollo que siguió Túnez de la mano del FMI y el BM, en el surgimiento y consolidación de las condiciones que dieron lugar a la Revolución de los Jazmines a finales del año 2010.