A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

HOME RANGE AND SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF MANED WOLVES IN THE BRAZILIAN GRASSLANDS

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is the largest canid in South America, weighing up to 30 kg, and exhibits an omnivorous diet based on fruits and small vertebrates. Maned wolves are considered to live in monogamous pairs defending a common territory, with mates living a largely solitary life, but these conclusions come from few studies with small samples. We captured maned wolves in Emas National Park, central Brazil, and monitored their use of space using radiotelemetry. Home-range size and overlap of 45 adults, and interactions between members of 5 pairs, were investigated. Home-range sizes of resident adults averaged 80.18 km(2) using the fixed kernel with 95% of the locations, and averaged 13.78 km(2) with 50% of the locations. Overlap of 95% ranges between male-male, female-female, or mixed dyads was similar, approximately 0.20, whereas 50% ranges of maned wolves showed less overlap overall but more tolerance for overlap with the opposite sex. Members of a pair were located alone more often than together, and even when located simultaneously maintained a mean distance of >0.5 km apart, independent of time of day. Results are in agreement with a spatial organization based on monogamous mating pairs with little intrapair sociality, but the latter needs to be investigated in more detail.

A new diffusion and flow theory for activated carbon from low pressure to capillary condensation range

In this paper, we develop a theory for diffusion and flow of pure sub-critical adsorbates in microporous activated carbon over a wide range of pressure, ranging from very low to high pressure, where capillary condensation is occurring. This theory does not require any fitting parameter. The only information needed for the prediction is the complete pore size distribution of activated carbon. The various interesting behaviors of permeability versus loading are observed such as the maximum permeability at high loading (occurred at about 0.8-0.9 relative pressure). The theory is tested with diffusion and flow of benzene through a commercial activated carbon, and the agreement is found to be very good in the light that there is no fitting parameter in the model. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial expression of fibroblast growth factor receptor 4 isoforms in murine tissues

Fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFRs) undergo highly regulated spatial and temporal changes of expression during development. This study describes the use of quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunochemistry to assess the changes in expression of FGFR4 as compared to its FGFR4-17a and -17b isoforms in mouse tissues, from early embryogenesis through to adulthood. Compared to FGFR4, the expression of the isoforms is more restricted at all developmental stages tested. The reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction demonstrated that FGFR4 is expressed in more tissue types than either of its isoforms: it was found predominantly in lung, liver, brain, skeletal muscle and kidney, whereas the FGFR4-17a form was detected in lung and skeletal muscle, and the FGFR4-17b form only in lung, liver, skeletal muscle and kidney. Immunohistochemistry confirmed strong FGFR4-17b expression in the postnatal lung. When combined, the results suggest that FGFR4 variants play important roles particularly in lung and skeletal muscle development.

Exploring the interplay between Framing and Securitization theory: the case of the Arab Spring protests in Bahrain

This article advances the theoretical integration between securitization theory and the framing approach, resulting in a set of criteria hereby called security framing. It seeks to make a twofold contribution: to sharpen the study of the ideational elements that underlie the construction of threats, and to advance towards a greater assessment of the audience's preferences. The case study under examination is the 2011 military intervention of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Bahrain. The security framing of this case will help illuminate the dynamics at play in one of the most important recent events in Gulf politics.

Appraisal of urban rehabilitation literature and projects, including a glossary of terms and a preliminary set of indicators characterising LUDA

LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

Child-care attendance and common morbidity: evidence of association in the literature and questions of design

Papers on child-care attendance as a risk factor for acute respiratory infections and diarrhea were reviewed. There was great variety among the studies with regard to the design, definition of exposure and definition of outcomes. All the traditional epidemiological study designs have been used. The studies varied in terms of how child-care attendance in general was defined, and for different settings. These definitions differed especially in relation to the minimum time of attendance required. The outcomes were also defined and measured in several different ways. The analyses performed were not always appropriate, leading to sets of results of uneven quality, and composed of different measures of association relating different exposures and outcomes, that made summarizing difficult. Despite that, the results reported were remarkably consistent. Only two of the papers reviewed failed to show some association between child-care attendance and increased acute respiratory infections, or diarrhea. On the other hand, the magnitude of the associations reported varied widely, especially for lower respiratory infections. Taken together, the studies so far published provide evidence that children attending child-care centers, especially those under three years of age, are at a higher risk of upper respiratory infections, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhea. The studies were not consistent, however, in relation to attendance at child-care homes. Children in such settings were sometimes similar to those in child-care centers, sometimes similar to those cared for at home, and sometimes presented an intermediate risk.

Temporal and spatial variability of fin whale's (Balaenoptera physalus) distribution in the Pelagos Sanctuary: Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 20 de Março de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

Optimizing the renewable generation mix in the Portuguese power system based on temporal and spatial diversity

Renewable energy sources (RES) have unique characteristics that grant them preference in energy and environmental policies. However, considering that the renewable resources are barely controllable and sometimes unpredictable, some challenges are faced when integrating high shares of renewable sources in power systems. In order to mitigate this problem, this paper presents a decision-making methodology regarding renewable investments. The model computes the optimal renewable generation mix from different available technologies (hydro, wind and photovoltaic) that integrates a given share of renewable sources, minimizing residual demand variability, therefore stabilizing the thermal power generation. The model also includes a spatial optimization of wind farms in order to identify the best distribution of wind capacity. This methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system.

Nuclear medicine technologist education and training in Europe: literature and web-based findings

Purpose - The education and training of a nuclear medicine technologist (NMT) is not homogeneous among European countries, which leads to different scope of practices and, therefore, different technical skills are assigned. The goal of this research was to characterize the education and training of NMT in Europe. Materials and methods - This study was based on a literature research to characterize the education and training of NMT and support the historical evolution of this profession. It was divided into two different phases: the first phase included analysis of scientific articles and the second phase included research of curricula that allow health professionals to work as NMT in Europe. Results - The majority of the countries [N=31 (89%)] offer the NMT curriculum integrated into the high education system and only in four (11%) countries the education is provided by professional schools. The duration in each education system is not equal, varying in professional schools (2-3 years) and high education level system (2-4 years), which means that different European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System, such as 240, 230, 222, 210 or 180 European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System, are attributed to the graduates. The professional title and scope of the practice of NMT are different in different countries in Europe. In most countries of Europe, nuclear medicine training is not specific and curriculum does not demonstrate the Nuclear Medicine competencies performed in clinical practice. Conclusion - The heterogeneity in education and training for NMT is an issue prevalent among European countries. For NMT professional development, there is a huge need to formalize and unify educational and training programmes in Europe.