An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Trinidad And Tobago

This research paper assesses the likely economic impact of climate change on the health sector in Trinidad and Tobago. The analysis, however, was limited to the economic impact of only a few climate-related diseases1 for which data were available. The approach utilized in this paper makes for easy extrapolation once the data on the other climate-related illnesses become available so that a full impact assessment can be carried out.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Ambient levels of air pollution induce clinical worsening of blepharitis

Background: Even though air pollutants exposure is associated with changes in the ocular surface and tear film, its relationship to the clinical course of blepharitis, a common eyelid disease, had not yet been investigated. Our objective was to investigate the correlation between air pollution and acute manifestations of blepharitis. Method: We recorded all cases of changes in the eyelids and ocular surface, and rated clinical findings on a scale from zero (normal) to two (severe alterations). Daily values of carbon monoxide, particulate matter smaller than 10 mu m in diameter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations and meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) in the vicinity of the medical service were obtained. Specific linear regression models for each outcome were constructed including pollutants as independent variables (single pollutant models). Temperature and humidity were included as confounding variables. Results: increases of 28.8 mu g/m(3) in the concentration of particulate matter and 1.1 ppm in the concentration of CO were associated with increases in cases of blepharitis on the day of exposure (5 cases, 95% CI: 1-10 and 6 cases, 95% CI: 1-12, respectively). Conclusion: Exposure to usual air pollutants concentrations present in large cities affects, in a consistent manner, the eyes of residents contributing to the increasing incidence of diseases of the eyelid margin. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IMPACT OF 2000-2050 CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF MERCURY

Since it is very toxic and accumulates in organisms, particularly in fish, mercury is a very important pollutant and one of the most studies. And this concern over the toxicity and human health risks of mercury has prompted efforts to regulate anthropogenic emissions. As mercury pollution problem is getting increasingly serious, we are curious about how serious this problem will be in the future. What is more, how the climate change in the future will affect the mercury concentration in the atmosphere. So we investigate the impact of climate change on mercury concentration in the atmosphere. We focus on the comparison between the mercury data for year 2000 and for year 2050. The GEOS-Chem model shows that the mercury concentrations for all tracers (1 to 3), elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) have differences between 2000 and 2050 in most regions over the world. From the model results, we can see the climate change from 2000 to 2050 would decrease Hg(0) surface concentration in most of the world. The driving factors of Hg(0) surface concentration changes are natural emissions(ocean and vegetation) and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). The climate change from 2000 to 2050 would increase Hg(II) surface concentration in most of mid-latitude continental parts of the world while decreasing Hg(II) surface concentration in most of high-latitude part of the world. The driving factors of Hg(II) surface concentration changes is deposition amount change (majorly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050 and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). Climate change would increase Hg(P) concentration in most of mid-latitude area of the world and meanwhile decrease Hg(P) concentration in most of high-latitude regions of the world. For the Hg(P) concentration changes, the major driving factor is the deposition amount change (mainly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Organisational learning, climate change and the tragedy of the commons in China

This paper ends with a brief discussion of climate change and suggests that a practical solution would be to transfer much of the current air, sea and long-haul trucking of intercontinental freight between China and Europe (and the USA) to maglev systems. First we review the potential of Asian knowledge management and organisational learning and contrast this against Western precepts finding that there seems to be little incentive to 'look after one's fellows' in China (and perhaps across Asia) outside of tight personal guanxi networks. This is likely to be the case in the intense production regions of China where little time is allowed for 'organisational learning' by the staff and there is little incentive to initiate 'knowledge management' by senior managers. Thus the 'tragedy of the commons' will be enacted by individuals, township, and provincial leaders upwards to top ministers - no one will care for the climate or pollution, only for their own group and their wealth creation prospects. Copyright © 2011 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

The time course of vasoconstriction and endothelin receptor A expression in pulmonary arterioles of mice continuously exposed to ambient urban levels of air pollution

The present study aimed to verify the time course of the effects of environmental levels of urban air pollution toxicity on lung arterioles. BALB/c mice (n = 56) were continuously exposed to selective chambers equipped with (filtered, F) or without (non-filtered, NF) filter devices for particles and toxic gases for 24 h/day, over 14, 21, 30 or 45 days. After exposure, we evaluated the lumen-wall relationship (an estimator of arteriolar narrowing), endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and endothelin type A receptor (ETAr) expression in the vascular wall and inflammatory influx of the peribronchiolar area. Concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM <= 2.5 mu g/m(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), black smoke (BS), humidity and temperature in both the environment and inside the chambers were measured daily. Filters cleared 100% of BS and 97% of PM inside the F chamber. The arteriole wall of the lungs of mice from NF chamber had an increased ETAr expression (p <= 0.042) concomitant to a decrease in the lumen/wall ratio (p = 0.02) on the early days of exposure, compared to controls. They also presented a progressive increment of inflammatory influx in the peribronchiolar area during the study (p = 0.04) and decrement of the eNOS expression on the 45th day of exposure in both vascular layers (p <= 0.03). We found that after 14 days of exposure, the ambient levels of air pollutants in Sao Paulo induced vasoconstriction that was associated with an increase in ETAr expression. These vascular results do not appear to be coupled to the progressive inflammatory influx in lung tissue, suggesting a down-regulation of vasoconstrictive mechanisms through an imbalance in the cytokines network. It is likely that these responses are protective measures that decrease tissue damage brought about by continuous exposure to air pollutants. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of short-term preconceptional exposure to particulate air pollution on treatment outcome in couples undergoing in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF/ET)

To assess the potential effects of short-term exposure to particulate air pollution during follicular phase on clinical, laboratory, and pregnancy outcomes of women undergoing IVF/ET. Retrospective cohort study of 400 first IVF/ET cycles of women exposed to ambient particulate matter during follicular phase. Particulate matter (PM) was categorized into quartiles (Q(1): a parts per thousand currency sign30.48 A mu g/m(3), Q(2): 30.49-42.00 A mu g/m(3), Q(3): 42.01-56.72 A mu g/m(3), and Q(4): > 56.72 A mu g/m(3)). Clinical, laboratory, or treatment variables were not affected by follicular phase PM exposure periods. Women exposed to Q(4) period during the follicular phase of conception cycles had a higher risk of miscarriage (odds ratio, 5.05; 95% confidence interval: 1.04-25.51) when compared to women exposed to Q(1-3) periods. Our results show an association between brief exposure to high levels of ambient PM during the preconceptional period and early pregnancy loss, although no effect of this exposure on clinical, laboratory, and treatment outcomes was observed.

The effects of chronic exposure to traffic derived air pollution on the ocular surface

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical relevance of chronic exposure to ambient levels of traffic derived air pollution on the ocular surface. Methods: A panel study involving 55 volunteers was carried out in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We measured the mean individual levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) exposure for 7 days. All subjects answered the Ocular Symptom Disease Index (OSDI) and a symptoms inventory. Subsequently, subjects underwent Schirmer I test, biomicroscopy, vital staining and tear breakup time (TOUT) assessment. Subject`s mean daily exposure to NO(2) was categorized in quartiles. Statistical analysis was performed using one-way ANOVA, Tukey HSD and Chi-Square tests. Results: A dose-response pattern was detected between OSDI scores and NO(2) quartiles (p < 0.05). There was a significant association between NO(2) quartiles and reported ocular irritation (X(2) = 9.2, p < 0.05) and a significant negative association between TBUT and NO(2) exposure (p < 0.05, R = -0.316. Spearman`s correlation). There was a significant increase in the frequency of meibomitis in subjects exposed to higher levels of NO(2) (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Subjects exposed to higher levels of traffic derived air pollution reported more ocular discomfort symptoms and presented greater tear film instability, suggesting that the ocular discomfort symptoms and tear breakup time could be used as convenient bioindicators of the adverse health effects of traffic derived air pollution exposure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fighting climate change in the air: lessons from the EU directive on global aviation

The European Union's (EU) decision to include aviation into the Emissions Trade Scheme was heatedly contested. Countries around the world, but mainly the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa group (BRICS) and the US, denounced the EU's initiate as illegal and unilateral. Following a decade of frustrated negotiations at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), this paper interrogates why such measure, in principle climate-friendly, inspired so much global resentment. I argue that concerns with competitiveness and risks of legal inconsistency are important, but insufficient elements to explain the core of the conflict. The paper suggests that the EU was strongly criticized because third countries perceived this action as an imposed solution, which fostered an environment of distrust. Therefore, I claim that the problem has more to do with a normative divide than with a substantive divergence on what should be done regarding aviation emissions. My analysis is informed by the present literature on the links between trade and climate change, but gives particular weight to first-hand information through interviews with key stakeholders. The paper is divided in three parts. First, it presents the scope of the EU directive in historical perspective. Second, it explores the EU's measure through three different angles: legal, economical and political. The final part explores some possible solutions to overcome these divergences.

Air pollution and its impacts on health in Vitoria, Espirito Santo, Brazil

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the impact of air pollution on respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity of children and adults in the city of Vitoria, state of Espirito Santo. METHODS A study was carried out using time-series models via Poisson regression from hospitalization and pollutant data in Vitoria, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2006. Fine particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) were tested as independent variables in simple and cumulative lags of up to five days. Temperature, humidity and variables indicating weekdays and city holidays were added as control variables in the models. RESULTS For each increment of 10 µg/m3 of the pollutants PM10, SO2, and O3, the percentage of relative risk (%RR) for hospitalizations due to total respiratory diseases increased 9.67 (95%CI 11.84-7.54), 6.98 (95%CI 9.98-4.17) and 1.93 (95%CI 2.95-0.93), respectively. We found %RR = 6.60 (95%CI 9.53-3.75), %RR = 5.19 (95%CI 9.01-1.5), and %RR = 3.68 (95%CI 5.07-2.31) for respiratory diseases in children under the age of five years for PM10, SO2, and O3, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases showed a significant relationship with O3, with %RR = 2.11 (95%CI 3.18-1.06). CONCLUSIONS Respiratory diseases presented a stronger and more consistent relationship with the pollutants researched in Vitoria. A better dose-response relationship was observed when using cumulative lags in polynomial distributed lag models.