The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Entre histoire et fiction: la représentation du règne d'Arthur dans le manuscrit enluminé du Brut en prose, Londres, Lambeth Palace 6 (c. 1480)

The manuscript London, Lambeth Palace 6, contains the Middle English prose Brut, a text which benefited from a great popularity throughout the fifteenth century. It was copied by an English scribe and richly illuminated by the Master of Edward IV and his assistants at Bruges around 1480. This article studies the representation and integration of the reign of Arthur in the historical framework of the Brut or Chronicles of England, including its fictional aspects: Arthur emerges as a historical character but also as a chivalric and mythical figure. The analysis covers the miniatures ranging from the plot leading to the conception of Arthur to the end of his reign (fols. 36-66). The textual and iconographic choices of the prose Bruts are highlighted by comparisons with Geoffrey of Monmouth’s Historia Regum Britanniae, Wace’s Brut, and later prose rewritings in the Lancelot-Grail romance cycle, especially Merlin and its Vulgate Sequel. They show the continuous interest raised by Arthur in the aristocratic and royal circles of late fifteenth century England and the relationship be¬tween continental and insular historiographical, literary and artistic traditions.

Near-earth cosmic ray decreases associated with remote coronal mass ejections

Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is modulated by both particle drift patterns and solar wind structures on a range of timescales. Over solar cycles, GCR flux varies as a function of the total open solar magnetic flux and the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet. Over hours, drops of a few percent in near-Earth GCR flux (Forbush decreases, FDs) are well known to be associated with the near-Earth passage of solar wind structures resulting from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and transient coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We report on four FDs seen at ground-based neutron monitors which cannot be immediately associated with significant structures in the local solar wind. Similarly, there are significant near-Earth structures which do not produce any corresponding GCR variation. Three of the FDs are during the STEREO era, enabling in situ and remote observations from three well-separated heliospheric locations. Extremely large CMEs passed the STEREO-A spacecraft, which was behind the West limb of the Sun, approximately 2–3 days before each near- Earth FD. Solar wind simulations suggest that the CMEs combined with pre-existing CIRs, enhancing the pre-existing barriers to GCR propagation. Thus these observations provide strong evidence for the modulation of GCR flux by remote solar wind structures.

Clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer: an ARM Mobile Facility Deployment

The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

Pregnancy-related low back pain and pelvic girdle pain approximately 14 months after pregnancy : pain status, self-rated health and family situation

Background: Pelvic girdle pain (PGP) in pregnancy is distinct from pregnancy-related low back pain (PLBP). However, women with combined PLBP and PGP report more serious consequences in terms of health and function. PGP has been estimated to affect about half of pregnant women, where 25% experience serious pain and 8% experience severe disability. To date there are relatively few studies regarding persistent PLBP/PGP postpartum of more than 3 months, thus the main objective was to identify the prevalence of persistent PLBP and PGP as well as the differences over time in regard to pain status, self-rated health (SRH) and family situation at 12 months postpartum. Methods: The study is a 12 month follow-up of a cohort of pregnant women developing PLBP and PGP during pregnancy, and who experienced persistent pain at 6 month follow-up after pregnancy. Women reporting PLBP/PGP (n = 639) during pregnancy were followed up with a second questionnaire at approximately six month after delivery. Women reporting recurrent or persistent LBP/PGP at the second questionnaire (n = 200) were sent a third questionnaire at 12 month postpartum. Results: A total of 176 women responded to the questionnaire. Thirty-four women (19.3%) reported remission of LBP/PGP, whereas 65.3% (n = 115) and 15.3% (n = 27), reported recurrent LBP/PGP or continuous LBP/PGP, respectively. The time between base line and the 12 months follow-up was in actuality 14 months. Women with previous LBP before pregnancy had an increased odds ratio (OR) of reporting 'recurrent pain' (OR = 2.47) or 'continuous pain' (OR = 3.35) postpartum compared to women who reported 'no pain' at the follow-up. Women with 'continuous pain' reported statistically significant higher level of pain at all measure points (0, 6 and 12 months postpartum). Non-responders were found to report a statistically significant less positive scoring regarding relationship satisfaction compared to responders. Conclusions: The results from this study demonstrate that persistent PLBP/PGP is a major individual and public health issue among women 14 months postpartum, negatively affecting their self-reported health. However, the perceived relationship satisfaction seems to be stable between the groups.

A ictiologia na Amazônia brasileira de Diogo Nunes (1538) a Landi (1772): a visão dos viajantes e naturalistas que trataram de sua ictiofauna durante este período

Este trabalho visou reunir e disponibilizar informações sobre a ictiofauna da Amazônia segundo vários escritos do século XVI ao XVII. Consultaram-se, fontes documentais de várias bibliotecas e arquivos, e dos documentos selecionados procedeu-se à identificação taxonômica das espécies neles referidas. Também se fizeram observações com base nas referências textuais e iconográficas disponíveis, de forma a acrescentar informações consideradas de relevância zoológica. Constatou-se que, devido à definição então vigente do conceito de "peixe", um estudo da ictiologia do período precisaria incluir também informações sobre espécies de outros táxons aquáticos que não agnatos, elasmobrânquios e teleósteos. No início do período colonial, a idéia de peixe era generalizada simplesmente como pescado, e não havia muita preocupação em inventariar a ictiofauna do Novo Mundo. Mais tarde, alguns dos visitantes da região puseram-se a descrever e ilustrar a ictiofauna de maneira mais específica: nessa fase em que se dava mais detalhamento às espécies de peixes destacavam-se o texto atribuído ao Fr. Cristóvão de Lisboa (1625- 1631), o códice do arquiteto Antonio Giuseppe Landi (1772) e principalmente o manuscrito do Pe. João Daniel (1758-1776) — o qual se revelou um pioneiro do movimento conservacionista da Amazônia. Os visitantes que vieram à região careciam, no geral, de formação acadêmica específica e, servindo a funções várias alheias à Ciência, não seguiam uma metodologia que se pudesse chamar de científica. Devido ao fato de seus manuscritos não terem sido divulgados ou sequer impressos, por vários motivos, o conhecimento neles produzido não foi cumulativo ou analítico, e não teve influência significativa no desenvolvimento da Ictiologia. Por outro lado, os naturalistas que efetivamente não estiveram na Amazônia puderam trazer uma contribuição de maior impacto, consolidando o conhecimento obtido através principalmente da obra de Georg Marcgrave (1648) e de exemplares coletados nas possessões holandesas da América do Sul, e incluindo-o num grande sistema classificatório que mais tarde despertaria o interesse de outros cientistas em conhecer a ictiofauna amazônica.

Observation of the rare B-s(0)->mu(+)mu(-) decay from the combined analysis of CMS and LHCb data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von Zielantigenen alloreaktiver zytotoxischer T-Zellen mittels cDNA-Bank-Expressionsklonierung in akuten myeloischen Leukämien

Allogene hämatopoetische Stammzelltransplantationen (HSZTs) werden insbesondere zur Behandlung von Patienten mit Hochrisiko-Leukämien durchgeführt. Dabei bewirken T-Zellreaktionen gegen Minorhistokompatibilitätsantigene (mHAgs) sowohl den therapeutisch erwünschten graft-versus-leukemia (GvL)-Effekt als auch die schädigende graft-versus-host (GvH)-Erkrankung. Für die Identifizierung neuer mHAgs mittels des T-Zell-basierten cDNA-Expressionsscreenings waren leukämiereaktive T-Zellpopulationen durch Stimulation naïver CD8+-T-Lymphozyten gesunder HLA-Klasse I-identischer Buffy Coat-Spender mit Leukämiezellen von Patienten mit akuter myeloischer Leukämie (AML) generiert worden (Albrecht et al., Cancer Immunol. Immunother. 60:235, 2011). Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde mit diesen im AML-Modell des Patienten MZ529 das mHAg CYBA-72Y identifiziert. Es resultiert aus einem bekannten Einzelnukleotidpolymorphismus (rs4673: CYBA-242T/C) des Gens CYBA (kodierend für Cytochrom b-245 α-Polypeptid; syn.: p22phox), der zu einem Austausch von Tyrosin (Y) zu Histidin (H) an Aminosäureposition 72 führt. Das mHAg wurde von T-Lymphozyten sowohl in Assoziation mit HLA-B*15:01 als auch mit HLA-B*15:07 erkannt. Eine allogene T-Zellantwort gegen CYBA-72Y wurde in einem weiteren AML-Modell (MZ987) beobachtet, die ebenso wie in dem AML-Modell MZ529 polyklonal war. Insgesamt konnte bei drei von fünf getesteten HLA-B*15:01-positiven Buffy Coat-Spendern, die homozygot für CYBA-72H (H/H) waren, eine CYBA-72Y-spezifische T-Zellantwort generiert werden. Das von den T-Lymphozyten übereinstimmend in niedrigster Konzentration erkannte Peptid umfasste die Aminosäuren 69 - 77, wobei das homologe Peptid aus CYBA-72H auch in hohen Konzentrationen keine Reaktivität auslöste. Eine reziproke Immunogenität des mHAg ist bislang nicht belegt. T-Lymphozyten gegen CYBA-72Y erkannten Leukämiezellen bei acht von zwölf HLA-B*15:01-positiven Patienten (FAB-Subtypen: M1, M2, M4, M5). Da das Gen CYBA für eine Komponente des mikrobiziden Oxidasesystems von phagozytierenden Zellen kodiert, ist es überwiegend in Zellen des hämatopoetischen Systems exprimiert. Von Leukozytensubtypen, aufgereinigt aus HLA-B*15:01-positiven Buffy Coat-Spendern mit CYBA-242T-Allel, wurden Monozyten und daraus abgeleitete dendritische Zellen durch CYBA-72Y-reaktive T-Lymphozyten sehr stark, untransformierte B-Zellen in weit geringerem Maße und Granulozyten sowie T-Lymphozyten nicht erkannt. Das für CYBA-72Y kodierende Allel CYBA-242T wurde bei 56% aller getesteten gesunden Spender und Malignompatienten (n=481) nachgewiesen. Unter Berücksichtigung der Häufigkeit des präsentierenden HLA-Allels ist davon auszugehen, dass etwa 4,5% der Kaukasier das mHAg CYBA-72Y zusammen mit HLA-B*15:01 tragen. Nach bisherigen Beobachtungen führt ein immunogener CYBA-72Y-Mismatch bei allogenen HSZTs nicht notwendigerweise zu einer schweren GvH-Erkrankung. Das hier beschriebene mHAg CYBA-72Y erscheint potenziell geeignet, im Rahmen einer allogenen HSZT die präferenzielle Elimination der Empfänger-Hämatopoese unter Einschluss von myeloischen Leukämiezellen zu bewirken. Jedoch sind weiterführende Untersuchungen erforderlich, um die therapeutische Relevanz des Antigens zu belegen.