992 resultados para Age-structured model
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Perception of self as a non-reader has been identified as one of the factors why poor readers disengage from the reading process (Strang, 1967; Rosow, 1992), thus impeding progress. Perception and informational processes influence judgments of personal efficacy (Bandura, 1997). The student's sense of reading efficacy that influence effort expenditure and ultimately achievement, is often overlooked (Athey, 1985; Pajares, 1996). Academic routines within educational programs are implemented without adequate information on whether routines promote or impede efficacy growth. Cross-age tutoring, a process known to improve participants' academic achievement, motivation, and provide opportunities for authentic reading practice, has been successfully incorporated into reading instruction designs (Allen, 1976; Cohen, Kulik & Kulik, 1982; Labbo & Teale, 1990; Riessman, 1993). This study investigated the impact teacher-designed routines within a cross-age tutoring model, have on the tutor's sense of reading self-efficacy. ^ The Reader Self-Perception Scale (Henk & Melnick, 1992) was administered, pre- and post-treatment, to 118 fifth grade students. Preceding the initial survey administration intact classes were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 commonly utilized cross-age tutoring routines or designated as the non-treatment population. The data derived from the Reader Self-Perception Scale was analyzed using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Results indicated that participation as a cross-age tutor does not significantly increase the tutor's perception of self as reader in 1 or more of the 4 modes of information influencing self-efficacy as compared to the non-treatment group. ^ The results of this study suggests that although a weekly tutoring session that delivers educationally credible routines impacts achievement and motivation, efficacy effect was not evident. Possible explanation and recommendations for future studies are proposed. ^
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The ICES Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberic waters Ecoregion (WGBIE) met in Copenhagen, Denmark during 13–14 May 2016. There were 22 stocks in its remit distributed from ICES Divisions 3.a–4.a though mostly distributed in Sub Areas 7, 8 and 9. There were 21 participants, some of whom joined the meeting re-motely. The group was tasked with conducting assessments of stock status for 22 stocks using analytical, forecast methods or trends indicators to provide catch forecasts for eight stocks and provide a first draft of the ICES advice for 2016 for fourteen stocks. For the remaining stocks, the group had to update catch information and indices of abundance where needed. Depending on the result of this update, namely if it would change the perception of the stock, the working group drafted new advice. Analytical assessments using age-structured models were conducted for the northern and southern stocks of megrim and the Bay of Biscay sole. The two hake stocks and one southern stock of anglerfish were assessed using models that allow the use of only length-structured data (no age data). A surplus-production model, without age or length structure, was used to assess the second southern stocks of anglerfish. No ana-lytical assessments have been provided for the northern stocks of anglerfish after 2006. This is mostly due to ageing problems and to an increase in discards in recent years, for which there is no reliable data at the stock level. The state of stocks for which no analytical assessment could be performed was inferred from examination of commer-cial LPUE or CPUE data and from survey information. Three nephrops stocks from the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian waters are scheduled for benchmark assessments in October 2016. The WGBIE meeting spent some time review-ing the progress towards the benchmark (see Annex 6) together with longer term benchmarks (2017 and after, see section 1.) for sea bass in the Bay of Biscay, all an-glerfish and hake stocks assessed by the WG. For the northern megrim stock, the sched-ule an inter-benchmark meeting was completed successfully and the group reviewed the outcome and accepted the category 1 update assessment. A recurrent issue significantly constrained the group’s ability to address the terms of reference this year. Despite an ICES data call with a deadline of six weeks before the meeting, data for several stocks were resubmitted during the meeting which lead to increased workloads during the working group, as in that case, the assessments could not be carried out in National Laboratories prior to the meeting as mentioned in the ToRs. This is an important matter of concerns for the group members. Section 1 of the report presents a summary by stock and discusses general issues. Sec-tion 2 provides descriptions of the relevant fishing fleets and surveys used in the as-sessment of the stocks. Sections 3–18 contains the single stock assessments.
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OBJECTIVES To evaluate the histological alterations of extracellular matrix in long-term alloxan-induced diabetes and aging urethras of male rats with descriptions of total connective tissue, muscle layer and collagen types I and III relative amounts. METHODS Histologic evaluations were performed in 3 animal groups: group 1, 8 weeks old; group 2, 44 weeks old; and group 3, 44 weeks old with alloxan-induced diabetes. The muscle layer thickness, extracellular matrix fibrosis, and collagen were quantified on digital images of the urethral samples. RESULTS A higher total thickness and muscle layer thickness and higher connective tissue and collagen content were observed in the urethras of group 3. No changes in the collagen type III/I ratio were found in the urethra of groups 2 and 3. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the morphologic alterations of the urethra should also be considered in long-term studies of diabetic lower urinary tract dysfunction. These morphologic alterations due to diabetes differ from the changes induced by aging itself and could represent a final stage in decompensate urethras. Further studies are necessary to establish the real influence of the urethral morphologic changes on lower urinary tract diabetes dysfunction. UROLOGY 77: 510.e6-510.e11, 2011. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc.
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European Cetacean Society Conference Workshop, Galway, Ireland, 25th March 2012.
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OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.
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Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.
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An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.
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Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Empresariais
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Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
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Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
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Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
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Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
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The human connectome represents a network map of the brain's wiring diagram and the pattern into which its connections are organized is thought to play an important role in cognitive function. The generative rules that shape the topology of the human connectome remain incompletely understood. Earlier work in model organisms has suggested that wiring rules based on geometric relationships (distance) can account for many but likely not all topological features. Here we systematically explore a family of generative models of the human connectome that yield synthetic networks designed according to different wiring rules combining geometric and a broad range of topological factors. We find that a combination of geometric constraints with a homophilic attachment mechanism can create synthetic networks that closely match many topological characteristics of individual human connectomes, including features that were not included in the optimization of the generative model itself. We use these models to investigate a lifespan dataset and show that, with age, the model parameters undergo progressive changes, suggesting a rebalancing of the generative factors underlying the connectome across the lifespan.
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Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques.
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Re-introduction is a technique widely used in the conservation of threatened bird species. With advances in aviculture the use of captive-produced individuals as the release stock is becoming more commonplace, and ideally, survival of captive-produced, released individuals should be no different from their wild-bred counterparts. During the late 1980s the Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) was successfully re-introduced into the Bambous mountain range, Mauritius, some 30 years after its local extinction. Between 1987 and 2001 the developing population was closely monitored enabling us to construct re-sighting histories for 88 released and 284 wild-bred kestrels. We used age-structured models in the survival analysis software program MARK to determine if an individual's origin influenced its subsequent survival. Our analysis indicated no compelling evidence for reduced survival among juvenile captive-reared and released individuals, relative to their wild-bred counterparts, across the majority of cohorts and only limited evidence of a cohort-specific effect. This study illustrates that despite the lack of a formal experimental approach it is still feasible to conduct an assessment of re-introduction outcomes and techniques. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.