Screening for Rheumatic Heart Disease among Peruvian Children: A Two-Stage Sampling Observational Study.

BACKGROUND The objective of the study was to evaluate the implications of different classifications of rheumatic heart disease on estimated prevalence, and to systematically assess the importance of incidental findings from echocardiographic screening among schoolchildren in Peru. METHODS We performed a cluster randomized observational survey using portable echocardiography among schoolchildren aged 5 to 16 years from randomly selected public and private schools in Arequipa, Peru. Rheumatic heart disease was defined according to the modified World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and the World Heart Federation (WHF) criteria. FINDINGS Among 1395 eligible students from 40 classes and 20 schools, 1023 (73%) participated in the present survey. The median age of the children was 11 years (interquartile range [IQR] 8-13 years) and 50% were girls. Prevalence of possible, probable and definite rheumatic heart disease according to the modified WHO criteria amounted to 19.7/1000 children and ranged from 10.2/1000 among children 5 to 8 years of age to 39.8/1000 among children 13 to 16 years of age; the prevalence of borderline/definite rheumatic heart disease according to the WHF criteria was 3.9/1000 children. 21 children (2.1%) were found to have congenital heart disease, 8 of which were referred for percutaneous or surgical intervention. CONCLUSIONS Prevalence of RHD in Peru was considerably lower compared to endemic regions in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania; and paralleled by a comparable number of undetected congenital heart disease. Strategies to address collateral findings from echocardiographic screening are necessary in the setup of active surveillance programs for RHD. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02353663.

Dengue risk factor distribution in Harris County, Texas

As an important emerging arboviral disease in Texas and throughout the world, dengue fever has the potential to make a re-emergence in the Harris County/Houston metropolitan area. Harris County has seen dengue epidemics in the past. The area has a competent vector, Aedes aegypti, capable of transmission of the virus should it be introduced. It is important to examine areas of highest risk for dengue emergence and transmission in Harris County so that surveillance and educational programs can be properly implemented. This study uses mapping software to visually represent risk factor information with areas of known Ae. aegypti populations. This study focused on known demographic risk factors such as race/ethnicity, place of birth, gender as well as socioeconomic status represented by educational attainment and income. This study found that there are several areas, particularly in central Harris County that are at particular risk for dengue transmission. The findings support the hypothesis that in areas of lower socioeconomic status there were increased populations of foreign born populations, Hispanic populations, and identified locations of a competent vector present. These findings suggest that more specific surveillance of Ae. aegypti, testing of the mosquitoes for dengue virus, and active surveillance for human cases should be implemented in these areas. ^

The role of workplace absence as an organizational mechanism in predicting employee alcohol and drug disorders

Background. EAP programs for airline pilots in companies with a well developed recovery management program are known to reduce pilot absenteeism following treatment. Given the costs and safety consequences to society, it is important to identify pilots who may be experiencing an AOD disorder to get them into treatment. ^ Hypotheses. This study investigated the predictive power of workplace absenteeism in identifying alcohol or drug disorders (AOD). The first hypothesis was that higher absenteeism in a 12-month period is associated with higher risk that an employee is experiencing AOD. The second hypothesis was that AOD treatment would reduce subsequent absence rates and the costs of replacing pilots on missed flights. ^ Methods. A case control design using eight years (time period) of monthly archival absence data (53,000 pay records) was conducted with a sample of (N = 76) employees having an AOD diagnosis (cases) matched 1:4 with (N = 304) non-diagnosed employees (controls) of the same profession and company (male commercial airline pilots). Cases and controls were matched on the variables age, rank and date of hire. Absence rate was defined as sick time hours used over the sum of the minimum guarantee pay hours annualized using the months the pilot worked for the year. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine if absence predicts employees experiencing an AOD disorder, starting 3 years prior to the cases receiving the AOD diagnosis. A repeated measures ANOVA, t tests and rate ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) were conducted to determine differences between cases and controls in absence usage for 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment. Mean replacement costs were calculated for sick leave usage 3 years pre and 5 years post treatment to estimate the cost of sick leave from the perspective of the company. ^ Results. Sick leave, as measured by absence rate, predicted the risk of being diagnosed with an AOD disorder (OR 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.15) during the 12 months prior to receiving the diagnosis. Mean absence rates for diagnosed employees increased over the three years before treatment, particularly in the year before treatment, whereas the controls’ did not (three years, x = 6.80 vs. 5.52; two years, x = 7.81 vs. 6.30, and one year, x = 11.00cases vs. 5.51controls. In the first year post treatment compared to the year prior to treatment, rate ratios indicated a significant (60%) post treatment reduction in absence rates (OR = 0.40, CI = 0.28, 0.57). Absence rates for cases remained lower than controls for the first three years after completion of treatment. Upon discharge from the FAA and company’s three year AOD monitoring program, case’s absence rates increased slightly during the fourth year (controls, x = 0.09, SD = 0.14, cases, x = 0.12, SD = 0.21). However, the following year, their mean absence rates were again below those of the controls (controls, x = 0.08, SD = 0.12, cases, x¯ = 0.06, SD = 0.07). Significant reductions in costs associated with replacing pilots calling in sick, were found to be 60% less, between the year of diagnosis for the cases and the first year after returning to work. A reduction in replacement costs continued over the next two years for the treated employees. ^ Conclusions. This research demonstrates the potential for workplace absences as an active organizational surveillance mechanism to assist managers and supervisors in identifying employees who may be experiencing or at risk of experiencing an alcohol/drug disorder. Currently, many workplaces use only performance problems and ignore the employee’s absence record. A referral to an EAP or alcohol/drug evaluation based on the employee’s absence/sick leave record as incorporated into company policy can provide another useful indicator that may also carry less stigma, thus reducing barriers to seeking help. This research also confirms two conclusions heretofore based only on cross-sectional studies: (1) higher absence rates are associated with employees experiencing an AOD disorder; (2) treatment is associated with lower costs for replacing absent pilots. Due to the uniqueness of the employee population studied (commercial airline pilots) and the organizational documentation of absence, the generalizability of this study to other professions and occupations should be considered limited. ^ Transition to Practice. The odds ratios for the relationship between absence rates and an AOD diagnosis are precise; the OR for year of diagnosis indicates the likelihood of being diagnosed increases 10% for every hour change in sick leave taken. In practice, however, a pilot uses approximately 20 hours of sick leave for one trip, because the replacement will have to be paid the guaranteed minimum of 20 hour. Thus, the rate based on hourly changes is precise but not practical. ^ To provide the organization with practical recommendations the yearly mean absence rates were used. A pilot flies on average, 90 hours a month, 1080 annually. Cases used almost twice the mean rate of sick time the year prior to diagnosis (T-1) compared to controls (cases, x = .11, controls, x = .06). Cases are expected to use on average 119 hours annually (total annual hours*mean annual absence rate), while controls will use 60 hours. The cases’ 60 hours could translate to 3 trips of 20 hours each. Management could use a standard of 80 hours or more of sick time claimed in a year as the threshold for unacceptable absence, a 25% increase over the controls (a cost to the company of approximately of $4000). At the 80-hour mark, the Chief Pilot would be able to call the pilot in for a routine check as to the nature of the pilot’s excessive absence. This management action would be based on a company standard, rather than a behavioral or performance issue. Using absence data in this fashion would make it an active surveillance mechanism. ^

Nosocomial infections and their relationship to non-traditional risk factors in a medical intensive care unit

Background. Nosocomial infections are a source of concern for many hospitals in the United States and worldwide. These infections are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and hospital costs. Nosocomial infections occur in ICUs at a rate which is five times greater than those in general wards. Understanding the reasons for the higher rates can ultimately help reduce these infections. The literature has been weak in documenting a direct relationship between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors, such as unit staffing or patient acuity.^ Objective. To examine the relationship, if any, between nosocomial infections and non-traditional risk factors. The potential non-traditional risk factors we studied were the patient acuity (which comprised of the mortality and illness rating of the patient), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU, and the patient to nurse ratio.^ Method. We conducted a secondary data analysis on patients hospitalized in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of the Memorial Hermann- Texas Medical Center in Houston during the months of March 2008- May 2009. The average monthly values for the patient acuity (mortality and illness Diagnostic Related Group (DRG) scores), patient days for patients hospitalized in the ICU and average patient to nurse ratio were calculated during this time period. Active surveillance of Bloodstream Infections (BSIs), Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) and Ventilator Associated Pneumonias (VAPs) was performed by Infection Control practitioners, who visited the MICU and performed a personal infection record for each patient. Spearman's rank correlation was performed to determine the relationship between these nosocomial infections and the non-traditional risk factors.^ Results. We found weak negative correlations between BSIs and two measures (illness and mortality DRG). We also found a weak negative correlation between UTI and unit staffing (patient to nurse ratio). The strongest positive correlation was found between illness DRG and mortality DRG, validating our methodology.^ Conclusion. From this analysis, we were able to infer that non-traditional risk factors do not appear to play a significant role in transmission of infection in the units we evaluated.^

Shigellosis in Hidalgo County, Texas 2005--2009: A descriptive study

Shigellosis is a communicable disease harbored primarily by humans. The low infective dose, no vaccine availability, and mild or asymptomatic nature of disease has prevented eradication of Shigella in the United States. In addition, the lack of water and sewage infrastructures which normally contribute to the spread of disease in developing countries, for the most part, is a non-issue in the U.S. making surveillance and risk factor identification important prevention and control measures utilized to reduce the incidence rates of Shigellosis.^ The purpose of this study was to describe the Shigellosis disease burden among the Hidalgo County, Texas population during the 2005-2009 study period and compare these findings with national data available. The potential identification and publication of a health disparity in the form of increased Shigellosis rates among Hidalgo County residents when compared to national rates, especially age-specific rates, are intended to generate public health attention and public health action that will address this issue.^ There were 1,007 confirmed Shigellosis cases reported in Hidalgo County, Texas. An overwhelming majority (79%) of the Shigellosis cases during this time frame occurred in children less than ten years of age. Over the age of 10 through the age of 39, females constituted the majority of cases. Age-specific rates for children four years of age and younger were compared to national rates. The rates for Hidalgo County were higher at 9.2 and 1.8 cases for every one case reported nationally in 2005 and 2006, respectively. The total crude rates of Shigellosis were also higher than the rates available from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) of CDC’s Emerging Infections Program from 2005-2009. As a result, compared to the FoodNet surveillance rates, Hidalgo County experienced above average rates of Shigellosis throughout the study period. The majority of cases were identified in young children under the age of ten.^ The information gathered in this analysis could be used to implement and monitor infection control measures such as hand washing education at facilities that tend to the groups identified at higher risk of infection. In addition, the higher burden of disease found in Hidalgo County requires further study to determine if there are factors associated with an increased risk of Shigellosis in this community and other border communities along the U.S.-Mexico border exist.^

The epidemiology of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction defects in Texas, 2002-2008: An update and assessment of effect heterogeneity

Left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) defects are an important group of congenital heart defects (CHDs) because of their associated mortality and long-term complications. LVOT defects include aortic valve stenosis (AVS), coarctation of aorta (CoA), and hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS). Despite their clinical significance, their etiology is not completely understood. Even though the individual component phenotypes (AVS, CoA, and HLHS) may have different etiologies, they are often "lumped" together in epidemiological studies. Though "lumping" of component phenotypes may improve the power to detect associations, it may also lead to ambiguous findings if these defects are etiologically distinct. This is due to potential for effect heterogeneity across component phenotypes. ^ This study had two aims: (1) to identify the association between various risk factors and both the component (i.e., split) and composite (i.e., lumped) LVOT phenotypes, and (2) to assess the effect heterogeneity of risk factors across component phenotypes of LVOT defects. ^ This study was a secondary data analysis. Primary data were obtained from the Texas Birth Defect Registry (TBDR). TBDR uses an active surveillance method to ascertain birth defects in Texas. All cases of non complex LVOT defects which met our inclusion criteria during the period of 2002–2008 were included in the study. The comparison groups included all unaffected live births for the same period (2002–2008). Data from vital statistics were used to evaluate associations. Statistical associations between selected risk factors and LVOT defects was determined by calculating crude and adjusted prevalence ratio using Poisson regression analysis. Effect heterogeneity was evaluated using polytomous logistic regression. ^ There were a total of 2,353 cases of LVOT defects among 2,730,035 live births during the study period. There were a total of 1,311 definite cases of non-complex LVOT defects for analysis after excluding "complex" cardiac cases and cases associated with syndromes (n=168). Among infant characteristics, males were at a significantly higher risk of developing LVOT defects compared to females. Among maternal characteristics, significant associations were seen with maternal age > 40 years (compared to maternal age 20–24 years) and maternal residence in Texas-Mexico border (compared to non-border residence). Among birth characteristics, significant associations were seen with preterm birth and small for gestation age LVOT defects. ^ When evaluating effect heterogeneity, the following variables had significantly different effects among the component LVOT defect phenotypes: infant sex, plurality, maternal age, maternal race/ethnicity, and Texas-Mexico border residence. ^ This study found significant associations between various demographic factors and LVOT defects. While many findings from this study were consistent with results from previous studies, we also identified new factors associated with LVOT defects. Additionally, this study was the first to assess effect heterogeneity across LVOT defect component phenotypes. These findings contribute to a growing body of literature on characteristics associated with LVOT defects. ^

Dengue transmission risk maps of the continental United States

Dengue fever is a strictly human and non-human primate disease characterized by a high fever, thrombocytopenia, retro-orbital pain, and severe joint and muscle pain. Over 40% of the world population is at risk. Recent re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Texas and Florida following the re-introduction of competent Aedes mosquito vectors in the United States have raised growing concerns about the potential for increased occurrences of dengue fever outbreaks throughout the southern United States. Current deficiencies in vector control, active surveillance and awareness among medical practitioners may contribute to a delay in recognizing and controlling a dengue virus outbreak. Previous studies have shown links between low-income census tracts, high population density, and dengue fever within the United States. Areas of low-income and high population density that correlate with the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes result in higher potential for outbreaks. In this retrospective ecologic study, nine maps were generated to model U.S. census tracts’ potential to sustain dengue virus transmission if the virus was introduced into the area. Variables in the model included presence of a competent vector in the county and census tract percent poverty and population density. Thirty states, 1,188 counties, and 34,705 census tracts were included in the analysis. Among counties with Aedes mosquito infestation, the census tracts were ranked high, medium, and low risk potential for sustained transmission of the virus. High risk census tracts were identified as areas having the vector, ≥20% poverty, and ≥500 persons per square mile. Census tracts with either ≥20% poverty or ≥500 persons per square mile and have the vector present are considered moderate risk. Census tracts that have the vector present but have <20% poverty and <500 persons per square mile are considered low risk. Furthermore, counties were characterized as moderate risk if 50% or more of the census tracts in that county were rated high or moderate risk, and high risk if 25% or greater were rated high risk. Extreme risk counties, which were primarily concentrated in Texas and Mississippi, were considered having 50% or greater of the census tracts ranked as high risk. Mapping of geographic areas with potential to sustain dengue virus transmission will support surveillance efforts and assist medical personnel in recognizing potential cases. ^

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil

EMOND, Alan et al. The effectiveness of community-based interventions to improve maternal and infant health in the Northeast of Brazil. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública/ Pan American Journal of Public Health , v.12, n.2, p.101-110, 2002

Birth defects in South Carolina

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality. Additionally, babies born with birth defects who survive infancy have a greater chance of illness and long term disability than babies without birth defects. The causes can involve genetic (such as chromosomal anomalies) or environmental (such as lead exposure during pregnancy) factors, or a combination of these factors. However, in about 70 percent of cases of birth defects, the causes are unknown. The South Carolina Birth Defects Program began in July 2006 after passage of the S.C. Birth Defects Act. This law mandates active surveillance of major structural birth defects identified prenatally through age two. South Carolina monitors over 50 birth defects recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Birth Defects Prevention Network.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on bone status, glucose homeostasis and immune function in children with vitamin D deficiency

Background: Between 1961-1971 vitamin D deficiency was recognized as a public health issue in the UK, because of the lack of effective sunlight and the population mix [1, 2]. In recent years, health care professionals have cited evidence suggesting a re-emergence of the vitamin D deficiency linked to a number of health consequences as a concern [3-6]. Evidence from observational studies has linked low vitamin D status with impairment in glucose homeostasis and immune dysfunction [7-9]. However, interventional studies, particularly those focused on paediatric populations, have been limited and inconsistent. There is a need for detailed studies, to clarify the therapeutic benefits of vitamin D in these important clinical areas. Objective: The aims of this PhD thesis were two-fold. Firstly, to perform preliminary work assessing the association between vitamin D deficiency and bone status, glucose homeostasis and immune function, and to explore any changes in these parameters following short term vitamin D3 replacement therapy. Secondly, to assess the effectiveness of an electronic surveillance system (ScotPSU) as a tool to determine the current incidence of hospital-based presentation of childhood vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Methods: Active surveillance was performed for a period of two years as a part of an electronic web-based surveillance programme performed by the Scottish Paediatric Surveillance Unit (ScotPSU). The validity of the system was assessed by identifying cases with profound vitamin D deficiency (in Glasgow and Edinburgh) from the regional laboratory. All clinical details were checked against those identified using the surveillance system. Thirty-seven children aged 3 months to 10 years, who had been diagnosed with vitamin D deficiency, were recruited for the bone, glucose and immunity studies over a period of 24 months. Twenty-five samples were analysed for the glucose and bone studies; of these, 18 samples were further analysed for immune study. Treatment consisted of six weeks taking 5000 IU units cholecalciferol orally once a day. At baseline and after completion of treatment, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), parathyroid hormone (PTH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), collagen type 1 cross-linked C-telopeptide (CTX), osteocalcin (OCN), calcium, phosphate, insulin, glucose, homeostasis model assessment index, estimated insulin resistance (HOMA IR), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), lipids profiles, T helper 1 (Th1) cytokines (interleukin-2 ( IL-2), tumor necrosis factors-alpha (TNF-α), interferon-gamma (INF-γ)), T helper 2 (Th2) cytokines (interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-5 (IL-5), interleukin-6 (IL-6)), T helper 17 (Th17) cytokine (interleukin-17 (IL-17)), Regulatory T (Treg) cytokine (interleukin-10 (IL-10)) and chemokines/cytokines, linked with Th1/Th2 subset balance and/or differentiation (interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-12 (IL-12), eosinophil chemotactic protein ( EOTAXIN), macrophage inflammatory proteins-1beta (MIP-1β), interferon-gamma-induced protein-10 (IP-10), regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1)) were measured. Leukoocyte subset analysis was performed for T cells, B cells and T regulatory cells and a luminex assay was used to measure the cytokiens. Results: Between September 2009 and August 2011, 163 cases of vitamin D deficiency were brought to the attention of the ScotPSU, and the majority of cases (n = 82) were reported in Glasgow. The cross-validation checking in Glasgow and Edinburgh over a one-year period revealed only 3 (11%) cases of clearly symptomatic vitamin D deficiency, which had been missed by the ScotPSU survey in Glasgow. While 16 (67%) symptomatic cases had failed to be reported through the ScotPSU survey in Edinburgh. For the 23 children who are included in bone and glucose studies, 22 (96%) children had basal serum 25(OH)D in the deficiency range (< 50 nmol/l) and one (4%) child had serum 25(OH)D in the insufficiency range (51-75 nmol/l). Following vitamin D3 treatment, 2 (9%) children had final serum 25(OH)D lower than 50 nmol/l, 6 (26%) children had final serum 25(OH)D between >50-75 nmol/l, 12 (52%) children reached a final serum 25(OH)D >75-150 nmol/l and finally 3 (13%) exceeded the normal reference range with a final 25(OH)D >150 nmol/l. Markers for remodelling ALP and PTH had significantly decreased (p = 0.001 and <0.0001 for ALP and PTH respectively). In 17 patients for whom insulin and HOMA IR data were available and enrolled in glucose study, significant improvements in insulin resistance (p = 0.04) with a trend toward a reduction in serum insulin (p = 0.05) was observed. Of those 14 children who had their cytokines profile data analysed and enrolled in the immunity study, insulin and HOMA IR data were missed in one child. A significant increase in the main Th2 secreted cytokine IL-4 (p = 0.001) and a tendency for significant increases in other Th2 secreted cytokines IL-5 (p = 0.05) and IL-6 (p = 0.05) was observed following vitamin D3 supplementation. Conclusion: An electronic surveillance system can provide data for studying the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. However, it may underestimate the number of positive cases. Improving vitamin D status in vitamin D deficient otherwise healthy children significantly improved their vitamin D deficient status, and was associated with an improvement in bone profile, improvements in insulin resistance and an alteration in main Th2 secreting cytokines.

South Carolina Birth Defects Program

The South Carolina Birth Defects Program began in July 2006 after passage of the SC Birth Defects Act. This law mandates active surveillance of major birth defects identified before birth through age 2. South Carolina monitors over 50 birth defects recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Birth Defects Prevention Network. The most common birth defects in South Carolina in 2014 were: 1. Ventricular Septal Defect 2. Down Syndrome 3. Pulmonary Valve Atresia and Stenosis 4. Obstructive Genitourinary Defect.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Are Active Australia physical activity questions valid for older adults?

Objective The Active Australia Survey (AAS) is used for physical activity (PA) surveillance in the general Australian adult population, but its validity in older adults has not been evaluated. Our aim was to examine the convergent validity of the AAS questions in older adults. Design The AAS was validated against pedometer step counts as an objective measure of PA, self-reported physical function, and a step-test to assess cardiorespiratory fitness. Method Participants were community-dwelling adults, aged 65-89 y, with the ability to walk 100 m. They completed a self-administered AAS and the step-test in one interview. One week earlier, they completed the Short Form-36 physical function subscale. Between these two interviews, they each wore a YAMAX Digiwalker SW200 pedometer and recorded daily steps. Using the AAS data, daily walking minutes and total PA minutes (walking, moderate-intensity PA and vigorous-intensity PA) were compared with the validity measures using Spearman rank-order correlations. Fifty-three adults completed the study. Results Median daily walking minutes were 34.2 (interquartile range [IQR] 17.1, 60.0), and median daily total PA minutes were 68.6 (IQR 31.4, 113.6). Walking and total PA minutes were both moderately correlated with pedometer steps (Spearman correlation r=0.42, p=0.003, for each) but not with step-test seconds to completion (r=-0.11, p=0.44; r=-0.25, p=0.08, respectively). Total PA minutes were significantly correlated with physical function scores (r=0.39, p=0.004), but walking minutes were not (r=0.15, p=0.29). Conclusions This initial examination of the psychometric properties of the AAS for older adults suggests that this surveillance tool has acceptable convergent validity for ambulatory, community-dwelling older adults.

How do older adults respond to Active Australia physical activity questions? Lessons from cognitive interviews

The aim of this study was to examine older adults’ understanding and interpretation of a validated questionnaire for physical activity surveillance, the Active Australia Survey (AAS). To address this aim, cognitive interviewing techniques were used during face-to-face semi-structured interviews with 44 adults aged 65-89 years. Qualitative data analysis revealed that participants were confused with questionnaire phrasing, misunderstood the scope of activities to include in answers, and misunderstood the time frame of activities to report. They also struggled to accurately estimate the frequency and duration of their activities. Our findings suggest that AAS questions may be interpreted differently by older adults than intended by survey developers. Findings also suggest that older adults use a range of methods for calculating PA frequency and duration. The issues revealed in this study may be useful for adapting AAS for use in older community-dwelling adults.