Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996-2007

Background: While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–99, 2000–2003 and 2004–2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia). Methods: All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson’s Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders. Results: Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time. Conclusions: Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth.

Role of smoking in global and regional cardiovascular mortality

Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.

Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Pacific and South-East Asian regions

Background: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. Objective: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. Design and subjects: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the,600 000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. Results: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from < 1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from < 1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and < 1-22% in females. Conclusions: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

Hypothermia And Early Neonatal Mortality In Preterm Infants.

To evaluate intervention practices associated with hypothermia at both 5 minutes after birth and at neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission and to determine whether hypothermia at NICU admission is associated with early neonatal death in preterm infants. This prospective cohort included 1764 inborn neonates of 22-33 weeks without malformations admitted to 9 university NICUs from August 2010 through April 2012. All centers followed neonatal International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation recommendations for the stabilization and resuscitation in the delivery room (DR). Variables associated with hypothermia (axillary temperature <36.0 °C) 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission, as well as those associated with early death, were analyzed by logistic regression. Hypothermia 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission was noted in 44% and 51%, respectively, with 6% of early neonatal deaths. Adjusted for confounding variables, practices associated with hypothermia at 5 minutes after birth were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.67-2.28), maternal temperature at delivery <36.0 °C (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.49-2.51), and use of plastic bag/wrap (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.40-0.70). The variables associated with hypothermia at NICU admission were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.88), respiratory support with cold air in the DR (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.88) and during transport to NICU (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08-2.13), and cap use (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.78). Hypothermia at NICU admission increased the chance of early neonatal death by 1.64-fold (95% CI 1.03-2.61). Simple interventions, such as maintaining DR temperature >25 °C, reducing maternal hypothermia prior to delivery, providing plastic bags/wraps and caps for the newly born infants, and using warm resuscitation gases, may decrease hypothermia at NICU admission and improve early neonatal survival.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.

Insect mortality in Spathodea campanulata Beauv. (Bignoniaceae) flowers

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Association of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides with mortality in patients with heart failure

It has been demonstrated that there is an association between serum lipoproteins and survival rate in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as in patients with non-ischemic causes of heart failure. We tested the hypothesis of an association between serum lipoprotein levels and prognosis in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure, including Chagas' heart disease. The lipid profile of 833 outpatients with heart failure in functional classes III and IV of the New York Heart Association, with a mean age of 46.9 ± 10.6 years, 655 (78.6%) men and 178 (21.4%) women, was studied from April 1991 to June 2003. The survival rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meyer's method and the Cox proportional hazards models. Etiology of heart failure was ischemic cardiomyopathy in 171 (21%) patients, Chagas' heart disease in 144 (17%), hypertensive cardiomyopathy in 136 (16%), and other etiologies in 83 (10%). In 299 (36%) patients, heart failure was ascribed to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Variables significantly associated with mortality were age (hazard ratio, HR = 1.02; 95%CI = 1.01-1.03; P = 0.0074), male gender (HR = 1.77; 95%CI = 1.2-2.62; P = 0.004), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (HR = 1.81; 95%CI = 1.16-2.82; P = 0.0085), serum triglycerides (HR = 0.97; 95%CI = 0.96-0.98; P < 0.0001), and HDL cholesterol (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.99-1.0; P = 0.0280). Therefore, higher serum HDL cholesterol and higher serum triglycerides were associated with lower mortality in this cohort of outpatients with heart failure.

Growth parameters and mortality rate of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Jordán & Hubb, 1925) along the Peruvian coast, South Pacific

The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly's method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.

Mortality due to systemic mycoses as a primary cause of death or in association with AIDS in Brazil: a review from 1996 to 2006

Deaths caused by systemic mycoses such as paracoccidioidomycosis, cryptococcosis, histoplasmosis, candidiasis, aspergillosis, coccidioidomycosis and zygomycosis amounted to 3,583 between 1996-2006 in Brazil. When analysed as the underlying cause of death, paracoccidioidomycosis represented the most important cause of deaths among systemic mycoses (~ 51.2%). When considering AIDS as the underlying cause of death and the systemic mycoses as associated conditions, cryptococcosis (50.9%) appeared at the top of the list, followed by candidiasis (30.2%), histoplasmosis (10.1%) and others. This mortality analysis is useful in understanding the real situation of systemic mycoses in Brazil, since there is no mandatory notification of patients diagnosed with systemic mycoses in the official health system.

Time trends and predictors of mortality from ill-defined causes in old age: 9 year folllow-up of the Bambuí cohort study (Brazil)

The study objective was to examine differentials in time trends and predictors of deaths assigned to symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions in comparison with other ill-defined conditions (ill-defined cardiovascular diseases, cancer and injury) in a population-based cohort study. Of 1,606 baseline participants aged 60 years and over, 524 died during 9-year follow-up and were included in this study. Deaths coded to "symptoms" declined by 77% in the period from 1997-1999 to 2003-2005. Deaths coded to other ill-defined conditions remained unchanged. The calendar period 2003-2005 (RR = 0.25; 95%CI: 0.09-0.70) and in-hospital deaths (RR = 0.16; 95%CI: 0.08-0.34) were independently associated with "symptoms", but not with other ill-defined conditions. Baseline socio-demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were not predictors of these outcomes. International and national agencies have focused on the reduction of deaths assigned to "symptoms" to improve the registration of vital statistics, while other ill-defined conditions have received little attention. Our data provide evidence supporting the need to redress this situation.