Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

Orderly book, Second Regiment of U.S. Dragoons, New York, 1812-1813

The Second U.S. Regiment of Light Dragoons was formed in January 1812. In March of 1814, it merged with the First U.S. Regiment of Light Dragoons to form the Regiment of Light Dragoons.

Orderly book, Second Regiment of U.S. Dragoons, New York, 1812-1813

An orderly book of the Second Regiment of U.S. Dragoons, New York, dated August 14, 1812-July 29, 1813. The book contains orders pertaining to day-to-day military matters, such as punishments for disobedience, court-martial proceedings, camp rules and regulations, and guidelines for interacting with civilians in the vicinity of the camp. The Regiment was stationed at various locations in upstate New York and Canada, including Greenbush, Albany, Sackets Harbor, Utica, Geneva, Fort Niagara and Fort George. General Henry Dearborn originally commanded the Regiment at Greenbush. Names noted in this book include:E. Beebe, Deputy Adjt. General; William King, Capt. 15th; John Chandler, General ;W. Gamewood, Major ;James Burns, Colonel;John Woodford, Major; Andrew McDowell, Capt.; Abm. Gustis, Major; C.W. Hunter, Brigade Major; Selden, Captain; Holland, Captain; Harris, Captain; Clarkson, Lieutenant; Johnson, Lieutenant; Robert Craig, Adjt.; R.G. Hith, A.A. General. Also included with the orderly book are a monthly return form, a contract for medical services, and a bonus pay voucher for Thomas Blunt. The monthly return form is partially completed and dated January 1813 at Greenbush, New York. It is signed by Captain Jonas Holland. The contract is dated May 20, 1812, between John Dodge, physician and surgeon, and Jonas Holland. The contract describes the services required of the physician and the salary to be paid. The bonus pay voucher is dated April 25, 1813, for $8.00 paid to Thomas Blunt by Captain Jonas Holland for 'enlisting into the army of the United States for five years'.

Análisis del Dilema de Seguridad entre Estados Unidos y la Federación Rusa a partir del control de la carrera armamentista. Periodo: 1991 - 2010

La aparición de las armas nucleares hacia los años ’40 ha cambiado la forma en que ciertos Estados desarrollan sus relaciones bilaterales en materia de seguridad, debido a que la obtención de estas garantiza capacidad militar que no se tiene con las armas de carácter convencional. Tanto Estados Unidos como la Unión Soviética procuraron la producción de las armas nucleares a gran escala, lo cual conllevó a la consolidación de una carrera armamentista entre ambos que fue regulada por tratados bilaterales: esta situación generó un Dilema de Seguridad entre ambos Estados. Con la disolución de la Unión Soviética y el surgimiento de la Federación Rusa en el inicio de la década del ’90, el Sistema Internacional que se había configurado durante la Guerra Fría se alteró debido a que, si bien se había acabado el conflicto que existía en el periodo bipolar, aún existían las armas nucleares con las que se garantizaba la continuación del Dilema de Seguridad que había surgido en los años anteriores. Con la presente monografía pretende analizar el Dilema de Seguridad durante el periodo comprendido entre 1991 y 2010 entre Estados Unidos y la Federación Rusa.

Análisis del proceso de reclamos para clientes de la unidad de Negocio de Salón Profesional de Procter & Gamble Latinoamérica

Las decisiones en el mundo empresarial se basan en el supuesto de la existencia de recursos limitados. Sin importar el tamaño de las compañías, existen procesos cruciales que no pueden ser ejecutados dadas limitaciones de personal, activos físicos, financieros entre otros. Por lo anterior, propuestas como las Teoría de las Restricciones (Theory of Constraints - TOC) y el Manejo en base a Actividades (Activity-Based Management – AMB) se han posicionado como un marco de desarrollo dentro de los procesos administrativos y de producción de las compañías. En el presente proyecto se analizará el caso del proceso de reclamos presentados por los clientes en Salón Profesional, una de las Áreas de Negocio de la empresa Procter & Gamble, con el objetivo de formular una alternativa financieramente viable para mejorar el nivel de servicio en la resolución de reclamos para los clientes de Salón Profesional de Latinoamérica.

Una aproximación al mejoramiento de la cadena de abastecimiento. centro de distribución de repuestos GM Colmotores

Este trabajo de investigación se desarrolló con el fin de buscar alternativas de mejora para la operación de despacho de repuestos hacia los concesionarios del Centro de Distribución de Repuestos de GM Colmotores, investigando posibles formas para mantener y aumentar los estándares de productividad de este CEDI, mientras se mitiga la variabilidad de los despachos derivada de la inestabilidad de la demanda de los concesionarios y sus clientes.

Application of agent-based modeling to the study of gender stereotypes

Gender stereotypes are sets of characteristics that people believe to be typically true of a man or woman. We report an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates how stereotypes disseminate in a group through associative mechanisms. The model consists of agents that carry one of several different versions of a stereotype, which share part of their conceptual content. When an agent acts according to his/her stereotype, and that stereotype is shared by an observer, then the latter’s stereotype strengthens. Contrarily, if the agent does not act according to his/ her stereotype, then the observer’s stereotype weakens. In successive interactions, agents develop preferences, such that there will be a higher probability of interaction with agents that confirm their stereotypes. Depending on the proportion of shared conceptual content in the stereotype’s different versions, three dynamics emerge: all stereotypes in the population strengthen, all weaken, or a bifurcation occurs, i.e., some strengthen and some weaken. Additionally, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling to study social phenomena and the practical consequences that the model’s results might have on stereotype research and their effects on a community

Modelado basado en agentes: una herramienta para complementar el análisis de fenómenos sociales

Este estudio busca mostrar la utilidad del modelado basado en agentes (MbA) para estudiar diferentes fenómenos sociales. Dicha herramienta economiza tiempo y recursos, permitiendo analizar muchas variables para posteriormente seleccionar las más significativas y proseguir así con la investigación. Lo anterior se ilustra con un modelo que analiza el tiempo requerido para encontrar y atender enfermos según sea su tratamiento: domiciliario u hospitalario, si el personal puede compartir o no información sobre localización de enfermos y si estos residen densamente o no. Los resultados revelan que compartir información acorta significativamente el tiempo sólo para tratamientos hospitalarios y que la densidad no tiene impacto. Concluimos que MbA tiene grandes ventajas para el diseño de investigaciones sociales y asiste a la toma de decisiones en contextos profesionales.

La mejora de procesos y gestión por actividades : control y gestión de costes.

El objetivo fundamental del libro es el de facilitar al alumno una visión integral de la empresa que le permita analizar sus problemas, desde el punto de vista del directivo y orientado hacia el proceso de toma de decisiones. Este objetivo, debido a la subjetividad existente en el proceso de toma de decisiones, ha sido descompuesto en tres más específicos: descripción de las principales técnicas de costes tradicionales, justificar e ilustrar el diseño de sistemas ABC/ABM, potenciar el enseñar a aprender mediante la ilustración de ejemplos y la propuesta de prácticas. El trabajo ha sido desarrollado en el Departamento de Organización y Gestión de Empresas de la E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales de la Universidad de Valladolid. El trabajo permitirá instaurar metodologías que motiven más directamente a los alumnos en su aprendizaje a través de la realización de ejercicios y prácticas, al mismo tiempo, los profesores dispondrán de recursos más flexibles, eficientes e impactantes para explicar gestión empresarial. El libro aún sin publicar, consta de dos partes: la primera, consta de once apartados que cubren los principales métodos de costes y la segunda parte está constituída por una selección de problemas resueltos.

Sistema de gestión basado en el costeo de actividades como estrategia de competitividad en las organizaciones: el caso de la empresa Telecomunicaciones a su Alcance S.A.

La metodología del Costeo en Base a las Actividades se fundamenta en el hecho de que una empresa requiere realizar actividades que consumen recursos para producir productos o servicios, por lo que primero se costean las actividades y luego el costo de las actividades es asignado a los diferentes objetos de costo; con esto se logra mayor precisión en el análisis de la operación y rentabilidad. La finalidad del modelo se resume en producir información útil para una ventajosa toma de decisiones gerenciales. La Gestión de los costos en base a las actividades constituye un instrumento fundamental del análisis estratégico y operativo, tanto de la organización empresarial como de proyectos de lanzamiento y explotación de nuevos productos, por lo que su campo de actuación se extiende desde la concepción y diseño de cada producto hasta su explotación definitiva. Estos análisis proporcionan a las empresas bien informadas un conjunto de ventajas competitivas. La gestión en base al costeo de actividades, ABM, busca fortalecer los cuatro pilares fundamentales que constituyen la base de la competitividad dentro de los mercados globalizados actuales, estos cuatro pilares son: · Integración de las cadenas de procesos tanto con los proveedores y con los clientes. · La búsqueda y enfoque en el valor agregado que los clientes están dispuestos a pagar. · La flexibilidad de las cadenas de procesos, en los cambiantes mercados actuales. · Mayor apoyo de las operaciones en los costos variables, lo que permite a la organización aprovechar la estacionalidad de los mercados. Para que una empresa que va a desarrollar un proyecto de implantación de un sistema ABM obtenga los mayores beneficios es muy importante que lo lleve a cabo adecuadamente. El aporte que se ha pretendido presentar en este trabajo de investigación es el generar una especie de guía práctica de los principales pasos a seguir para la implantación del modelo ABM, exponiendo un caso práctico que trata de demostrar la aplicabilidad del modelo en el sector de servicios de telecomunicaciones, y relata las experiencias adquiridas y sugerencias que ayuden a los interesados en el tema.

A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing good model fits to field population data. The ability of the presented model to fit the available field and laboratory data for E. fetida demonstrates the promise of the agent-based approach in ecology, by showing how biological knowledge can be used to make ecological inferences. Further work is required to extend the approach to populations of more ecologically relevant species studied at the field scale. Such a model could help extrapolate from laboratory to field conditions and from one set of field conditions to another or from species to species.