Deregulation of Railroads and Future Development Scenarios in Europe - Literature Analysis of Privatization Process Taken Place in US, UK and Sweden

Euroopan unionissa päätettiin jo yli vuosikymmen sitten, että rautatieliiketoiminta vapautetaan kilpailulle. Iso-Britanniasta olimäärä tulla esimerkkivaltio tämän prosessin käyttöönotossa. Pääideana oli säännöstelyn keventäminen, jolloin omistuspohja toimialalla laajenee ja rautateiden infrastruktuuri sekä toiminta parantuvat. Infrastruktuuri on määrä olla yhden organisaation hallinnassa ja raiteiden käyttöoikeus on kaikilla lupaehdot täyttävillä operaattoreilla, jotka kilpailevat keskenään matkustajista ja tavararahdeista. Kuitenkin Yhdysvalloissa ja eräissä Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa kilpailu on vapautettu siten, että rautatieyritys omistaa raideinfrastruktuurin, junat, tavarankuljetus- sekä matkustajavaunut. Iso-Britannian yksityistämistä pidettiin aluksi isonaepäonnistumisena: nopealla aikataululla sovellettiin jäykkiä transaktioperusteisia ulkoistamisstrategioita infrastruktuurin kunnossapitoon, jotka lopulta johtivat junien jatkuviin myöhästymisiin ja muutamaan tuhoisaan onnettomuuteen. Liiketoiminnallisessa mielessäkään ei oikein onnistuttu: infrastruktuurista vastaava yritys jouduttiin listaamaan pois Lontoon pörssistä, ja hallituksen oli pakko luoda tukipaketti pahasti velkaantuneen, vain marginaalisien investointien kohteena olleen yrityksen toimintaa varten (vaikka kapasiteettitarvetta oli markkinoilla). Myös rautatieoperaattorit olivat taloudellisessa ahdingossa ja vain määrätietoisten hallituksen laatimien pelastuspakettien avulla ala nousi syvimmästä kriisistään. Tästä huolimatta näiden negatiivisten sivuvaikutusten ohella koko ala pystyi kasvattamaan kysyntää, niin matkustaja- kuin rahtiliikenteenkin osalta. Vähenevän kysynnän trendi, joka alkoi 1970-luvulla, otti käännöksen parempaan. Toinen eurooppalaismaa, jolla on pitkät kokemukset yksityistämisestä, on Ruotsi. Tämä maatapaus on melko konservatiivinen verrattuna tilanteeseen edellisessä; vain rajattu määrä reittejä on avattu kilpailulle ja sopimukset tehdään kerralla pitkäksi aikaa eteenpäin. Ruotsin säännöstelyn purku osoittautui menestykseksi, koska tuottavuus onollut vakaassa kasvussa ja rautateiden markkinaosuus erityisesti matkustajapuolella on noussut merkittävästi, verrattuna muihin kuljetusmuotoihin. Kuitenkin kilpailua on käytännössä vähän tässä maassa ja parempiatuloksia on lupa odottaa, kun vain säännöstelyn purkaminen jatkuu. Viimeinen tutkimuksemme kohteena oleva maa on Yhdysvallat, joka alistutti rautatiet kilpailulle jo 1980-luvun alussa, käyttäen jo edellä mainittua vertikaalista integraatiota; tämä valinta on taas johtanut hyvin erilaisiin tuloksiin. Vaihtoehtoinen rakenteellinen uudistustapa on suosinut rahtivirtoja matkustajiin nähden, ja lopputuloksena tämä tapaus synnytti yrityksiä huolehtimaan toista näistä kahdesta pääasiakasryhmästä. Viimeaikaiset tulokset tästä yksityistämisprosessista ovat olleet hyviä: jäljellejääneiden yritysten voitot ovat kasvaneet, osinkoja ollaan kyetty jakamaan ja osakkeiden arvostus on noussut. Tässä tutkimusraportissa yritämme kolmen maatapauksen kautta esittää, miten yksityistämisprosessi tulee vaikuttamaan Euroopassa, kun kilpailu rautateillä vapautuu. Me käymmeläpi, mikä näistä kolmesta maaesimerkistä on kaikkein todennäköisin jaesitämme ehdotuksia siihen, miten valtiot voisivat välttää ei-haluttuja sivuvaikutuksia. Kolme maaesimerkkiä, ja lopuksi esitetty lyhyt tilastollinen analyysi osoittavat, että rautateillä on tulevaisuuden potentiaalia Euroopassa, ja kilpailun vapauttaminen on avain tämän potentiaalin realisointiin.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Rural community in the Mediterranean Region in 2030 : projections and future scenarios : climate change and social change. ' Comunidades rurales en 2030 : proyecciones y escenarios futuros : cambio climático y cambio social.

Resumen en español

Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate mode

An analysis of the climate of precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional climate models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and to examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from the same ensemble of global climate model integrations for present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values of daily precipitation totals estimated from extreme value analysis. An evaluation of the RCMs against observations in the Alpine region shows that model biases for extremes are comparable to or even smaller than those for wet day intensity and mean precipitation. In winter, precipitation extremes tend to increase north of about 45°N, while there is an insignificant change or a decrease to the south. In northern Europe the 20-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 40- to 100-year return value of present climate. There is a good agreement between the RCMs, and the simulated change is similar to a scaling of present-day extremes by the change in average events. In contrast, there are large model differences in summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly to scenario uncertainty. The model differences are well explained by differences in the precipitation frequency and intensity process, but in all models, extremes increase more or decrease less than would be expected from the scaling of present-day extremes. There is evidence for a component of the change that affects extremes specifically and is consistent between models despite the large variation in the total response.

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

The Panama Canal turns 100: history and possible future scenarios

This issue of the FAL Bulletin sets out a brief history of the Panama Canal, its construction and its social and political impact on Panama, within the context of international trade at the time. This issue also reviews the recovery of the canal by the Republic of Panama and subsequent major events, including the decision to expand the canal and the start-up of work on the expansion project.

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)