Route to chaos in a third-order phase-locked loop network

Phase-locked loops (PLLs) are widely used in applications related to control systems and telecommunication networks. Here we show that a single-chain master-slave network of third-order PLLs can exhibit stationary, periodic and chaotic behaviors, when the value of a single parameter is varied. Hopf, period-doubling and saddle-saddle bifurcations are found. Chaos appears in dissipative and non-dissipative conditions. Thus, chaotic behaviors with distinct dynamical features can be generated. A way of encoding binary messages using such a chaos-based communication system is suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using bifurcations in the determination of lock-in ranges for third-order phase-locked loops

Transmission and switching in digital telecommunication networks require distribution of precise time signals among the nodes. Commercial systems usually adopt a master-slave (MS) clock distribution strategy building slave nodes with phase-locked loop (PLL) circuits. PLLs are responsible for synchronizing their local oscillations with signals from master nodes, providing reliable clocks in all nodes. The dynamics of a PLL is described by an ordinary nonlinear differential equation, with order one plus the order of its internal linear low-pass filter. Second-order loops are commonly used because their synchronous state is asymptotically stable and the lock-in range and design parameters are expressed by a linear equivalent system [Gardner FM. Phaselock techniques. New York: John Wiley & Sons: 1979]. In spite of being simple and robust, second-order PLLs frequently present double-frequency terms in PD output and it is very difficult to adapt a first-order filter in order to cut off these components [Piqueira JRC, Monteiro LHA. Considering second-harmonic terms in the operation of the phase detector for second order phase-locked loop. IEEE Trans Circuits Syst [2003;50(6):805-9; Piqueira JRC, Monteiro LHA. All-pole phase-locked loops: calculating lock-in range by using Evan`s root-locus. Int J Control 2006;79(7):822-9]. Consequently, higher-order filters are used, resulting in nonlinear loops with order greater than 2. Such systems, due to high order and nonlinear terms, depending on parameters combinations, can present some undesirable behaviors, resulting from bifurcations, as error oscillation and chaos, decreasing synchronization ranges. In this work, we consider a second-order Sallen-Key loop filter [van Valkenburg ME. Analog filter design. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston; 1982] implying a third order PLL The resulting lock-in range of the third-order PLL is determined by two bifurcation conditions: a saddle-node and a Hopf. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing lock-in ranges and transient responses of second- and third-order phase-locked loops in master-slave clock distribution networks

The distribution of clock signals throughout the nodes of a network is essential for several applications. in control and communication with the phase-locked loop (PLL) being the component for electronic synchronization process. In systems with master-slave (MS) strategies, the PLLs are the slave nodes responsible for providing reliable clocks in all nodes of the network. As PLLs have nonlinear phase detection, double-frequency terms appear and filtering becomes necessary. Imperfections in filtering process cause oscillations around the synchronous state worsening the performance of the clock distribution process. The behavior of one-way master-slave (OWMS) clock distribution networks is studied and performances of first- and second-order filter processes are compared, concerning lock-in ranges and responses to perturbations of the synchronous state. (c) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Body composition and quality of life (QoL) of the elderly offered by the ""University Third Age`` (UTA) in Brazil

The investigation of the factors that interfere in the well-being of the elderly and their QoL can provide theoretical and methodological subsidies in structuring actions and policies in the health area, in order to fulfill the needs of that population. In this descriptive transversal study, body composition and QoL of elderly women at the UTA program in Piracicaba (Sao Paulo, Brazil) were verified. The participants were 81 women from UTA, and the general levels of physical activity were evaluated, as well as body weight (BW), height, and bodymass index (BMI). The waist circumference (WC) was measured at the level of the umbilical scar and the body composition by impedance (BIA 310e). QoL was verified by means of WHOQOL-Bref and statistical analysis developed with the SAS program. The decrease of weight, height, BMI, and fat-free mass (FFM) was observed among the several age groups, although with no significant difference. The average levels of the general QoL scores and physical, psychological and environmental domains decreased in higher age groups, but social domains showed the opposite result. This fact can be a particular characteristic of the UTA group, and factors the influence such behavior are yet to be studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heteroplasmy in Hair: Study of Mitochondrial DNA Third Hypervariable Region in Hair and Blood Samples

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) analysis has proved useful for forensic identification especially in cases where nuclear DNA is not available, such as with hair evidence. Heteroplasmy, the presence of more than one type of mtDNA in one individual, is a common situation often reported in the first and second mtDNA hypervariable regions (HV1/HV2), particularly in hair samples. However, there is no data about heteroplasmy frequency in the third mtDNA hypervariable region (HV3). To investigate possible heteroplasmy hotspots, HV3 from hair and blood samples of 100 individuals were sequenced and compared. No point heteroplasmy was observed, but length heteroplasmy was, both in C-stretch and CA repeat. To observe which CA ""alleles"" were present in each tissue, PCR products were cloned and re-sequenced. However, no variation among CA alleles was observed. Regarding forensic practice, we conclude that point heteroplasmy in HV3 is not as frequent as in the HV1/HV2.

Intrinsically bent DNA sites in the Drosophila melanogaster third chromosome amplified domain

Bent DNA sites promote the curvature of DNA in both eukaryotic and prokaryotic chromosomes. Here, we investigate the localization and structure of intrinsically bent DNA sites in the extensively characterized Drosophila melanogaster third chromosome DAFC-66D segment (Drosophila amplicon in the follicle cells). This region contains the amplification control element ACE3, which is a replication enhancer that acts in cis to activate the major replication origin ori-beta. Through both electrophoretic and in silico analysis, we have identified three major bent DNA sites in DAFC-66D. The bent DNA site (b1) is localized in the ACE3 element, whereas the other two bent DNA sites (b2 and b3) are localized in the ori-beta region. Four additional bent DNA sites were identified in the intron of the S18 gene and near the TATA box of the S15, S19, and S16 genes. The identification of DNA bent sites in genomic regions previously characterized as functionally relevant for DNA amplification further supports a function for DNA bent sites in DNA replication in eukaryotes.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Claude Jones addressing a Communist Party of Australia meeting in Brisbane, Australia

Claude Jones addressing a Communist Party of Australia meeting in Brisbane, Australia. Ted Bacon can be seen at the table.

Bernie Taft speaking at a Communist Party of Australia meeting, Brisbane, Australia

Bernie Taft speaking at a Communist Party of Australia meeting, Brisbane, Australia. Claude Jones can be seen at the table.

Members of the Australian Labor Party during Mayday procession in Brisbane, Australia 1969

Members of the Australian Labor Party during Mayday procession in Brisbane, Australia 1969.

Patterns of alcohol consumption in young Australian women: socio-demographic factors, health-related behaviours and physical health

Objective: To determine which sociodemographic factors. health-related behaviours and physical health conditions are associated with non-drinking, binge drinking and hazardous/harmful drinking in young Australian women. Methods: Cross-sectional data were obtained from the baseline survey of 14,762 young women (aged 18-23 years) enrolled in the Women's Health Australia study in 1996. Associations between a range of drinking patterns and sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and health conditions were examined. Results: Half the women were 'low intake' drinkers, a third 'rarely drank' and 9% were non-drinkers; however, 70% reported binge drinking with one-quarter of the binge drinkers doing so at least weekly. Nondrinkers were more likely than drinkers to be married, pregnant, non-smokers, born in non-English speaking countries, to live in the Northern Territory, and to have lower levels of education, employment, and private health insurance. Low intake/binge weekly' drinkers (12%) and 'hazardous/ harmful' drinkers (5%) were more likely than 'low risk' drinkers to be unmarried; to live in shared accommodation, alone or with their parents; to live in rural or remote areas; to have ever had any sexually transmitted infection; to be current smokers or ex-smokers and to have used unhealthy weight-control practices. Conclusions: The results confirm findings from other countries about the importance of social conditions as determinants of alcohol consumption by young women. Implications: Health promotion to reduce young women's alcohol consumption needs to be carefully targeted to take account of their demographies, living environments and beliefs.