Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Risk Management or Uncertainty Governance? The Challenge of an Interdiscplinary Approach

Peer-reviewed

Prices versus exams as strategic instruments for competing universities

In this paper we investigate the optimal choice of prices and/or exams by universities in the presence of credit constraints. We first compare the optimal behavior of a public, welfare maximizing, monopoly and a private, profit maximizing, monopoly. Then we model competition between a public and a private institution and investigate the new role of exams/prices in this environment. We find that, under certain circumstances, the public university may have an interest to raise tuition fees from minimum levels if it cares for global welfare. This will be the case provided that (i) the private institution has higher quality and uses only prices to select applicants, or (ii) the private institution has lower quality and uses also exams to select students. When this is the case, there are efficiency grounds for raising public prices

Comovement of stock price risk in strategic alliance — Case: mobile internet

The focus of this study has been comovement of stock price risk level between two companies as they form strategic alliance. Thus the main reason has been to shed more light to possible increased risk level that the stockholder confronts when a company he owns forms a strategic alliance with another company. This study has centralized to interfirm cooperation between mobile and internet companies, which have furthered the development of mobile internet. The study has been divided into theoretical and empirical part. In theoretical part the main concepts riskiness of a stock (volatility), comovement and strategic alliance have been run through. In empirical part seven strategic alliances formed by mobile internet companies have been examined. Based on this, strategic alliance seems to increase comovement of stock price risk in some degree. This comovement seems to be stronger when core businesses or operating environments of cooperating companies differ more from each other.

Strategic groups and performance: an empirical analysis of strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe

The strategic group theory provides an intermediate level of analysis between a single company and the whole industry for identifying issues about the company's competitive position and strategic choices. Strategic groups are companies within an industry with similar strategic characteristics or competing on similar bases. Strategic choices are aligned with the firms’ resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe, and study, whether a certain group membership results in financial performance differences. Altogether 80 European wind energy companies were included in the study, which were clustered into four strategic groups according to their age and growth rate. Each group corresponds to a different strategy. The results show that the wind energy companies can be clustered according to the chosen strategic characteristics. Strategic decisions were investigated with characteristic variables. Performance variables were used in the analysis measuring profitability, liquidity and solvency of the groups. These strategic choices of the companies did not have a significant influence on the firms’ performance. The more mature and slower growing group proved to be the most successful. However, the differences between groups were generally not statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference found was in the solvency ratio between Mature Slow and Young Rapid groups. Measured with these variables, more mature and slower growing companies performed better. Therefore, a certain strategic group membership results in performance differences.

An analytic approach to distribution logistics strategic management

Logistics management is increasingly being recognised by many companies to be of critical concern. The logistics function includes directly or indirectly many of the new areas for achieving or maintaining competitive advantage that companies have been forced to develop due to increasing competitive pressures. The key to achieving a competitive advantage is to manage the logistics function strategically which involves determining the most cost effective method of providing the necessary customer service levels from the many combinations of operating procedures in the areas of transportation, warehousing, order processing and information systems, production, and inventory management. In this thesis, a comprehensive distribution logistics strategic management process is formed by integrating the periodic strategic planning process with a continuous strategic issues management process. Strategic planning is used for defining the basic objectives for a company and assuring co operation and synergy between the different functions of a company while strategic issues management is used on a continuous basis in order to deal with environmental and internal turbulence. The strategic planning subprocess consists of the following main phases: (1) situational analyses, (2) defining the vision and strategic goals for the logistics function, (3) determining objectives and strategies, (4) drawing up tactical action plans, and (5) evaluating the implementation of the plans and making the needed adjustments. The aim of the strategic issues management subprocess is to continuously scan the environment and the organisation for early identification of the issues having a significant impact on the logistics function using the following steps: (1) the identification of trends, (2) assessing the impact and urgency of the identified trends, (3) assigning priorities to the issues, and (4) planning responses to the, issues. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a systematic procedure for structuring any problem. AHP is based on the following three principles: decomposition, comparative judgements, and synthesis of priorities. AHP starts by decomposing a complex, multicriteria problem into a hierarchy where each level consists of a few manageable elements which are then decomposed into another set of elements. The second step is to use a measurement methodology to establish priorities among the elements within each level of the hierarchy. The third step in using AHP is to synthesise the priorities of the elements to establish the overall priorities for the decision alternatives. In this thesis, decision support systems are developed for different areas of distribution logistics strategic management by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The areas covered are: (1) logistics strategic issues management, (2) planning of logistic structure, (3) warehouse site selection, (4) inventory forecasting, (5) defining logistic action and development plans, (6) choosing a distribution logistics strategy, (7) analysing and selecting transport service providers, (8) defining the logistic vision and strategic goals, (9) benchmarking logistic performance, and (10) logistic service management. The thesis demonstrates the potential of AHP as a systematic and analytic approach to distribution logistics strategic management.

Imperfectly informed voters and strategic extremism

We analyze a unidimensional model of two-candidate electoral competition where voters have im- perfect information about the candidates' policy proposals, that is, voters cannot observe the exact policy proposals of the candidates but only which candidate offers the most leftist/rightist platform. We assume that candidates are purely office motivated and that one candidate enjoys a valence advan- tage over the other. We characterize the unique Sequential Equilibrium in very-weakly undominated strategies of the game. In this equilibrium the behavior of the two candidates tends to maximum extremism, due to the voters' lack of information. But it may converge or diverge depending on the size of the advantage. For small values of the advantage candidates converge to the extreme policy most preferred by the median and for large values of the advantage candidates strategies diverge: each candidate specializes in a different extreme policy. These results are robust to the introduction of a proportion of well informed voters. In this case the degree of extremism decreases when the voters become more informed.

Plan estratégico 2012-2105 para la empresa Automatizaciones Eléctricas, SL

La empresa moderna, se encuentra en una situación actual de incertidumbre en la que además está más expuesta a factores externos con el aumento de la competencia y el impacto de la globalización. Se enfrenta a un panorama que debe ser gestionado adecuadamente para asegurar su supervivencia y el éxito de su existencia. En este TFC, se presenta una de las herramientas ‘buque insignia’ del Management moderno, aquella que está destinada a ser la base de la Gestión de la empresa y que cada vez más se hace imprescindible para la construcción de un futuro cada vez más incierto, la Planificación Estratégica. El Plan Estratégico 2012-2015 de AESL se desarrolla en varios apartados que intentarán dar con las claves de la dirección que la empresa debe seguir y propone los objetivos que encontrará a través de la puesta en marcha de las acciones y estrategias determinadas. La primera etapa, y la más extensa, realiza un Análisis de la situación externa e interna de la empresa además de un Diagnóstico de la misma. Se analizan diversos factores que pueden contribuir o hacer peligrar el futuro de la empresa, y constituye el punto de partida de la planificación. En la segunda etapa, y con la información de la anterior fase, comienza la fijación de los Objetivos Corporativos y la definición de las Decisiones Estratégicas que han de transformar nuestro rumbo actual en el logro de esos objetivos. Las estrategias no sólo comportarán un ámbito corporativo, también se centrarán en estrategias funcionales con un carácter más definitorio en el interior de la empresa. Por último, la tercera y última etapa, aglutinará todas estas Decisiones estratégicas para transformarlas en las Decisiones Operativas, aquellas que se encargarán de gestionar el día a día de la empresa a través de los Planes de Acción, que suponen la etapa de mayor concreción del Plan. Este Plan a 3 años deberá erigirse como la herramienta de planificación más importante de la empresa, debiendo guiar las principales decisiones tomadas y convirtiéndose en un instrumento de consulta no sólo para decidir hoy lo que se hará en el futuro sino también para mantener unos niveles altos de competitividad en el tremendo esfuerzo que supone la gestión de una PYME.

Engendering Group Support Based Foresight for Capital Intensive Manufacturing Industries - Case Paper and Steel Industry Scenarios by 2018

In recent times of global turmoil, the need for uncertainty management has become ever momentous. The need for enhanced foresight especially concerns capital-intensive industries, which need to commit their resources and assets with long-term planning horizons. Scenario planning has been acknowledged to have many virtues - and limitations - concerning the mapping of the future and illustrating the alternative development paths. The present study has been initiated to address both the need of improved foresight in two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries and the imperfections in the current scenario practice. The research problem has been approached by engendering a problem-solving vehicle, which combines, e.g. elements of generic scenario process, face-to-face group support methods, deductive scenario reasoning and causal mapping into a fully integrated scenario process. The process, called the SAGES scenario framework, has been empirically tested by creating alternative futures for two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries. Three scenarios for each industry have been engendered together with the identification of the key megatrends, the most important foreign investment determinants, key future drivers and leading indicators for the materialisation of the scenarios. The empirical results revealed a two-fold outlook for the paper industry, while the steel industry future was seen as much more positive. The research found support for utilising group support systems in scenario and strategic planning context with some limitations. Key perceived benefits include high time-efficiency, productivity and lower resource-intensiveness. Group support also seems to enhance participant satisfaction, encourage innovative thinking and provide the users with personalised qualitative scenarios.

Strategic choices and performance – an empirical analysis of largest European and North American energy companies

Energy industry has gone through major changes globally in past two decades. Liberalization of energy markets has led companies to integrate both vertically and horizontally. Growing concern on sustainable development and aims to decrease greenhouse gases in future will increase the portion of renewable energy in total energy production. Purpose of this study was to analyze using statistical methods, what impacts different strategic choices has on biggest European and North American energy companies’ performance. Results show that vertical integration, horizontal integration and use of renewable energy in production had the most impact on profitability. Increase in level of vertical integration decreased companies’ profitability, while increase in horizontal integration improved companies’ profitability. Companies that used renewable energy in production were less profitable than companies not using renewable energy.

Strategic Development of Electricity Distribution Networks – Concept and Methods

Strategic development of distribution networks plays a key role in the asset management in electricity distribution companies. Owing to the capital-intensive nature of the field and longspan operations of companies, the significance of a strategy is emphasised. A well-devised strategy combines awareness of challenges posed by the operating environment and the future targets of the distribution company. Economic regulation, ageing infrastructure, scarcity of resources and tightening supply requirements with challenges created by the climate change put a pressure on the strategy work. On the other hand, technology development related to network automation and underground cabling assists in answering these challenges. This dissertation aims at developing process knowledge and establishing a methodological framework by which key issues related to network development can be addressed. Moreover, the work develops tools by which the effects of changes in the operating environment on the distribution business can be analysed in the strategy work. To this end, the work discusses certain characteristics of the distribution business and describes the strategy process at a principle level. Further, the work defines the subtasks in the strategy process and presents the key elements in the strategy work and long-term network planning. The work delineates the factors having either a direct or indirect effect on strategic planning and development needs in the networks; in particular, outage costs constitute an important part of the economic regulation of the distribution business, reliability being thus a key driver in network planning. The dissertation describes the methodology and tools applied to cost and reliability analyses in the strategy work. The work focuses on determination of the techno-economic feasibility of different network development technologies; these feasibility surveys are linked to the economic regulation model of the distribution business, in particular from the viewpoint of reliability of electricity supply and allowed return. The work introduces the asset management system developed for research purposes and to support the strategy work, the calculation elements of the system and initial data used in the network analysis. The key elements of this asset management system are utilised in the dissertation. Finally, the study addresses the stages of strategic decision-making and compilation of investment strategies. Further, the work illustrates implementation of strategic planning in an actual distribution company environment.

Internal standard versus external standard calibration: an uncertainty case study of a liquid chromatography analysis

Traditionally, in the cigarettes industry, the determination of ammonium ion in the mainstream smoke is performed by ion chromatography. This work studies this determination and compares the results of this technique with the use of external and internal standard calibration. A reference cigarette sample presented measurement uncertainty of 2.0 μg/cigarette and 1.5 μg/cigarette, with external and internal standard, respectively. It is observed that the greatest source of uncertainty is the bias correction factor and that it is even more significant when using external standard, confirming thus the importance of internal standardization for this correction.

Strategic practices : : hidden histories of gender in Finland 1880-2005 : projektikuvaus

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