Statistical analyses of weigh-in-motion data for bridge live load development

This paper discusses the statistical analyses used to derive bridge live loads models for Hong Kong from a 10-year weigh-in-motion (WIM) data. The statistical concepts required and the terminologies adopted in the development of bridge live load models are introduced. This paper includes studies for representative vehicles from the large amount of WIM data in Hong Kong. Different load affecting parameters such as gross vehicle weights, axle weights, axle spacings, average daily number of trucks etc are first analyzed by various stochastic processes in order to obtain the mathematical distributions of these parameters. As a prerequisite to determine accurate bridge design loadings in Hong Kong, this study not only takes advantages of code formulation methods used internationally but also presents a new method for modelling collected WIM data using a statistical approach.

Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

Elevated plasma fibronectin levels associated with venous thromboembolism

Elevated plasma fibronectin levels occur in various clinical states including arterial disease. Increasing evidence suggests that atherothrombosis and venous thromboembolism (VTE) share common risk factors. To assess the hypothesis that high plasma fibronectin levels are associated with VTE, we compared plasma fibronectin levels in the Scripps Venous Thrombosis Registry for 113 VTE cases vs. age and sex matched controls. VTE cases had significantly higher mean fibronectin concentration compared to controls (127% vs. 103%, p<0.0001); the difference was greater for idiopathic VTE cases compared to secondary VTE cases (133% vs. 120%, respectively). Using a cut-off of >90% of the control values, the odds ratio (OR) for association of VTE for fibronectin plasma levels above the 90th percentile were 9.37 (95% CI 2.73-32.2; p<0.001) and this OR remained significant after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index (BMI), factor V Leiden and prothrombin nt20210A (OR 7.60, 95% CI 2.14-27.0; p=0.002). In particular, the OR was statistically significant for idiopathic VTE before and after these statistical adjustments. For the total male cohort, the OR was significant before and after statistical adjustments and was not significant for the total female cohort. In summary, our results suggest that elevated plasma fibronectin levels are associated with VTE especially in males, and extend the potential association between biomarkers and risk factors for arterial atherothrombosis and VTE. © 2008 Schattauer GmbH.

Intelligent distribution planning and control incorporating microgrids

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to the planning of distribution networks and the control of microgrids. Firstly, a Modified Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (MDPSO) method is used to optimally plan a distribution system upgrade over a 20 year planning period. The optimization is conducted at different load levels according to the anticipated load duration curve and integrated over the system lifetime in order to minimize its total lifetime cost. Since the optimal solution contains Distributed Generators (DGs) to maximize reliability, the DG must be able to operate in islanded mode and this leads to the concept of microgrids. Thus the second part of the paper reviews some of the challenges of microgrid control in the presence of both inertial (rotating direct connected) and non-inertial (converter interfaced) DGs. More specifically enhanced control strategies based on frequency droop are proposed for DGs to improve the smooth synchronization and real power sharing minimizing transient oscillations in the microgrid. Simulation studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the control.

The sample complexity of pattern classification with neural networks: the size of the weights is more important than the size of the network

Sample complexity results from computational learning theory, when applied to neural network learning for pattern classification problems, suggest that for good generalization performance the number of training examples should grow at least linearly with the number of adjustable parameters in the network. Results in this paper show that if a large neural network is used for a pattern classification problem and the learning algorithm finds a network with small weights that has small squared error on the training patterns, then the generalization performance depends on the size of the weights rather than the number of weights. For example, consider a two-layer feedforward network of sigmoid units, in which the sum of the magnitudes of the weights associated with each unit is bounded by A and the input dimension is n. We show that the misclassification probability is no more than a certain error estimate (that is related to squared error on the training set) plus A3 √((log n)/m) (ignoring log A and log m factors), where m is the number of training patterns. This may explain the generalization performance of neural networks, particularly when the number of training examples is considerably smaller than the number of weights. It also supports heuristics (such as weight decay and early stopping) that attempt to keep the weights small during training. The proof techniques appear to be useful for the analysis of other pattern classifiers: when the input domain is a totally bounded metric space, we use the same approach to give upper bounds on misclassification probability for classifiers with decision boundaries that are far from the training examples.

Identification of area-level influences on regions of high cancer incidence in Queensland, Australia : a classification tree approach

Background: Strategies for cancer reduction and management are targeted at both individual and area levels. Area-level strategies require careful understanding of geographic differences in cancer incidence, in particular the association with factors such as socioeconomic status, ethnicity and accessibility. This study aimed to identify the complex interplay of area-level factors associated with high area-specific incidence of Australian priority cancers using a classification and regression tree (CART) approach. Methods: Area-specific smoothed standardised incidence ratios were estimated for priority-area cancers across 478 statistical local areas in Queensland, Australia (1998-2007, n=186,075). For those cancers with significant spatial variation, CART models were used to identify whether area-level accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity were associated with high area-specific incidence. Results: The accessibility of a person’s residence had the most consistent association with the risk of cancer diagnosis across the specific cancers. Many cancers were likely to have high incidence in more urban areas, although male lung cancer and cervical cancer tended to have high incidence in more remote areas. The impact of socioeconomic status and ethnicity on these associations differed by type of cancer. Conclusions: These results highlight the complex interactions between accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity in determining cancer incidence risk.

Oxygen transport in soil and the vertical distribution of roots

An analytical solution for steady-state oxygen transport in soils including 2 sink terms, viz roots and microbes with the corresponding vertical distribution scaling lengths forming a ratio p, showed p governed the critical air-filled porosity, θ_c, needed by most plants. For low temperature and p, θ_c was <0.1 but at higher temperatures and p = 1, θ_c was >0.15 m³/m³. When root length density at the surface was 10⁴ m/m³ and p > 3, θ_c was 0.25 m³/m³, more than half the pore space. Few combinations of soil and climate regularly meet this condition. However, for sandy soils and seasonally warm, arid regions, the theory is consistent with observation, in that plants may have some deep roots. Critical θ_c values are used to formulate theoretical solutions in a forward mode, so different levels of oxygen uptake by roots may be compared to microbial activity. The proportion of respiration by plant roots increases rapidly with p up to p ≈2.