Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revision of the larval morphology (Zoea I) of the family Hippolytidae (Decapoda, Caridea), with a description of the first stage of the shrimp Hippolyte obliquimanus Dana, 1852

The aim of this study was to summarize the available data on larval morphology of the first zoea of the family Hippolytidae and describe the first zoeal stage of H. obliquimanus from two geographically distinct populations, Brazilian and Caribbean in order to discuss inter- and intraspecific variability. Ovigerous females of Hippolyte obliquimanus were collected at Cahuita (Limon, Costa Rica) and at Ubatuba (Sao Paulo, Brazil). We compiled the published descriptions of all available hippolytid Zoea I (66 spp., 21%), and all zoeae share several characteristics. However, such morphological features cannot be used to distinguish the first zoeae of Hippolytidae from other caridean larvae. Historically, the presence of an exopodal seta at the maxillule and the absence of the anal spine/papilla have been considered as characteristic for the Zoea I of the genus Hippolyte. The results of our revision, however, did not support these conclusions: although H. obliquimanus showed an exopodal seta at the maxillule, four congeners did not bear such structure; moreover, H. obliquimanus as well as one other congener have an anal spine/papilla. All morphological characters observed in the first zoeal stage of H. obliquimanus are shared with others species of the family Hippolytidae. Intraspecific variability in Hippolyte obliquimanus was detected in one morphological aspect: the first zoea had four denticles on the ventral margin of the carapace in the Brazilian population, while specimens from the Costa Rican population had three.

'You can criticise because you care': How attributions affect responses to ingroup and outgroup critics

There are times when people feel compelled to stand up and articulate their group's shortcomings, an act that carries with it enormous social risks. Indeed, a mechanistic reading of social identity theory might lead one to believe that ingroup critics are doomed to face hostility because they are attacking a fundamental part of people's self-concept. But often ingroup critics are doing more than attacking their group — they are trying to incite positive change. Criticism is the cornerstone of protest, and it is difficult to imagine how a group can be reinvigorated, reinvented, or reformed without some process of critical self-reflection. Thus, although the ingroup critic might create tension within the group, it is possible that internal criticism could be seen by other group members as beneficial in terms of promoting positive change and stimulating innovation, creativity, and flexibility in decision making. In this talk I examine the 'identity rules' that ingroup critics need to follow to avoid defensiveness, and look at empirical evidence of how factors such as language, the intergroup context, and choice of audience shape people's attributions regarding criticism and their subsequent evaluations of critics.

Ultrasound imaging in rehabilitation: Just a fad?

Real-time ultrasound imaging provides an unrivalled opportunity to observe muscle morphology and contraction. This has obvious potential for clinical practice and the tool is beginning to be adopted into physical therapy. The implementation of ultrasound imaging has become particularly widespread for assessment of size and activation of deep trunk muscles, such as the transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus, and for assessment of the pelvic floor muscles. The obvious benefit for these areas is that ultrasound permits observation of muscles that are difficult to assess through noninvasive means. This realization of the clinical potential of ultrasound imaging has been paralleled by an explosion of clinical and physiological research. However, despite the enthusiasm for utilization of ultrasound imaging, a question that is critical to address is whether ultrasound can actually improve rehabilitation.

Influence of ovariectomy and masticatory hypofunction on mandibular bone remodeling

Introduction: This study was designed to examine the effect of masticatory hypofunction and estrogen deficiency on mandible bone mass and compare this site with spine and femoral bone. Methods: Twenty-four rats were ovariectomized (OVX) or Sham-operated (Sham) and analyzed after feeding with hard diet (Hard) or soft diet (Soft). They were divided into four groups: (GI)Sham-Hard; (GII)OVX-Hard; (GIII)Sham-Soft and (GIV)OVX-Soft. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured in the spine and femur in the baseline and at the end of the study, and Delta BMD (final BMD - baseline BMD) was calculated. In mandible bone, BMD and histomorphometry were analyzed at the end of the experiment. Results: Sham rats showed higher spine (GI: 13.5%vs GII: 0.74%, P < 0.01; GIII: 10.67%vs GIV: -4.36%, P < 0.001) and femur Delta BMD (GI: 14.43%vs GII: 4.42%, P < 0.01; GIII: 10.58%vs GIV: 0.49%, P < 0.001) than OVX, but no difference was observed in mandible BMD among these groups (P > 0.05). Soft-diet groups showed decreased mandible BMD compared with hard-diet groups (GIV vs GII, P < 0.01; GIII vs GI, P < 0.01). Similarly, mandibular condyle histomorphometry showed that soft-diet groups presented a significant decrease in trabecular thickness and volume (GIV vs GII, P < 0.05; GIII vs GI, P < 0.01) compared with hard diet. Conclusion: Our results suggest that mandibular bone loss resulted from decreased of mechanical loading during mastication, and was not affect by estrogen depletion.

Massage for Low Back Pain An Updated Systematic Review Within the Framework of the Cochrane Back Review Group

Study Design. Systematic Review. Objectives. To assess the effects of massage therapy for nonspecific low back pain. Summary of Background Data. Low back pain is one of the most common and costly musculoskeletal problems in modern society. Proponents of massage therapy claim it can minimize pain and disability, and speed return to normal function. Methods. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL from their beginning to May 2008. We also searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2006, issue 3), HealthSTAR and Dissertation abstracts up to 2006. There were no language restrictions. References in the included studies and in reviews of the literature were screened. The studies had to be randomized or quasi-randomized trials investigating the use of any type of massage (using the hands or a mechanical device) as a treatment for nonspecific low back pain. Two review authors selected the studies, assessed the risk of bias using the criteria recommended by the Cochrane Back Review Group, and extracted the data using standardized forms. Both qualitative and meta-analyses were performed. Results. Thirteen randomized trials were included. Eight had a high risk and 5 had a low risk of bias. One study was published in German and the rest in English. Massage was compared to an inert therapy (sham treatment) in 2 studies that showed that massage was superior for pain and function on both short- and long-term follow-ups. In 8 studies, massage was compared to other active treatments. They showed that massage was similar to exercises, and massage was superior to joint mobilization, relaxation therapy, physical therapy, acupuncture, and self-care education. One study showed that reflexology on the feet had no effect on pain and functioning. The beneficial effects of massage in patients with chronic low back pain lasted at least 1 year after the end of the treatment. Two studies compared 2 different techniques of massage. One concluded that acupuncture massage produces better results than classic (Swedish) massage and another concluded that Thai massage produces similar results to classic (Swedish) massage. Conclusion. Massage might be beneficial for patients with subacute and chronic nonspecific low back pain, especially when combined with exercises and education. The evidence suggests that acupuncture massage is more effective than classic massage, but this need confirmation. More studies are needed to confirm these conclusions, to assess the impact of massage on return-to-work, and to determine cost-effectiveness of massage as an intervention for low back pain.

Idiopathic spinal epidural hematoma in patients with sudden paraplegia: A case report

Introduction. Spontaneous spinal epidural hematoma (SEH) represents 0.3-0.9% of spinal epidural space-occupying lesions, and most surgeons advocate aggressive and early surgical intervention. In. this paper we describe a patient with SEH with sudden paraplegia. Case report. This 30-year-old man had experienced one prior episode of sudden dorsal pain two days before the current admission and while he waited medical attendance, his legs suddenly became weak, and immediately afterwards, he became completely paraplegic in minutes. The patient had complete paraplegia, analgesia below the T4 level and urinary retention. He had no anticoagulant agent and no coagulopathic disease. He was submitted to computerized tomography that demonstrated a dorsally located epidural hematoma extending from the T3 to the T6 level with spinal cord compression. A laminectomy from T3 to T7 was performed four hours after the onset of the symptom. In postoperative time the patient presented the partial sensorial recovery and motor force grade II. The patient was directed to a neurorehabilitation program and in the last medical evaluation he presented recovery for motor grade III-IV without pain. Conclusion. The SHE is rare, with severe neurological consequences for patients and early surgical treatment persist as essential for motor recovery.

Multifidus muscle recovery is not automatic after resolution of acute, first-episode low back pain

Study Design. A clinical study was conducted on 39 patients with acute, first-episode, unilateral low back pain and unilateral, segmental inhibition of the multifidus muscle. Patients were allocated randomly to a control or treatment group. Objectives. To document the natural course of lumbar multifidus recovery and to evaluate the effectiveness of specific, localized, exercise therapy on muscle recovery. Summary of Background Data. Acute low back pain usually resolves spontaneously, but the recurrence rate is high. Inhibition of multifidus occurs with acute, first-episode, low back pain, and pathologic changes in this muscle have been linked with poor outcome and recurrence of symptoms. Methods. Patients in group 1 received medical treatment only. Patients in group 2 received medical treatment and specific, localized, exercise therapy. Outcome measures for both groups included 4 weekly assessments of pain, disability, range of motion, and size of the multifidus cross-sectional area. Independent examiners were blinded to group allocation. Patients were reassessed at a 10-week follow-up examination. Results. Multifidus muscle recovery was not spontaneous on remission of painful symptoms in patients in group 1. Muscle recovery was more rapid and more complete in patients in group 2 who received exercise therapy (P = 0.0001). Other outcome measurements were similar for the two groups at the 4-week examination. Although they resumed normal levels of activity, patients in group 1 still had decreased multifidus muscle size at the 10-week follow-up examination. Conclusions. Multifidus muscle recovery is not spontaneous on remission of painful symptoms. Lack of localized, muscle support may be one reason for the high recurrence rate of low back pain following the initial episode.

Mechanism of ribonuclease inhibition by ribonuclease inhibitor protein based on the crystal structure of its complex with ribonuclease A

We describe the mechanism of ribonuclease inhibition by ribonuclease inhibitor, a protein built of leucine-rich repeats, based on the crystal structure of the complex between the inhibitor and ribonuclease A. The structure was determined by molecular replacement and refined to an R(cryst) of 19.4% at 2.5 Angstrom resolution. Ribonuclease A binds to the concave region of the inhibitor protein comprising its parallel beta-sheet and loops. The inhibitor covers the ribonuclease active site and directly contacts several active-site residues. The inhibitor only partially mimics the RNase-nucleotide interaction and does not utilize the pi phosphate-binding pocket of ribonuclease A, where a sulfate ion remains bound. The 2550 Angstrom(2) of accessible surface area buried upon complex formation may be one of the major contributors to the extremely tight association (K-i = 5.9 x 10(-14) M). The interaction is predominantly electrostatic; there is a high chemical complementarity with 18 putative hydrogen bonds and salt links, but the shape complementarity is lower than in most other protein-protein complexes. Ribonuclease inhibitor changes its conformation upon complex formation; the conformational change is unusual in that it is a plastic reorganization of the entire structure without any obvious hinge and reflects the conformational flexibility of the structure of the inhibitor. There is a good agreement between the crystal structure and other biochemical studies of the interaction. The structure suggests that the conformational flexibility of RI and an unusually large contact area that compensates for a lower degree of complementarity may be the principal reasons for the ability of RI to potently inhibit diverse ribonucleases. However, the inhibition is lost with amphibian ribonucleases that have substituted most residues corresponding to inhibitor-binding residues in RNase A, and with bovine seminal ribonuclease that prevents inhibitor binding by forming a dimer. (C) 1996 Academic Press Limited

A framework for specification-based testing

Test templates and a test template framework are introduced as useful concepts in specification-based testing. The framework can be defined using any model-based specification notation and used to derive tests from model-based specifications-in this paper, it is demonstrated using the Z notation. The framework formally defines test data sets and their relation to the operations in a specification and to other test data sets, providing structure to the testing process. Flexibility is preserved, so that many testing strategies can be used. Important application areas of the framework are discussed, including refinement of test data, regression testing, and test oracles.

Smart Alerts: Development of Software to Optimize Data Monitoring

Dherte PM, Negrao MPG, Mori Neto S, Holzhacker R, Shimada V, Taberner P, Carmona MJC - Smart Alerts: Development of a Software to Optimize Data Monitoring. Background and objectives: Monitoring is useful for vital follow-ups and prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of several events in anesthesia. Although alarms can be useful in monitoring they can cause dangerous user`s desensitization. The objective of this study was to describe the development of specific software to integrate intraoperative monitoring parameters generating ""smart alerts"" that can help decision making, besides indicating possible diagnosis and treatment. Methods: A system that allowed flexibility in the definition of alerts, combining individual alarms of the parameters monitored to generate a more elaborated alert system was designed. After investigating a set of smart alerts, considered relevant in the surgical environment, a prototype was designed and evaluated, and additional suggestions were implemented in the final product. To verify the occurrence of smart alerts, the system underwent testing with data previously obtained during intraoperative monitoring of 64 patients. The system allows continuous analysis of monitored parameters, verifying the occurrence of smart alerts defined in the user interface. Results: With this system a potential 92% reduction in alarms was observed. We observed that in most situations that did not generate alerts individual alarms did not represent risk to the patient. Conclusions: Implementation of software can allow integration of the data monitored and generate information, such as possible diagnosis or interventions. An expressive potential reduction in the amount of alarms during surgery was observed. Information displayed by the system can be oftentimes more useful than analysis of isolated parameters.

Contraction of the abdominal muscles associated with movement of the lower limb

Background and Purpose. Activity of the trunk muscles is essential for maintaining stability of the lumbar spine because of the unstable structure of that portion of the spine. A model involving evaluation of the response of the lumbar multifidus and abdominal muscles to leg movement was developed to evaluate this function. Subjects. To examine this function in healthy persons, 9 male and 6 female subjects (mean age = 20.6 years, SD = 2.3) with no history of low back pain were studied. Methods. Fine-wire and surface electromyography electrodes were used to record the activity of selected trunk muscles and the prime movers for hip flexion, abduction, and extension during hip movements in each of these directions. Results. Trunk muscle activity occurring prior to activity of the prime mover of the limb was associated with hip movement in each direction. The transversus abdominis (TrA) muscle was invariably the first muscle that was active. Although reaction time for the TrA and oblique abdominal muscles was consistent across movement directions, reaction time for the rectus abdominis and multifidus muscles varied with the direction of limb movement. Conclusion and Discussion. Results suggest that the central nervous st stem deals with stabilization of the spine by contraction of the abdominal and multifidus muscles in anticipation of reactive forces produced by limb movement. The TrA and oblique abdominal muscles appear to contribute to a function not related to the direction of these forces.

Effect of the bilateral hip bone density measurement on clinical practice in elderly subjects

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine whether the addition of the measurement of bilateral hip bone mineral density (BMD) has an impact on indications for osteoporosis (OP) treatment in community-dwelling elderly individuals, based on criteria from the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF). Methods: In total, 605 consecutive community-dwelling elderly individuals who were 65 years and older were evaluated. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to determine the lowest T-score in the lumbar spine + unilateral hip, the bilateral hips, and the lumbar spine + bilateral hips. Risk factors associated with the lowest T-score in these three conditions were applied to indicate treatment in accordance with NOF criteria. McNemar`s test was used to assess the difference of adding bilateral hip BMD measurements. Results: There was a significant difference in the frequency of pharmacological indication using NOF criteria together with the lowest T-score for the three tests (72.8% for lumbar spine + bilateral hips and 71.2% for lumbar spine + unilateral hip; p=0.002). A higher frequency of treatment indication was also observed for lumbar spine + unilateral hip (71.2%) compared to bilateral hips (61.1%) (p<0.001). The discrepancies in treatment appeared to be more evident in women when analyzed by gender distribution. Conclusion: Our finding supports the theory that evaluation of the bilateral hips with the lumbar spine seems to be more sensitive measure for identifying patients with an osteoporosis treatment indication. Furthermore, despite the well-known artifact in the lumbar spine, this site should not be excluded when determining the indication for OP treatment in elderly people. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Auto-antibodies do not influence development of atherosclerotic plaques in rheumatoid arthritis

Background: Many questions remain unanswered about premature atherosclerosis in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Besides inflammation, some studies have suggested the role of autoantibodies on its pathogenesis. Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of antibodies against phospholipids, beta2-glycoproteinl (beta2-gpl), lipoprotein lipase, and heat shock proteins (Hsp) in RA patients and to evaluate their possible association with subclinical carotid atherosclerosis. Methods: Seventy-one RA patients and 53 age- and sex-matched controls were selected to perform anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) (IgG and IgM), anti-beta2-gpl (IgG, IgM, and IgA), anti-lipoprotein lipase (anti-LPL), anti-Hsp 60, and anti-Hsp 65 by ELISA tests. Intima-medial thickness (IMT) of common carotid and presence of plaques were assessed by high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography. Exclusion criteria were smoking, diabetes, and arterial hypertension. Lipoproteins, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and fibrinogen levels, as well as health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) and disease activity score (DAS) 28 were also evaluated. Results: Age (48.93 +/- 12.31 vs. 45.37 +/- 9.37 years; p = 0.20) and body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.69) were similar in RA and controls, as well as female gender (p = 0.56). The mean IMT was similar between RA and controls (0. 721 +/- 0.16 vs. 0.667 +/- 0.14 turn, p = 0.07) but the frequency of plaques was higher in RA (14.1% vs. 1.9%; p = 0.02). In RA patients, IMT measurements did not differ according to the presence or absence of these antibodies: IgG aCL (0.62 +/- 0.64 vs. 0.72 +/- 0.17 mm, p = 0.24), IgM aCL (0.65 +/- 0.79 vs. 0.73 +/- 0.17 mm, p = 0.33), anti-Hsp 60 (0.78 +/- 0.20 vs. 0.71 +/- 0.16 mm, p = 0.27), anti-Hsp 65 (0.73 +/- 0.16 vs. 0.72 +/- 0.17 mm, p = 0.77), IgG anti-beta2-gpl (0.73 +/- 0.16 vs. 0.71 +/- 0.17 mm, p = 0.72), and anti-CCP (0.71 +/- 0.16 vs. 0.76 +/- 0.20 mm, p = 0.36). In addition, IMT did not correlate with antibodies titers: IgG aCL (r = -0.09, p = 0.47), IgM aCL (r = - 0.15, p = 0.21), anti-Hsp 60 (r = 0.10, p = 0.42), anti-Hsp 65 (r = 0.05, p = 0.69), IgG anti-beta2-gpl (r = - 0.07, p = 0.57), IgM anti-beta2-gpl (r = - 0.05, p = 0.69), IgA anti-beta2-gpl (r = 0.03, p = 0.79), and anti-CCP (r = - 0.07, p = 0.57). RA patients with plaques had a significantly higher age compared to those without plaques (p = 0.001), as well as higher mean IMT (p < 0.001), total cholesterol (p = 0.001), and LDL (p = 0.003). Conclusions: In RA a clear association between all autoantibodies studied herein and increased IMT or presence of plaques was not observed. The great prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in RA was related to age, total and LDL cholesterol, as identified in normal population. (c) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Bone mineral apparent density in juvenile dermatomyositis: the role of lean body mass and glucocorticoid use

Objective: To analyse bone mineral density (BMD) in juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) and its possible association with body composition, disease activity, duration of disease, glucocorticoid (GC) use, and biochemical bone parameters, including osteoprotegerin (OPG) and receptor activator of nuclear factor B (RANKL). Methods: Twenty girls with JDM and 20 controls matched for gender and age were selected. Body composition and BMD were analysed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and bone mineral apparent density (BMAD) was calculated. Duration of disease, cumulative GC, and GC pulse therapy use were determined from medical records. Disease activity and muscle strength were measured by the Disease Activity Score (DAS), the Childhood Myositis Assessment Scale (CMAS), and the Manual Muscle Test (MMT). Inflammatory and bone metabolism parameters were also analysed. OPG and RANKL were measured in patients and controls using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: A lower BMAD in the femoral neck (p< 0.001), total femur (p< 0.001), and whole body (p=0.005) was observed in JDM patients compared to controls. Body composition analysis showed a lower lean mass in JDM compared to controls (p=0.015), but no difference was observed with regard to fat mass. A trend of lower serum calcium was observed in JDM (p=0.05), whereas all other parameters analysed, including OPG and RANKL, were similar. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that, in JDM, lean mass (p< 0.01) and GC pulse therapy use (p< 0.05) were independent factors for BMAD in the hip region. Conclusions: This study has identified low lean mass and GC pulse therapy use as the major factors for low hip BMAD in JDM patients.