A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Task constraints

Newell (1985, 1986) identified the importance of interacting constraints on the emergent behaviours of learners or performers in sport as they assemble functional states of movement organisation in achieving task goals. Constraints, related to the person, task and environment, were defined as ‘boundaries or features that limit motion of the entity under consideration at any moment in time’ (Newell, 1986, p.347). Personal (or organismic) constraints include factors such as individual anthropometrics (height, weight, and limb lengths), fitness (e.g., strength, speed, aerobic capacity, and flexibility), mental skills (e.g. concentration, confidence, emotional control and motivation), perceptual and decisionmaking skills (e.g., recognising patterns of play, anticipation by reading the movements of opponents) and personality factors (e.g., risk taking or conservative behaviours). Newell (1986, p.350) distinguished between general environmental constraints, such as gravity, ambient temperature, natural light and altitude and task constraints, which are task specific and concerned with the goals of a specific activity. More recently, socio-cultural constraints (e.g., family support, cultural expectations and access to facilities) have also been considered as environmental constraints. Application of the constraints framework to the study of sport performance has led to task constraints being defined to include factors such as rules of games, equipment used, boundary playing areas and markings, nets and goals, the number of...

Socio-technological phishing prevention

Phishing is deceptive collection of personal information leading to embezzlement, identity theft, and so on. Preventive and combative measures have been taken by banking institutions, software vendors, and network authorities to fight phishing. At the forefront of this resilience are consortiums such as APWG (Anti-Phishing Working Group) and PhishTank, the latter being a collaborative platform where everyone can submit potentially phishing web-pages and classify web-pages as either phish or genuine. PhishTank also has an API that the browsers use to notify users when she tries to load a phishing page. There are some organizations and individuals who are very active and highly accurate in classifying web-pages on PhishTank. In this paper, we propose a defense model that uses these experts to fight phishing.

Ghost hunting with lollies, chess and Lego : appreciating the ‘messy’ complexity (and costs) of doing difficult research in education

This paper contributes to conversations about the funding and quality of education research. The paper proceeds in two parts. Part I sets the context by presenting an historical analysis of funding allocations made to Education research through the ARC’s Discovery projects scheme between the years 2002 and 2014, and compares these trends to allocations made to another field within the Social, Behavioural and Economic Sciences assessment panel: Psychology and Cognitive Science. Part II highlights the consequences of underfunding education research by presenting evidence from an Australian Research Council Discovery project that is tracking the experiences of disaffected students who are referred to behaviour schools. The re-scoping decisions that became necessary and the incidental costs that accrue from complications that occur in the field are illustrated and discussed through vignettes of research with “ghosts” who don’t like school but who do like lollies, chess and Lego.

The role of the market sub-system and the socio-technical sub-system in innovation and firm performance : a dynamic capabilities approach

Organizational learning has been studied as a key factor in firm performance and internationalization. Moving beyond the past emphasis on market learning, we develop a more complete explanation of learning, its relationship to innovation, and their joint effect on early internationalization. We theorize that, driven by the founders’ international vision, early internationalizing firms employ a dual subsystem of dynamic capabilities: a market subsystem consisting of market-focused learning capability and marketing capability, and a socio-technical subsystem comprised of network learning capability and internally focused learning capability. We argue that innovation mediates the proposed relationship between the dynamic capability structure and early internationalization. We conduct case studies to develop the conceptual framework and test it in a field survey of early internationalizing firms from Australia and the United States. Our findings indicate a complex interplay of capabilities driving innovation and early internationalization. We provide theoretical and practical implications and offer insights for future research.

Socio-demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyle factors, and health as predictors of mental health in midlife and older Australian women: a multilevel investigation

Background Poor mental health is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, yet debate continues about factors most likely to predict poor mental health outcomes. Objective This cohort study examines the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors, menopausal symptoms, and physical health on the mental health of midlife and older Australian women. Methods: Random sampling was used to recruit women aged 40-55, from rural and urban areas of Queensland, Australia. Overall, 340 women completed mailed surveys on socio-demographic characteristics, midlife symptoms (Greene Climacteric Scale©), modifiable lifestyle factors, and mental health (SF-12©) in 2001, 2004 and 2011. Hierarchical repeated-measure models were used to explore the correlates of poor mental health over time. Results The mean age [SD] at baseline was 55 [2.7] years, most were married (73%, n=248) and 18% were pre-menopausal. The model suggested that variance in mental health widened and showed a non-linear increase with age. Decrements in mental health were associated with an increase in midlife symptoms (Greene psychological scale, P <0.01; Greene somatic scale, P <0.05), time (P <0.01), poor physical health (P <0.01) and individual variance (P <0.01). Socio-demographics and lifestyle factors had little influence on mental health over time. Conclusion Findings suggest that while women’s mental health may decline during midlife, the effect is temporary; in older women, physical health and individual factors seem to be increasingly significant. This research highlights the importance of active health promotion as a means of enhancing both physical and mental health in midlife women.

An assessment of the geographical scale of recurrent gene flow in wild populations of two species of Mekong River carps (Henicorhynchus spp.)

The Mekong is the most productive river fishery in the world, and such as, the Mekong River Basin (MRB) is very important to very large human populations across the region as a source of revenue (through fishing and marketing of aquatic resources products) and as the major source for local animal protein. Threats to biodiversity in the MRB, either to the fishery sector itself or to other sectors are a major concern, even though currently, fisheries across this region are still very productive. If not managed properly however, fish population declines will cause significant economic impact and affect livelihoods of local people and will have a major impact on food security and nutrition. Biodiversity declines will undoubtedly affect food security, income and socio-economic status of people in the MRB that depend on aquatic resources. This is an indicator of unsustainable development and hence should be avoided. Genetic diversity (biodiversity) that can be measured using techniques based on DNA markers; refers to variation within and among populations within the same species or reproductive units. In a population, new genetic variation is generated by sexual recombination contributed by individuals with mutations in genes and chromosomes. Over time, populations of a species that are not reproducing together will diverge as differential impacts of selection and genetic drift change their genetic attributes. For mud carp (Henicorhynchus spp.), understanding the status of breeding units in the MRB will be important for their long term persistence, sustainability and for implementing effective management strategies. Earlier analysis of stock structure in two economically important mud carp species (Henicorhynchus siamensis and H. lobatus) in the MRB completed with mtDNA markers identified a number of populations of both species where gene flow had apparently been interrupted or reduced but applying these data directly to management unit identification is potentially compromised because information was only available about female dispersal patterns. The current study aimed to address this problem and to fully assess the extent of current gene flow (nDNA) and reproductive exchange among selected wild populations of two species of carp (Henicorhynchus spp.) of high economic importance in the MRB using combined mtDNA and nDNA markers. In combination, the data can be used to define effective management units for each species. In general, nDNA diversity for H. lobatus (with average allelic richness (A) 7.56 and average heterozygosity (Ho) 0.61) was very similar to that identified for H. siamensis (A = 6.81 and Ho = 0.75). Both mud carp species show significant but low FST estimates among populations as a result of lower genetic diversity among sampled populations compared with genetic diversity within populations that may potentially mask any 'real' population structure. Overall, population genetic structure patterns from mtDNA and nDNA in both Henicorhynchus species were largely congruent. Different population structures however, were identified for the two Henicorhynchus species across the same geographical area. Apparent co-similarity in morphology and co-distribution of these two relatively closely related species does not apparently imply parallel evolutionary histories. Differences in each species population structure likely reflect historical drainage rearrangement of the Mekong River. The data indicate that H. siamensis is likely to have occupied the Mekong system for much longer than has H. lobatus in the past. Two divergent stocks were identified for H. lobatus in the MRB below the Khone Falls while a single stock had been evident in the earlier mtDNA study. This suggests that the two Henicorhynchus species may possess different life history traits and that different patterns of gene flow has likely influenced modern genetic structure in these close congeners. In combination, results of the earlier mtDNA and the current study have implications for effective management of both Henicorhynchus species across the MRB. Currently, both species are essentially treated as a single management unit in this region. This strategy may be appropriate for H. lobatus as a single stock was evident in the main stream of the MRB, but may not be appropriate for H. siamensis as more than a single stock was identified across the same range for this species. Management strategies should consider this difference to conserve overall biodiversity (local discrete populations) and this will include maintaining natural habitat and migration pathways, provision of fish sanctuaries (refuges) and may also require close monitoring of any stock declines, a signal that may require effective recovery strategies.

Indigenous Australian women and work : an historical context

The aim of this on-going research is to interrogate the era of colonialism in Australia (1896-1966) and the denial of paid employment of Aboriginal women. The 1897 Aborigines Protection and the Restriction of the Sale of Opium Act witnessed thousands of Aboriginal people placed on Government run reserves and missions. This resulted in all aspects of their lives being controlled through state mechanisms. Under various Acts of Parliament, Aboriginal women were sent to privately owned properties to be utilised as ‘domestic servants’ through a system of forced indentured labour, which continued until the 1970’s. This paper discusses the hidden histories of these women through the use of primary sources documents including records from the Australian Department of Native Affairs and Department of Home and Health. This social history research reveals that the practice of removing Aboriginal women from their families at the age of 12 or 13 and to white families was more common practice than not. These women were often: not paid, worked up to 15 hour days, not allowed leave and subjected to many forms of abuse. Wages that were meant to be paid were re-directed to other others, including the Government. Whilst the retrieval of these ‘stolen wages’ is now an on-going issue resulting in the Queensland Government in 2002 offering AUS $2,000 to $4,000 in compensation for a lifetime of work, Aboriginal women were also asked to waive their legal right to further compensation. There are few documented histories of these Aboriginal women as told through the archives. This hidden Aboriginal Australian women’s history needs to be revealed to better understand the experiences and depth of misappropriation of Aboriginal women as domestic workers. In doing so, it also reveals a more accurate reflection of women’s work in Australia.

A psychology student’s reflections on learning psychodynamic psychotherapy in the classroom

A graduate psychology student reflects upon the experience of learning psychodynamic psychotherapy exclusively in the classroom. The majority of undergraduate psychology students have scant, and frequently inaccurate, exposure to psychodynamic psychotherapy. This appears to heavily influence students’ choice of postgraduate programs, and to reduce the likelihood that they will expose themselves to psychodynamic therapy at any stage of their careers. It is hoped that the original insights provided by this reflection will inform the development of psychodynamic psychotherapy teaching material that can be imparted effectively in undergraduate programs, even when access to patients and supervisors is not possible, so that more students are inspired to study psychodynamic psychotherapy in postgraduate programs.

Alternate healing and medicine : the roles of naturopathy, homeopathy, osteopathy, chiropractic and medical practice in the health system

This thesis is concerned with understanding the roles of four alternate healing systems and medical practice in the community's health behaviour. The four alternate systems are naturopathy, homoeopathy, osteopathy and chiropractic. The research reported developed from work supported by the Committee of Inquiry into Chiropractic, Osteopathy, Homoeopathy and Naturopathy conducted under the chairmanship of Professor E. C. Webb set up by the Australian Government in 1975. The study concentrates on the factors which influence individual clients in their decisions to consult healers for treatment. An underlying assumption is that an analysis of the processes that effect such decisions will lead to further knowledge of the community's attitudes towards the functions of alternate healing and medicine. A review of the historical backgrounds and current status of the four alternate healing systems leads to the conclusion that they differ in a variety of areas. These areas include treatment modalities, historical backgrounds, occupational development and rapprochement with medicine. Homoeopathy, osteopathy and chiropractic emerged as distinct approaches to healing late in the nineteenth century. Naturopathy tends to be a philosophy or style of life as much as a health system in its own right. Their relationships with medicine also vary; osteopathy and naturopathy receive some acceptance, some homoeopaths are tolerated, whilst chiropractic is ostracised and vilified. A common paradigm of treatment underlies all four alternate approaches to healing. They all eschew the use of synthetic pharmaceuticals and invasive treatments and accept an indigenous theory of disease and a belief in the vis medicatrix naturae or the healing power of nature. An inevitable concomitant of this paradigm is that they believe that healing and health must be self-engendered. They rest within the client and his or her actions, not within the hands, skills or power of the healer. It is these characteristics combined with the alternate healers ' claims to espouse a similar scientific rationale for their approaches, and their functioning as parallel healers to medicine, that establishes their special relationship with medicine. This relationship become s more problematic in the face of medicine's hegemony and claim to unique legitimacy as the community's sole healing system. The interaction between these systems and medical practice can be gauged through articles related to the four alternate healing systems that have appeared in the medical literature. Interest has been cyclical but appears to have markedly increased in the past two decades. In this period it has included exploratory and descriptive writing; concern with controlling and/or eradicating the healers; desire to protect an ignorant and vulnerable public and. finally understanding and exploration of what the alternate healers might have to offer. At the same time, the public or institutionalized role has been one of denial and suppression through ostracism and legal constraints. In spite of medicine's position the alternate healing systems have found growing community acceptance so that it is problematical and probably unacceptable now to consider their use as a 'deviant ' health action. Increasing interest in the characteristics of clients has provided a consensus that they are similar to the adult population and are more likely to suffer from musculoskeletal and chronic illnesses. They are no more likely to be neurotic or gullible than the general community, but probably more practical and more oriented towards an active involvement in the healing process. The impact of these issues is explored, through comparing the strategies taken into account when choosing a treatment. These include attending one of the alternate healers exclusively for a condition; attending an alternate healer and a medical practitioner for the same problem; attending a medical practitioner solely or not consulting any healer. Respondents from surveys of alternate healer clients and the general community were classified according to their use of these four strategies, and the influences on their decisions at different stages of the treatment decision making process were compared.

Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N equals 137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

Occupational health psychology

In this chapter, the occupational stress process and implications for the management of occupational health and safety in organisations are discussed. The chapter begins by introducing occupational stress as a process by which stressors (e.g. time pressure) result in strains (e.g. ill health). The consequences of stress, to both the individual and the organisation are discussed, and several key sources of occupational stress are also described. Theories of occupational stress that attempt to explain how stressors lead to strain and also describe different job resources (e.g. autonomy, support, and security) that can alleviate the detrimental effects of occupational stressors are then presented. The management of occupational stress at both the individual and organisational levels is also discussed. In the subsequent section, work-life balance and various ways work impacts on life and vice versa are described. The management of work-life conflict and the effectiveness of initiatives designed to address imbalance between work and life are then discussed. Finally, occupational health and safety is described with a particular focus on primary prevention as well as the legislative frameworks that guide psychosocial risk management in Australian organisations.

The cooling steam of the Polar Express : historical origins, properties and implications of performance capture

As the first academically rigorous interrogation of the generation of performance within the global frame of the motion capture volume, this research presents a historical contextualisation and develops and tests a set of first principles through an original series of theoretically informed, practical exercises to guide those working in the emergent space of performance capture. It contributes a new understanding of the framing of performance in The Omniscient Frame, and initiates and positions performance capture as a new and distinct interdisciplinary discourse in the fields of theatre, animation, performance studies and film.