Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Development and Application of a Multi-dimensional Strategy for Measuring Fidelity of Implementation of a Districtwide Intervention

This symposium describes a multi-dimensional strategy to examine fidelity of implementation in an authentic school district context. An existing large-district peer mentoring program provides an example. The presentation will address development of a logic model to articulate a theory of change; collaborative creation of a data set aligned with essential concepts and research questions; identification of independent, dependent, and covariate variables; issues related to use of big data that include conditioning and transformation of data prior to analysis; operationalization of a strategy to capture fidelity of implementation data from all stakeholders; and ways in which fidelity indicators might be used.

Simulating Business Processes of Manufacturing SMEs on the Cloud

Simulating the efficiency of business processes could reveal crucial bottlenecks for manufacturing companies and could lead to significant optimizations resulting in decreased time to market, more efficient resource utilization, and larger profit. While such business optimization software is widely utilized by larger companies, SMEs typically do not have the required expertise and resources to efficiently exploit these advantages. The aim of this work is to explore how simulation software vendors and consultancies can extend their portfolio to SMEs by providing business process optimization based on a cloud computing platform. By executing simulation runs on the cloud, software vendors and associated business consultancies can get access to large computing power and data storage capacity on demand, run large simulation scenarios on behalf of their clients, analyze simulation results, and advise their clients regarding process optimization. The solution is mutually beneficial for both vendor/consultant and the end-user SME. End-user companies will only pay for the service without requiring large upfront costs for software licenses and expensive hardware. Software vendors can extend their business towards the SME market with potentially huge benefits.

Análisis de la información y documentación científica española sobre el fenómeno de las smart cities, el hábitat de los nativos digitales

Estudiosos de todo el mundo se están centrando en el estudio del fenómeno de las ciudades inteligentes. La producción bibliográfica española sobre este tema ha crecido exponencialmente en los últimos años. Las nuevas ciudades inteligentes se fundamentan en nuevas visiones de desarrollo urbano que integran múltiples soluciones tecnológicas ligadas al mundo de la información y de la comunicación, todas ellas actuales y al servicio de las necesidades de la ciudad. La literatura en español sobre este tema proviene de campos tan diferentes como la Arquitectura, la Ingeniería, las Ciencias Políticas y el Derecho o las Ciencias Empresariales. La finalidad de las ciudades inteligentes es la mejora de la vida de sus ciudadanos a través de la implementación de tecnologías de la información y de la comunicación que resuelvan las necesidades de sus habitantes, por lo que los investigadores del campo de las Ciencias de la Comunicación y de la Información tienen mucho que decir. Este trabajo analiza un total de 120 textos y concluye que el fenómeno de las ciudades inteligentes será uno de los ejes centrales de la investigación multidisciplinar en los próximos años en nuestro país.

El Periodismo de Datos en España

El Periodismo de Datos se ha convertido en una de las tendencias que se están implantando en los medios. En pocos años el desarrollo y visibilidad de esta modalidad ha aumentado considerablemente y son numerosos los medios que cuentan con equipos y espacios específicos de Periodismo de Datos en el panorama internacional. Del mismo modo, existen aplicaciones, plataformas, webs, o fundaciones al margen de las empresas periodísticas cuya labor también puede ser enmarcada en este ámbito. El objetivo principal de esta contribución es establecer una radiografía de la implantación del Periodismo de Datos en España; tanto dentro como fuera de los medios. Aunque se trata de una disciplina todavía en fase de desarrollo, parece adecuado realizar un estudio exploratorio que ofrezca una panorámica de su situación actual en España.

The Internet as opportunity and challenge in contemporary social movements

This paper explores the relationship between the rise of “new” social movements (15-M and Occupy) and the Internet. The new social media gives rise to new kinds of social movements  which embed this technology from the moment of conception. The future of social movements will be characterised by movinets, which will have the effect of developing new efficient ways of activism. The movinets, with their embedded technology and capacity to circulate ideas among different spheres of reality, have a potential to alter the dynamics of social mobilisation.

Theory as Noir: a cartoon version of an academic article

Expanding on the growing movement to take academic and other erudite subjugated knowledges and distill them into some graphic form, this “cartoon” is a recounting of the author’s 2014 article,  “Big Data, Actionable Information, Scientific Knowledge and the Goal of Control,” Teknokultura, Vol. 11/no. 3, pp. 529-54.  It is an analysis of the idea of Big Data and an argument that its power relies on its instrumentalist specificity and not its extent. Mind control research in general and optogenetics in particular are the case study. Noir seems an appropriate aesthetic for this analysis, so direct quotes from the article are illustrated by publically available screen shots from iconic and unknown films of the 20th century. The only addition to the original article is a framing insight from the admirable activist network CrimethInc. 

Software Components for Serious Game Development

The large upfront investments required for game development pose a severe barrier for the wider uptake of serious games in education and training. Also, there is a lack of well-established methods and tools that support game developers at preserving and enhancing the games’ pedagogical effectiveness. The RAGE project, which is a Horizon 2020 funded research project on serious games, addresses these issues by making available reusable software components that aim to support the pedagogical qualities of serious games. In order to easily deploy and integrate these game components in a multitude of game engines, platforms and programming languages, RAGE has developed and validated a hybrid component-based software architecture that preserves component portability and interoperability. While a first set of software components is being developed, this paper presents selected examples to explain the overall system’s concept and its practical benefits. First, the Emotion Detection component uses the learners’ webcams for capturing their emotional states from facial expressions. Second, the Performance Statistics component is an add-on for learning analytics data processing, which allows instructors to track and inspect learners’ progress without bothering about the required statistics computations. Third, a set of language processing components accommodate the analysis of textual inputs of learners, facilitating comprehension assessment and prediction. Fourth, the Shared Data Storage component provides a technical solution for data storage - e.g. for player data or game world data - across multiple software components. The presented components are exemplary for the anticipated RAGE library, which will include up to forty reusable software components for serious gaming, addressing diverse pedagogical dimensions.

Leveraging Stratification in Twitter Sampling

With Tweet volumes reaching 500 million a day, sampling is inevitable for any application using Twitter data. Realizing this, data providers such as Twitter, Gnip and Boardreader license sampled data streams priced in accordance with the sample size. Big Data applications working with sampled data would be interested in working with a large enough sample that is representative of the universal dataset. Previous work focusing on the representativeness issue has considered ensuring the global occurrence rates of key terms, be reliably estimated from the sample. Present technology allows sample size estimation in accordance with probabilistic bounds on occurrence rates for the case of uniform random sampling. In this paper, we consider the problem of further improving sample size estimates by leveraging stratification in Twitter data. We analyze our estimates through an extensive study using simulations and real-world data, establishing the superiority of our method over uniform random sampling. Our work provides the technical know-how for data providers to expand their portfolio to include stratified sampled datasets, whereas applications are benefited by being able to monitor more topics/events at the same data and computing cost.

On the Virtualization of CUDA Based GPU Remoting on ARM and X86 Machines in the GVirtuS Framework

The astonishing development of diverse and different hardware platforms is twofold: on one side, the challenge for the exascale performance for big data processing and management; on the other side, the mobile and embedded devices for data collection and human machine interaction. This drove to a highly hierarchical evolution of programming models. GVirtuS is the general virtualization system developed in 2009 and firstly introduced in 2010 enabling a completely transparent layer among GPUs and VMs. This paper shows the latest achievements and developments of GVirtuS, now supporting CUDA 6.5, memory management and scheduling. Thanks to the new and improved remoting capabilities, GVirtus now enables GPU sharing among physical and virtual machines based on x86 and ARM CPUs on local workstations,computing clusters and distributed cloud appliances.

Deep Corals, Deep Learning: Moving the Deep Net Towards Real-Time Image Annotation

The mismatch between human capacity and the acquisition of Big Data such as Earth imagery undermines commitments to Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and Aichi targets. Artificial intelligence (AI) solutions to Big Data issues are urgently needed as these could prove to be faster, more accurate, and cheaper. Reducing costs of managing protected areas in remote deep waters and in the High Seas is of great importance, and this is a realm where autonomous technology will be transformative.

Layering the Internet-of-Things with Multicasting in Flow-sensors for Internet-of-services

Development of Internet-of-Services will be hampered by heterogeneous Internet-of-Things infrastructures, such as inconsistency in communicating with participating objects, connectivity between them, topology definition & data transfer, access via cloud computing for data storage etc. Our proposed solutions are applicable to a random topology scenario that allow establishing of multi-operational sensor networks out of single networks and/or single service networks with the participation of multiple networks; thus allowing virtual links to be created and resources to be shared. The designed layers are context-aware, application-oriented, and capable of representing physical objects to a management system, along with discovery of services. The reliability issue is addressed by deploying IETF supported IEEE 802.15.4 network model for low-rate wireless personal networks. Flow- sensor succeeded better results in comparison to the typical - sensor from reachability, throughput, energy consumption and diversity gain viewpoint and through allowing the multicast groups into maximum number, performances can be improved.

Methods, Models & Systems for Dealing with Some Business, Management & Engineering Problems

This keynote presentation will report some of our research work and experience on the development and applications of relevant methods, models, systems and simulation techniques in support of different types and various levels of decision making for business, management and engineering. In particular, the following topics will be covered. Modelling, multi-agent-based simulation and analysis of the allocation management of carbon dioxide emission permits in China (Nanfeng Liu & Shuliang Li Agent-based simulation of the dynamic evolution of enterprise carbon assets (Yin Zeng & Shuliang Li) A framework & system for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps: a big data perspective (Jin Xu, Zheng Li, Shuliang Li & Yanyan Zhang) Open innovation: intelligent model, social media & complex adaptive system simulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A framework, model and software prototype for modelling and simulation for deshopping behaviour and how companies respond (Shawkat Rahman & Shuliang Li) Integrating multiple agents, simulation, knowledge bases and fuzzy logic for international marketing decision making (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A Web-based hybrid intelligent system for combined conventional, digital, mobile, social media and mobile marketing strategy formulation (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) A hybrid intelligent model for Web & social media dynamics, and evolutionary and adaptive branding (Shuliang Li) A hybrid paradigm for modelling, simulation and analysis of brand virality in social media (Shuliang Li & Jim Zheng Li) Network configuration management: attack paradigms and architectures for computer network survivability (Tero Karvinen & Shuliang Li)

COMP6235 Introduction and fundamentals (I)

Fundamentals of data science and introduction to COMP6235

La Business Intelligence per il monitoraggio delle vendite: il caso Ducati Motor Holding

“La Business Intelligence per il monitoraggio delle vendite: il caso Ducati Motor Holding”. L’obiettivo di questa tesi è quello di illustrare cos’è la Business Intelligence e di mostrare i cambiamenti verificatisi in Ducati Motor Holding, in seguito alla sua adozione, in termini di realizzazione di report e dashboard per il monitoraggio delle vendite. L’elaborato inizia con una panoramica generale sulla storia e gli utilizzi della Business Intelligence nella quale vengono toccati i principali fondamenti teorici: Data Warehouse, data mining, analisi what-if, rappresentazione multidimensionale dei dati, costruzione del team di BI eccetera. Si proseguirà mediante un focus sui Big Data convogliando l’attenzione sul loro utilizzo e utilità nel settore dell’automotive (inteso nella sua accezione più generica e cioè non solo come mercato delle auto, ma anche delle moto), portando in questo modo ad un naturale collegamento con la realtà Ducati. Si apre così una breve overview sull’azienda descrivendone la storia, la struttura commerciale attraverso la quale vengono gestite le vendite e la gamma dei prodotti. Dal quarto capitolo si entra nel vivo dell’argomento: la Business Intelligence in Ducati. Si inizia descrivendo le fasi che hanno fino ad ora caratterizzato il progetto di Business Analytics (il cui obiettivo è per l'appunto introdurre la BI i azienda) per poi concentrarsi, a livello prima teorico e poi pratico, sul reporting sales e cioè sulla reportistica basata sul monitoraggio delle vendite.