Minimizar o sobrecusto da redução da capacidade de interligação com recurso ao counter-trading

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de energia

'Abnormal vertical growth' : A disorder threatening the viability of the Australian macadamia industry

'Abnormal vertical growth' (AVG) was recognised in Australia as a dysfunction of macadamia (Macadamia spp.) in the mid-1990s. Affected trees displayed unusually erect branching, and poor flowering and yield. Since 2002, the commercial significance of AVG, its cause, and strategies to alleviate its affects, has been studied. The cause is still unknown, and AVG remains a serious threat to orchard viability. AVG affects both commercial and urban macadamia. It occurs predominantly in the warmer-drier production regions of Queensland and New South Wales. An estimated 100,000 orchard trees are affected, equating to an annual loss of $ 10.5 M. In orchards, AVG occurs as aggregations of affected trees, affected tree number can increase by 4.5% per year, and yield reduction can exceed 30%. The more upright cultivars 'HAES 344' and '741' are highly susceptible, while the more spreading cultivars 'A4', 'A16' and 'A268' show tolerance. Incidence is higher (p<0.05) in soils of high permeability and good drainage. No soil chemical anomaly has been found. Fine root dry weight of AVG trees (0-15 cm depth) was found lower (p<0.05) than non-AVG. Next generation sequencing has led to the discovery of a new Bacillus sp. and a bipartite Geminivirus, which may have a role in the disease. Trunk cinctures will increase (p<0.05) yield of moderately affected trees. Further research is needed to clarify whether a pathogen is the cause, the role of soil moisture in AVG, and develop a varietal solution.

Water quality trading: credit stacking and ancillary benefits

Ecosystems can provide many services. Wetlands, for example, can help mitigate water pollution from point sources as well as non-point sources, serve as habitat for wildlife, sequester carbon and serve as a place for recreation. Studies have found that these services can have substantial value to society. The sale of ecosystem credits has been found to be a possible way to finance construction investments in wetlands and easements to farmers to take their land out of production. At the same time, selling one ecosystem service credit may not always be enough to justify the investment. Traditionally market participants have only been allowed to sell a single credit from one piece of land, but recently there have been discussions about the possibility of selling more than one credit from a piece of land because it potentially could lead to more efficient ecosystem service provision. Selling multiple credits is sometimes referred to as credit stacking. This paper is an empirical study of the potential for credit stacking applied to the services provided by wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, specifically nitrogen, phosphorus and wildlife credits. In the setting of our study where costs are discrete rather than continuous we found that wetlands are a cost-effective way to reduce the nitrogen loads from wastewater treatment plants and that stacking nitrogen, phosphorus and wildlife credits may improve social welfare while leading to a higher level of ecosystem services. However, for credit stacking to be welfare improving we found that there needs to be a substantial demand for the credit that covers the majority of the investment in wetlands, while the credit aggregator has a choice between what ecosystem projects to undertake. If the credit that covers the majority of investment is sold first and is the sole basis of the investment decision and the objective is to improve welfare, a sequential implementation of ecosystem credits is not recommended; it would not lead to an increase in the total amount of ecosystem services provided though it would increase profit for the credit producer.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.

Short Term Outcome of Neonates Born With Abnormal Umbilical Cord Arterial Blood Gases

Background: Umbilical arterial blood gas (UABG) analysis is more objective than other methods for predicting neonatal outcome. Acidemic neonates may be at risk for unfavorable outcome after birth, but all neonates with abnormal arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis do not always have poor outcome. Objectives: This study was carried out to determine the short term outcome of the neonates born with an abnormal ABG. Patients and Methods: In a cohort prospective study 120 high risk mother-neonate pairs were enrolled and UABG was taken immediately after birth. All neonates with an umbilical cord pH less than 7.2 were considered as case group and more than 7.2 as controls. Outcomes like need to resuscitation, admission to newborn services and/or NICU), seizure occurrence, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE), delayed initiation of oral feeding and length of hospital stay were recorded and compared between the two groups. P value less than 0.05 was considered as being significant. Results: Comparison of short term outcomes between normal and abnormal ABG groups were as the fallowing: need for advanced resuscitation 4 vs. 0 (P = 0.001), NICU admission 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), convulsion 2 vs. 0 (P = 0.496), HIE 17 vs. 4 (P = 0.002), delay to start oral feeding 16 vs. 4 (P = 0.001), mean hospital stay 4 vs. 3 days (P = 0.001). None of the neonates died in study groups. Conclusions: An umbilical cord PH less than 7.2 immediately after birth can be used as a prognostic factor for unfavorable short term outcome in newborns.

Essays on Emissions Trading Markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Development and Verification of Control and Protection Strategies in Hybrid AC/DC Power Systems for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

Reputation and stock abnormal returns

A relação entre reputação organizacional e desempenho nanceiro das empresas tem sido alvo de estudo ao longo dos últimos anos. Empresas com elevados padrões de reputação apresentam maior probabilidade de manter um elevado e sustentado desempenho ao longo do tempo. Seguindo esta linha de pensamento, acionistas que investem em empresas com elevada reputação exigem menos rendibilidades, uma vez que, à partida, o risco a que estão sujeitos é menor. Com o intuito de estudar se empresas com elevada reputação, medida pela presença no ranking de 2015 World's Most Admired Companies da revista Fortune, rejeitam a hipótese das rendibilidades anormais serem iguais a zero, garantindo, por sua vez, um risco inferior, foram utilizados dados em painel que incluem 24,486 observações, entre 26 de dezembro 2014 e 1 de janeiro 2016, de uma amostra total de 462 empresas norte americanas cotadas nos índices bolsistas NYSE e NASDAQ.

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.

Abnormal primary and permanent dentitions with ectodermal symptoms predict WNT10A deficiency

BACKGROUND: The WNT10A protein is critical for the development of ectodermal appendages. Variants in the WNT10A gene may be associated with a spectrum of ectodermal abnormalities including extensive tooth agenesis. METHODS: In seven patients with severe tooth agenesis we identified anomalies in primary dentition and additional ectodermal symptoms, and assessed WNT10A mutations by genetic analysis. RESULTS: Investigation of primary dentition revealed peg-shaped crowns of primary mandibular incisors and three individuals had agenesis of at least two primary teeth. The permanent dentition was severely affected in all individuals with a mean of 21 missing teeth. Primary teeth were most often present in positions were succedaneous teeth were missing. Furthermore, most existing molars had taurodontism. Light, brittle or coarse hair was reported in all seven individuals, hyperhidrosis of palms and soles in six individuals and nail anomalies in two individuals. The anomalies in primary dentition preceded most of the additional ectodermal symptoms. Genetic analysis revealed that all seven individuals were homozygous or compound heterozygous for WNT10A mutations resulting in C107X, E222X and F228I. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that tooth agenesis and/or peg-shaped crowns of primary mandibular incisors, severe oligodontia of permanent dentition as well as ectodermal symptoms of varying severity may be predictors of bi-allelic WNT10A mutations of importance for diagnosis, counselling and follow-up.

Regionalism as trading blocks, a comparative analysis of the legal structure of the EC and NAFTA within the context of the WTO

Geography has almost become obsolete. The world’s goods and services can now be accessed instantaneously by electronic commerce. Small and medium sized countries have felt the cold winds of change blowing, and have adopted the “safety in numbers” philosophy. Regional organisations throughout the world have sprung up, with their original raison d'être the encouragement and development of regional trading blocks. Two of the most developed regional groupings are the EU/EC and NAFTA. These two organisations represent two quite different philosophies of regional trade groupings, with contrasting legal structures. The advent of Trade Globalisation, with the founding of the WTO has brought these two approaches into confrontation, as each side of the Atlantic Ocean tries to influence the development on the naissant WTO. This paper examines the two contrasting legal structures, and the conflict on an inter regional level that they are engendering.

Short-Term Trading for a Wind-PV Power Producer in an Electricity Market

This paper deals with the problem of coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic systems in order to find the optimal bid to submit in a pool-based electricity market. The coordination of wind and photovoltaic systems presents uncertainties not only due to electricity market prices, but also with wind and photovoltaic power forecast. Electricity markets are characterized by financial penalties in case of deficit or excess of generation. So, the aim o this work is to reduce these financial penalties and maximize the expected profit of the power producer. The problem is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The proposed approach is validated with real data of pool-based electricity market of Iberian Peninsula.

Early Modern Trading Networks in Europe. Cooperation and the case of Simon Ruiz.

In the early modern period, trade became a truly global phenomenon. The logistics, financial and organizational complexity associated with it increased in order to connect distant geographies and merchants from different backgrounds. How did these merchants prevent their partners from dishonesty in a time where formal institutions and legislation did not traverse these different worlds? This book studies the mechanisms and criteria of cooperation in early modern trading networks. It uses an interdisciplinary approach, through the case study of a Castilian long-distance merchant of the sixteenth century, Simon Ruiz, who traded within the limits of the Portuguese and Spanish overseas empires. Early Modern Trading Networks in Europe discusses the importance of reciprocity mechanisms, trust and reputation in the context of early modern business relations, using network analysis methodology, combining quantitative data with qualitative information. It considers how cooperation and prevention could simultaneously create a business relationship, and describes the mechanisms of control, policing and punishment used to avoid opportunism and deception among a group of business partners. Using bills of exchange and correspondence from Simon Ruiz’s private archive, it charts the evolution of this business network through time, debating which criteria should be included or excluded from business networks, as well as the emergence of standards. This book intends to put forward a new approach to early modern trade which focuses on individuals interacting in self-organized structures, rather than on states or empires. It shows how indirect reciprocity was much more frequent than direct reciprocity among early modern merchants and how informal norms, like ostracism or signaling, helped to prevent defection and deception in an effective way.

Advanced neuroimaging methodologies to improve connectivity detection in normal and abnormal language brain networks

The language connectome was in-vivo investigated using multimodal non-invasive quantitative MRI. In PPA patients (n=18) recruited by the IRCCS ISNB, Bologna, cortical thickness measures showed a predominant reduction on the left hemisphere (p<0.005) with respect to matched healthy controls (HC) (n=18), and an accuracy of 86.1% in discrimination from Alzheimer’s disease patients (n=18). The left temporal and para-hippocampal gyri significantly correlated (p<0.01) with language fluency. In PPA patients (n=31) recruited by the Northwestern University Chicago, DTI measures were longitudinally evaluated (2-years follow-up) under the supervision of Prof. M. Catani, King’s College London. Significant differences with matched HC (n=27) were found, tract-localized at baseline and widespread in the follow-up. Language assessment scores correlated with arcuate (AF) and uncinate (UF) fasciculi DTI measures. In left-ischemic stroke patients (n=16) recruited by the NatBrainLab, King’s College London, language recovery was longitudinally evaluated (6-months follow-up). Using arterial spin labelling imaging a significant correlation (p<0.01) between language recovery and cerebral blood flow asymmetry, was found in the middle cerebral artery perfusion, towards the right. In HC (n=29) recruited by the DIBINEM Functional MR Unit, University of Bologna, an along-tract algorithm was developed suitable for different tractography methods, using the Laplacian operator. A higher left superior temporal gyrus and precentral operculum AF connectivity was found (Talozzi L et al., 2018), and lateralized UF projections towards the left dorsal orbital cortex. In HC (n=50) recruited in the Human Connectome Project, a new tractography-driven approach was developed for left association fibres, using a principal component analysis. The first component discriminated cortical areas typically connected by the AF, suggesting a good discrimination of cortical areas sharing a similar connectivity pattern. The evaluation of morphological, microstructural and metabolic measures could be used as in-vivo biomarkers to monitor language impairment related to neurodegeneration or as surrogate of cognitive rehabilitation/interventional treatment efficacy.