The “War on Terror” and the Principle of Distinction in International Humanitarian La

Las nuevas amenazas a la seguridad que han surgido en los últimos años están poniendo seriamente en juego la importancia y la implementación del derecho internacional humanitario. Este artículo investiga el impacto de la guerra del terror en el principio de distinción en el derecho internacional humanitario. Examina, de forma específica, prácticas estatales, por ejemplo, de los Estados Unidos, que han cedido frente al surgimiento de nuevas reglas relativas al principio de distinción. Para esto, se hace un análisis de dicho principio bajo dos perspectivas: blancos concretos y captura

Equilibrium Principle in Colombian Public Contracting

Public contracting in Colombia is conflicting and inefficient. It frequently leads to damage to State property. The Colombian legal system cannot assure efficient and transparent public contracting. The cause is the institutional environment characterized by high transaction costs. Colombian law worsens the process by recognizing the principle of economic equilibrium in public contracts. This principle increasese contract incompleteness and renders impossible the use of economic incentives to control the opportunism of the economic agents. The authors present the hypothesis that the economic equilibrium principle increases the conflictive nature of public contracting. They test the hypothesis empirically. The first section of the paper presents a summary of the literature on transaction costs economics, as well as the legal literature on the historical origin and the content of the economic equilibrium principle. The second section describes the methodology of the empirical study. The third section shows the empirical evidence of the effects that the economic equilibrium principle exerts over the public contracting. The last section presents the conclusions.

Libertades individuales y acción colectiva

Este libro resulta de una lectura crítica de la historia y la evolución que han tenido importantes discusiones teoricas acerca del liberalismo y la acción colectiva. Se destacan algunas relaciones entre los aportes de diversos autores de la economía, la sociología, la filosofía, la ciencia política y la psicología. En especial se ofrece una presentación analítica de algunas de las relaciones más relevantes entre las libertades individuales y las oportunidades factibles en procesos de escogencia y de acción individual y colectiva. La propia cosecha del autor permite seguir tres hallazgos, los cuales pueden generar nuevas perspectivas para investigadores interesados en estos temas, estos son: una propuesta conceptual sobre las características y los requerimientos de la libertad individual.

Piecemeal Oligopoly, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Trade Policy.

Este artículo analiza el efecto sistemático de la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio, cuando un gobierno local debe evaluar políticas comerciales estratégicas lineales y cuadráticas. Este ejercicio se realiza para modelos de mercado Cournot y Bertran. El modelo prueba que tanto el esquema lineal como el cuadrático tienen el mismo efecto sobre el bienestar social de los países, y que la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio domestica lleva a los gobiernos a reducir los subsidios a las exportaciones o bajan los impuestos a las exportaciones, de acuerdo a la variable estratégica elegida por las firmas. La tasa de cambio extranjera tiene diferentes efectos dependiendo de si las firmas producen bajos rendimientos a escalas constantes o decrecientes.

La disonancia cognitiva y trampa de la memoria en decisiones de Inversión: caso colombiano

Este documento es el resultado de una investigación bajo el enfoque de Finanzas Corporativas del Comportamiento, disciplina relevante en el mundo financiero desde el 2002 y que hasta el momento poco se ha investigado en Colombia. Esta difiere del supuesto tradicional de la racionalidad de los individuos en la toma de decisiones financieras, ya que pueden ser influenciadas por sesgos cognitivos y emocionales que la teoría ortodoxa no tiene en cuenta en sus supuestos. Esta investigación busca indagar, desde el punto de vista conceptual y mediante el análisis de resultados de estudio de campo con operadores del mercado bursátil colombiano, sobre la posible presencia de elementos comportamentales en las decisiones de inversión. Los sesgos que se evaluaron fueron: disonancia cognitiva, heurístico de disponibilidad y sesgo de confirmación. Para la recolección de fuentes primarias, una encuesta fue enviada a los operadores Colombianos, categorizados en operadores con experiencia y operadores jóvenes. Después del filtro, 142 encuestas fueron seleccionadas para el análisis. Los principales hallazgos fueron que los jóvenes son más propensos a experimentar disonancia cognitiva y heurístico de disponibilidad y en ambas categorías, los sesgos analizados influencian medianamente la toma de decisiones de inversión.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Measuring the local economic impact of universities : an approach that considers uncertainty. 'La medición del impacto económico local de las universidades : un enfoque que considera la incertidumbre'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Teaching English to children : from practice to principle. 'Enseñando inglés a los niños : de la práctica a la teoría'.

El libro comprende un total de 22 artículos escritos por diversos autores acerca de la enseñanza del inglés en distintos países, intentando partir de la práctica para llegar a sus fundamentos teóricos. Va dirigido a los profesores de lengua inglesa y ofrece una visión general sobre las ideas y la práctica de la enseñanza del inglés a los niños. Incluye un estudio detallado de técnicas, metodología, diseño del currículo y programación a partir de la práctica. En los últimos capítulos hay una amplia introducción de los aspectos teóricos del tema.

Improving awareness about the meaning of the principle of mathematical induction. 'Fomentar la conciencia sobre el significado del principio de inducción matemática'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

Enhancing emotion-based learning in decision-making under uncertainty

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

An ensemble approach to uncertainty estimation for satellite-based rainfall estimates

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability.