The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

Structure-based energetics of protein interfaces guides foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine design

Virus capsids are primed for disassembly, yet capsid integrity is key to generating a protective immune response. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids comprise identical pentameric protein subunits held together by tenuous noncovalent interactions and are often unstable. Chemically inactivated or recombinant empty capsids, which could form the basis of future vaccines, are even less stable than live virus. Here we devised a computational method to assess the relative stability of protein-protein interfaces and used it to design improved candidate vaccines for two poorly stable, but globally important, serotypes of FMDV: O and SAT2. We used a restrained molecular dynamics strategy to rank mutations predicted to strengthen the pentamer interfaces and applied the results to produce stabilized capsids. Structural analyses and stability assays confirmed the predictions, and vaccinated animals generated improved neutralizing-antibody responses to stabilized particles compared to parental viruses and wild-type capsids.

Towards a meta-analysis and toolkit for port-related socio-economic impacts: a review of socio-economic impact studies conducted for seaports

Port authorities increasingly need to communicate with a variety of external stakeholders in order to maintain and strengthen the societal acceptance of seaport activities. The availability of socio-economic impact studies on port authority and regional development agency websites has often made this information accessible to the public at large. However, the differences in methodologies adopted, in terms of selecting, defining and measuring various types of socio-economic impacts, sometimes lead to misconceptions as well as misleading comparisons across ports within and between regions. In this paper, we suggest guidelines for the design and application of a potential best practice from an interregional perspective (UK, France and Belgium), based on research in the framework of a European Commission co-funded project, ‘IMPACTE’. The paper also aims to develop guidelines for comparing the socio-economic impacts of ports across regional and national borders and discusses the development of a European port economic impact measurement toolkit. We analyse a sample of 33 recent socio-economic impact assessment reports in terms of methodologies adopted and types of impacts measured. The review shows a great diversity among these studies, leading to important differences between the impacts of port activity communicated to stakeholders.

A review of the cognitive effects observed in humans following acute supplementation with flavonoids, and their associated mechanisms of action

Flavonoids are polyphenolic compounds found in varying concentrations in many plant-based foods. Recent studies suggest that flavonoids can be beneficial to both cognitive and physiological health. Long term flavonoid supplementation over a period of weeks or months has been extensively investigated and reviewed, particularly with respect to cognitive ageing and neurodegenerative disease. Significantly less focus has been directed towards the short term effects of single doses of flavonoids on cognition. Here, we review 21 such studies with particular emphasis on the subclass and dose of flavonoids administered, the cognitive domains affected by flavonoid supplementation, and the effect size of the response. The emerging evidence suggests that flavonoids may be beneficial to attention, working memory, and psychomotor processing speed in a general population. Episodic memory effects are less well defined and may be restricted to child or older adult populations. The evidence also points towards a dose-dependent effect of flavonoids, but the physiological mechanisms of action remain unclear. Overall, there is encouraging evidence that flavonoid supplementation can benefit cognitive outcomes within an acute time frame of 0–6 h. But larger studies, combining cognitive and physiological measures, are needed to strengthen the evidence base.

Noether-type discrete conserved quantities arising from a finite element approximation of a variational problem

In this work, we prove a weak Noether-type Theorem for a class of variational problems that admit broken extremals. We use this result to prove discrete Noether-type conservation laws for a conforming finite element discretisation of a model elliptic problem. In addition, we study how well the finite element scheme satisfies the continuous conservation laws arising from the application of Noether’s first theorem (1918). We summarise extensive numerical tests, illustrating the conservation of the discrete Noether law using the p-Laplacian as an example and derive a geometric-based adaptive algorithm where an appropriate Noether quantity is the goal functional.

The Hugh Sinclair Unit of Human Nutrition – 20 years of research 1995–2015

The Hugh Sinclair Unit of Human Nutrition (HSUHN) at the University of Reading was founded in October 1995 with the appointment of Christine Williams OBE as the first Hugh Sinclair Chair in Human Nutrition. This was made possible by the competitively won funds from the estate and legacy of the late Professor Hugh Macdonald Sinclair (1910–1990). The vision for the newly established HSUHN was to ‘strengthen the evidence base for dietary recommendations for prevention of degenerative chronic diseases’. This has remained the research focus of the HSUHN under the leadership of Professors Christine Williams (1995–2005), Ian Rowland (2006–2013) and Julie Lovegrove (2014-present). Our mission is to improve population health and evaluate mechanisms of action for the effects of dietary components on health, which reflects Hugh Sinclair’s life ambition within nutritional science. Over the past 20 years, the HSUHN has developed an international reputation within the nutrition science community, and in recognition of the 20th anniversary, this paper highlights Hugh Sinclair’s contributions to the field of nutrition and key research achievements by members of the Unit.

Effects of infant cleft lip on adult gaze and perceptions of ‘cuteness'

Objective: Early mother-infant interactions are impaired in the context of infant cleft lip, and are associated with adverse child psychological outcomes, but the nature of these interaction difficulties is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to explore adult gaze behaviour and cuteness perception, which are particularly important during early social exchanges, in response to infants with cleft lip, in order to investigate potential foundations for the interaction difficulties seen in this population. Methods: Using an eye-tracker, eye movements were recorded as adult participants viewed images of infant faces with and without cleft lip. Participants also rated each infant on a scale of cuteness. Results: Participants fixated significantly longer on the mouths of infants with cleft lip, which occurred at the expense of fixation on eyes. Severity of cleft lip was associated with the strength of fixation bias, with participants looking even longer at the mouths of infants with the most severe clefts. Infants with cleft lip were rated as significantly less cute than unaffected infants. Men rated infants as less cute than women overall, but gave particularly low ratings to infants with cleft lip Conclusions: Results demonstrate that the limited disturbance in infant facial configuration of cleft lip can significantly alter adult gaze patterns and cuteness perception. Our findings could have important implications for early interactions, and may help in the development of interventions to foster healthy development in infants with cleft lip.

Revisiting 2D numerical models for the 19th century outbursts of eta Carinae

We present here new results of two-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the eruptive events of the 1840s (the great) and the 1890s (the minor) eruptions suffered by the massive star eta Carinae (Car). The two bipolar nebulae commonly known as the Homunculus and the little Homunculus (LH) were formed from the interaction of these eruptive events with the underlying stellar wind. We assume here an interacting, non-spherical multiple-phase wind scenario to explain the shape and the kinematics of both Homunculi, but adopt a more realistic parametrization of the phases of the wind. During the 1890s eruptive event, the outflow speed decreased for a short period of time. This fact suggests that the LH is formed when the eruption ends, from the impact of the post-outburst eta Car wind (that follows the 1890s event) with the eruptive flow (rather than by the collision of the eruptive flow with the pre-outburst wind, as claimed in previous models; Gonzalez et al.). Our simulations reproduce quite well the shape and the observed expansion speed of the large Homunculus. The LH (which is embedded within the large Homunculus) becomes Rayleigh-Taylor unstable and develop filamentary structures that resemble the spatial features observed in the polar caps. In addition, we find that the interior cavity between the two Homunculi is partially filled by material that is expelled during the decades following the great eruption. This result may be connected with the observed double-shell structure in the polar lobes of the eta Car nebula. Finally, as in previous work, we find the formation of tenuous, equatorial, high-speed features that seem to be related to the observed equatorial skirt of eta Car.

THE ROLE OF DIFFUSIVITY QUENCHING IN FLUX-TRANSPORT DYNAMO MODELS

In the nonlinear phase of a dynamo process, the back-reaction of the magnetic field upon the turbulent motion results in a decrease of the turbulence level and therefore in a suppression of both the magnetic field amplification (the alpha-quenching effect) and the turbulent magnetic diffusivity (the eta-quenching effect). While the former has been widely explored, the effects of eta-quenching in the magnetic field evolution have rarely been considered. In this work, we investigate the role of the suppression of diffusivity in a flux-transport solar dynamo model that also includes a nonlinear alpha-quenching term. Our results indicate that, although for alpha-quenching the dependence of the magnetic field amplification with the quenching factor is nearly linear, the magnetic field response to eta-quenching is nonlinear and spatially nonuniform. We have found that the magnetic field can be locally amplified in this case, forming long-lived structures whose maximum amplitude can be up to similar to 2.5 times larger at the tachocline and up to similar to 2 times larger at the center of the convection zone than in models without quenching. However, this amplification leads to unobservable effects and to a worse distribution of the magnetic field in the butterfly diagram. Since the dynamo cycle period increases when the efficiency of the quenching increases, we have also explored whether the eta-quenching can cause a diffusion-dominated model to drift into an advection-dominated regime. We have found that models undergoing a large suppression in eta produce a strong segregation of magnetic fields that may lead to unsteady dynamo-oscillations. On the other hand, an initially diffusion-dominated model undergoing a small suppression in eta remains in the diffusion-dominated regime.

Ace gene dosage influences the development of renovascular hypertension

P>1. Clinical and experimental evidence highlights the importance of the renin-angiotensin system in renovascular hypertension. Furthermore, genetic factors affecting angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) could influence the development of renovascular hypertension. 2. To test the effect of small gene perturbations on the development of renovascular hypertension, mice harbouring two or three copies of the Ace gene were submitted to 4 weeks of two-kidney, one-clip (2K1C) hypertension. Blood pressure (BP), cardiac hypertrophy, baroreflex sensitivity and blood pressure and heart rate variability were assessed and compared between the different groups. 3. The increase in BP induced by 2K1C was higher in mice with three copies of the Ace gene compared with mice with only two copies (46 vs 23 mmHg, respectively). Moreover, there was a 3.8-fold increase in the slope of the left ventricle mass/BP relationship in mice with three copies of the Ace gene. Micewith three copies of the Ace gene exhibited greater increases in cardiac and serum ACE activity than mice with only two copies of the gene. Both baroreflex bradycardia and tachycardia were significantly depressed in mice with three copies of the Ace gene after induction of 2K1C hypertension. The variance in basal systolic BP was greater in mice with three copies of the Ace gene after 2K1C hypertension compared with those with only two copies of the gene (106 vs 54%, respectively). In addition, the low-frequency component of the pulse interval was higher mice with three copies of the Ace gene after 2K1C hypertension compared with those with only two (168 vs 86%, respectively). Finally, in mice with three copies of the Ace gene, renovascular hypertension induced a 6.1-fold increase in the sympathovagal balance compared with a 3.2-fold increase in mice with only two copies of the gene. 4. Collectively, these data provide direct evidence that small genetic disturbances in ACE levels per se have an influence on haemodynamic, cardiac mass and autonomic nervous system responses in mice under pathological perturbation.

Phylogenetic relationships and infrageneric classification of Epidendrum subgenus Amphiglottium (Laeliinae, Orchidaceae)

Epidendrum L. is the largest genus of Orchidaceae in the Neotropical region; it has an impressive morphological diversification, which imposes difficulties in delimitation of both infrageneric and interspecific boundaries. In this study, we review infrageneric boundaries within the subgenus Amphiglottium and try to contribute to the understanding of morphological diversification and taxa delimitation within this group. We tested the monophyly of the subgenus Amphiglottium sect. Amphiglottium, expanding previous phylogenetic investigations and reevaluated previous infrageneric classifications proposed. Sequence data from the trnL-trnF region were analyzed with both parsimony and maximum likelihood criteria. AFLP markers were also obtained and analyzed with phylogenetic and principal coordinate analyses. Additionally, we obtained chromosome numbers for representative species within the group. The results strengthen the monophyly of the subgenus Amphiglottium but do not support the current classification system proposed by previous authors. Only section Tuberculata comprises a well-supported monophyletic group, with sections Carinata and Integra not supported. Instead of morphology, biogeographical and ecological patterns are reflected in the phylogenetic signal in this group. This study also confirms the large variability of chromosome numbers for the subgenus Amphiglottium (numbers ranging from 2n = 24 to 2n = 240), suggesting that polyploidy and hybridization are probably important mechanisms of speciation within the group.

Multicenter Analysis of Glucocerebrosidase Mutations in Parkinson`s Disease

Background Recent studies indicate an increased frequency of mutations in the gene encoding glucocerebrosidase (GBA), a deficiency of which causes Gaucher`s disease, among patients with Parkinson`s disease. We aimed to ascertain the frequency of GBA mutations in an ethnically diverse group of patients with Parkinson`s disease. Methods Sixteen centers participated in our international, collaborative study: five from the Americas, six from Europe, two from Israel, and three from Asia. Each center genotyped a standard DNA panel to permit comparison of the genotyping results across centers. Genotypes and phenotypic data from a total of 5691 patients with Parkinson`s disease (780 Ashkenazi Jews) and 4898 controls (387 Ashkenazi Jews) were analyzed, with multivariate logistic-regression models and the Mantel-Haenszel procedure used to estimate odds ratios across centers. Results All 16 centers could detect two GBA mutations, L444P and N370S. Among Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 15% of patients and 3% of controls, and among non-Ashkenazi Jewish subjects, either mutation was found in 3% of patients and less than 1% of controls. GBA was fully sequenced for 1883 non-Ashkenazi Jewish patients, and mutations were identified in 7%, showing that limited mutation screening can miss half the mutant alleles. The odds ratio for any GBA mutation in patients versus controls was 5.43 across centers. As compared with patients who did not carry a GBA mutation, those with a GBA mutation presented earlier with the disease, were more likely to have affected relatives, and were more likely to have atypical clinical manifestations. Conclusions Data collected from 16 centers demonstrate that there is a strong association between GBA mutations and Parkinson`s disease.

On the first terrestrial ostracod of the Superfamily Cytheroidea (Crustacea, Ostracoda): description of Intrepidocythere ibipora n. gen. n. sp from forest leaf litter in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Of the three superfamilies of Ostracoda present in fresh water, only the Cytheroidea had thus far no records in terrestrial environments. Here, we report on a new genus and species, Intrepidocythere ibipora n. gen. n. sp., of the ostracod superfamily Cytheroidea, from forest leaf litter in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Judging from morphological similarities, this new genus is believed to be closely related to the genus Elpidium. Possible pathways that led to the colonisation of terrestrial habitats are discussed, and an overview is given on the distribution of the known terrestrial ostracod lineages. The present findings strengthen the idea that terrestrial ostracods are more common than previously thought, at least in tropical areas.

Community perceptions of four protected areas in the Northern portion of the Cerrado hotspot, Brazil

Establishing effective networks of protected areas (PAS) is one of the major goals of conservation strategies worldwide. However, the success of PAS in promoting biodiversity conservation depends on their integration to local and regional contexts, reducing and mitigating human impacts originating from buffer zones. Community perceptions affect interactions between residents and PAS, and thereby conservation effectiveness. Research at Tocantins state (northern Brazilian Cerrado), aimed to analyse local community perceptions of four PAs, discussing how different factors may influence these. Perceptions were assessed through standardized interviews applied to PA employees and 275 local inhabitants. There was modest community participation in PA establishment and management. Residents were aware of the PAS` existence, but were unfamiliar with their goals. Length of residency and occupation of inhabitants influenced their PA perceptions, shaping different people-park relations in each of the four studied PAs. Involvement of local residents in PA planning and management represents a central strategy to strengthen local support for PAS over the long term. In those areas that still have settlements inside their boundaries, community relocation should follow a careful participatory process to avoid significant changes in local perceptions and attitudes towards these PAS, crucial for conserving Brazilian biodiversity.

Absence of Melatonin Induces Night-Time Hepatic Insulin Resistance and Increased Gluconeogenesis Due to Stimulation of Nocturnal Unfolded Protein Response

It is known that the circadian rhythm in hepatic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase expression (a limiting catalytic step of gluconeogenesis) and hepatic glucose production is maintained by both daily oscillation in autonomic inputs to the liver and night feeding behavior. However, increased glycemia and reduced melatonin (Mel) levels have been recently shown to coexist in diabetic patients at the end of the night period. In parallel, pinealectomy (PINX) is known to cause glucose intolerance with increased basal glycemia exclusively at the end of the night. The mechanisms that underlie this metabolic feature are not completely understood. Here, we demonstrate that PINX rats show night-time hepatic insulin resistance characterized by reduced insulin-stimulated RAC-alpha serine/threonine-protein kinase phosphorylation and increased phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase expression. In addition, PINX rats display increased conversion of pyruvate into glucose at the end of the night. The regulatory mechanism suggests the participation of unfolded protein response (UPR), because PINX induces night-time increase in activating transcription factor 6 expression and prompts a circadian fashion of immunoglobulin heavy chain-binding protein, activating transcription factor 4, and CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein-homologous protein expression with Zenith values at the dark period. PINX also caused a night-time increase in Tribble 3 and regulatory-associated protein of mammalian target of rapamycin; both were reduced in liver of PINX rats treated with Mel. Treatment of PINX rats with 4-phenyl butyric acid, an inhibitor of UPR, restored night-time hepatic insulin sensitivity and abrogated gluconeogenesis in PINX rats. Altogether, the present data show that a circadian oscillation of UPR occurs in the liver due to the absence of Mel. The nocturnal UPR activation is related with night-time hepatic insulin resistance and increased gluconeogenesis in PINX rats. (Endocrinology 152: 1253-1263, 2011)