Keeping the Germans out of the straits: The five ottoman dreadnought thesis reconsidered

This article contests Sean McMeekin’s claims concerning Russian culpability for the First World War. McMeekin maintains that Ottoman rearmament, particularly the purchase of several battleships released onto the global arms market by South American states, threatened to create a situation where the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be outclassed by its Ottoman opposite number. Rather than waiting for this to happen, the tsarist regime chose to go to war. Yet, contrary to McMeekin’s claims, the Ottoman naval expansion never assumed threatening dimensions because the Porte was unable to purchase battleships from Chile or Argentina. As a result, it provided no incentive for Russia to go to war in 1914.

An analysis of herd behavior in Latin American stock markets

This research investigates whether the major stock markets in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina) exhibited herd behavior over the period January 2, 2002 to June 30, 2014, using the variation in the returns overall and by sector in the most representative stock market index in each country, using the model proposed by Christie y Huang (1995) -- The results do not reveal any herd behavior in the total market, or in the sectors of the markets examined in the study

Investigating output accuracy for a discrete event simulation model and an agent based simulation model

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store’s fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

“To be or not to be retained… Thats' the question!” Retention, self-esteem, self-concept, achievement goals, and grades

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The meaning of implied volatility in pricing stock options traded in options markets

Ph.D. in the Faculty of Business Administration

Pulse Room ou comment réécrire son environnement en rendant une matérialité à la trace numérique

Pour respecter les droits d’auteur, la version électronique de ce mémoire a été dépouillée d'un document visuel. La version intégrale du mémoire a été déposée au Service de la gestion des documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION HARDENABLE AL-SC-ZR-HF QUATERNARY ALLOYS THROUGH THERMODYNAMIC MODELING, AND ROOM-TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED TEMPERATURE HARDNESS

Aluminum alloyed with small atomic fractions of Sc, Zr, and Hf has been shown to exhibit high temperature microstructural stability that may improve high temperature mechanical behavior. These quaternary alloys were designed using thermodynamic modeling to increase the volume fraction of precipitated tri-aluminide phases to improve thermal stability. When aged during a multi-step, isochronal heat treatment, two compositions showed a secondary room-temperature hardness peak up to 700 MPa at 450°C. Elevated temperature hardness profiles also indicated an increase in hardness from 200-300°C, attributed to the precipitation of Al3Sc, however, no secondary hardness response was observed from the Al3Zr or Al3Hf phases in this alloy.

Pulse Room ou comment réécrire son environnement en rendant une matérialité à la trace numérique

Pour respecter les droits d’auteur, la version électronique de ce mémoire a été dépouillée d'un document visuel. La version intégrale du mémoire a été déposée au Service de la gestion des documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Keeping Variables within Bounds: Using Information between Observations

This research develops an econometric framework to analyze time series processes with bounds. The framework is general enough that it can incorporate several different kinds of bounding information that constrain continuous-time stochastic processes between discretely-sampled observations. It applies to situations in which the process is known to remain within an interval between observations, by way of either a known constraint or through the observation of extreme realizations of the process. The main statistical technique employs the theory of maximum likelihood estimation. This approach leads to the development of the asymptotic distribution theory for the estimation of the parameters in bounded diffusion models. The results of this analysis present several implications for empirical research. The advantages are realized in the form of efficiency gains, bias reduction and in the flexibility of model specification. A bias arises in the presence of bounding information that is ignored, while it is mitigated within this framework. An efficiency gain arises, in the sense that the statistical methods make use of conditioning information, as revealed by the bounds. Further, the specification of an econometric model can be uncoupled from the restriction to the bounds, leaving the researcher free to model the process near the bound in a way that avoids bias from misspecification. One byproduct of the improvements in model specification is that the more precise model estimation exposes other sources of misspecification. Some processes reveal themselves to be unlikely candidates for a given diffusion model, once the observations are analyzed in combination with the bounding information. A closer inspection of the theoretical foundation behind diffusion models leads to a more general specification of the model. This approach is used to produce a set of algorithms to make the model computationally feasible and more widely applicable. Finally, the modeling framework is applied to a series of interest rates, which, for several years, have been constrained by the lower bound of zero. The estimates from a series of diffusion models suggest a substantial difference in estimation results between models that ignore bounds and the framework that takes bounding information into consideration.

How long is the memory of the US stock market?

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?

G7 Stock Markets: Who is The First to Defeat The DCCA Correlation?

Following the methodology of Ferreira and Dionísio (2016), the objective of this paper is to analyze the behavior stock markets in the G7 countries and find which of those countries is the first to reach levels of long-range correlations that are not significant. We carry out this analysis using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, to check for the existence of long-range dependence in time series. The existence of long-range dependence could be understood as a possibility of EMH violation. This analysis remains interesting because studies are not conclusive about the existence or not of long memory in stock return rates.

Shopper Centric Category Management in Convenience Stores: a Qualitative Study

The literature shows that category management is an important concept and tool for retailers and suppliers, but that there is a trend to move to a more shopper-centric category management approach, linked to the shoppermarketing approach. However, the knowledge on this issue is scarce on some retailing sectors, like convenience stores. The present study is focused on convenience stores, with the main purpose of finding out to what extent non-major food retailers successfully adopt a shopper-centric category management. The study is relevant in order to evaluate if a more shopper-centric approach is adequate to smaller companies/stores. To accomplish that goal, an exploratory qualitative study was conducted among convenience store retailers and suppliers. Six semistructured face-to-face interviews were conducted with Commercial Directors and Trade Marketing Managers. This data was complemented with thirteen interviews with shopper marketing experts. The data was analyzed using thematic content analysis technique, identifying themes, categories, subcategories, units of meaning and relations. The results revealed that convenience store retailers use some of the principles and techniques of the shopper-marketing and shopper-centric category management approaches, which they do in a non-standardized and non-formal approach or process. Their suppliers (the manufacturers) do it in a more formal and structured manner, probably as a result of previous interaction with major supermarkets chains. Both direct and indirect evidences of a shopper-centric approach were found, which, however, were slight, discrete and not formal.