First-passage and escape problems in the Feller process

The Feller process is an one-dimensional diffusion process with linear drift and state-dependent diffusion coefficient vanishing at the origin. The process is positive definite and it is this property along with its linear character that have made Feller process a convenient candidate for the modeling of a number of phenomena ranging from single-neuron firing to volatility of financial assets. While general properties of the process have long been well known, less known are properties related to level crossing such as the first-passage and the escape problems. In this work we thoroughly address these questions.

T cell receptor-ligand interactions: a conformational preequilibrium or an induced fit.

Kinetic parameters of T cell receptor (TCR) interactions with its ligand have been proposed to control T cell activation. Analysis of kinetic data obtained has so far produced conflicting insights; here, we offer a consideration of this problem. As a model system, association and dissociation of a soluble TCR (sT1) and its specific ligand, an azidobenzoic acid derivative of the peptide SYIPSAEK-(ABA)I (residues 252-260 from Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite protein), bound to class I MHC H-2K(d)-encoded molecule (MHCp) were studied by surface plasmon resonance. The association time courses exhibited biphasic patterns. The fast and dominant phase was assigned to ligand association with the major fraction of TCR molecules, whereas the slow component was attributed to the presence of traces of TCR dimers. The association rate constant derived for the fast phase, assuming a reversible, single-step reaction mechanism, was relatively slow and markedly temperature-dependent, decreasing from 7.0 x 10(3) at 25 degrees C to 1.8 x 10(2) M(-1).s(-1) at 4 degrees C. Hence, it is suggested that these observed slow rate constants are the result of unresolved elementary steps of the process. Indeed, our analysis of the kinetic data shows that the time courses of TCR-MHCp interaction fit well to two different, yet closely related mechanisms, where an induced fit or a preequilibrium of two unbound TCR conformers are operational. These mechanisms may provide a rationale for the reported conformational flexibility of the TCR and its unusual ligand recognition properties, which combine high specificity with considerable crossreactivity.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Multidelayed random walks: Theory and application to the neolithic transition in Europe

We present a model in which particles (or individuals of a biological population) disperse with a rest time between consecutive motions (or migrations) which may take several possible values from a discrete set. Particles (or individuals) may also react (or reproduce). We derive a new equation for the effective rest time T˜ of the random walk. Application to the neolithic transition in Europe makes it possible to derive more realistic theoretical values for its wavefront speed than those following from the single-delayed framework presented previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)]. The new results are consistent with the archaeological observations of this important historical process

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Investigation of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design/DARWin-ME Performance Prediction Models for Iowa Pavement Analysis and Design, 2015

The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 1-37A as a novel mechanistic-empirical procedure for the analysis and design of pavements. The MEPDG was subsequently supported by AASHTO’s DARWin-ME and most recently marketed as AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software as of February 2013. Although the core design process and computational engine have remained the same over the years, some enhancements to the pavement performance prediction models have been implemented along with other documented changes as the MEPDG transitioned to AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Preliminary studies were carried out to determine possible differences between AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, MEPDG (version 1.1), and DARWin-ME (version 1.1) performance predictions for new jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), new hot mix asphalt (HMA), and HMA over JPCP systems. Differences were indeed observed between the pavement performance predictions produced by these different software versions. Further investigation was needed to verify these differences and to evaluate whether identified local calibration factors from the latest MEPDG (version 1.1) were acceptable for use with the latest version (version 2.1.24) of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design at the time this research was conducted. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to examine AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design performance predictions using previously identified MEPDG calibration factors (through InTrans Project 11-401) and, if needed, refine the local calibration coefficients of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems using linear and nonlinear optimization procedures. A total of 130 representative sections across Iowa consisting of JPCP, new HMA, and HMA over JPCP sections were used. The local calibration results of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design are presented and compared with national and locally calibrated MEPDG models.

Elastic properties and secondary structure formation of single-stranded DNA at monovalent and divalent salt conditions

Single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) plays a major role in several biological processes. It is therefore of fundamental interest to understand how the elastic response and the formation of secondary structures are modulated by the interplay between base pairing and electrostatic interactions. Here we measure force-extension curves (FECs) of ssDNA molecules in optical tweezers set up over two orders of magnitude of monovalent and divalent salt conditions, and obtain its elastic parameters by fitting the FECs to semiflexible models of polymers. For both monovalent and divalent salts, we find that the electrostatic contribution to the persistence length is proportional to the Debye screening length, varying as the inverse of the square root of cation concentration. The intrinsic persistence length is equal to 0.7 nm for both types of salts, and the effectivity of divalent cations in screening electrostatic interactions appears to be 100-fold as compared with monovalent salt, in line with what has been recently reported for single-stranded RNA. Finally, we propose an analysis of the FECs using a model that accounts for the effective thickness of the filament at low salt condition and a simple phenomenological description that quantifies the formation of non-specific secondary structure at low forces.

Reconciling phonological neighborhood effects in speech production through single trial analysis

A crucial step for understanding how lexical knowledge is represented is to describe the relative similarity of lexical items, and how it influences language processing. Previous studies of the effects of form similarity on word production have reported conflicting results, notably within and across languages. The aim of the present study was to clarify this empirical issue to provide specific constraints for theoretical models of language production. We investigated the role of phonological neighborhood density in a large-scale picture naming experiment using fine-grained statistical models. The results showed that increasing phonological neighborhood density has a detrimental effect on naming latencies, and re-analyses of independently obtained data sets provide supplementary evidence for this effect. Finally, we reviewed a large body of evidence concerning phonological neighborhood density effects in word production, and discussed the occurrence of facilitatory and inhibitory effects in accuracy measures. The overall pattern shows that phonological neighborhood generates two opposite forces, one facilitatory and one inhibitory. In cases where speech production is disrupted (e.g. certain aphasic symptoms), the facilitatory component may emerge, but inhibitory processes dominate in efficient naming by healthy speakers. These findings are difficult to accommodate in terms of monitoring processes, but can be explained within interactive activation accounts combining phonological facilitation and lexical competition.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Analysis of Industrial Granular Flow Applications by Using Advanced Collision Models

Granular flow phenomena are frequently encountered in the design of process and industrial plants in the traditional fields of the chemical, nuclear and oil industries as well as in other activities such as food and materials handling. Multi-phase flow is one important branch of the granular flow. Granular materials have unusual kinds of behavior compared to normal materials, either solids or fluids. Although some of the characteristics are still not well-known yet, one thing is confirmed: the particle-particle interaction plays a key role in the dynamics of granular materials, especially for dense granular materials. At the beginning of this thesis, detailed illustration of developing two models for describing the interaction based on the results of finite-element simulation, dimension analysis and numerical simulation is presented. The first model is used to describing the normal collision of viscoelastic particles. Based on some existent models, more parameters are added to this model, which make the model predict the experimental results more accurately. The second model is used for oblique collision, which include the effects from tangential velocity, angular velocity and surface friction based on Coulomb's law. The theoretical predictions of this model are in agreement with those by finite-element simulation. I n the latter chapters of this thesis, the models are used to predict industrial granular flow and the agreement between the simulations and experiments also shows the validation of the new model. The first case presents the simulation of granular flow passing over a circular obstacle. The simulations successfully predict the existence of a parabolic steady layer and show how the characteristics of the particles, such as coefficients of restitution and surface friction affect the separation results. The second case is a spinning container filled with granular material. Employing the previous models, the simulation could also reproduce experimentally observed phenomena, such as a depression in the center of a high frequency rotation. The third application is about gas-solid mixed flow in a vertically vibrated device. Gas phase motion is added to coherence with the particle motion. The governing equations of the gas phase are solved by using the Large eddy simulation (LES) and particle motion is predicted by using the Lagrangian method. The simulation predicted some pattern formation reported by experiment.

Software Process Modeling with Eclipse Process Framework

The software development industry is constantly evolving. The rise of the agile methodologies in the late 1990s, and new development tools and technologies require growing attention for everybody working within this industry. The organizations have, however, had a mixture of various processes and different process languages since a standard software development process language has not been available. A promising process meta-model called Software & Systems Process Engineering Meta- Model (SPEM) 2.0 has been released recently. This is applied by tools such as Eclipse Process Framework Composer, which is designed for implementing and maintaining processes and method content. Its aim is to support a broad variety of project types and development styles. This thesis presents the concepts of software processes, models, traditional and agile approaches, method engineering, and software process improvement. Some of the most well-known methodologies (RUP, OpenUP, OpenMethod, XP and Scrum) are also introduced with a comparison provided between them. The main focus is on the Eclipse Process Framework and SPEM 2.0, their capabilities, usage and modeling. As a proof of concept, I present a case study of modeling OpenMethod with EPF Composer and SPEM 2.0. The results show that the new meta-model and tool have made it possible to easily manage method content, publish versions with customized content, and connect project tools (such as MS Project) with the process content. The software process modeling also acts as a process improvement activity.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Kansainvälinen markkinavalinta ohjelmistoalan mikroyrityksessä

Tutkielman tutkimusongelmana on, miten kansainvälinen kohdemarkkinoiden valinta pitäisi suorittaa ohjelmistoalan mikroyrityksessä. Tutkielma on kvalitatiivinen, yksittäinen tapaustutkimus. Teoriaosassa tutkimusongelmaa lähestytään tarkastelemalla kirjallisuutta, joka käsittelee kansainväliseen kohdemarkkinavalintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä sekä olemassa olevia markkinavalintamalleja. Vanhojen mallien pohjalta kehitetään uusi käytännönläheinen ohjelmistoalan mikroyritykselle sopiva maavalintamalli. Kehitetty maavalintamalli koostuu eri vaiheista, joita ovat 1) sisäisten tekijöiden kartoittaminen, 2) alkukarsinta, 3) yrityksen kilpailukyvyn ja markkinoiden houkuttelevuuden mittaaminen matriisin avulla. Kehitettyä mallia sovelletaan tapausyritykseen tekemällä kansainvälinen markkinavalinta perustuen työpöytätutkimukseen, jossa käytetään Internetistä saatavaa sekundääridataa ja markkinatietoa. Työn lopussa esitetään markkinavalinnan tulokset ja toimenpidesuositukset yrityksen johdolle. Tutkimus osoittaa, että resurssipulasta huolimatta systemaattinen ja loogisesti etenevä maavalintaprosessi on mahdollista toteuttaa myös mikroyrityksessä. Ennalta määrätyt numeeriset rajat valintakriteereille mahdollistavat markkinoiden tarkastelun objektiivisuuden. Suurimpana haasteena ohjelmistoalan mikroyrityksen kansainvälisessä kohdemarkkinavalinnassa on yrityksen kilpailukyvyn mittaaminen eri markkinoilla. Tämäjohtuu osin ohjelmistoalan dynaamisesta luonteesta sekä kilpailija-analyysien subjektiivisuudesta.

Modeling of non-isothermalvapor membrane separation with thermodynamic models and generalized mass transfer equations

A rigorous unit operation model is developed for vapor membrane separation. The new model is able to describe temperature, pressure, and concentration dependent permeation as wellreal fluid effects in vapor and gas separation with hydrocarbon selective rubbery polymeric membranes. The permeation through the membrane is described by a separate treatment of sorption and diffusion within the membrane. The chemical engineering thermodynamics is used to describe the equilibrium sorption of vapors and gases in rubbery membranes with equation of state models for polymeric systems. Also a new modification of the UNIFAC model is proposed for this purpose. Various thermodynamic models are extensively compared in order to verify the models' ability to predict and correlate experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data. The penetrant transport through the selective layer of the membrane is described with the generalized Maxwell-Stefan equations, which are able to account for thebulk flux contribution as well as the diffusive coupling effect. A method is described to compute and correlate binary penetrant¿membrane diffusion coefficients from the experimental permeability coefficients at different temperatures and pressures. A fluid flow model for spiral-wound modules is derived from the conservation equation of mass, momentum, and energy. The conservation equations are presented in a discretized form by using the control volume approach. A combination of the permeation model and the fluid flow model yields the desired rigorous model for vapor membrane separation. The model is implemented into an inhouse process simulator and so vapor membrane separation may be evaluated as an integralpart of a process flowsheet.

Mobile Communications within the European Union: The Role of Location in the Evolution and Forecasting of the Diffusion Process

In the European Union, the importance of mobile communications was realized early on. The process of mobile communications becoming ubiquitous has taken time, as the innovation of mobile communications diffused into the society. The aim of this study is to find out how the evolution and spatial patterns of the diffusion of mobile communications within the European Union could be taken into account in forecasting the diffusion process. There is relatively lot of research of innovation diffusion on the individual (micro) andthe country (macro) level, if compared to the territorial level. Territorial orspatial diffusion refers either to the intra-country or inter-country diffusionof an innovation. In both settings, the dif- fusion of a technological innovation has gained scarce attention. This study adds knowledge of the diffusion between countries, focusing especially on the role of location in this process. The main findings of the study are the following: The penetration rates of the European Union member countries have become more even in the period of observation, from the year 1981 to 2000. The common digital GSM system seems to have hastened this process. As to the role of location in the diffusion process, neighboring countries have had similar diffusion processes. They can be grouped into three, the Nordic countries, the central and southern European countries, and the remote southern European countries. The neighborhood effect is also domi- nating in thegravity model which is used for modeling the adoption timing of the countries. The subsequent diffusion within a country, measured by the logistic model in Finland, is af- fected positively by its economic situation, and it seems to level off at some 92 %. Considering the launch of future mobile communications systemsusing a common standard should implicate an equal development between the countries. The launching time should be carefully selected as the diffusion is probably delayed in economic downturns. The location of a country, measured by distance, can be used in forecasting the adoption and diffusion. Fi- nally, the result of penetration rates becoming more even implies that in a relatively homoge- nous set of countries, such as the European Union member countries, the estimated final pene- tration of a single country can be used for approximating the penetration of the others. The estimated eventual penetration of Finland, some 92 %, should thus also be the eventual level for all the European Union countries and for the European Union as a whole.