Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Exploring Determinants of Urban Motorcycle Accident Severity: The Case of Barcelona

Public authorities and road users alike are increasingly concerned by recent trends in road safety outcomes in Barcelona, which is the European city with the highest number of registered Powered Two-Wheel (PTW) vehicles per inhabitant,. In this study we explore the determinants of motorcycle and moped accident severity in a large urban area, drawing on Barcelona’s local police database (2002-2008). We apply non-parametric regression techniques to characterize PTW accidents and parametric methods to investigate the factors influencing their severity. Our results show that PTW accident victims are more vulnerable, showing greater degrees of accident severity, than other traffic victims. Speed violations and alcohol consumption provide the worst health outcomes. Demographic and environment-related risk factors, in addition to helmet use, play an important role in determining accident severity. Thus, this study furthers our understanding of the most vulnerable vehicle types, while our results have direct implications for local policy makers in their fight to reduce the severity of PTW accidents in large urban areas.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Scene classifier for real time road detection

L’objectiu principal del projecte és el de classificar escenes de carretera en funció del contingut de les imatges per així poder fer un desglossament sobre quin tipus de situació tenim en el moment. És important que fixem els paràmetres necessaris en funció de l’escenari en què ens trobem per tal de treure el màxim rendiment possible a cada un dels algoritmes. La seva funcionalitat doncs, ha de ser la d’avís i suport davant els diferents escenaris de conducció. És a dir, el resultat final ha de contenir un algoritme o aplicació capaç de classificar les imatges d’entrada en diferents tipus amb la màxima eficiència espacial i temporal possible. L’algoritme haurà de classificar les imatges en diferents escenaris. Els algoritmes hauran de ser parametritzables i fàcilment manejables per l’usuari. L’eina utilitzada per aconseguir aquests objectius serà el MATLAB amb les toolboxs de visió i xarxes neuronals instal·lades.

A concentric analysis of the impact of urbanization on the threatened European tree frog in an agricultural landscape

Pond-breeding amphibians are affected by site-specific factors and regional and landscape-scale patterns of land use. Recent anthropogenic landscape modifications (drainage, agriculture intensification, larger road networks, and increased traffic) affect species by reducing the suitable habitat area and fragmenting remaining populations. Using a robust concentric approach based on permutation tests, we evaluated the impact of recent landscape changes on the presence of the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea.) in wetlands. We analyzed the frequency of 1 traffic and 14 land-use indices at 20 circular ranges (from 100-m up to 2-km radii) around 76 ponds identified in western Switzerland. Urban areas and road surfaces had a strong adverse effect on tree frog presence even at relatively great distances (from 100 m up to 1 km). When traffic measurements were considered instead of road surfaces, the effect increased, suggesting a negative impact due to a vehicle-induced effect. Altogether, our results indicate that urbanization and traffic must be taken into account when pond creation is an option in conservation management plans, as is the case for the European tree frog in western Switzerland. We conclude that our easy-to-use and robust concentric method of analysis can successfully assist managers in identifying potential sites for pond creation, where probability of the presence of tree frogs is maximized.

IPH response to DOE Consultation 'Preparing a Road Safety Strategy for Northern Ireland 2010-20'

The Department of Environment (NI)  recently held a consultation on preparing a new road safety strategy for Northern Ireland which will cover the years 2010 to 2020.  The consultation ran from 16 March 2010 to 15 June 2010.  The consultation paper outlined key challenges to be addressed over the lifetime of the strategy and proposed a number of action measures which have been agreed by the statutory road safety partners.  Views were invited on preparing a new road safety strategy for Northern Ireland that will shape the way ahead for safety on roads over the next decade.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Department of Health and Children Consolidated Salary Scales - Clause 2.31 of the Haddington Road Agreement

CONSOLIDATED SALARY SCALES IN ACCORDANCE WITH CLAUSE 2.31 OF THE HADDINGTON ROAD AGREEMENT These scales must be read in conjunction with Department of Health Circular 3/2014 With reference to Clause 2.31 of the Haddington Road Agreement (HRA) which addresses the remuneration of new entrant grades who entered the Public Service on or after 1 January 2011 and were subject to Department of Health Circular 2/2011 dated 24 March 2011.   New entrants to health sector recruitment grades, who were subject to the 2011 reduced pay rates will be assimilated to the revised/merged incremental payscale as and from 1 November 2013. Download the document here

The Road to Recovery: A New Approach to Tackling Scotland's Drug Problem

The Scottish National Drugs Strategy requires the 22 regional Drug Action Teams to prepare and submit to the Scottish Executive annual action plans for tackling drug misuse in their areas. These plans should address national and local priorities, including their contribution to the achievement of national targets. These comprise three parts: Part A provides an overview of the DAT structures and working; Part B provides detailed information on current local services and Part C reports plans for 2003/04.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Postmortem findings in bone cement implantation syndrome-related deaths.

Several mechanisms have been postulated as potentially involved in life-threatening complications during cemented surgery. In this study, we evaluated the role of anaphylaxis and pulmonary fat embolism in the pathophysiology of bone cement implantation syndrome in a series of fatal cases that underwent medicolegal investigations. Postmortem findings in these cases were compared with those obtained from individuals who died after other injuries and/or interventions and in which activated mast cells and pulmonary fat embolism were involved in the pathogenesis of death. Fifty subjects were selected including 6 individuals who had undergone cemented total hip arthroplasty and died intraoperatively, 32 subjects who died shortly after being involved in traffic accidents, 8 individuals who died shortly after the injection of contrast material, and 4 subjects who had undergone orthopedic surgery and died postoperatively. Massive pulmonary fat embolism was determined to be the cause of death in all the 6 subjects who died intraoperatively as well as the main cause of death in traffic-road victims with rapid respiratory function deterioration. Mast cell activation was identified exclusively in the group of subjects who died shortly after contrast material administration. Massive pulmonary fat embolism appears to be the most important factor responsible for severe cardiorespiratory function deterioration during cemented arthroplasty. Cardiac comorbidities can also significantly influence the severity of intraoperative complications, thus corroborating the hypothesis of a multifactorial model in the pathogenesis of bone cement implantation syndrome.

The high road and the low road: trafficking choices in plants.

Polar transport of the signaling molecule auxin is critical for plant development and depends on both the polar distribution of auxin efflux carriers, which pump auxin out of the cell and the alignment of these polarized cells. Two papers in this issue of Cell (Michniewicz et al., 2007; Jaillais et al., 2007) address how polar transport of these carriers occurs and describe the endosomal pathways involved.

Resource dimensioning aspect of heterogeneous traffic with different service requirements: Integration versus segregation

In this paper, we consider the ATM networks in which the virtual path concept is implemented. The question of how to multiplex two or more diverse traffic classes while providing different quality of service requirements is a very complicated open problem. Two distinct options are available: integration and segregation. In an integration approach all the traffic from different connections are multiplexed onto one VP. This implies that the most restrictive QOS requirements must be applied to all services. Therefore, link utilization will be decreased because unnecessarily stringent QOS is provided to all connections. With the segregation approach the problem can be much simplified if different types of traffic are separated by assigning a VP with dedicated resources (buffers and links). Therefore, resources may not be efficiently utilized because no sharing of bandwidth can take place across the VP. The probability that the bandwidth required by the accepted connections exceeds the capacity of the link is evaluated with the probability of congestion (PC). Since the PC can be expressed as the CLP, we shall simply carry out bandwidth allocation using the PC. We first focus on the influence of some parameters (CLP, bit rate and burstiness) on the capacity required by a VP supporting a single traffic class using the new convolution approach. Numerical results are presented both to compare the required capacity and to observe which conditions under each approach are preferred

Be fit or be sick: peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors are down the road.

Investigating metabolism by unveiling the functions of the nuclear receptors peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) in the numerous intricate pathways ensuring energy homeostasis and fitness has been extremely rewarding. Major lines of research were initially determined by the first-characterized crucial roles of PPARalpha in fatty oxidation and of PPARgamma in adipocyte differentiation and lipid storage. Today, the molecular bases of the functional links between glucose, lipid, and protein metabolism, under the important but nonexclusive control of PPARalpha and PPARgamma, are starting to be uncovered. In addition, in the last couple of years evidence has been provided for an important role of PPARbeta (delta) in lipid metabolism. Inevitably, such actors of metabolic homeostasis are implicated in the physiopathology of complex metabolic disorders, such as those constituting the metabolic syndrome, resulting in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases. This review presents a summary of the recent findings on their dual involvement in health and disease.

A new approach to real time traffic sign recognition based on colour information

The automatic interpretation of conventional traffic signs is very complex and time consuming. The paper concerns an automatic warning system for driving assistance. It does not interpret the standard traffic signs on the roadside; the proposal is to incorporate into the existing signs another type of traffic sign whose information will be more easily interpreted by a processor. The type of information to be added is profuse and therefore the most important object is the robustness of the system. The basic proposal of this new philosophy is that the co-pilot system for automatic warning and driving assistance can interpret with greater ease the information contained in the new sign, whilst the human driver only has to interpret the "classic" sign. One of the codings that has been tested with good results and which seems to us easy to implement is that which has a rectangular shape and 4 vertical bars of different colours. The size of these signs is equivalent to the size of the conventional signs (approximately 0.4 m2). The colour information from the sign can be easily interpreted by the proposed processor and the interpretation is much easier and quicker than the information shown by the pictographs of the classic signs

Sorting mechanisms regulating membrane protein traffic in the apical transcytotic pathway of polarized MDCK cells.

The transcytotic pathway followed by the polymeric IgA receptor (pIgR) carrying its bound ligand (dIgA) from the basolateral to the apical surface of polarized MDCK cells has been mapped using morphological tracers. At 20 degreesC dIgA-pIgR internalize to interconnected groups of vacuoles and tubules that comprise the endosomal compartment and in which they codistribute with internalized transferrin receptors (TR) and epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR). Upon transfer to 37 degreesC the endosome vacuoles develop long tubules that give rise to a distinctive population of 100-nm-diam cup-shaped vesicles containing pIgR. At the same time, the endosome gives rise to multivesicular endosomes (MVB) enriched in EGFR and to 60-nm-diam basolateral vesicles. The cup-shaped vesicles carry the dIgA/pIgR complexes to the apical surface where they exocytose. Using video microscopy and correlative electron microscopy to study cells grown thin and flat we show that endosome vacuoles tubulate in response to dIgA/pIgR but that the tubules contain TR as well as pIgR. However, we show that TR are removed from these dIgA-induced tubules via clathrin-coated buds and, as a result, the cup-shaped vesicles to which the tubules give rise become enriched in dIgA/pIgR. Taken together with the published information available on pIgR trafficking signals, our observations suggest that the steady-state concentrations of TR and unoccupied pIgR on the basolateral surface of polarized MDCK cells are maintained by a signal-dependent, clathrin-based sorting mechanism that operates along the length of the transcytotic pathway. We propose that the differential sorting of occupied receptors within the MDCK endosome is achieved by this clathrin-based mechanism continuously retrieving receptors like TR from the pathways that deliver pIgR to the apical surface and EGFR to the lysosome.