Role of solids in heavy metals build-up on urban road surfaces

Solids are widely identified as a carrier of harmful pollutants in stormwater runoff exerting a significant risk to receiving waters. This paper outlines the findings of an in-depth investigation on heavy metal adsorption to solids surfaces. Pollutant build-up samples collected from sixteen road sites in residential, industrial and commercial land uses were separated into four particle size ranges and analysed for a range of physico-chemical parameters and nine heavy metals including Iron (Fe), Aluminum (Al), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Manganese (Mn), Nickel (Ni) and Copper (Cu). High specific surface area (SSA) and total organic carbon (TOC) content in finer particle size ranges was noted, thus confirming strong correlations with heavy metals. Based on their physico-chemical characteristics, two different types of solids originating from traffic and soil sources were identified. Solids generated by traffic were associated with high loads of heavy metals such as Cd and Cr with strong correlation with SSA. This suggested the existence of surface dependent bonds such as cation exchange between heavy metals and solids. In contrast, Fe, Al and Mn which can be attributed to soil inputs showed strong correlation with TOC suggesting strong bonds such as chemsorption. Zn was found to be primarily attached to solids by bonding with the oxides of Fe, Al and Mn. The data analysis also confirmed the predominance of the finer fraction, with 70% of the solids being finer than 150 µm and containing 60% of the heavy metal pollutant load.

Unwrapping an Egyptian mummy

It is difficult to get school and university students interested in physics. Many students place physics in the ‘too hard basket’. In many cases this is because physics is perceived to contain a lot of mathematics, which many students also find hard. Another barrier to the study of physics is that there is no easily identifiable career as a physicist, as for example there is for a chemist, engineer, nurse, lawyer, doctor, dentist etc. Physics touches many aspects of life. All electronic equipment, phones, computers etc contain semiconductor chips that were developed by physicists. A result of this very diverse application of physics is that physicist end up working all over the place. For example, physicists end up in private and government research laboratories, as teachers in schools and as medical physicists in hospitals.

Challenges of Measuring Learning Outcomes for Property Students Engaged in Work Integrated Learning

Work integrated learning (WIL) or professional practice units are recognised as providing learning experiences that help students make successful transitions to professional practice. These units require students to engage in learning in the workplace; to reflect on this learning; and to integrate it with learning at university. However, an analysis of a recent cohort of property economics students at a large urban university provides evidence that there is great variation in work based learning experiences undertaken and that this impacts on students’capacity to respond to assessment tasks which involve critiquing these experiences in the form of reflective reports. This paper highlights the need to recognise the diversity of work based experiences; the impact this has on learning outcomes; and to find more effective and equitable ways of measuring these outcomes. The paper briefly discusses assessing learning outcomes in WIL and then describes the model of WIL in the Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The paper elaborates on the diversity of students’ experiences and backgrounds including variations in the length of work experience, placement opportunities and conditions of employment.For example, the analysis shows that students with limited work experience often have difficulty critiquing this work experience and producing high level reflective reports. On the other hand students with extensive, discipline relevant work experience can be frustrated by assessment requirements that do not take their experience into account. Added to this the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has restricted both part time and full time placement opportunities for some students. These factors affect students’ capacity to a) secure a relevant work experience, b) reflect critically on the work experiences and c) appreciate the impact the overall experience can have on their learning outcomes and future professional opportunities. Our investigation highlights some of the challenges faced in implementing effective and equitable approaches across diverse student cohorts. We suggest that increased flexibility in assessment requirements and increased feedback from industry may help address these challenges.

Non-invasive method for detecting changes in soil moisture using wireless sensor networks

There are several popular soil moisture measurement methods today such as time domain reflectometry, electromagnetic (EM) wave, electrical and acoustic methods. Significant studies have been dedicated in developing method of measurements using those concepts, especially to achieve the characteristics of noninvasiveness. EM wave method provides an advantage because it is non-invasive to the soil and does not need to utilise probes to penetrate or bury in the soil. But some EM methods are also too complex, expensive, and not portable for the application of Wireless Sensor Networks; for example satellites or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) based sensors. This research proposes a method in detecting changes in soil moisture using soil-reflected electromagnetic (SREM) wave from Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). Studies have shown that different levels of soil moisture will affects soil’s dielectric properties, such as relative permittivity and conductivity, and in turns change its reflection coefficients. The SREM wave method uses a transmitter adjacent to a WSNs node with purpose exclusively to transmit wireless signals that will be reflected by the soil. The strength from the reflected signal that is determined by the soil’s reflection coefficients is used to differentiate the level of soil moisture. The novel nature of this method comes from using WSNs communication signals to perform soil moisture estimation without the need of external sensors or invasive equipment. This innovative method is non-invasive, low cost and simple to set up. There are three locations at Brisbane, Australia chosen as the experiment’s location. The soil type in these locations contains 10–20% clay according to the Australian Soil Resource Information System. Six approximate levels of soil moisture (8, 10, 13, 15, 18 and 20%) are measured at each location; with each measurement consisting of 200 data. In total 3600 measurements are completed in this research, which is sufficient to achieve the research objective, assessing and proving the concept of SREM wave method. These results are compared with reference data from similar soil type to prove the concept. A fourth degree polynomial analysis is used to generate an equation to estimate soil moisture from received signal strength as recorded by using the SREM wave method.

Achieving quality improvement in the mask manufacturing industry by using Six Sigma technique

The Six Sigma technique is one of the quality management strategies and is utilised for improving the quality and productivity in the manufacturing process. It is inspired by the two major project methodologies of Deming’s "Plan – Do – Check – Act (PDCA)" Cycle which consists of DMAIC and DMADV. Those two methodologies are comprised of five phases. The DMAIC project methodology will be comprehensively used in this research. In brief, DMAIC is utilised for improving the existing manufacturing process and it involves the phases Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, and Control. Mask industry has become a significant industry in today’s society since the outbreak of some serious diseases such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), bird flu, influenza, swine flu and hay fever. Protecting the respiratory system, then, has become the fundamental requirement for preventing respiratory deceases. Mask is the most appropriate and protective product inasmuch as it is effective in protecting the respiratory tract and resisting the virus infection through air. In order to satisfy various customers’ requirements, thousands of mask products are designed in the market. Moreover, masks are also widely used in industries including medical industries, semi-conductor industries, food industries, traditional manufacturing, and metal industries. Notwithstanding the quality of masks have become the prioritisations since they are used to prevent dangerous diseases and safeguard people, the quality improvement technique are of very high significance in mask industry. The purpose of this research project is firstly to investigate the current quality control practices in a mask industry, then, to explore the feasibility of using Six Sigma technique in that industry, and finally, to implement the Six Sigma technique in the case company to develop and evaluate the product quality process. This research mainly investigates the quality problems of musk industry and effectiveness of six sigma technique in musk industry with the United Excel Enterprise Corporation (UEE) Company as a case company. The DMAIC project methodology in the Six Sigma technique is adopted and developed in this research. This research makes significant contribution to knowledge. The main results contribute to the discovering the root causes of quality problems in a mask industry. Secondly, the company was able to increase not only acceptance rate but quality level by utilising the Six Sigma technique. Hence, utilising the Six Sigma technique could increase the production capacity of the company. Third, the Six Sigma technique is necessary to be extensively modified to improve the quality control in the mask industry. The impact of the Six Sigma technique on the overall performance in the business organisation should be further explored in future research.

Group dynamics and software engineering

This paper reports on an experiment that was conducted to determine the extent to which group dynamics impacts on the effectiveness of software development teams. The experiment was conducted on software engineering project students at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT).

Eliciting metacognitive experiences and reflection in a year 11 chemistry classroom : an activity theory perspective

Concerns regarding students' learning and reasoning in chemistry classrooms are well documented. Students' reasoning in chemistry should be characterized by conscious consideration of chemical phenomenon from laboratory work at macroscopic, molecular/sub-micro and symbolic levels. Further, students should develop metacognition in relation to such ways of reasoning about chemistry phenomena. Classroom change eliciting metacognitive experiences and metacognitive reflection is necessary to shift entrenched views of teaching and learning in students. In this study, Activity Theory is used as the framework for intepreting changes to the rules/customs and tools of the activity systems of two different classes of students taught by the same teacher, Frances, who was teaching chemical equilibrium to those classes in consecutive years. An interpretive methodolgy involving multiple data sources was employed. Frances explicitly changed her pedagogy in the second year to direct students attention to increasingly consider chemical phenomena at the molecular/sub-micro level. Additonally, she asked students not to use the textbook until toward the end of the equilibrium unit and sought to engage them in using their prior knowledge of chemistry to understand their observations from experiments. Frances' changed pedagogy elicited metacognitive experiences and reflection in students and challenged them to reconsider their metacognitive beliefs about learning chemistry and how it might be achieved. While teacher change is essential for science education reform, students are not passive players in the change efforts and they need to be convinced of the viability of teacher pedagogical change in the context of their goals, intentions, and beliefs.

Taxonomy for rainfall events based on pollutant wash-off potential in urban areas

Conventional rainfall classification for modelling and prediction is quantity based. This approach can lead to inaccuracies in stormwater quality modelling due to the assignment of stochastic pollutant parameters to a rainfall event. A taxonomy for natural rainfall events in the context of stormwater quality is presented based on an in-depth investigation of the influence of rainfall characteristics on stormwater quality. In the research study, the natural rainfall events were classified into three types based on average rainfall intensity and rainfall duration and the classification was found to be independent of the catchment characteristics. The proposed taxonomy provides an innovative concept in stormwater quality modelling and prediction and will contribute to enhancing treatment design for stormwater quality mitigation.

Assessing of circuit breaker restrike risks using computer simulation and wavelet analysis

A breaker restrike is an abnormal arcing phenomenon, leading to a possible breaker failure. Eventually, this failure leads to interruption of the transmission and distribution of the electricity supply system until the breaker is replaced. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks in power systems. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method and a restrike hardware detection algorithm were developed by M.S. Ramli and B. Kasztenny. However, the limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current restrike detection methods and algorithms require the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and high voltage dividers. A restrike switch model using Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Wavelet Transforms which support diagnostics are proposed. Restrike phenomena become a new diagnostic process using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms for online interrupter monitoring. This research project investigates the restrike switch model Parameter „A. dielectric voltage gradient related to a normal and slowed case of the contact opening velocity and the escalation voltages, which can be used as a diagnostic tool for a vacuum circuit-breaker (CB) at service voltages between 11 kV and 63 kV. During current interruption of an inductive load at current quenching or chopping, a transient voltage is developed across the contact gap. The dielectric strength of the gap should rise to a point to withstand this transient voltage. If it does not, the gap will flash over, resulting in a restrike. A straight line is fitted through the voltage points at flashover of the contact gap. This is the point at which the gap voltage has reached a value that exceeds the dielectric strength of the gap. This research shows that a change in opening contact velocity of the vacuum CB produces a corresponding change in the slope of the gap escalation voltage envelope. To investigate the diagnostic process, an ATP restrike switch model was modified with contact opening velocity computation for restrike waveform signature analyses along with experimental investigations. This also enhanced a mathematical CB model with the empirical dielectric model for SF6 (sulphur hexa-fluoride) CBs at service voltages above 63 kV and a generalised dielectric curve model for 12 kV CBs. A CB restrike can be predicted if there is a similar type of restrike waveform signatures for measured and simulated waveforms. The restrike switch model applications are used for: computer simulations as virtual experiments, including predicting breaker restrikes; estimating the interrupter remaining life of SF6 puffer CBs; checking system stresses; assessing point-on-wave (POW) operations; and for a restrike detection algorithm development using Wavelet Transforms. A simulated high frequency nozzle current magnitude was applied to an Equation (derived from the literature) which can calculate the life extension of the interrupter of a SF6 high voltage CB. The restrike waveform signatures for a medium and high voltage CB identify its possible failure mechanism such as delayed opening, degraded dielectric strength and improper contact travel. The simulated and measured restrike waveform signatures are analysed using Matlab software for automatic detection. Experimental investigation of a 12 kV vacuum CB diagnostic was carried out for the parameter determination and a passive antenna calibration was also successfully developed with applications for field implementation. The degradation features were also evaluated with a predictive interpretation technique from the experiments, and the subsequent simulation indicates that the drop in voltage related to the slow opening velocity mechanism measurement to give a degree of contact degradation. A predictive interpretation technique is a computer modeling for assessing switching device performance, which allows one to vary a single parameter at a time; this is often difficult to do experimentally because of the variable contact opening velocity. The significance of this thesis outcome is that it is a non-intrusive method developed using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms to predict and interpret a breaker restrike risk. The measurements on high voltage circuit-breakers can identify degradation that can interrupt the distribution and transmission of an electricity supply system. It is hoped that the techniques for the monitoring of restrike phenomena developed by this research will form part of a diagnostic process that will be valuable for detecting breaker stresses relating to the interrupter lifetime. Suggestions for future research, including a field implementation proposal to validate the restrike switch model for ATP system studies and the hot dielectric strength curve model for SF6 CBs, are given in Appendix A.

Removal of toxic metals in a multi metal system using sorbents for potential application to urban stormwater treatment

In the context of increasing demand for potable water and the depletion of water resources, stormwater is a logical alternative. However, stormwater contains pollutants, among which metals are of particular interest due to their toxicity and persistence in the environment. Hence, it is imperative to remove toxic metals in stormwater to the levels prescribed by drinking water guidelines for potable use. Consequently, various techniques have been proposed, among which sorption using low cost sorbents is economically viable and environmentally benign in comparison to other techniques. However, sorbents show affinity towards certain toxic metals, which results in poor removal of other toxic metals. It was hypothesised in this study that a mixture of sorbents that have different metal affinity patterns can be used for the efficient removal of a range of toxic metals commonly found in stormwater. The performance of six sorbents in the sorption of Al, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn and Cd, which are the toxic metals commonly found in urban stormwater, was investigated to select suitable sorbents for creating the mixtures. For this purpose, a multi criteria analytical protocol was developed using the decision making methods: PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) and GAIA (Graphical Analysis for Interactive Assistance). Zeolite and seaweed were selected for the creation of trial mixtures based on their metal affinity pattern and the performance on predetermined selection criteria. The metal sorption mechanisms employed by seaweed and zeolite were defined using kinetics, isotherm and thermodynamics parameters, which were determined using the batch sorption experiments. Additionally, the kinetics rate-limiting steps were identified using an innovative approach using GAIA and Spearman correlation techniques developed as part of the study, to overcome the limitation in conventional graphical methods in predicting the degree of contribution of each kinetics step in limiting the overall metal removal rate. The sorption kinetics of zeolite was found to be primarily limited by intraparticle diffusion followed by the sorption reaction steps, which were governed mainly by the hydrated ionic diameter of metals. The isotherm study indicated that the metal sorption mechanism of zeolite was primarily of a physical nature. The thermodynamics study confirmed that the energetically favourable nature of sorption increased in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Ni < Pb < Cr < Al, which is in agreement with metal sorption affinity of zeolite. Hence, sorption thermodynamics has an influence on the metal sorption affinity of zeolite. On the other hand, the primary kinetics rate-limiting step of seaweed was the sorption reaction process followed by intraparticle diffusion. The boundary layer diffusion was also found to limit the metal sorption kinetics at low concentration. According to the sorption isotherm study, Cd, Pb, Cr and Al were sorbed by seaweed via ion exchange, whilst sorption of Ni occurred via physisorption. Furthermore, ionic bonding is responsible for the sorption of Zn. The thermodynamics study confirmed that sorption by seaweed was energetically favourable in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Cr . Al < Pb < Ni. However, this did not agree with the affinity series derived for seaweed suggesting a limited influence of sorption thermodynamics on metal affinity for seaweed. The investigation of zeolite-seaweed mixtures indicated that mixing sorbents have an effect on the kinetics rates and the sorption affinity. Additionally, the theoretical relationships were derived to predict the boundary layer diffusion rate, intraparticle diffusion rate, the sorption reaction rate and the enthalpy of mixtures based on that of individual sorbents. In general, low coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationships between theoretical and experimental data indicated that the relationships were not statistically significant. This was attributed to the heterogeneity of the properties of sorbents. Nevertheless, in relative terms, the intraparticle diffusion rate, sorption reaction rate and enthalpy of sorption had higher R2 values than the boundary layer diffusion rate suggesting that there was some relationship between the former set of parameters of mixtures and that of sorbents. The mixture, which contained 80% of zeolite and 20% of seaweed, showed similar affinity for the sorption of Cu, Ni, Cd, Cr and Al, which was attributed to approximately similar sorption enthalpy of the metal ions. Therefore, it was concluded that the seaweed-zeolite mixture can be used to obtain the same affinity for various metals present in a multi metal system provided the metal ions have similar enthalpy during sorption by the mixture.

Towards spontaneous facial expression recognition in real-world video

Facial expression is an important channel of human social communication. Facial expression recognition (FER) aims to perceive and understand emotional states of humans based on information in the face. Building robust and high performance FER systems that can work in real-world video is still a challenging task, due to the various unpredictable facial variations and complicated exterior environmental conditions, as well as the difficulty of choosing a suitable type of feature descriptor for extracting discriminative facial information. Facial variations caused by factors such as pose, age, gender, race and occlusion, can exert profound influence on the robustness, while a suitable feature descriptor largely determines the performance. Most present attention on FER has been paid to addressing variations in pose and illumination. No approach has been reported on handling face localization errors and relatively few on overcoming facial occlusions, although the significant impact of these two variations on the performance has been proved and highlighted in many previous studies. Many texture and geometric features have been previously proposed for FER. However, few comparison studies have been conducted to explore the performance differences between different features and examine the performance improvement arisen from fusion of texture and geometry, especially on data with spontaneous emotions. The majority of existing approaches are evaluated on databases with posed or induced facial expressions collected in laboratory environments, whereas little attention has been paid on recognizing naturalistic facial expressions on real-world data. This thesis investigates techniques for building robust and high performance FER systems based on a number of established feature sets. It comprises of contributions towards three main objectives: (1) Robustness to face localization errors and facial occlusions. An approach is proposed to handle face localization errors and facial occlusions using Gabor based templates. Template extraction algorithms are designed to collect a pool of local template features and template matching is then performed to covert these templates into distances, which are robust to localization errors and occlusions. (2) Improvement of performance through feature comparison, selection and fusion. A comparative framework is presented to compare the performance between different features and different feature selection algorithms, and examine the performance improvement arising from fusion of texture and geometry. The framework is evaluated for both discrete and dimensional expression recognition on spontaneous data. (3) Evaluation of performance in the context of real-world applications. A system is selected and applied into discriminating posed versus spontaneous expressions and recognizing naturalistic facial expressions. A database is collected from real-world recordings and is used to explore feature differences between standard database images and real-world images, as well as between real-world images and real-world video frames. The performance evaluations are based on the JAFFE, CK, Feedtum, NVIE, Semaine and self-collected QUT databases. The results demonstrate high robustness of the proposed approach to the simulated localization errors and occlusions. Texture and geometry have different contributions to the performance of discrete and dimensional expression recognition, as well as posed versus spontaneous emotion discrimination. These investigations provide useful insights into enhancing robustness and achieving high performance of FER systems, and putting them into real-world applications.

Determination of coastal ground and surface water processes and character by use of hydrochemistry and stable isotopes, Fraser Coast, Queensland

This study was part of an integrated project developed in response to concerns regarding current and future land practices affecting water quality within coastal catchments and adjacent marine environments. Two forested coastal catchments on the Fraser Coast, Australia, were chosen as examples of low-modification areas with similar geomorphological and land-use characteristics to many other coastal zones in southeast Queensland. For this component of the overall project, organic , physico-chemical (Eh, pH and DO), ionic (Fe2+, Fe3+), and isotopic (ä13CDIC, ä15NDIN ä34SSO4) data were used to characterise waters and identify sources and processes contributing to concentrations and form of dissolved Fe, C, N and S within the ground and surface waters of these coastal catchments. Three sites with elevated Fe concentrations are discussed in detail. These included a shallow pool with intermittent interaction with the surface water drainage system, a monitoring well within a semi-confined alluvial aquifer, and a monitoring well within the fresh/saline water mixing zone adjacent to an estuary. Conceptual models of processes occurring in these environments are presented. The primary factors influencing Fe transport were; microbial reduction of Fe3+ oxyhydroxides in groundwaters and in the hyporheic zone of surface drainage systems, organic input available for microbial reduction and Fe3+ complexation, bacterial activity for reduction and oxidation, iron curtain effects where saline/fresh water mixing occurs, and variation in redox conditions with depth in ground and surface water columns. Data indicated that groundwater seepage appears a more likely source of Fe to coastal waters (during periods of low rainfall) via tidal flux. The drainage system is ephemeral and contributes little discharge to marine waters. However, data collected during a high rainfall event indicated considerable Fe loads can be transported to the estuary mouth from the catchment.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.