Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.

Recovering the counterfactual wage distribution with selective return migration

This paper recovers the distribution of wages for Mexican-born workers living in the U.S. if no return migration of Mexican-born workers occurred. Because migrants self-select in the decision to return, the overarching problem addressed by this study is the use of an estimator that also accounts for selection on unobservables. I find that Mexican returnees are middle- to high-wage earners at all levels of educational attainment. Taking into account self-selection in return migration, wages would be approximately 7.7% higher at the median and 4.5% higher at the mean. Owing to positive self-selection, the immigrant-native wage gap would, therefore, partially close if there was no return migration.

One step forward, and two steps back: women and career progression in academia during times of uncertainty

While there is an extensive and still growing body of literature on women in academia and the challenges they encounter in career progression, there is little research on their experience specifically within a business school setting. In this study, we attempt to address this gap and examine the experiences and career development of female academics in a business school and how these are impacted by downsizing programmes. To this end, an exploratory case study is conducted. The findings of this study show that female business school academics experience numerous challenges in terms of promotion and development, networking, and the multiple and conflicting demands placed upon them. As a result, the lack of visibility seems to be a pertinent issue in terms of their career progression. Our data also demonstrates that that, paradoxically, during periods of downsizing women become more visible and thus vulnerable to layoffs as a consequence of the challenges and pressures created in their environment during this process. In this paper, we argue that this heightened visibility, and being subject to possible layoffs, further reproduces inequality regimes in academia.

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

The Effects of Different Loading Times on the Bone Response Around Dental Implants: A Histomorphometric Study in Dogs

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate, through histomorphometric analysis, the effect that different loading times would have on the bone response around implants. Materials and Methods: Three Replace Select implants were placed on each side of the mandible in eight dogs (n = 48 implants). One pair of implants was selected for an immediate loading protocol (IL). After 7 days, the second pair of implants received prostheses for an early loading protocol (EL). Fourteen days after implant placement, the third pair of implants received prostheses for advanced early loading (AEL). Following 12 weeks of prosthetics, counted following the positioning of the metallic crowns for the AEL group, the animals were sacrificed and the specimens were prepared for histomorphometric analysis. The differences between loading time in the following parameters were evaluated through analysis of variance: bone-to-implant contact, bone density, and crestal bone loss. Results: The mean percentage of bone-to-implant contact for IL was 77.9% +/- 1.71%, for EL it was 79.25% +/- 2.11%, and for AEL it was 79.42% +/- 1.49%. The mean percentage of bone density for IL was 69.97% +/- 3.81%, for EL it was 69.23% +/- 5.68%, and for AEL it was 69.19% +/- 2.90%. Mean crestal bone loss was 1.57 +/- 0.22 mm for IL, 1.23 +/- 0.19 mm for EL, and 1.17 +/- 0.32 mm for AEL. There was no statistical difference for any of the parameters evaluated (P > .05). Conclusion: Different early loading times did not seem to significantly affect the bone response around dental implants. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2010;25:473-481

Discontinuous local semiflows for Kurzweil equations leading to LaSalle`s invariance principle for differential systems with impulses at variable times

In this paper, we consider an initial value problem for a class of generalized ODEs, also known as Kurzweil equations, and we prove the existence of a local semidynamical system there. Under certain perturbation conditions, we also show that this class of generalized ODEs admits a discontinuous semiflow which we shall refer to as an impulsive semidynamical system. As a consequence, we obtain LaSalle`s invariance principle for such a class of generalized ODEs. Due to the importance of LaSalle`s invariance principle in studying stability of differential systems, we include an application to autonomous ordinary differential systems with impulse action at variable times. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

VACUUM POLARIZATION EFFECTS ON QUASINORMAL MODES IN ELECTRICALLY CHARGED BLACK HOLE SPACE-TIMES

We investigate the influence of vacuum polarization of quantum massive fields on the scalar sector of quasinormal modes in spherically symmetric black holes. We consider the evolution of a massless scalar field on the space-time corresponding to a charged semiclassical black hole, consisting of the quantum-corrected geometry of a Reissner-Nordstrom black hole dressed by a quantum massive scalar field in the large mass limit. Using a sixth order WKB approach we find a shift in the quasinormal mode frequencies due to vacuum polarization.

Effect of power densities and irradiation times on the degree of conversion and temperature increase of a microhybrid dental composite resin

The different parameters used for the photoactivation process provide changes in the degree of conversion (DC%) and temperature rise (TR) of the composite resins. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the DC (%) and TR of the microhybrid composite resin photoactivated by a new generation LED. For the KBr pellet technique, the composite resin was placed into a metallic mould (1-mm thickness and 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated as follows: continuous LED LCU with different power density values (50-1000 mW/cm(2)). The measurements for the DC (%) were made in a FTIR Spectrometer Bomen (model MB-102, Quebec-Canada). The spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra for both uncured and cured samples were analyzed using an accessory for the diffuse reflectance. The measurements were recorded in the absorbance operating under the following conditions: 32 scans, 4-cm(-1) resolution, and a 300 to 4000-cm(-1) wavelength. The percentage of unreacted carbon-carbon double bonds (% C=C) was determined from the ratio of the absorbance intensities of aliphatic C=C (peak at 1638 cm(-1)) against an internal standard before and after the curing of the specimen: aromatic C-C (peak at 1608 cm-1). For the TR, the samples were made in a metallic mould (2-mm thickness and 4-mm diameter) and photoactivated during 5, 10, and 20 s. The thermocouple was attached to the multimeter to allow the temperature readings. The DC (%) and TR were calculated by the standard technique and submitted to ANOVA and Tukey`s test (p < 0.05). The degree of conversion values varied from 35.0 (+/- 1.3) to 45.0 (+/- 2.4) for 5 s, 45.0 (+/- 1.3) to 55.0 (+/- 2.4) for 10 s, and 47.0 (+/- 1.3) to 52.0 (+/- 2.4) for 20 s. For the TR, the values ranged from 0.3 (+/- 0.01) to 5.4 (+/- 0.11)degrees C for 5 s, from 0.5 (+/- 0.02) to 9.3 (+/- 0.28)degrees C for 10 s, and from 1.0 (+/- 0.06) to 15.0 (+/- 0.95)degrees C for 20 s. The power densities and irradiation times showed a significant effect on the degree of conversion and temperature rise.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Att bli, att vara och att ha varit - om ingångar i och utgångar ur Jehovas vittnen i Sverige

Summary To become, to be and to have been: about the  Jehovah’s Witnesses The Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, in the following text referred to as the Jehovah’s Witnesses or “the organisation”, is a worldwide Christian organisation with about 6.7 million members. The organisation has many times, without any success so far, proclaimed Armageddon when they expect Jehovah to return to Earth. They interpret the Bible in their own, often very literal way, and require their members to live according to these interpretations. Among the consequences of this, members are forbidden to vote, to do military service or to receive blood transfusions. Apart from attending the three weekly meetings, members are expected to be active in missionary work, known as “publishing”. If a member fails to do a certain number of hours’ publishing, he or she risks being deprived of active membership status Sweden in general is considered to be a society where the population is not very religious. The formerly state-governed Lutheran church has lost its influence and the vast majority of ordinary Swedes do not visit church on other occasions than weddings, funerals or christenings. Expressing one’s own religious values has become somewhat of a private matter where publicity is seldom appreciated, which is contrary to the practice of the Jehovah’s Witnesses. This is one of the reasons why the Jehovah’s Witnesses are commonly perceived by average Swedes as a “suspicious” religious organisation. The aim and methods of the study This dissertation seeks to describe and investigate the entering and leaving of a highly structured and hierarchical religious community, exemplified in this case by the Jehovah’s Witnesses. What are the thoughts and aspirations of someone who is considering becoming a Jehovah’s Witness? What are the priorities and what experiences seem important when a person is going through such a process? And when this person has finally reached his or her goal of becoming a member, is it the same motivation that makes him or her stay in the organisation for longer periods of time, possibly for the rest of their lives, or does it change during the process of entering, or does this motivation change its character during the transition from entering to being a regular member? Why do some of the members change their attitude to the Jehovah’s Witnesses from rejoicing to bitterness? And how does this process of exit manifest itself? In what way is it different from the process of entry? The respondents in this study were chosen from both active members of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in Sweden and those who have left the organisation for personal reasons. Repeated interviews with ten active members of the organisation have been conducted in the course of the study and compared to equal numbers of former members. The interviews have been semi-structured to deal with questions of how a person has come into contact with the organisation; how they retrospectively experienced the process of entry; the reasons for becoming a member. Questions have also been asked about life in the organisation. The group of “exiters” have also been asked about the experience of leaving, why they wanted to leave, and how this process was started and carried out. In addition to this I have analysed a four-year diary describing the time inside and the process of leaving the organisation. This has given me an extra psychological insight into the inner experience of someone who has gone through the whole process. The analysis has been done by categorising the content of the transcribed interviews. An attempt to outline a model of an entry and exit process has been made, based on ideas and interpretations presented in the interviews. The analysis of the diary has involved thorough reading, resulting in a division of it into four different parts, where each part has been given a certain key-word, signifying the author’s emotional state when writing it. A great deal of the information about the Jehovah’s Witnesses has been collected through discussion boards on the Internet, informal talks with members and ex-members, interviews with representatives of the organisations during visits to its different offices (Bethels), such as St. Petersburg, Russia, and Brooklyn, New York, USA. The context Each organisation evolves in its own context with its own norms, roles and stories that would not survive outside it. With this as a starting point, there is a chapter dedicated to the description of the organisation’s history, structure and activities. It has been stated that the organisation’s treatment of its critical members and the strategies for recruiting new members have evolved over the years of its history. At the beginning there was an openness allowing members to be critical. As the structure of the organisation has become more rigid and formalised, the treatment of internal critics has become much less tolerated and exclusion has become a frequent option. As a rule many new members have been attracted to the organisation when (1) the day of Armageddon has been pronounced to be approaching; (2) the members of the organisation have been persecuted or threatened with persecution; and (3) the organisation has discovered a “new market”. The processes for entering and exiting How the entering processes manifest themselves depends on whether the person has been brought up in the organisation or not. A person converting as an adult has to pass six phases before being considered a Jehovah’s Witness by the organisation. These are:  Contact with the Jehovah’s Witnesses, Studying the bible with members of the organisation, Questioning, Accepting, Being active as publisher (spreading the belief), Being baptised.  For a person brought up in the organisation, the process to full membership is much shorter:   Upbringing in the organisation, Taking a stand on the belief, Being baptised. The exit process contains of seven phases:   Different levels of doubts, Testing of doubts, Turning points, Different kinds of decisions, Different steps in executing the decisions, Floating, a period of emotional and cognitive consideration of membership and its experiences, Realtive neutrality.   The process in and the process out are both slow and are accompanied with anguish and doubts. When a person is going through the process in or out of the organisation he or she experiences criticism. This is when people around the adept question the decision to continue in the process. The result of the criticism depends on where in the process the person is. If he or she is at the beginning of the process, the criticism will probably make the person insecure and the process will slow down or stop. If the criticism is pronounced in a later phase, the process will probably speed up. The norms of the organisation affect the behaviour of the members. There are techniques for inclusion that both bind members to the organisation and shield them off from the surrounding society. Examples of techniques for inclusion are the “work situation” and “closed doors”. The work situation signifies that members who do as the organisation recommends – doing simple work – often end up in the same branch of industry as many other Jehovah’s Witnesses. This often means that the person has other witnesses as workmates. If the person is unemployed or moves to another town it is easy to find a new job through connections in the organisation. Doubts and exclusions can lead to problems since they entail a risk of losing one’s job. This can also result in problems getting a new job. Jehovah’s Witnesses are not supposed to talk to excluded members, which of course mean difficulties working together. “Closed doors” means that members who do as the organisation recommends – not pursuing higher education, not engaging in civil society, working with a manual or in other way simple job, putting much time into the organisation – will, after a long life in the organisation, have problems starting a new life outside the Jehovah’s Witnesses. The language used in the organisation shows the community among the members, thus the language is one of the most important symbols. A special way of thinking is created through the language. It binds members to the organisation and sometimes it can work as a way to get back into the normative world of the organisation. Randall Collins’s (1990, 2004) thoughts about “emotional energy” have enabled an understanding of the solidarity and unity in the organisation. This also gives an understanding of the way the members treat doubting and critical members. The members who want to exit have to open up the binding/screening off. A possible way to do that is through language, to become aware of the effect the language might have. Another way is to search for emotional energy in another situation. During the exit process, shame might be of some importance. When members become aware of the shame they feel, because they perceive they are “acting a belief”, the exit process might accelerate.