Remembrance of things past:the lingering impact of history on contemporary Polish-Ukrainian relations

This article investigates the continuing influence of the past on contemporary politics in Poland and Ukraine by examining the impact of the vocal 'informed' segment of public opinion on mutual relations between the two countries. The section 'What history?' examines the question of exactly what understanding of history matters so much in Polish-Ukrainian relations. The following sections examine how history influences the present, what are the contours of public opinion on Polish-Ukrainian relations within each state, and what is the impact of shared history on the contemporary politics of Polish-Ukrainian relations. Finally, the article suggests a potentially generaliseable hypothesis for future research.

Radical or not so radical? Tactical variation in core policy formation by the Front National

Starting from a number of general tenets about radical political parties, this article examines the Front National (FN) in relation to its core policy issue of immigration. To what extent has FN immigration policy been defined from the outset by its radicalism? Has that radicalism been constant or variable over time? And how far can a reciprocal influence be detected between the FN and the center Right in immigration policy formulation? Focusing on election campaigns, manifestos, and key moments in the FN's evolution, the article assesses how the party has tailored its radicalism to contextual factors and tactical considerations. It reveals an FN less bound to a fixed policy and more ready to seek accommodation (with circumstance, public opinion, or the center Right) than is generally acknowledged. Conversely, it also assesses how the FN's mobilization of strong support on the immigration issue has had radicalizing effects on the center Right. The article concludes by considering whether the change of leadership in January 2011 might confine the FN to the radical Right or see it adopt a more center-oriented course.

On the F word:a corpus-based analysis of the media representation of feminism in British and German press discourse, 1990-2009

Research in social psychology has shown that public attitudes towards feminism are mostly based on stereotypical views linking feminism with leftist politics and lesbian orientation. It is claimed that such attitudes are due to the negative and sexualised media construction of feminism. Studies concerned with the media representation of feminism seem to confirm this tendency. While most of this research provides significant insights into the representation of feminism, the findings are often based on a small sample of texts. Also, most of the research was conducted in an Anglo-American setting. This study attempts to address some of the shortcomings of previous work by examining the discourse of feminism in a large corpus of German and British newspaper data. It does so by employing the tools of Corpus Linguistics. By investigating the collocation profiles of the search term feminism, we provide evidence of salient discourse patterns surrounding feminism in two different cultural contexts. © The Author(s) 2012.

Stretching the life of Twitter classifiers with time-stamped semantic graphs

Social media has become an effective channel for communicating both trends and public opinion on current events. However the automatic topic classification of social media content pose various challenges. Topic classification is a common technique used for automatically capturing themes that emerge from social media streams. However, such techniques are sensitive to the evolution of topics when new event-dependent vocabularies start to emerge (e.g., Crimea becoming relevant to War Conflict during the Ukraine crisis in 2014). Therefore, traditional supervised classification methods which rely on labelled data could rapidly become outdated. In this paper we propose a novel transfer learning approach to address the classification task of new data when the only available labelled data belong to a previous epoch. This approach relies on the incorporation of knowledge from DBpedia graphs. Our findings show promising results in understanding how features age, and how semantic features can support the evolution of topic classifiers.

Estimation of Fraction of Distinguished Elements in Population Based on Partially Realized Random Sample

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 62D05.

Mainstream media behavior analysis on Twitter:a case study on UK general election

With the development of social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter, mainstream media organizations including newspapers and TV media have played an active role in engaging with their audience and strengthening their influence on the recently emerged platforms. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of mainstream media on Twitter and study how they exert their influence to shape public opinion during the UK's 2010 General Election. We first propose an empirical measure to quantify mainstream media bias based on sentiment analysis and show that it correlates better with the actual political bias in the UK media than the pure quantitative measures based on media coverage of various political parties. We then compare the information diffusion patterns from different categories of sources. We found that while mainstream media is good at seeding prominent information cascades, its role in shaping public opinion is being challenged by journalists since tweets from them are more likely to be retweeted and they spread faster and have longer lifespan compared to tweets from mainstream media. Moreover, the political bias of the journalists is a good indicator of the actual election results. Copyright 2013 ACM.

Világpolitikai tendenciák 2011-ben = Global political trends in 2011

Az Amerikai Egyesült Államok – mint a világ gazdaságilag és katonailag legerősebb hatalma – hamarosan leküzdi a jelenlegi válságot és továbbra is vezető hatalom marad. Európában a főbb tennivalókat továbbra is a demográfiai helyzet, a migráció kezelése és az összeurópai intézmények kialakítása jelenti. A szovjet utódállamok etnikai feszültségekkel és demográfiai hanyatlással, továbbá az orosz befolyás erősödésével számolhatnak. A háborús térségekben a feszültség nem fog csökkenni – Irak, Afganisztán Irán, Észak-Afrika és a Közel-Kelet továbbra is a figyelem középpontjában lesz. Kína gazdasági növekedése következtében a világ második legnagyobb hatalmává léphet elő. Összességében megállapítható, hogy a világ az elmúlt években nem lett biztonságosabb és ez a tendencia folytatódik 2011-ben is. / === / The economic and political processes experienced in the world are followed by great attention not only by experts, but also by public opinion. The most important conclusions of the study are as follows: the United States – as the economically and politically strongest power in the world – will soon overcome the present crisis and preserve its leading power status. The main task in Europe will remain handling the demographic decline and migration, as well as to establish appropriate pan-European institutions. The post-Soviet successor states are facing ethnical tensions and demographic decline. In addition , they cannot resist the strengthening Russian influence. The tension in the war-zones is not expected to significantly ease, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Africa and the Middle East will remain high on the world's agenda. China – thanks to its economic growth – is going to become the second greatest power of the world. In the study we can read in detail about the development tendencies of the regions and states. To sum up, the world has not become safer at all in the past years and this tendency will continue also in 2011.

A versenyszféra teljesítményéről nemzetközi összehasonlításban

Napjaink gazdasági nehézségei miatt a közvélemény hajlandó a rendszerváltás óta eltelt időszakot teljes egészében sikertelennek minősíteni. Ez felettébb veszélyes, mert nem veszi kellőképpen figyelembe azt a jelentős fejlődést, amelyet az ország ezen időszak alatt befutott és így egy féleredmény eredménnyé fejlesztése helyett könnyen tönkre teheti mindazt, amit elértünk. A tanulmány ezt a fejlődést kívánja bemutatni nemzetközi összehasonlításban és azt a továbblépés lehetőségeinek feszegetésével értékelni. A tanulmány központi mondanivalója, hogy egy fájdalmas, de elkerülhetetlen struktúraváltáson vagyunk túl, mely egy korábbi torz fejlődést az ország jelenlegi gazdasági fejlettségének megfelelően korrigált. A múltbeli teljesítményt rontja, hogy egyoldalúan a mikrovállalkozásokra orientálódott és nem tudta a szerkezetváltás során a kis és közepes vállalatok részarányát növelni. Jelenlegi gazdasági nehézségek megoldását is részben az jelentené, ha a szerkezetváltást ebbe az irányba tudnánk vezérelni. _____ For our everyday economic difficulties the public opinion is inclined to evaluate the period that passed since the transition as totally unsuccessful. This is very dangerous because it does not take into account properly that significant development that has been achieved by the country in this period and instead to complete the achieved half results everything could be destroyed what we have positively done. The study intends to present this development in international comparison and tries to evaluate it by trying to show the possibilities of further development. The central message of the study is, that we are behind a painful, but unavoidable structural change that has corrected a former distorted development and the achieved one corresponds to the present economic development level of the country. This performance is deteriorated by the exaggerated orientation onto micro enterprises and the inability to increase the share of small and micro enterprises properly. Our present economic difficulties could be eased significantly if we could stimulate structural shifts into this direction.

The politics of professional sports facility subsidies in Florida

Political leaders in urban settings regularly confront difficult decisions over how to distribute public funds. Those decisions may be even more controversial when they involve public subsidies of professional sports facilities. Yet, state and local governments in the United States have granted billions of dollars in financial and land-based subsidies for professional sports facilities over the past two decades, raising questions about how these types of corporate welfare decisions are made by local leaders. Scholarship on urban politics and community power suggests a number of theories to explain political influence. They include elitism, pluralism, political economy and growth machines, urban regimes, coalition theory, and minority empowerment. My hypothesis is that coalition theory, a theory that argues that public policy decisions are made by shifting, ad hoc alliances within a community, best describes these subsidy decisions. ^ To test this hypothesis I employ a public policy process model and develop a framework of variables that is used to methodically examine four sports facilities funding decisions in two Florida counties between 1977 and 1998: Joe Robbie Stadium and the American Airlines Arena in Miami-Dade, and the Ice Palace Arena and the Raymond James Stadium in Hillsborough County. The framework includes six variables that permit a rigorous examination of the actors involved in the decision, their interactions, and the political environment within which they operate. The variables are formal political structure, informal sector, subsidy proponents, subsidy opponents, public policy options, and public opinion. ^ This research rests on qualitative data gathered from interviews of public and private officials involved in subsidy decisions, public records, and media reports Employing a case study analysis, I offer a rich description of the decision making process to publicly fund sports stadiums and arenas in Florida. My findings confirm that the best theory to explain decisions to subsidize sports facilities is one in which short-term, temporary coalitions are formed to accomplish policy goals. ^

Landscape of fear: A social history of the missile during the early years of the Cold War, 1950–1965

The missile's significance has been central to national security since the Soviet launching of Sputnik, and became increasingly important throughout the years of the Cold War. Much has been written about missile technology, but little has been written about how the development and deployment of this weapon affected Americans. The missile was developed to both deter war but also to win war. Its presence, however, was not always reassuring. Three areas of the United States are studied to evaluate the social implications of the missile during these pivotal years: San Francisco, home of multiple Nike installations; of Cape Canaveral, Florida, the nation's primary missile test center; the Great Plains, the location of the largest ICBM concentration in the country. Interviews were conducted, tours of facilities were taken, and local newspapers were reviewed. In conjunction with national newspapers and magazines and public opinion polls, this information provided a local social context for missile history. Nationally and locally, Americans both feared and praised the new technology. They were anxious for government funding in their cities and often felt that the danger the missile brought to their communities by making it as a Soviet target was justified in the larger cause for national security.

Illicit interest groups: The political impact of the Medellin drug trafficking organizations in Colombia

Although drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) exist and have an effect on health, crime, economies, and politics, little research has explored these entities as political organizations. Legal interest groups and movements have been found to influence domestic and international politics because they operate within legal parameters. Illicit groups, such as DTOs, have rarely been accounted for—especially in the literature on interest groups—though they play a measurable role in affecting domestic and international politics in similar ways. Using an interest group model, this dissertation analyzed DTOs as illicit interest groups (IIGs) to explain their political influence. The analysis included a study of group formation, development, and demise that examined IIG motivation, organization, and policy impact. The data for the study drew from primary and secondary sources, which include interviews with former DTO members and government officials, government documents, journalistic accounts, memoirs, and academic research. To illustrate the interest group model, the study examined Medellin-based DTO leaders, popularly known as the "Medellin Cartel." In particular, the study focused on the external factors that gave rise to DTOs in Colombia and how Medellin DTOs reacted to the implementation of counternarcotics efforts. The discussion was framed by the implementation of the 1979 Extradition Treaty negotiated between Colombia and the United States. The treaty was significant because as drug trafficking became the principal bilateral issue in the 1980s; extradition became a major method of combating the illicit drug business. The study's findings suggested that Medellin DTO leaders had a one-issue agenda and used a variety of political strategies to influence public opinion and all three branches of government—the judicial, the legislative, and the executive—in an effort to invalidate the 1979 Extradition Treaty. The changes in the life cycle of the 1979 Extradition Treaty correlated with changes in the political power of Medellin-based DTOs vis-à-vis the Colombian government, and international forces such as the U.S. government's push for tougher counternarcotics efforts.

Cuba’s Role in Venezuela’s Control of the Internet and Online Social Networks

The arrival of Cuba’s Information Technology (IT) and Communications Minister Ramiro Valdés to Venezuela in the Spring of 2010 to serve as a ‘consultant’ to the Venezuelan government awakened a new reality in that country. Rampant with deep economic troubles, escalating crime, a murder rate that has doubled since Chávez took over in 1999, and an opposition movement led by university students and other activists who use the Internet as their primary weapon, Venezuela has resorted to Cuba for help. In a country where in large part traditional media outlets have been censored or are government-controlled, the Internet and its online social networks have become the place to obtain, as well as disseminate, unfiltered information. As such, Internet growth and use of its social networks has skyrocketed in Venezuela, making it one of Latin America’s highest Web users. Because of its increased use to spark political debate among Venezuelans and publish information that differs with the official government line, Chávez has embarked on an initiative to bring the Internet to the poor and others who would otherwise not have access, by establishing government-sponsored Internet Info Centers throughout the country, to disseminate information to his followers. With the help of Cuban advisors, who for years have been a part of Venezuela’s defense, education, and health care initiatives, Chávez has apparently taken to adapting Cuba’s methodology for the control of information. He has begun to take special steps toward also controlling the type of information flowing through the country’s online social networks, considering the implementation of a government-controlled single Internet access point in Venezuela. Simultaneously, in adapting to Venezuela’s Internet reality, Chávez has engaged online by creating his own Twitter account in an attempt to influence public opinion, primarily of those who browse the Web. With a rapidly growing following that may soon reach one million subscribers, Chávez claims to have set up his own online trench to wage cyber space battle.

Cultural perceptions of space and place in the South Florida *environment

Public opinion polls in the United States reveal that a great majority of Americans are aware and show concern about ecological issues and the need to preserve natural areas. In South Florida, natural resources have been subjected to enormous strain as the pressure to accommodate a growing population has led to rapid development. Suburbs have been built on areas that were once natural wetlands and farmlands, and the impact today shows a landscape where natural places have all but disappeared. This dissertation examines the intersection between the perceptions that individuals living in the South Florida region have with respect to the natural environment and local ecological problems with where their relationship to nature takes place. ^ The research is based upon both quantitative and qualitative data. The principal methodology used in this research is the ethnographic method, which employed the data gathering techniques of in-depth interviewing and participant observation. The objective of the qualitative portion of the study was to determine how people perceive and relate to their immediate environment. The quantitative portion of the study employed telephone survey data from the FIU/Florida Poll 2000. Data collected through this survey provided the basis to statistically test responses to the research questions. ^ The findings show that people in South Florida have a general idea of the relationship between the human population and the environment but very little knowledge of how they individually affect each other. The experience of private places and public spaces in everyday life permits people to compartmentalize cultural values and understandings of the natural world in separate cognitive schemas. The appreciation of the natural world has almost no connection to their personal sense of obligation to preserve the environment. That obligation is only felt in their home space even though the South Florida environment overall struggles desperately with water shortages, land encroachment, and a rapidly expanding human population whose activities continuously aggravate an already delicate natural balance. ^

2008 Cuba/US Transition Poll

Summary of results from the 2008 Cuba Poll.

The 1993 FIU Cuba Poll

Results from the 1993 FIU Cuba Poll